What happened to all of the doom and gloom economic threads?

[trysail]

This is not the yield curve of a healthy economy:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?type=c13&cfg=yldCurve_10.xml&x=3m|6m|1y|2y|3y|4y|5y|6y|7y|8y|9y|10y|15y|20y|30y&y1=0.00507|0.0661|0.13738|0.34182|0.612||1.45846||2.17968|||2.91255|||4.16799&y2=0.01014|0.07628|0.15266|0.37035|0.67302||1.54045||2.25261|||2.98253|||4.21489&y3=-0.00507|-0.01018|-0.01528|-0.02853|-0.06103||-0.08199||-0.07293|||-0.06998|||-0.04691&img=png​

Who— in their right mind— is going to buy a 10-year fixed rate bond with a 2.91% yield-to-maturity when inflation is running at a 3.6% annual rate?

 

[Ulaven_Demorte]

Can you spell L-I-B-Y-A ?

Can you spell S-P-E-C-U-L-A-T-O-R-S?
Libya accounts for approximately 1.8% of global oil supply.

 

[busybody..]

grrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

[trysail]

Can you spell S-P-E-C-U-L-A-T-O-R-S?
Libya accounts for approximately 1.8% of global oil supply.

Even when it's right in front of your eyes, your ignorance of commodity markets, economics and business is showing ( again ).

 

[mercury14]

Your cherry-picking is laudable, but those were not "good" jobs created

Evidence? You guys keep coming up with this shit about how the stimulus created a bunch of government jobs but you've NEVER provided any evidence of that. How come you don't use evidence in your arguments?

How come you can't find a single nonpartisan economic analysis source to support your argument that the stimulus did NOT work???

You also claim that the stimulus did not save us from MUCH more dire consequences, yet independent analysis says we'd be looking at nearly 11% unemployment and a MUCH deeper, much more difficult hole to dig ourselves out of.

Why should anyone believe you (or the NRO) over non-partisan, objective Moody's, IHS, and Macroeconomic Advisors? The fact is that you're guilty as hell of dismissing objectivity in favor of this right-wing narrative you choose to believe. You shield yourself from objective observation at all costs because reality fucking kicks your fantasy's ass.

 

[mercury14]

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/mzuck...why-the-jobs-situation-is-worse-than-it-looks


Now Merc, again, DEFINE "WORKED!"

Here you are again making the absurd argument that since we're not back to 5% unemployment and living the good life, that the stimulus didn't work.

You're just like a patient who goes to the doctor for a migrane headache, pain scale level of 9. It's the type of migrane that will continue to worsen to a pain-10 unless there is medical intervention. The doctor gives them a pain reliever which knocks it down to a 7. You're the kind of patient who says "doctor, this medicine didn't work because I still have a headache!"

This is the bullshit thinking that Republicans are peddling all over the country. And you're so easily fooled.

 

[richard_daily]

Can you spell L-I-B-Y-A ?

So basically; the stock market is at the whims of the fears of those who have more money than they know what to do with, yet they're terrified of their own shadow.

 

[richard_daily]

Even when it's right in front of your eyes, your ignorance of commodity markets, economics and business is showing ( again ).

Much like veteman, it must be so very lonely to always be right about everything...

 

[IrezumiKiss]

Awwww...lookie there...the little limp dick piece of pigshit racist is awl mad that someone's pissing on his constant enabled parade of hate and haz a sad. Maybe he can run to one of his (pathetically few) cheerleading girlfriends on here and have them kiss his boo-boo away.

AWWWWWWWWWWWW

http://28.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lfuflx2umW1qgwhu8o1_500.gif

 

[mercury14]

Prove that statement.

Define "worked."

Still haven't read the report, huh? Nothing like refusing to read something objective at all costs.

We find that its effects on real GDP, jobs, and inflation are huge, and probably averted what could have been called Great Depression 2.0. For example, we estimate that, without the government’s response, GDP in 2010 would be about 11.5% lower, payroll employment would be less by some 8½ million jobs, and the nation would now be experiencing deflation.

