So handprints and trysail were wrong about oil after all

[Le Jacquelope]

In 4 months oil has dropped from $147 a barrel to under $60 a barrel.

Is anyone stupid enough to say that supply and demand was the deciding factor here?

Did people suddenly start driving half as much as they used to?

C'mon, you know that's bullshit.

Not even the rise of the dollar is enough to account for the 50% drop in oil prices that we've seen since July.


The speculators dumped out of the oil market. Big time.

Fact of history. Supply and demand had little to do with this.

 

[Bran_Hopewell]

No kidding.

I think anyone with even a basic understanding of free markets understands this; that and the fact that fuel prices had become so unbearable that many families earning less than 30K per year were forced to make some extremely tough decisions, especially those needing day care.

And I throw my bullshit flag on your bullshit call of people driving less. When gasoline consumption is down various percents around the country, in some areas as little as 1 percent, in others as great as 15% (I'll leave the fact checking to you; dates and percentages seem to vary from area to area and statistical analysis to statistical analysis), there's obviously less personal driving being done. Good still have to be delivered and people still have to commute.

Most of the people in the mid-west have cut their gas consumption to a need-basis only, opting out of vacations or even trips to see families. Tourism statistics from around the nation agree with that as well.

So yes, it's partially supply and demand, but not really.

The real clincher is the fact that oil has become the get rich quick scheme of the early 21st century, but the bubble has burst, OPEC is scrambling to get prices to at least quit falling if not rise, but it's too little too late. The world economy has been unbalanced through the price of oil and other factors and now unemployment is sky-rocketing.

I see in your information you're pro-Obama, and that's fine, but the man's got one HELL of a job in front of him to turn this mess around, and he's got to convince the rest of the world to jump on the band wagon to do it.

**please note, I wasn't for either Obama or McCain....and realistically, it doesn't matter who was elected, ANY president will be trying to ice-skate up-hill for the next decade until things straighten out. Though admittedly, some are more well equipped to handle it than others.**

 

[Le Jacquelope]

No kidding.

I think anyone with even a basic understanding of free markets understands this; that and the fact that fuel prices had become so unbearable that many families earning less than 30K per year were forced to make some extremely tough decisions, especially those needing day care.

And I throw my bullshit flag on your bullshit call of people driving less. When gasoline consumption is down various percents around the country, in some areas as little as 1 percent, in others as great as 15% (I'll leave the fact checking to you; dates and percentages seem to vary from area to area and statistical analysis to statistical analysis), there's obviously less personal driving being done. Good still have to be delivered and people still have to commute.

Okay, you're right on that. People can't cut down on their work commute but "stay-cations" were the in thing this year.

Most of the people in the mid-west have cut their gas consumption to a need-basis only, opting out of vacations or even trips to see families. Tourism statistics from around the nation agree with that as well.

So yes, it's partially supply and demand, but not really.

True, it's not the deciding factor, but it does factor in.

The real clincher is the fact that oil has become the get rich quick scheme of the early 21st century, but the bubble has burst, OPEC is scrambling to get prices to at least quit falling if not rise, but it's too little too late. The world economy has been unbalanced through the price of oil and other factors and now unemployment is sky-rocketing.

Ayup, spot on. Can't say much to that.

I see in your information you're pro-Obama, and that's fine, but the man's got one HELL of a job in front of him to turn this mess around, and he's got to convince the rest of the world to jump on the band wagon to do it.

**please note, I wasn't for either Obama or McCain....and realistically, it doesn't matter who was elected, ANY president will be trying to ice-skate up-hill for the next decade until things straighten out. Though admittedly, some are more well equipped to handle it than others.**

I'm watching Obama like a hawk.

I'm mired in the same personal failing I had when I cheered Rush Limbaugh and the Republicans for winning his revolution against Liberals in 1994: immediately, I became suspect of how far they would go. I feel the same urgings now. I've already stepped off the Obama cult of personality train and am quite nervous about his attempts to be an epic president. But at the same time, he is facing an epic economic disaster, so there you go.

