RobDownSouth
No Kings
- Joined
- Apr 13, 2002
- Posts
- 77,872
I certainly hope you are correctomundo
I'm occasionally mistaken, but never "wrong".
Most economists agree with RobDownSouth, laugh at "Doom and Gloom" prediction from Wingnut Nation
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
I certainly hope you are correctomundo
"Rebound?" From nothing? What a brave prediction. Of course there will be a modest increase in the rate of non-growth.
How about predicting the point where the Obama (non)Recovery attains 1/4 of the strength of the (supposedly discredited supply-side ecomomics) Reagen Recovery?
First, there's no assurance that our Federal Reserve is more nimble than the Chinese version. In fact, the opposite is almost certainly true given that - as I stated previously - China is the world's largest producer of gold. This would give the Chinese the advantage of scale and flexibility, two things that can't be beat by any number of "USA #1 bumpers".
To use your numbers, look at all the things you own around you right now. Now imagine that they're worth 1/1,600th of what they were worth yesterday.....
....now tell me how happy you are with the prospect of your entire net worth being devalued so as to remind you of Monopoly money.
Now tell me how you're going to achieve wealth when 1/1600th of a pittance is still a pittance. Then figure out how you're going to live your life without technology because the majority of our tech is gold-based.
Now tell me you're better off for it.
Care to nut up and make a prediction for the second quarter? Do you see a continuing downturn like the chief does? Are we heading to Recession City?
I'm predicting positive growth in 2nd quarter, which means no recession. What is your prediction?
And by the way, Reagan was never hamstrung by a nihilistic opposition party who would rather see America fail than a Democratic president succeed.
You are beyond stupid. Tip O'Neal was a big fan, in your view? The "Reagen Tax cuts" were delayed two YEARS by agreement where Regen capitulated to O'Neal because he understood something in two years was better than nothing, ever. Announcing your coronation with "elections have consequences" is not exactly "working with the opposition." Unlike Regan...Obama had control of all three constituencies that it takes to get a bill through. He chose to make that about his first step towards single payer.. We are STILL operating at the vastly inflated level of government that he DID get through with the Democrats budget wise unopposed.. As I said your prediction is silly...I agreed with your ridiculously tame prediction. It will be up modestly in the next quarter ass it is every spring the modest increase will still be modest even when it will be predictably artificially inflated. That report will be revised downward a couple of months later.Go back to posting cartoons, and hurling homophobic, misogynistic and racist insults. Pretending you know anything must be exhausting. Your point is what?
$1 of fiat currency is worth $1 (for now)... $1 backed by 1/1600th of an ounce of gold would be worth...wait for it. $1.
$1600 of current fiat currency currently buys about an ounce of gold.
$1600 of currency backed by 1/1600th of an ounce of gold would currently buy...wait for it...an ounce of gold.
Math isn't your strength is it?
What does the federal reserve vs the Chinese central bank have to do with gold? You said you dont want the gold standard because it would benefit the Chinese..(as if the chosen medium of exchange and the producer of that medium of exchange had anything to do with the price of tea in China.)
My point was fine, how does the feds making up money somehow present an advantage over the Chinese ability to make up money?
Ah, so the price of gold is fixed. That's a brilliant system if you're fine with the producers of the gold owning everything. Funny thing is, a gold standard doesn't afford the financial flexibility than the people often envision. The economics just don't work that way, which is why the world shrug off gold and the world economy boomed.
What do the Federal Reserve and the Chinese federal reserve have to do with gold? Who else would manage this process on a national level? You don't have to call it the Fed and certainly not in its current form. Maybe I'm being lazy with the lingo; feel free to blame my Econ degree.
(as if the chosen medium of exchange and the producer of that medium of exchange had anything to do with the price of tea in China.)....I'm not sure how to address this.....if you're a fan of Dune, then he who controls the spice (gold) controls the universe. Better?
Once again, under a gold standard, China doesn't "make up" money. The biggest producer wins. Economies of scale, control over supply, etc.
Sheesh. I haven't had to explain producer power in over two decades.
The price of money is fixed
"explained?"
If China is a producer of something of value (gold) why SHOULDN'T they rule the world?
What gives you the confidence that producing LESS things of value and cleverly manipulating your currency SHOULD or even CAN give you actual power?
"Who else would manage THIS on a national level." WHY does "THIS" have to be managed?....Why cannot the medium of exchange for goods and services be "managed" by people that produce goods and services and the people that consume those goods and services?...
I would guess you are one of those people that rails against the manipulation of our world by the so-called 1% and cheerfully agrees that the present system is the only possible one, and even a good one.
You certainly are a whiny little revisionist bitch today. Even for a self-professed schmott guy such as yourself.
The above is a concept our liberals do not understand. I ran the tying of any amount of gold to the dollar as a way to stop the creation of fiat currency out of thin air, but was met with a chorus of tub thumping, and the usual rain dance.
