Karl Rove sees Obama having a solid lead in EC votes

[KingOrfeo]

According to this map from his website.

217 Obama
73 Lean Obama
90 Romney
71 Lean Romney
87 Toss-Up

Quite a hard row to hoe. Romney can't win without winning practically all the swing states and toss-ups, it appears.

(If Obama wins the EC vote but loses the popular vote, I promise you, I will scream as loudly for the EC's abolition as I did in 2000 (with a bit of I-told-you-so snark added, of course). But Obama will remain POTUS.)

 

[KingOrfeo]

I can't believe Rove has Arizona listed as a "Toss-Up" state, though. Ain't it solid red?

 

[phrodeau]

Karl Rove will say and do whatever he thinks is the best thing to get Republicans elected. He doesn't care about facts or reality.

 

[KingOrfeo]

Karl Rove will say and do whatever he thinks is the best thing to get Republicans elected. He doesn't care about facts or reality.

How does this get Republicans elected? Usually, campaign consultants try to make their candidate look stronger than he is. That's how you get the enthusiasm -- and the money.

 

[CHNOPS]

How does this get Republicans elected? Usually, campaign consultants try to make their candidate look stronger than he is. That's how you get the enthusiasm -- and the money.

In a primary, that's true. It's frankly how Romney won this winter/spring. In the one-person field of the general, it's the opposite: you galvanize support by implying a disadvantage. Frontrunning breeds complacency.

But I will say that his map is not that different from RCP's.

 

[Mike_Yates]

Karl Rove is a murderer. He orders the assassinations of people (and sometimes of entire families) whom try to expose his criminal activities.

 

[ChinaBandit]

Who knows?

Last week, Dick Morris suggested Obama would be lucky to carry ten states if the election were held today. Was Dick smoking something?

It's all too early to tell.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Jimmy Carter looked pretty fucking untouchable this far out...

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Karl Rove is a murderer. He orders the assassinations of people (and sometimes of entire families) whom try to expose his criminal activities.

rotfl...

 

[ChinaBandit]

Jimmy Carter looked pretty fucking untouchable this far out...

Yeah.

This thing won't get white hot until September and who knows what chaos will exist at that time.

For example, Greece. It's beginning to look more-and-more like they will fall out of the EU. We don't really know what shock waves might follow that.

 

[Mike_Yates]

rotfl...

Karl Rove is responsible for literally dozens of hit jobs.

It's best to keep your nose out of his shady business if you value your life.

The Department of Justice is a mafia-like organization which "deals with" anyone who tries to expose it's corruption in an extremely violent manner.

 

[CHNOPS]

Jimmy Carter looked pretty fucking untouchable this far out...

Actually, he looked quite touchable. In May of 1980, Carter's approval rating was 43%, on a downward trend.

Whoopsie!

 

[ChinaBandit]

Actually, he looked quite touchable. In May of 1980, Carter's approval rating was 43%, on a downward trend.

Whoopsie!

Well, Carter had to contend with a challenge from within his own party.

There is still much time, and unknown events, to consider.

I'd be surprised if the contest stayed static.

Obama's path in the electoral college is, by default, easier because California and New York provide a very decided foundation.

 

[CHNOPS]

Well, Carter had to contend with a challenge from within his own party.

There is still much time, and unknown events, to consider.

I'd be surprised if the contest stayed static.

Obama's path in the electoral college is, by default, easier because California and New York provide a very decided foundation.

If that matters in the way you suggest, how has a Republican ever won?

Barring scandal or overseas catastrophe at our hands, Obama will be reelected. The "Anybody But Obama" crowd was never going to vote for him anyway. Romney is barely more popular with the R's than Obama is with the entire country (Romney = 60% of R's, Obama 47% of country and 80% of D's).

Get used to the idea and things will be much easier for you from here out.

 

[ChinaBandit]

If that matters in the way you suggest, how has a Republican ever won?

Given current demographics, essentially by carrying Floridia, Ohio and some other swing states. The path followed by GWB in 2000/2004. It's very narrow. Romney can't lose either Florida or Ohio.

