What happened to all of the doom and gloom economic threads?

[onemadvagabond]

Stupid.

Unemployment is down since the beginning of the year. It's up a minute amount in the past month even though there were +54,000 jobs added. And of course the three months prior we were adding around 200,000 jobs PER MONTH.

Yes, there are uncounted people who stopped trying. But they're coming back and canceling out some of the job gains.

Five continuous weeks of losses on Wall Street? Okay, but that still only cancelled out about 25% of the gains for the year.

Millions working Wal-Mart jobs? Okay, and Republicans are doing their best to de-unionize entire industries to turn them into low-paying, low benefit Wal-jobs where only the tiny few at the top are making good money.

Housing prices are just kind of sitting there. It will be like this for a while as there's a glut in the housing market. Not much that can be done about this.

Fuel prices? That's a global commodity that Obama (or a hypothetical president McCain) can't contol.

Quit yer bitchin'.

That 9.1 is up a tenth of a percent in one month when it only went down .8% over the last 2.5 years.

That 5 weeks of losses are a reaction to the sluggish economy making it's way back in a big way.

Housing prices just sitting there? They have been dropping like a rock all year.

Obama can't control gas prices. Huh. It seemed that when Bush was in office is all you heard was liberals claiming that he controlled gas prices. I also never said he controlled them moron.

I also wasn't bitching. I was pointing out the top problems with the economy as economists who let their biased opinions stay in their heads right where they belong have been doing all year. While all of you are just arguing jobs numbers, the real issue is much more than just jobs.

Don't forget the issue that every reputable economist is worried about. A double dip in the economy.
Another big part of the problem is that the government is now directly responsible for 25% of GDP. The highest in the history of the U.S. That is never a good thing for the private sector and creating real economic recovery.

 

[mercury14]

If government payroll is declining, then it is about time they felt our pain.

Now, show me your stats that prove local governments are cutting back and then show me the stats that prove the Federal government is shrinking.

Dude, I JUST showed you a link from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Employment in local government continued to decline over the month (-28,000). Local
government has lost 446,000 jobs since an employment peak in September 2008.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

So there's minus a half-million government jobs right there.

The number of federal employees is the same as when Clinton was in office.

"From 1981 through 2008, the civilian work force remained at about 1.1 million to 1.2 million, with a low of 1.07 million in 1986 and a high of more than 1.2 million in 1993 and in 2008. In 2009, the number jumped to 1.28 million.

Including both the civilian and defense sectors, the federal government will employ 2.15 million people in 2010 and 2.11 million in 2011, excluding Postal Service workers.

The administration says 79 percent of the increases in recent years are from departments related to the war on terrorism: Justice, Defense, Homeland Security, State and Veterans Affairs."

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/feb/02/burgeoning-federal-payroll-signals-return-of-big-g/

So um, we added a new cabinet department, entered into two wars, and are currently being flooded with demands for Veterans' services, and we still DECREASED the number of federal employees from 2.15 million to 2.11 million between 2010-2011. Add that to a -446,000 decrease in local government jobs and you have a total loss of half a million government jobs.

Sorry, your right wing narrative isn't supported by facts or data. It relies on stupid people not checking facts for themselves and just putting blind faith into their right wing overlords.

 

[mercury14]

That 9.1 is up a tenth of a percent in one month when it only went down .8% over the last 2.5 years.

That 5 weeks of losses are a reaction to the sluggish economy making it's way back in a big way.

Housing prices just sitting there? They have been dropping like a rock all year.

Obama can't control gas prices. Huh. It seemed that when Bush was in office is all you heard was liberals claiming that he controlled gas prices. I also never said he controlled them moron.

I also wasn't bitching. I was pointing out the top problems with the economy as economists who let their biased opinions stay in their heads right where they belong have been doing all year. While all of you are just arguing jobs numbers, the real issue is much more than just jobs.