Liberals now own the Presidency and Congress, and a lot of Governorships. America is back out of balance again. I'm worried about this, even though I hope the world never sees a Conservative in control of anything beyond the office of dog catcher ever again.

I fought like hell for Obama to get in there, but I still know that he's just a man. He never walked on water during his campaign.

 

[AvoidingRealWork]

Supply/Demand? Speculation? I don't give a shit as long as gas stays at $1.57/gal.

 

[Bran_Hopewell]

Supply/Demand? Speculation? I don't give a shit as long as gas stays at $1.57/gal.

I second that. I haven't seen it that low yet, but it's coming.

I didn't go near a gas station today, but Friday it was $1.85 at the end of the day for 10% ethanol.

 

[AvoidingRealWork]

I second that. I haven't seen it that low yet, but it's coming.

I didn't go near a gas station today, but Friday it was $1.85 at the end of the day for 10% ethanol.

For some reason we have about the cheapest gas in the country right now, despite that we had the most expensive gas back when it was $4/gal (part of that was refinery issues). So gas has dropped from $4.15 in mid-September to now $1.57. Unreal.

 

[Bran_Hopewell]

For some reason we have about the cheapest gas in the country right now, despite that we had the most expensive gas back when it was $4/gal (part of that was refinery issues). So gas has dropped from $4.15 in mid-September to now $1.57. Unreal.

It's crazy.

My father-in-law lives in South Dakota and he just about ran his farm barrels dry. He bought 1000 gallons when it was still two bucks a gallon, he's buying another 1000 now that it's below two bucks.

Lucky man....and he likes to share his good fortune with his daughters when they visit

 

[Le Jacquelope]

I second that. I haven't seen it that low yet, but it's coming.

I didn't go near a gas station today, but Friday it was $1.85 at the end of the day for 10% ethanol.

I hope America remembers the schoolyard bully that is the oil industry, and that we don't get complacent.

This is the time to kick them in the head and send a message that goes beyond cold hard market gyrations. We need to show them quite clearly that America is a vengeful country and that we will actively seek to punish those who hit us as hard as the oil industry did especially this last year.

We need to push really really hard now for more fuel efficient cars and alternative fuels, plus encourage telecommuting where it is logically possible. Encourage employers to give people the option of 4x10 work days and beef up our public transportation.

Cancel the war in Iraq and the corporate bailouts and establish a public works system specifically aimed at making this happen, and every step along the way we should be saying to the oil industry... never again.

 

[Bran_Hopewell]

I hope America remembers the schoolyard bully that is the oil industry, and that we don't get complacent.

This is the time to kick them in the head and send a message that goes beyond cold hard market gyrations. We need to show them quite clearly that America is a vengeful country and that we will actively seek to punish those who hit us as hard as the oil industry did especially this last year.

We need to push really really hard now for more fuel efficient cars and alternative fuels, plus encourage telecommuting where it is logically possible. Encourage employers to give people the option of 4x10 work days and beef up our public transportation.

Cancel the war in Iraq and the corporate bailouts and establish a public works system specifically aimed at making this happen, and every step along the way we should be saying to the oil industry... never again.

Many of the best economists in the world are basically saying the same thing. If America goes gas crazy again, we'll go from world economic panic to world-wide depression. Part of me thinks that's cool; it's just a matter of identifying stocks that will survive the depression and holding on to them until it's time to retire.

The other part of me is considering the fact that I still have to eat.

 

[Le Jacquelope]

Many of the best economists in the world are basically saying the same thing. If America goes gas crazy again, we'll go from world economic panic to world-wide depression. Part of me thinks that's cool; it's just a matter of identifying stocks that will survive the depression and holding on to them until it's time to retire.

The other part of me is considering the fact that I still have to eat.

Indeed. The oil crisis has led to starvation in Haiti and other places due to the difficulty of transporting food. Food prices skyrocketing all around the world. That would have been the Godzilla stomping its way across the global economy. Er, on second thought, it was Godzilla. The subprime collapse was the proverbial Cloverfield[/i] monster.