The last time a republican carried California was in 1988.

The last time a republican carried New York was in 1984.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Yeah.

This thing won't get white hot until September and who knows what chaos will exist at that time.

For example, Greece. It's beginning to look more-and-more like they will fall out of the EU. We don't really know what shock waves might follow that.

Not out of the EU, but certainly the Euro. The Banana Republics of Europe want to go back to inflating their currency in order to pretend to pay government workers and benefits.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Actually, he looked quite touchable. In May of 1980, Carter's approval rating was 43%, on a downward trend.

Whoopsie!

How was the Democrat v Republican generic ballot?

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

If that matters in the way you suggest, how has a Republican ever won?

Barring scandal or overseas catastrophe at our hands, Obama will be reelected. The "Anybody But Obama" crowd was never going to vote for him anyway. Romney is barely more popular with the R's than Obama is with the entire country (Romney = 60% of R's, Obama 47% of country and 80% of D's).

Get used to the idea and things will be much easier for you from here out.

All it will take for the middle is for this economy to continue on its current trajectory.

Right now, he is not polling strongly with the "independents."

Not that I put a helluva lot of stock into polling.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Its Obamas election to lose, and he's trying hard to lose it.

R-Money cant connect with average Americans, neither can the GOP elites.

 

[Ulaven_Demorte]

How was the Democrat v Republican generic ballot?

*laugh*
Cap'n goalpost-mover.

First you said Carter looked untouchable, now you're talking about generic Democrat vs Republican?

The same bullshit uttered by those who forsee a Republican victory, Generic Republican vs. Democrat.. Republicans are winning!! Until the Republican candidates were actually named.

Then, not so much.

 

[Liar]

Karl seems to be blue-shifting to rally the troops. Conservatives are fear driven ("Terrorists, communists and bears, o my!") where liberals are anger driven ("Revolution 'gainst Wall Street, aaargh!"). You engage conservatives by telling a tall tale of a different, but dreadful tomorrow. That's why Bush won a second term. ("Terror, terror, terror, and not that anybody asked but I'm gonna defend marriage against the marauding gay hordes. Oh, and terror.") You engage liberals by telling a tall tale of a different, but awesome tomorrow. (That hopey changey stuff, breaking free of the shackles of...whatever.)

The tall tale of a blue landslide is the implicit tall tale of marauding gay hordes replacing your guns with dildos, 99%-ers with pitchforks performing mandatory abortions at Wal-Mart sized Planned Parenthood complexes, and Paul Krugman raping your white picket fence.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Karl seems to be blue-shifting to rally the troops. Conservatives are fear driven ("Terrorists, communists and bears, o my!") where liberals are anger driven ("Revolution 'gainst Wall Street, aaargh!"). You engage conservatives by telling a tall tale of a different, but dreadful tomorrow. That's why Bush won a second term. ("Terror, terror, terror, and not that anybody asked but I'm gonna defend marriage against the marauding gay hordes. Oh, and terror.") You engage liberals by telling a tall tale of a different, but awesome tomorrow. (That hopey changey stuff, breaking free of the shackles of...whatever.)

The tall tale of a blue landslide is the implicit tall tale of marauding gay hordes replacing your guns with dildos, 99%-ers with pitchforks performing mandatory abortions at Wal-Mart sized Planned Parenthood complexes, and Paul Krugman raping your white picket fence.

No, dear. Independents are fear driven.

The Lefties respond to their internal voices.

And the Conservatives work and pay the bills for the others. They respond to frustration.

 

[NeverEndingMe]

if the obama regime loses, will you enjoy an aneurysm?

 

[Liar]

No, dear. Independents are fear driven.

The Lefties respond to their internal voices.

And the Conservatives work and pay the bills for the others. They respond to frustration.

If conservatives respond to frustration, Republican campaigners and strategists are card carrying idiots. Because what they do de facto pimp to the base, is fear.

 

[Liar]

if the obama regime loses, will you enjoy an aneurysm?

Who the hell enjoys an aneurysm?