What happened to all of the doom and gloom economic threads?

[jeninflorida]

not sure if obama gets it yet, that obama will not be able to spend his way out of this on government projects. obama needs the private enterprise.

I still say, a great solution would be to fire 1/3 of government workers
and we should tax every political leader

Gloom, is looking at the economy and just talking about it.
Doom, is not doing anything about it.
Can Bloom, be around the corner, if it is it'll be the little guy.

 

[Sean Renaud]

not sure if obama gets it yet, that obama will not be able to spend his way out of this on government projects. obama needs the private enterprise.

I still say, a great solution would be to fire 1/3 of government workers
and we should tax every political leader

Whether or not we SHOULD have the government spend its way out of this is a separate issue from if it CAN. If the government CAN'T spend our way out of this we're completely and utterly shit fucked and need to learn Chinese. YESTERDAY. Firing 1/3 of government workers would spike unemployment up to 15% cause another wave of forclosures and send us back to 2008. If that's your idea of a good time by all means. I did all right through it and suspect I would again but still just cus I can survive the burning of Rome doesn't mean I really want you playing with matches.

 

[jeninflorida]

Whether or not we SHOULD have the government spend its way out of this is a separate issue from if it CAN. If the government CAN'T spend our way out of this we're completely and utterly shit fucked and need to learn Chinese. YESTERDAY. Firing 1/3 of government workers would spike unemployment up to 15% cause another wave of forclosures and send us back to 2008. If that's your idea of a good time by all means. I did all right through it and suspect I would again but still just cus I can survive the burning of Rome doesn't mean I really want you playing with matches.

well seeing that government workers are basically living on an entitlement, it would be a cost savings to move them over to unemployment.

really, would we miss most of them? I think not

 

[Sean Renaud]

well seeing that government workers are basically living on an entitlement, it would be a cost savings to move them over to unemployment.

really, would we miss most of them? I think not

Except if we moved them over they wouldn't spend as much money cus they wouldn't have as much money. Also the Marines think you'd miss us.

 

[jeninflorida]

Except if we moved them over they wouldn't spend as much money cus they wouldn't have as much money. Also the Marines think you'd miss us.

well, obama said he was going to get us out of the war
but now its his war....

either way, if they are working (Tax money) or on unemployment (tax money)...see what they have in common....tax money! so it would be less $$ to move them to unemployment

look at the budget cuts, and the wake up call as the obama stimulus is over....

 

[jeninflorida]

my stick is this: most government workers do not worry about spending money. many don’t even feel what we are in a recession. This is my personal experience as I have a war on with a couple different agencies. I’m very happy to report that I kicked ass at the last lee country school board election.

Now, why do we have the DEA? I think the DEA is bigger than some countries whole government. We lost the war on drugs, time for those boys to put their toys down (or take them down to a pawn shop and sell them). Think about how many billions we would save there!

Obama war on terrorism. No one, and I’m sure not even obama has an idea how many billions a year we are spending on THIS WAR. The last couple of “attacks” from the underwear bomber, to the New York Times square event were spoiled by citizens. Great government work!

The underwear bomber was the best, why? Cuz they misspelled the guys name and that is how they missed that one. You would think someone in the government could mimic some of google’s search technology

Except if we moved them over they wouldn't spend as much money cus they wouldn't have as much money. Also the Marines think you'd miss us.

 

[Sean Renaud]

well, obama said he was going to get us out of the war
but now its his war....

either way, if they are working (Tax money) or on unemployment (tax money)...see what they have in common....tax money! so it would be less $$ to move them to unemployment

look at the budget cuts, and the wake up call as the obama stimulus is over....

Obama DID get us out of Iraq. And he ran on upping the war in Afghanistan. Where the hell were you?

It would be less money to move them to unemployment. Just understand if they have less money they spend less money. As long as you're willing to accept that when you paid them 100k they spent 100k on food, housing, and luxury that when you bump them down to 30k that's 70k that isn't getting spent at Best Buy. So Best Buy has to lay off 7 people (12k x 7 employees=72k) so for each government employee you switch you're losing 7 from the civilian force along with them.