Don't forget the issue that every reputable economist is worried about. A double dip in the economy.
Another big part of the problem is that the government is now directly responsible for 25% of GDP. The highest in the history of the U.S. That is never a good thing for the private sector and creating real economic recovery.

No, few economists aren't worried about a double-dip recession. Politicians wants you to be worried about it though. They just had a panel of Moody's, Bloomburg, and six other economists from major independent firms on like ABC news and asked them about a doublt dip recession. And ZERO of them said they thought it would happen.

 

[mercury14]

Looks like they're all scared off... Posting in other threads now, pretending this thread never happened

 

[onemadvagabond]

No, few economists aren't worried about a double-dip recession. Politicians wants you to be worried about it though. They just had a panel of Moody's, Bloomburg, and six other economists from major independent firms on like ABC news and asked them about a doublt dip recession. And ZERO of them said they thought it would happen.

As usual, you only pick out what you want to see. I said worried, not that they said it would happen. You also have to look at a number of aspects. Most of the gains that you’ve seen in the market for the last eight or so months are almost a direct result from the temporary government bond buying program that is getting ready to come to a close. Most agree on the fact that all this did was give the country a false sense of recovery.

That 600 billion was spent by the feds to help drive down long term interest rates. It wasn’t necessarily spent, but basically writing checks to by the bonds for those that think they spent another 600 billion, they really kind of didn't. This was the system they all speak of when they talk about ‘printing money’. The feds did this to curb deflation. It looked as if it were working until this week. The other economic factors have started pushing back. The biggest problem with this idea is the fact that we could wind up like Japan during their lost decade of recession and hyperinflation. The feds are so worried about deflation and finding a way to get the banks to loan money again, which is a big part of what that was about, they are probably going to push us further into a screwed up economy.

The consumer price index has risen 3.2 percent over the last year. It's why retail sales are actually down and companies are starting to lower expectations. This is due in part by fuel prices and other factors. Fuel prices, which show no sign of any real decline in the near future. Yes, they have dipped slightly, but doubtful they will go back to levels of even a year ago anytime soon.

When you look at all those factors that is why I said they are worried about a double dip. Once again, I never wrote they said it would happen. You have to look at everything and not just what the job numbers show.

And no, you didn't scare me off. I went and mowed the lawn. You couldn't scare me on your best day.

 

[eyer]

Uh...

...does this apply to the OP?

More Americans Think Economy Will Never Recover

"The mixed signals regarding the economy's health are taking a toll.

"Americans are growing increasingly doubtful about direction of the US economy, according to the latest survey from business-advisory firm AlixPartners.

"In fact, an increasing number, some 61 percent, say they don't expect to return to their respective pre-recession lifestyles until the spring of 2014, if ever.

"What's worse, a full 10 percent said they expect they will never return to pre-recession spending."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43268037

Maybe the surveyors or the site itself is RW-biased...

 

[PannieMonster]

Stocks post fifth straight week of losses
Stocks extend losing streak after government job report shows weak hiring in May

 

[PannieMonster]

Bleak jobs report dampens hopes of steady growth
Anemic job growth in May sends unemployment rate up slightly, dims hopes of steady recovery

 

[IrezumiKiss]

http://junkcharts.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341e992c53ef015431fdd4a4970c-pi

 

[PannieMonster]

http://junkcharts.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341e992c53ef015431fdd4a4970c-pi

I especially like the idea of using our food supply to produce corn ethanol to put in our gas tanks. The feds should spend more money on that.

 

[IrezumiKiss]

http://www.almostsmart.com/upload/files/2006/Mar/graph.jpg

 

[Frisco_Slug_Esq]

merc, what's the total number of government jobs?

What is it for every municipality of local government?

What's the total payroll of the Federal government including military, CIA, ATF, etc., even those entities which ostensibly pay for themselves such as the Post Office, Freddie and Fannie, but in reality need continual tax dollar bailouts?