[Regarding the stimulus alone without the rest of the governement intervention] Nonetheless, the effects of the fiscal stimulus alone appear very substantial, raising 2010 real GDP by about 3.4%, holding the unem-ployment rate about 1½percentage points lower, and adding almost 2.7 million jobs to U.S. payrolls.




Wow. What's your definition of "worked"?

 

[IrezumiKiss]

The only thing I see from him is that he's on my ignore list.
I don't suffer the racist rants of idiots.

The piece of shit will always have his cocksucker righty buddies to boost his childseat up and laugh as he spits up his bile for the audience, but I do wish some people with better sense here would stop quoting him every now and then as if he's a human being that deserves a rational response. Even Perg quit talking to him thanks to his newfound celebration of ugliness. If he can do it, everyone can.

 

[trysail]

So basically; the stock market is at the whims of the fears of those who have more money than they know what to do with, yet they're terrified of their own shadow.

I am nearly certain that there's a thought awaiting expression in English buried somewhere in the above.

 

[trysail]

Much like veteman, it must be so very lonely to always be right about everything...

I have been wrong many times in the past. I will, no doubt, be wrong on occasion in the future.

 

[unregistered]

 

[busybody..]

This is ONLY for NIGGER MO CURRY

Who is so desperate in protecting the NIGGER he besmirches himself

here is something to read that is recent and destroys your arguments

Please proceed to destroy the reputations of teh persons writing it

http://web.econ.ohio-state.edu/dupor/arra10_may11.pdf

Tee Hee

as predicted

he didnt

"see" this

yeah

right

 

[richard_daily]

I have been wrong many times in the past. I will, no doubt, be wrong on occasion in the future.

But you'll ALWAYS be lonely.

 

[busybody..]

Qucik, NIGGER CURRY, contact MOODY BLUES!

New York, New York
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
7 World Trade Center
at 250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
USA






"Unexpectedly" Compilation

The Main Stream Media seems to be constantly shocked at how poorly the American economy is doing under ObamaNomics. Whenever poor business, house, or job news comes out, they are quick to throw on the word "unexpectedly," pretending that the economy is actually doing great, but this one time it hiccuped. But the problem is, the poor economic news is quite expected because of President Obama's incompetence.

So, I decided to take some time and compile some of the "unexpectedlies" from the start of the year until today. But before I begin, just remember what Albert Einstein once said (which is normally attributed to Benjamin Franklin): "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

So, without further ado:

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Falls to Six-Month Low on Job Outlook, from Bloomberg, May 31, 2011

US Q4 growth unexpectedly revised down, from EuroNews, February 25, 2011

U.S. Factory Orders Drop Unexpectedly, from Industry Week, March 24, 2011

US Services Economy Slowed Unexpectedly in March: ISM, from MSNBC, April 5, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump, Reflecting Quarter-End Volatility, from Bloomberg, April 14, 2011

"Core U.S. producer prices rose slightly faster than expected," from Reuters, April 14, 2011

Construction Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Fell to Decade Low, from Bloomberg, from February 1, 2011

U.S. initial jobless claims rise unexpectedly, from Forexpros, June 23, 2011

"Unexpectedly weak economic data," from Economics Newspaper, from April 2011

U.S. Economy: Goods Orders Unexpectedly Fall, Claims Drop, from Bloomberg, March 24, 2011

Orders for Manufactured Goods Fall Unexpectedly, from the New York Times, March 24, 2011

"Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly declined in January," from Bloomberg, January 14, 2011

"Initial Jobless Claims Rise Unexpectedly," from Reuters, April 28, 2011

"Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in December," from Bloomberg Businessweek, January 3, 2011

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise to Three-Month High, from Money News, April 28, 2011

U.S. Economy: Confidence Unexpectedly Drops to 6-Month Low, from Bloomberg Businessweek, May 31, 2011

U.S. initial unemployment claims unexpectedly soars, from World Bank, May 5, 2011

Housing Starts Unexpectedly Plunge 10.6%, Pointing to More Construction Woes, from Money News, May 19, 2011

Consumer confidence falls unexpectedly in May, from USA Today, May 31, 2011

Unemployment Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Increased to 424,000 Last Week, from Bloomberg, May 26, 2011

"New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed to 424,000 last week," from CNBC, May 26, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Climb, from Bloomberg, June 9, 2011

U.S. Economy: Previously Owned Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall, from Bloomberg Businessweek, May 19, 2011

US Q1 corporate profits drop unexpectedly, from Business Speculator, May 26, 2011

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Jump on One-Time Events, from Bloomberg, May 5, 2011

"Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly stalled in April and housing starts dropped," from Bloomberg Businessweek, May 17, 2011

In case you didn't notice, quotation marks denotes quotes from articles.