Which is why I keep saying you get to pick one thing and only thing. Are we worried about the deficiet and the debt or are we worried about unemployment? If we're worried about the debt cut spending. Employment will get worse but you'll the deficiet down. If you're worried about employment HIRE PEOPLE. The debt will increase but the employment will increase.

So which is important?

my stick is this: most government workers do not worry about spending money. many don’t even feel what we are in a recession. This is my personal experience as I have a war on with a couple different agencies. I’m very happy to report that I kicked ass at the last lee country school board election.

Now, why do we have the DEA? I think the DEA is bigger than some countries whole government. We lost the war on drugs, time for those boys to put their toys down (or take them down to a pawn shop and sell them). Think about how many billions we would save there!

Obama war on terrorism. No one, and I’m sure not even obama has an idea how many billions a year we are spending on THIS WAR. The last couple of “attacks” from the underwear bomber, to the New York Times square event were spoiled by citizens. Great government work!

The underwear bomber was the best, why? Cuz they misspelled the guys name and that is how they missed that one. You would think someone in the government could mimic some of google’s search technology

I agree. So go convince your people of this. Nobody on the left supports the War on Drugs AT ALL and the majority of the left aren't gung ho about the war on terror. Remember how Obama got elected to close Gitmo and give public trials and everything? And how he pussed out cus the right (yes you) screamed that if we held a trial in New York that Osama would decend from the heavens and nuke New York and it wasn't worth the risk? Don't get me wrong I knew from the get go that Obama was a thrice damned centrist but you do realize that you're damning him for not for being liberal but for NOT being liberal enough for your tastes right?

 

[trysail]

As of 1 December, 2010:



Let's take a look at the U.S. national debt outstanding and its UNFUNDED LIABILITIES as reported by http://www.usdebtclock.org. At the moment, the total stands at a stunning $125,785,600,400,000 ( for U.S. based innumerates, that's ONE HUNDRED TWENTY-FIVE TRILLION SEVEN HUNDRED EIGHTY-FIVE BILLION SIX HUNDRED MILLION FOUR HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS ) or $411,064 per person or $1,010,100 per taxpayer.




U.S. Debt Clock:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

 

[mercury14]

my stick is this: most government workers do not worry about spending money. many don’t even feel what we are in a recession. This is my personal experience as I have a war on with a couple different agencies. I’m very happy to report that I kicked ass at the last lee country school board election.

Shrug. Most private sector workers don't feel that we're in a recession either, other than they heard it on the news.

Plenty of government cuts have already been made. Not sure how that equates to people in government not feeling any kind of pinch.

 

[mercury14]

As of 1 December, 2010:



Let's take a look at the U.S. national debt outstanding and its UNFUNDED LIABILITIES as reported by http://www.usdebtclock.org. At the moment, the total stands at a stunning $125,785,600,400,000 ( for U.S. based innumerates, that's ONE HUNDRED TWENTY-FIVE TRILLION SEVEN HUNDRED EIGHTY-FIVE BILLION SIX HUNDRED MILLION FOUR HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS ) or $411,064 per person or $1,010,100 per taxpayer.




U.S. Debt Clock:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Good thing we just cut taxes on the rich. That'll help the government pay for things. In bizarro world.

 

[mercury14]

well, obama said he was going to get us out of the war
but now its his war....

Iraq is ending. It's like it's still 2004 in Jen's tiny little mind. Obama said he'd wind up the Iraq war - promise kept. But even when Obama keeps a promise Jen still faults him for breaking that promise.

 

[trysail]

Good thing we just cut taxes on the rich. That'll help the government pay for things. In bizarro world.

Anybody with half a brain knows that the first thing that needs to happen when a person has too much debt is ___*___.


*The hardest part in dealing with addicts and innumerates is that first step: PROBLEM RECOGNITION.

As of 1 December, 2010:



Let's take a look at the U.S. national debt outstanding and its UNFUNDED LIABILITIES as reported by http://www.usdebtclock.org. At the moment, the total stands at a stunning $125,785,600,400,000 ( for U.S. based innumerates, that's ONE HUNDRED TWENTY-FIVE TRILLION SEVEN HUNDRED EIGHTY-FIVE BILLION SIX HUNDRED MILLION FOUR HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS ) or $411,064 per person or $1,010,100 per taxpayer.