$1 of fiat currency is worth $1 (for now)... $1 backed by 1/1600th of an ounce of gold would be worth...wait for it. $1.
$1600 of current fiat currency currently buys about an ounce of gold.
$1600 of currency backed by 1/1600th of an ounce of gold would currently buy...wait for it...an ounce of gold.
Math isn't your strength is it?
...
Aren't those two statements contradictory?
I mean, if I rail against the 1% yet cheerfully agree with the present system (that created them), wouldn't that make zero sense??
As for managed, much like a bank teller makes change, albeit on a gargantuan level - say country-to-country or state to state....I'm not sure how I can make this concept any clearer.
As for the creation of things of a lesser value, you haven't made the case for it. Yours is a perception of lesser value and manipulation. Even when the world was on the gold standard there was manipulation.
Ergo, you haven't made the case that a gold standard is a better economic system.
What you have done is state your case for a complete economic reset the likes of which might take centuries to recover from....
...and for some unknown personal motivation. Why on Earth do you think that would motivate people to side with you?
In other words, you are tying the value of one marker with no intrinsic value to the value of another marker with no intrinsic value.
Gold has no intrinsic value? In what century?
It does make zero sense...which is why you shouldn't support both ideas.
You mean you can't think of any other reason to justify it.
Heard of Paypal? Any reason it couldn't be powered by fairy feathers, bit-coin, Ecuadorian dollars, reales, Chinese yuan or gold reserves..tomorrow?
Nope.. Only the 12 wise men can tell us how to transact business.
I don't have to "make the case" for actual production of things of value to be the winning strategy for any country. Yes that includes slightly intangible "things of value' such as creative endeavors, music, software, books, etc.
Anyone that thinks contrary to that is an idiot.
So, my "perception" is that gold with a 5000 year history, proven scarcity, ductile, malleable, and highly conductive that you can hold in your hand and has conveyed value from generation to generation all that time is of value.
Producing goods and services is of value...yep you have my "perception" about value correct.
Your "perception" is that fake money has value over that because???
I am not arguing that the gold standard is the only viable system, only that there is ZERO reasons to support the current system. You were arguing that the (inflated) dollar amount of the M1 made gold as a standard impossible. I was pointing out to you why that is nonsense. The actual growth of real assets since decoupling our currency has not outstripped Gold production in any meaningful way.
"Complete economic reset"
Oh you mean like when Nixon with a stroke of a pen changed ours? It hasn't taken a century to feel the effects of that, has it? Carter Administration? Admittedly Carter's ineptitude with slapping on wage and price controls made it worse, but that inflation was a direct result of a "complete economic reset."
Just because you have had full faith and confidence in green pieces of paper your entire life does not mean that that is "sustainable' to use the word progressives love. When and if the majority of people come to consider that they are not at all confident in having a naked emperor, they will find other ways to make exchanges.
It happened in the 70's during hyper-inflation. Barter exchanges sprung up WITHOUT the internet to provide for ease of tracking and portability.
YOUR personal motivation for vouching for the status quo is as yet still not articulated. All of the reasons you cite are easily dismissible.
No one is "siding with me' as I have no voice and no power. It is not "MY side. It is the "side" of economic reality.
If, and only if, our spending were reduced dramatically can the "full faith and credit of the United States of America" continue to have any weight in the long term. Spending 40cents more than we take in is beyond unsustainable.
Actual analysts working for bond rating companies have reached this conclusion. Our ratings will continue to fall, the corresponding interest rates that those (few) buyers of bonds will demand will increase and the house of cards will come down.
The only reason international investors buy US Bonds at all is that they believe that the US Government will continue to prop them up with the help of the artificial buys at the unaudited Federal Reserve.
The artificial buys are helping those international investors ease out of US Treasuries without causing a panic that would be detrimental to those still in, the Federal Reserve and the US Gov't.
The math is correct because it's simply math. Choose any permutation and the answer will always be mathematically correct.
The assumptions on which it is based, however, are not. That you choose to laugh at those who question it because you have a calculator at hand, that's pretty much par for the course for you, dummy.
I'm not going to respond to these because, frankly, you seem incapable of understanding that I'm using the Fed in name - AND NOT FUNCTION - only.
I'm just quoting it for the sheer hilarity of your comments.
Yeah, thanks for documenting the 'win" with your mirth...as if arguing with an economic illiterate on the internet is something I should be proud of.
Gold is no different than any other kind of currency. It's only worth what someone will trade you for it.
Gold... dollars.... sea shells... it's ALL fiat currency.
I just found it amusing that you said X amount of gold = X amount of Dollars.
Shirley you can see the irony.
I state categorically that there was no "win" on my part. I just happen to find your "analysis" funny, though your rhetoric reminds me of a mad man fighting for something he has no clue about, yet, because someone else said it was worth fighting for, he's fighting for it.
Once again - because I know it takes a few tries to sink in with you - our exchange this afternoon was in no way a win for me. In fact, I'll readily admit that I'm the poorer for it.