Update- More headlines and quotes:

"Wall Street tumbled at Thursday’s opening bell after the government reported an unexpectedly sharp jump in unemployment claims," from MSNBC, June 23, 2011

"The Federal Reserve stayed the course on monetary policy Wednesday, citing "likely" temporary factors for the unexpectedly sluggish growth in the US economy," from MSN, June 22, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Climb, from Bloomberg, June 9, 2011

"The dollar slumped on Friday after a government report showed an unexpectedly small amount of hiring in May," from MSN, June 4, 2011

"The National Association of Home Builders’ sentiment index unexpectedly fell to 13 in June from 16 in May," from the Financial Times, Jue 15, 2011

"The jobless rate, which is obtained from a separate household survey, unexpectedly rose to 9.1 percent in May," from Fox Philadelphia, June 3, 2011

U.S. jobless claims rises unexpectedly, from the AP, June 9, 2011

"Consumer confidence unexpectedly decreased in May," from Bloomberg, June 13, 2011

"An unexpected jump in claims for unemployment benefits," from the AP, June 23, 2011

And a few that, instead of using "unexpected," use "more than expected:"

Jobless claims rise more than expected, Reuters, June 23, 2011

Economy cools more than expected, rattling stock market, from the Christian Science Monitor, June 1, 2011

US Economy Growing Slower Than Expected, from the Money Times, June 23, 2011

US home sales fall more than expected, from the Financial Times, March 21, 2011

U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in March, from MSNBC, May 11, 2011

US GDP Growth Slows More Than Expected, from Sky News, April 28, 2011

Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected, from Industry Week, March 10, 2011

And this quote was in Yahoo's front-page article today:

"At the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting, the central bank said that while the recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, growth is somewhat slower than expected. It also said the jobs market is "weaker than anticipated.""

Update #2- And why not a few more? These are "*fill in the blank* than expected:"

U.S. Adds Far Fewer Jobs Than Expected in May, from Nation Journal, June 1, 2011

Worse than Expected Jobs Report, from Market Watch, June 3, 2011

Fewer new jobs than expected in May, from UPI, June 3, 2011

US Initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week, from the IBI Times, April 7, 2011

Economy created fewer jobs than expected, from American Public Media, January 2011

Us Employment Rises Far Less Than expected in May, from Forex Trading Portal, June 3, 2011

Higher than expected US weekly jobless claims take shine off the FTSE, from the Guardian, January 6, 2011

US jobs growth lower than expected, from RTE, January 7, 2011

Job growth slower than expected in January, from Reuters, February 4, 2011

U.S. jobless claims rise more than expected, from the Globe and Mail, June 23, 2011

U.S. private employers added fewer jobs than expected in April, from Reuters, May 4, 2011

 

[Frisco_Slug_Esq]

A year old report that says probably. (Thank you for BOLDING in order for me to spot what I already knew.)

That's an important word to mathematicians and logicians.

It means that probably, it did not. A probability is just that. A coin will be heads 50% of the time, but if you just flipped tails, the next flip is not guaranteed to be heads. This goes all the way back to my experiences as a modeler and programmer, when you model a chaotic system (the big provable fallacy of man-made global "disaster"), you make assumptions and ignore other factors, as this report had to. The stimulus did not work as intended because unemployment, at this point was to be 6.8% according to White House projections. It is 9.1%, AFTER a bookkeeping gimmick designed to make it look better. That means probably that we're in the same pattern as occurred during the Great Depression where every eight months we had signs of recovery for brief periods, and Bernake has just signaled this and he's an independent analyst/manager of the economy, at least in his mind.