U.S. Debt Clock:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

 

[trysail]

This is absolutely, utterly insane. There will be hell to pay.


___________________

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adXCnV0ARihg&pos=5


Fed Spends 40% on Benchmark Treasuries as Newest Proves Cheapest
By Cordell Eddings and Daniel Kruger

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve’s Treasury purchases already have succeeded in driving investors to junk bonds and stocks. Now, policy makers are focusing on benchmark government securities, helping contain rising yields that set rates on everything from corporate debt to mortgages.

More than 40 percent of the government bonds the Fed bought in January for its so-called quantitative easing were auctioned in the previous 90 days, up from 20 percent in December and 15 percent in November, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The central bank is concentrating on newer securities as its $600 billion program depletes primary dealers’ holdings of Treasuries to the lowest since November 2009.

“They’re getting all the bang for their buck that they can” by purchasing so-called on-the-run bonds, said Mitchell Stapley, the Grand Rapids, Michigan-based chief fixed-income officer for Fifth Third Asset Management, which oversees $22 billion. “When you’re the largest buyer out there, when you replace China in terms of the size of your holdings of Treasury securities, that will happen.”

The Fed purchases are helping keep a lid on borrowing costs for companies and homebuyers as the economy recovers. Yields on corporate bonds have averaged about 4.84 percent since the buying began in November, below the 5.48 percent for all of 2010, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has been 4.61 percent, in line with 2010’s 4.69 percent and lower than the 5.93 percent of the past decade, according to Freddie Mac in McLean, Virginia.

Maintaining Demand
Quantitative easing has boosted demand for Treasuries as President Barack Obama’s budget deficits exceed $1 trillion, adding to the nation’s $8.96 trillion in marketable debt. Investors bid $3.04 for each dollar of bonds sold in the government’s $178 billion of auctions last month, the most since September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Yields on Treasuries of all maturities fell to an average of 1.88 percent in January, the first monthly drop since October, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. The benchmark 10- year note may decline to 3.52 percent at the end of the second quarter from 3.64 percent Feb. 4, based on the median estimate of 76 economists, strategist and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Current rates compare with the average of 5.26 percent during the past two decades.

Weekly Slump
The 10-year note yield increased 31 basis points last week, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 2.625 percent security due November 2020 fell 2 15/32, or $24.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 91 3/4.

Since Nov. 3, when Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke announced the plan to buy government debt to keep the economy from falling into deflation, 10-year yields have increased about one percentage point as expectations for inflation rose. The purchases and signs that the economy is recovering have reduced demand for the safety of government debt in favor of riskier assets and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has risen 9.4 percent.

Speculative-grade corporate bond yields fell to 4.68 percentage points, or 468 basis points, more than Treasuries last week, the least since November 2007 and down from 6.22 percentage points in November, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. Debt rated lower than Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service or less than BBB- by Standard & Poor’s is below investment grade, or junk.

Biggest Owner
The Fed became the biggest owner of U.S. government debt in November, when holdings reached $896.7 billion, overtaking China’s $895.6 billion, according to Treasury and central bank data. It purchased $288 billion since Nov. 12, mostly from dealers, reducing Wall Street’s holdings of long-term Treasuries to a so-called net short position of negative $22.3 billion in the week ended Jan. 19.

That means prices shown to the Fed when it buys will continue to increase, according to Credit Suisse Group AG, one the 20 primary dealers that trade directly with the central bank.

Now, the Fed is turning to benchmark bonds for quantitative easing because older, or off-the-run, securities are becoming too expensive as measured by the bid-ask spread showing the difference between the lowest price for securities offered for sale and the highest bid.

The difference between the prices at which investors are willing to buy and sell older five-year notes due February 2016 has widened to 1.0833 basis points since Nov. 3, according to Bank of America. In the five months before the Fed announcement the spread was 0.97 to 0.99 basis point. Every 0.1 basis point on $600 billion of bonds would save the Fed about $6 million.

Deficits, Inflation
Creating more demand for newer bonds gives Wall Street an added incentive to buy at government sales, helping keep benchmark yields in check.

“Dealers are more likely to bid more aggressively at Treasury auctions if they can sell to the Fed in the not-so- distant future,” strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a Jan. 31 note to investors.