As for a depression, we have more to worry about from China going gas crazy. Thanks to our offshoring of our good jobs to China, their middle class is inevitably going to go gasoline crazy on a level that makes us look like Tahiti. Then India will follow. Real demand at that point will be off the charts, not anything in the universe like it is today.

Economic depression? I wish. When China and India mature, you're looking at gas prices going through the stratosphere, shortages (we had that briefly already), rationing, the very economic engine itself coming to one screeching halt after another. What happens next, well, I'll leave that to the Goth sceners to describe for ya.

 

[Bran_Hopewell]

What happens next, well, I'll leave that to the Goth sceners to describe for ya.

I think Ghostbusters said it best.

40 Years of Darkness....Rivers and Seas boiling....the Dead Rising from the Grave...Dogs and Cats, living together: MASS HYSTERIA!

Will it be that bad, not quite, but Obama Blankets has a better ring than Hoover Blankets.

 

[Le Jacquelope]

I think Ghostbusters said it best.

40 Years of Darkness....Rivers and Seas boiling....the Dead Rising from the Grave...Dogs and Cats, living together: MASS HYSTERIA!

Will it be that bad, not quite, but Obama Blankets has a better ring than Hoover Blankets.

LOL! I like to call it... "Fallout 3" but without nukes. (You have to be a gamer to know what I'm talking about.)

As for Obama blankets... will those be made in the USA, or China? And will China finish us off by poisoning them with the pox? (Wouldn't that be karma!)

Srsly though.

I hear Obama has some ties to the corn ethanol industry. This is of major concern to me. Corn based ethanol is the most epic failed attempt of them all, to get us into the alt fuels industry. That alone has driven food prices up dramatically due to the squeeze on the corn supply. And it's FAR less efficient than sugar based ethanol.

So what's the best type of fuel system? Hydrogen/electric hybrid? Biodiesel/electric? Flex fuel?

Whatever system comes into place, I'd like to hope one thing comes of Obama's change: that we start slapping solar panels on top of every Government roof in America, and heavily subsidize solar on top of homes. There are even designer bags now touting solar panels on them (I forgot the darned name of the company, darn it). Solar, solar everywhere.

Solutions. Let's talk solutions, America. No, wait, let's just do it.

 

[Bran_Hopewell]

I hear Obama has some ties to the corn ethanol industry. This is of major concern to me. Corn based ethanol is the most epic failed attempt of them all, to get us into the alt fuels industry. That alone has driven food prices up dramatically due to the squeeze on the corn supply. And it's FAR less efficient than sugar based ethanol.

So what's the best type of fuel system? Hydrogen/electric hybrid? Biodiesel/electric? Flex fuel?

First off, Fallout rocks.

I'll take a major point with you on the Ethanol, though....and probably just because I'm surrounded by ethanol plants and farmers.

We don't use food for ethanol. We use field corn. If anything, it's only impacting the other farmers that use it for live stock feed. Field corn is good for turning into cornmeal, and that's about it. Sweet corn or any of the corn that's actually sold in cans is not what gets turned into ethanol. Completely different. It would be like saying popcorn prices are going to go up because of ethanol.

However, you do have an unstated point in that ethanol isn't as efficient as gasohol based fuels. I've heard amazing things about 30% blends, but E-85 is a joke. Pure ethanol is the way to go, but it's so expensive and unstable that it's not worth the hassle.

Personally, I think hydrogen or hydrogen-oxygen fuel cells are the way to go. Clean, efficient, and the by-product is water and nothing more. Clean fuel in, clean waste out.

 

[Le Jacquelope]

First off, Fallout rocks.

Boy howdy, I tell ya, I never imagined Bethesda "Elder Scrolls" Softworks would turn that game into a gib fest. This game is more gibbalicious than the average Quake deathmatch. And that battle outside GNR was friggin epic. I'm glad I saved before I got there so I can do it over and over again. Sometimes I go in with the Shishkebab or the Ripper, other times I like to use Fat Man. Boom. Butidigress. I could go on about any one aspect of that game for hours.

I'll take a major point with you on the Ethanol, though....and probably just because I'm surrounded by ethanol plants and farmers.