If this is their economy, why did their economists flee?
__________________
"We own the economy. We own the beginning of the turnaround and we want to make sure that we continue that pace of recovery, not go back to the policies of the past under the Bush administration that put us in the ditch in the first place."
Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Barry 2012 Says: ”’Shovel-ready’ was not as shovel-ready as we expected.” (Laughter)
http://pajamasmedia.com/tatler/files/2011/04/obama-wide-grin80.jpg

 

[Frisco_Slug_Esq]

busybody, you are about to go on ignore for the very serious crime of screen-stretching.

 

[Ulaven_Demorte]

busybody, you are about to go on ignore for the very serious crime of screen-stretching.

Now that's fucking hilarious, you're more than willing to overlook his constant spew of ethnic slurs from every orifice, but stretching your screen is a "serious crime"..

 

[Ulaven_Demorte]

A year old report that says probably. (Thank you for BOLDING in order for me to spot what I already knew.)

I'm sure you have an independent economic analysis that repudiates those that have already been posted.

So why aren't you showing everyone the light?
Except you can't show any such report.. You just "know"..

 

[Frisco_Slug_Esq]

Well, the claim is the Administration averted a depression with the stimulus.

You claimed you needed time and patience for the lagging indicator, jobs, to go down.

Now, have a little patience because a depression, like a recession, can only be determined in hindsight.





What makes his report "independent" while all of mine were obviously not?

A recent study for the National Bureau of Economic Research, by Joel Slemrod and Matthew Shapiro of the University of Michigan and Claudia Sahm of the Federal Reserve Board, says that's exactly what happened with Obama's tax cut. The effect on spending, they concluded, was "modest at best."

Giving money to states and municipalities to spare them from firing teachers and slashing social programs undoubtedly achieves that simple purpose. But when it comes to generating economic activity, it's flying on a wing and a prayer.

Economists William Gale and Benjamin Harris of the Brookings Institution and Alan Auerbach of the University of California, Berkeley, note in a new paper that "while the argument for transfers to states being stimulative is plausible, there is surprisingly little evidence on the countercyclical effects of federal transfers to states."

It is safe to say, though, that they have a destructive impact on taxpayers. During good times, states and cities tend to enlarge their budgets, rather than put money away for a rainy day. Economic downturns serve as a corrective by forcing these governments to eliminate low-value programs to live within their new constraints.

http://reason.com/archives/2010/09/23/the-failure-of-obamas-stimulus

Failure in this context doesn’t mean that the stimulus program didn’t create any jobs. That’s a silly proposition. Every student who completes Economics 101 knows that an increase in government spending or a cut in taxes will give the economy a short-run shot in the arm. The failure of the Obama package was that the actual demand stimulus was absurdly small in relation to the amount of money ($827 billion) spent. Spending even more money in the same way, as many liberals advocated, only would have added to that failure. The failure resulted not from a shortage of money, but from two fundamental flaws in the program’s design.

The first flaw was the choice of policy levers. Fiscal stimulus can be generated from either increases in government spending or tax cuts. From the outset, Mr. Obama was adamant about his preferences. He characterized the tax-cut option as the “tired dogma of the past” and emphasized the need to hitch short-run stimulus onto long-term investments in infrastructure and energy independence.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/nov/5/the-anatomy-of-stimulus-failure/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/09/23/the_failure_of_obamas_stimulus_107273.html

http://paulkrugmanblog.com/paul-krugman-third-depression-the-stimulus-was-way-too-small/

What we have here is one school of economics saying by their analysis, something is so. Slapping a label, "independent," on them does not make them right.

 

[Frisco_Slug_Esq]

Now that's fucking hilarious, you're more than willing to overlook his constant spew of ethnic slurs from every orifice, but stretching your screen is a "serious crime"..

Shut up white nigger. It's none of your fucking business.

 

[unregistered]

 

[Ulaven_Demorte]

Shut up white nigger. It's none of your fucking business.

Demonstrating why you have no issue with Dizzybooby spewing ethnic slurs.

Bravo Cap'n Bigot.