Now, if that number is five million, then half a million is an impressive number, however, if the number is closer to 50 million, then, again, we see that government has little or no skin in the game.

Now, you may continue to wish to try and claim that government is "shrinking," but the rest of us see 4,000 lines of code creating quite a boon in jobs, not to mention the wave of Czars...

I remember the last time the government shed jobs, it affected my little brother. He was laid off from his government job and rehired as an independent contractor the same day, doing the same job, in the same office with a two grade promotion to make up for the loss of his benefit package...

 

[Frisco_Slug_Esq]

merc, what's the government's cut/take/vig of our GDP?

 

[kbate]

merc, what's the government's cut/take/vig of our GDP?

Not enough.

They should immediately lift the Social Security tax cap and make everyone (or the company) pay the full 15.3% on ALL income. Enough of this tax break at 106,000.

Let's get rid of pet deductions for them - No deductions on income over 250,000.

And Capital Gains are Income - so no more breaks on that - the full income and Social security tax should be charged.

And repeal those tax cuts (the Bush, and Reagan cuts) get the top rate back to 70% where it belongs.


It will jump start the economy when everyone over $250,000 is paying 85.3% of their income. After all, they don't need more than the $36500 they'll have left to live on.

I mean, some CEO earning $100 million will only have to pay $85.3 million in taxes, surely he can live on 14.7 million a year? (minus state taxes of 5% of course)

 

[rosco rathbone]

And Capital Gains are Income - so no more breaks on that -

Let's don't get carried away now...

 

[Frisco_Slug_Esq]

A_J's corollary #11, “The New Age Liberal defines a fair share of taxes as, ‘When you pay your taxes, you have no more money left than anyone else has.’”

 

[Beco]

I especially like the idea of using our food supply to produce corn ethanol to put in our gas tanks. The feds should spend more money on that.

Over the past 10 months, Corn prices have more than doubled. This increase is much larger than the rise in crude oil prices during the same period. Corn is more expensive and Ethanol is more expensive.....

 

[JenAltArmy]

shut the front door!

no, there should be a tax cap and there should be a income tax cap (until obama gets his spending under control)

obama needs to go to rehab and reducation camp

Not enough.

They should immediately lift the Social Security tax cap and make everyone (or the company) pay the full 15.3% on ALL income. Enough of this tax break at 106,000.

Let's get rid of pet deductions for them - No deductions on income over 250,000.

And Capital Gains are Income - so no more breaks on that - the full income and Social security tax should be charged.

And repeal those tax cuts (the Bush, and Reagan cuts) get the top rate back to 70% where it belongs.


It will jump start the economy when everyone over $250,000 is paying 85.3% of their income. After all, they don't need more than the $36500 they'll have left to live on.

I mean, some CEO earning $100 million will only have to pay $85.3 million in taxes, surely he can live on 14.7 million a year? (minus state taxes of 5% of course)

 

[JenAltArmy]

its dumb-ass like you, that enable obama and the other anti american leaders that we have. why do you hate america?

do you see, that the economy is slowing down?
do you see, that we could hit a double dip recession?

you do realize that adding more government workers will create a problem down the line, as we CANT afford obama's master plan, right?!?!?!

http://www.almostsmart.com/upload/files/2006/Mar/graph.jpg

 

[Frisco_Slug_Esq]

In recent weeks, a whole bunch of new economic stats have been pointing to a sputtering economy -- maybe even an inflation-prone, less-than-2-percent-growth recession. Stocks have dropped five straight weeks, as they look toward slower growth, jobs, and profits out to year end. And Friday’s jobs report didn’t buck these trends.

“Anemic” is the adjective being tossed around the media. According to the Labor Department, nonfarm payrolls increased a meager 54,000 in May, while private payrolls gained only 83,000. A week or two ago, Wall Street expected 200,000-plus new jobs. Didn’t happen.