We don't use food for ethanol. We use field corn. If anything, it's only impacting the other farmers that use it for live stock feed. Field corn is good for turning into cornmeal, and that's about it. Sweet corn or any of the corn that's actually sold in cans is not what gets turned into ethanol. Completely different. It would be like saying popcorn prices are going to go up because of ethanol.

Hmmm, okay. So it's not the corn-in-cans that are being squeezed by the ethanol craze, it's the livestock feed that's becoming more expensive, which is why meat and dairy products are going up, and everything related to that. And cornmeal's the ingredient for tortillas, which is why Mexicans are protesting like crazy about rising tortilla prices.

However, you do have an unstated point in that ethanol isn't as efficient as gasohol based fuels. I've heard amazing things about 30% blends, but E-85 is a joke. Pure ethanol is the way to go, but it's so expensive and unstable that it's not worth the hassle.

Personally, I think hydrogen or hydrogen-oxygen fuel cells are the way to go. Clean, efficient, and the by-product is water and nothing more. Clean fuel in, clean waste out.

The issue then is how to produce the hydrogen.

How hard is it to make pure ethanol from sugar?

 

[Bran_Hopewell]

The issue then is how to produce the hydrogen.

How hard is it to make pure ethanol from sugar?

FPS Happy fun time. I'm getting older and the reflexes are slowing down, but hell yes.

I'll give you the meat and dairy price increase, though those seem to be going down in my part of the world, decreasing in proportion to the fuel prices (which is stupid because a truck carrying 1,000 gallons of milk spreads 2 dollars of difference in fuel over 1,000 gallons....it should not correlate to a dollar drop in the price of a gallon of milk, but I'm not complaining).

If done properly, the hydrogen fuel cells can be done in a unit inside the car, in real time so you don't have to store it. This isn't the link to the video that I've seen a couple of times now, but it explains the science and shows the effects:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6YYUOx6fBU

The ethanol from sugar I don't know (I'm not sure of the chemistry), but if we do that, are we not doing the same thing to the price of everything that uses sucrose that we are currently doing to tortillas?

 

[Le Jacquelope]

It's now July of 2009 and oil prices are still under $70/barrel. So what has gone wrong with gasoline prices?

The speculators are back, the gasoline refineries are cutting production to maintain profit levels, and OPEC has been cutting production as well.

Supply and Demand is working strongly against oil prices, but still, they're going up, up, up.


We're basically shoveling dirt over Trysail and Handprints' theories at this point...

 

[Handley_Page]

Don't buy petrol in the UK then.
It's £1.03 per litre. Say £3.80 per US gallon? at $1.62 to the pound ?

 

[Le Jacquelope]

Don't buy petrol in the UK then.
It's £1.03 per litre. Say £3.80 per US gallon? at $1.62 to the pound ?

It's always higher in Europe, especially England. I believe it's due to higher taxes. Some less sane American commentators have been suggesting we establish a tax based price floor of $4/gallon. (So far we haven't put these commentators to the wall before a firing squad yet. Because the Government ain't listening to them, LOL.)

I get fairly unclear personal views about what kind of fuel the fine blokes in Britain use to haul things like food and, thus, what effect petrol prices have on the cost of food. But one thing is sure: if we had a mandatory $4 price floor on gasoline in America, the cost of food would go through the roof. We know for sure in America that we use gasoline (diesel) to haul food and a rise in gasoline prices mean a rise in food prices... for sure.

We've been addicted to petrol for a century. At what point do we get back to innovation in this industry and move on to a new technology?

 

[Le Jacquelope]

The day of reckoning is at hand for at least some of the robber barons in the oil industry...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/energy-stock-sell-off-moves-into-third-day?siteid=yhoof

Energy Stocks

Jul 7, 2009, 4:15 p.m. EST
Energy stocks feel weight of CFTC speculation probe
Energy stocks move into third day of losses

By Steve Gelsi, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Energy stocks moved into their third straight session of bruising losses on Tuesday as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission set plans to hold hearings on whether it should apply position limits to speculators in oil and other energy futures.