Are there natural pendulum swings in youth beliefs or is conservatism done for good?

[renard_ruse]

I found the following article quite sad on many levels:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ould-look-if-only-youth-voted/article1747999/

However, I disagree that there will never be a pendulum swing back to the right among young people. There is no denying that the current crop of under 30s are extremely politically liberal / left-leaning, not just in Canada but throughout the western world. However, rewind just a generation or so ago and this was strikingly not the case.

In fact it wasn't until just a few years ago I was finally able to separate the idea of being young equating with right wing attitudes. It was just so ingrained in me because of the era and perhaps the area I grew up in, to be young meant to be either conservative, even farther right, or else not political at all. The only exceptions were a few oddballs, wierdos, girls, and artsy-fartsy gay types. This wasn't just in my head, there were whole sitcoms based on the "generation gap" between the more conservative teenagers and their aging hippie era parents (remember Family Ties, and there were other shows that touched on this theme as well). In my neighborhood, if you were too liberal you'd probably get your ass kicked, lol. And lest anyone think that it was just in America, I knew exchange students from Europe and they were right wing too (except for the self-described socialist from Norway who got his ass kicked, lol). I had friends from Germany and France and they were either conservative or far right too.

Then you look back farther and prior to the hippie era, most of the teens in the 50s were fairly conservative. They might have gotten into some mischief but politically they were mostly happy with Eisenhower and the way of life of their era. Of course, the ones from a littler earlier tended to be more socialist who grew up with the New Deal and all that. So, it has swung back and forth for many generations now.

So, my point, is that to assume that this current trend among young is permanent and that western countries, and the rest of the world too perhaps, will continue to get more and more leftist over time does not fit the historical patterns. On the other hand, perhaps something has fundamentally changed in human societies and they will continue on farther and farther to the left forever? Or perhaps, it will only swing back when the issues have completely changed and we wouldn't even recognize what is defined as "right" and "left" in say 40 or 50 years?

I know the answer I want to hear, but I'm also a realistic person. I honestly wish I could say I am confident there will be a pendulum swing, and I am about 80% sure there will be. Its that other 20% of me that is deeply worried.

What's your guess (mostly want to hear from rightists, since I'm pretty sure what the usual leftwing suspects are going to say).

 

[renard_ruse]

I mean, when you are seeing two thirds of American youth supporting the Democrats, and over 80% of Canadian youth supporting leftist parties, you have to think that there will be some sort of correction at some point. History has always shown pendulum swings.

During the hippie era, it was thought that the young would go on getting more politically leftist forever and by the late 70s that was simply no longer happening. Granted, I have been predicting a youth swing back to the right since the late 1990s and instead it just keeps getting more overwhelmingly leftist. Yet, I also think that youth tend to follow the crowd even more than older people. So my guess is that if or when it does start to swing back the swing will be hard and fast.

 

[renard_ruse]

Interesting in the article the hypothetical breakdown of Canadian Parliament seats with only 18 to 24 year olds voting would have the Tories retain one seat in Quebec, in Beauce. This is funny because that area was my favorite part of Quebec (its south of Quebec City on the way to Maine). I had no idea at the time it was also the most politically conservative region of the province. I just got a good vibe in the area, in fact all of the areas on the south shore around Quebec City were nice, which turn out to be the most conservative region in general. Montreal is Montreal, its ok but not really my cup of tea. Most people were nice though. I really didn't feel comfortable in the Saguenay or some other areas. I don't think they like outsiders up there or something. I got a bad vibe a few times. Not that has to do with the point of the thread, but since I'm talking to myself anyway I am allowed to digress.

 

[amicus]

So you are not left just soliloquizing with yourself, might I suggest that you depart from the Empirical and the Utilitarian/Pragmatic, and dabble in the metaphysical for a moment.

It is the basic nature of the human being to be free and independent.

We each and all look after number one, ourselves, first and foremost as a matter of individual survival and self identity.

It is only when the intellectual elite, who feel they are all so superior to the common man, when the collectivists begin to acquire power and influence.

It is, in part, a pendulum swing, but that is social science and not reality. There will come a time when those of us who cherish freedom and liberty will stand up and say, "NO MORE", and all the effete progressives will crawl back under their rocks and hibernate.

Amicus Veritas

 

[renard_ruse]

So you are not left just soliloquizing with yourself, might I suggest that you depart from the Empirical and the Utilitarian/Pragmatic, and dabble in the metaphysical for a moment.

It is the basic nature of the human being to be free and independent.

We each and all look after number one, ourselves, first and foremost as a matter of individual survival and self identity.

It is only when the intellectual elite, who feel they are all so superior to the common man, when the collectivists begin to acquire power and influence.

It is, in part, a pendulum swing, but that is social science and not reality. There will come a time when those of us who cherish freedom and liberty will stand up and say, "NO MORE", and all the effete progressives will crawl back under their rocks and hibernate.

Amicus Veritas

Thank you. I really don't mind soliloquizing however. It can be quite entertaining.

 

[renard_ruse]

One thing people might not know about Quebec, is that they have a crap load of bowling alleys. That kind of surprised more than anything else the first time I was there.

 

[amicus]

I am a writer...I talk to myself all the time...

ami

 

[renard_ruse]

Perhaps some youth might like to participate in the discussion?

I didn't see the pendulum swing coming when I was in my early twenties and then after the 1996 election I started to realize what was happening with the youngsters coming up being a bunch of liberal maggots. Perhaps this will happen in reverse over the next few years and those who are little kids today will turn out to be right wingers? Perhaps not.

That is the question I'm trying to get at here. What do others think? Is it normal for such overwhelming percentages of youth to be of one political persuation forever, or can we expect a change in 10, 15, or 20 more years? Predictions?

 

[Frisco_Slug_Esq]

Youth lends itself to altruism and the self-centered belief that they have the answers to all that ails us. It's always going to lean to the Left. Then, fortunately, they have to experience the real world and the reality that they don't know everything...

 

[LJ_Reloaded]

So you are not left just soliloquizing with yourself, might I suggest that you depart from the Empirical and the Utilitarian/Pragmatic, and dabble in the metaphysical for a moment.

It is the basic nature of the human being to be free and independent.

We each and all look after number one, ourselves, first and foremost as a matter of individual survival and self identity.

So what's the point of having a nation if this is the case?

Going by your logic we ought to just go back to small tribes.

 

[Frisco_Slug_Esq]

That's how Liberal government treats us, as little tribes that have to fight each other for our own stuff...

When your philosophy of government is based on groups, you must remember that your group can be a favored or disfavored group with equal ease and that neither status is ever permanent any more than the favors government solemnly promised to purchase your group loyalty.

When the government gets powerful enough to fight over, the people will fight over it, and to the victors go the spoils, thus setting up the next fight.
A_J, the Stupid


Political Realists see the world as it is: ... In this world laws are written for the lofty aim of "the common good" and then acted out in life on the basis of common greed...; a world where we are always moral and our enemies always immoral; a world where "reconciliation" means that when one side gets the power and the other side gets reconciled to it, then we have reconciliation.... In the world as it is, the solution of each problem inevitably creates a new one.
Saul David Alinsky
Rules for Radicals

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Lotsa good points.

I think most of us wake up one morning and realize that the world is made of two groups: Those who ride in the wagon, and those who pull the wagon. A select minority of the riders possess pistols, and adjust the ratio of riders to pullers as required.

When a sweet liberal child discovers that she's connected to the traces, the reality does tend to change her allegience.