Perhaps the most telling weakness in the jobs report comes from the household survey, which is made up of self-employed workers. Think of mom-and-pop owned stores and small businesses. Think of the Main Street entrepreneurial families who make up the backbone of the economy, and for the matter the country. And they vote, too.

Well, household jobs increased a paltry 105,000 in May, after falling 190,000 in April. The jobless rate is determined by the household survey, and you really need a couple hundred thousand new household jobs a month -- at least -- to lower unemployment. And you really need about 300,000 household jobs a month to put a little torque behind the Main Street economy. But with the lackluster May report, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.1 percent from last month’s 9 percent and March’s 8.8 percent.

Suddenly President Obama has gone from reelect to big trouble. The economic rug has been pulled out from underneath him.

So what changed in the last couple of months or so? Answer: A nasty oil-, gasoline-, and commodity-price shock. It’s eating away at economic growth and jobs. It’s stalling the economy. And it has cut into consumer real incomes and business profits.

Much of this problem can be traced to the failure of the Federal Reserve’s QE2 pump-priming campaign. QE2 has not produced growth, but it has produced inflation. In fact, the consumer price index over the past four or five months has been running close to 6 percent annually.

And most of that new Fed money has served merely to depreciate the dollar. And most of those cheaper dollars are on deposit at the Federal Reserve, where banks are earning 25 basis points for safety and risk aversion. In other words, the majority of that new money is not circulating throughout the economy. It’s a boneheaded Fed stimulus, and it has done more harm than good.

That said, in a larger sense, the failure to ignite small-business job creation has to be laid at the doorstep of the Obama administration, and the economic policies that threaten higher taxes and regulations virtually across the board. On Thursday this week, the president again promised House Democrats to raise taxes on successful top small-business owners. What a great new idea.

So mom and pop don’t feel like taking a risk in this environment. Higher tax-and-regulatory costs have put these entrepreneurs in survival mode. They’re playing their economic cards so close to the vest, business activity has buttoned up tight.

What you want is for people to take their suit jackets off, roll up their shirt sleeves, and go out there and build. But people are hunkering down, not building.

Bear with me for few more jobs stats.

Since the household-survey employment peak back in November 2007, 6.8 million jobs have been lost. Since the so-called end of the recession in June 2009, 199,000 jobs, on balance, have disappeared. And so far this year, household employment has increased by a total of 573,000, which is about 115,000 a month. That’s only one-third of what’s needed to bring down unemployment significantly.

The bottom line is that there hasn’t really been a jobs recovery. President Obama is going to have to own that. But the question is, both in Congress and on the campaign trail, does the GOP have a pro-growth jobs program that will get Main Street mom and pops to roll up their sleeves once again?

http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/larrykudlow/2011/06/04/obamas_job_recession

 

[IrezumiKiss]

its dumb-ass like you, that enable obama and the other anti american leaders that we have. why do you hate america?

do you see, that the economy is slowing down?
do you see, that we could hit a double dip recession?

you do realize that adding more government workers will create a problem down the line, as we CANT afford obama's master plan, right?!?!?!

http://silas216.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/shut-it.jpg

 

[unregistered]

 

[unregistered]

 

[JenAltArmy]

how about you take a cup of "man" and man-up! stop crying in your beer, and get off your ass

 

[mercury14]

Uh...

...does this apply to the OP?

More Americans Think Economy Will Never Recover

"The mixed signals regarding the economy's health are taking a toll.

"Americans are growing increasingly doubtful about direction of the US economy, according to the latest survey from business-advisory firm AlixPartners.

"In fact, an increasing number, some 61 percent, say they don't expect to return to their respective pre-recession lifestyles until the spring of 2014, if ever.

"What's worse, a full 10 percent said they expect they will never return to pre-recession spending."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43268037

Maybe the surveyors or the site itself is RW-biased...

The economy will never return to how it once was, that's quite certain. Countries such as China, Brazil, and Chile are taking slices of the pie nowadays.