While the Fed’s purchases have helped boost confidence, bigger deficits and speculation that inflation may accelerate have sent yields higher, said Larry Dyer, a U.S. interest-rate strategist in New York with HSBC Holdings Plc’s HSBC Securities unit. Treasuries lost 3.7 percent since the beginning of November, including reinvested interest, after returning 8.59 percent in the first 10 months of 2010, Bank of America Merrill Lynch data show.

“The Fed has monopoly control over front-end rates,” Dyer said. “But in bringing down long-term interest rates, the Fed is having a much tougher time.”

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&chart_type=line&graph_id=30397&category_id=0&recession_bars=Off&width=1000&height=600&bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&txtcolor=%23000000&ts=8&preserve_ratio=false&fo=ve&id=CPIAUCSL_FEDFUNDS&transformation=ch1_lin&scale=Left&range=Max&cosd=1947-01-01&coed=2010-12-01&line_color=%230000FF&link_values=&mark_type=NONE&mw=4&line_style=Solid&lw=3&vintage_date=2011-02-06_2011-02-06&revision_date=2011-02-06_2011-02-06&mma=0&nd=_&ost=&oet=&fml=b-a&fq=Monthly&fam=avg&fgst=lin

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&chart_type=line&graph_id=34214&category_id=0&recession_bars=On&width=1000&height=600&bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&txtcolor=%23000000&ts=8&preserve_ratio=false&fo=ve&id=GS20_DGS1,GS10_DGS1,GS5_GS1&transformation=lin_lin,lin_lin,lin_lin&scale=Left,Left,Left&range=Max,Max,Max&cosd=1953-04-01,1953-04-01,1953-04-01&coed=2011-02-02,2011-02-02,2010-12-01&line_color=%230000FF,%23FF0000,%23006600&link_values=,,&mark_type=NONE,NONE,NONE&mw=4,4,4&line_style=Solid,Solid,Solid&lw=3,4,4&vintage_date=2011-02-06_2011-02-06,2011-02-06_2011-02-06,2011-02-06_2011-02-06&revision_date=2011-02-06_2011-02-06,2011-02-06_2011-02-06,2011-02-06_2011-02-06&mma=0,0,0&nd=_,_,_&ost=,,&oet=,,&fml=a-b,a-b,a-b&fq=Monthly,Monthly,Monthly&fam=avg,avg,avg&fgst=lin,lin,lin


Yield Curve
Bernanke has kept the target interest-rate for overnight loans between banks in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. The difference between yields on two- and 10-year yields rose to 2.89 percentage points last week, above median of 1.81 percentage points the past decade. A widening yield curve has historically been a sign that investors anticipate a strengthening economy.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&chart_type=line&graph_id=34285&category_id=0&recession_bars=On&width=1000&height=600&bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&txtcolor=%23000000&ts=8&preserve_ratio=false&fo=ve&id=DGS1,DGS5,DGS10,DGS20&transformation=lin,lin,lin,lin&scale=Left,Left,Left,Left&range=Max,Max,Max,Max&cosd=1962-01-02,1962-01-02,1962-01-02,1993-10-01&coed=2011-02-02,2011-02-02,2011-02-02,2011-02-02&line_color=%23ff00ff,%23006600,%23FF0000,%230000FF&link_values=,,,&mark_type=NONE,NONE,NONE,NONE&mw=4,4,4,4&line_style=Solid,Solid,Solid,Solid&lw=2,2,2,1&vintage_date=2011-02-06,2011-02-06,2011-02-06,2011-02-06&revision_date=2011-02-06,2011-02-06,2011-02-06,2011-02-06&mma=0,0,0,0&nd=,,,&ost=,,,&oet=,,,&fml=a,a,a,a&fq=Daily,Daily,Daily,Daily&fam=avg,avg,avg,avg&fgst=lin,lin,lin,lin

The Institute for Supply Management said Feb. 1 that its factory index accelerated in January to the fastest pace in more than six years and the Labor Department said Feb. 4 the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 9 percent in January from 9.4 percent in December as job creation slowed amid winter storms.

Optimism on the outlook for the economy allowed companies in the U.S. to sell $159 billion of bonds last month, a record for January, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets, sold $3.5 billion last week in its largest dollar- denominated issue without government backing since 2004.

Shrinking Spreads
The bank’s new securities included $2.5 billion of 3.625 percent debt maturing in 2016 that yields 158 basis points more than similar-maturity Treasuries, Bloomberg data show. In July, Goldman Sachs issued $2.25 billion of 5-year, 3.7 percent notes that paid 205 basis points more than benchmarks.

Microsoft Corp. issued $2.25 billion of bonds, according to Bloomberg data. The Redmond, Washington-based company’s $750 million of 2.5 percent, 5-year notes were priced to yield 38 basis points more than Treasuries, compared with 40 basis points on its $1.75 billion sale of 1.625 percent, 5-year debt on Sept. 22. The new spread was the narrowest since Gillette Co. sold $300 million of 2.875 percent, 5-year debentures on March 4, 2003, at 37.5 basis points.

“Buying the newer issues has a more-direct impact on yield targeting and the Fed’s goal of keeping rates low within a range,” said George Goncalves, head of interest-rate strategy at Nomura Holdings Inc., another primary dealer. “The Fed has taken some of the liquidity out of the market, which gives their purchases more impact.”

 

[Ulaven_Demorte]

Keep cheering for failure.. Meanwhile I'm seeing even more signs of economic recovery..

I'm getting several pre-approved credit card offers a week again..

 

[Ham Murabi]

I think it's stunning that the jobless rate can drop from 9.5 to 9.0 with just 36,000 new jobs.

 

[unregistered]

 

[trysail]

Keep cheering for failure.. Meanwhile I'm seeing even more signs of economic recovery..

I'm getting several pre-approved credit card offers a week again..

I don't "cheer" for failure. I deal in reality and I only hope that I'm not around when the pigeons come home to roost.

TANSTAAFL​

 

[trysail]

The national drug overdose continues:

...We are on a path toward cyclical economic recovery and long term disaster. Some day not too far away we are going to go over the cliff. If we don’t adjust significantly and get started fairly soon, some day, our collective costs to borrow will be prohibitive and the dollar won’t be the world’s reserve currency any longer. The trickle of capital out of the U.S. will become a flood. Neither I nor anyone else can tell you whether that is a year away or a decade away. At the rate our deficit is increasing, it isn’t any longer than that...

____________________

As of 1 December, 2010:



Let's take a look at the U.S. national debt outstanding and its UNFUNDED LIABILITIES as reported by http://www.usdebtclock.org. At the moment, the total stands at a stunning $125,785,600,400,000 ( for U.S. based innumerates, that's ONE HUNDRED TWENTY-FIVE TRILLION SEVEN HUNDRED EIGHTY-FIVE BILLION SIX HUNDRED MILLION FOUR HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS ) or $411,064 per person or $1,010,100 per taxpayer.




U.S. Debt Clock:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

 

[rosco rathbone]

Thought this was kinda meta-interesting, since it deals with the intersection of politics (irrational) and reality (rational) as regards investing.

Why Politics and Investing Don't Mix

 

[koalabear]

Factories boom, but with few new workers

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41415001/ns/business-stocks_and_economy

 

[rosco rathbone]

Factories boom, but with few new workers

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41415001/ns/business-stocks_and_economy

If someone knocks and asks for "Sara Connor", run.

 

[koalabear]

If someone knocks and asks for "Sara Connor", run.

 

[unregistered]

 

[cjh]

Just heard the Clown In Chief demonstrate his total lack of economic understanding by telling the Chamber Of Commerce that the more corporations hire the more demand there will be for their products and the higher their profits will be.

So here we have the epitome of Democrat Party wisdom acknowledging a lack of demand for existing products that should be addressed by producing even more products for which there is no demand. When will he get a clue?

for some reason henry ford just came to mind.

such a clown he was.

 

[koalabear]

Just heard the Clown In Chief demonstrate his total lack of economic understanding by telling the Chamber Of Commerce that the more corporations hire the more demand there will be for their products and the higher their profits will be.

So here we have the epitome of Democrat Party wisdom acknowledging a lack of demand for existing products that should be addressed by producing even more products for which there is no demand. When will he get a clue?

If only the robots bought what they made and took out mortgages.