Ok...this is "off the rails"

[Jenny_Jackson]

I know you've heard the Geraldine Ferrarow shot her mouth off saying, to paraphrase, Obama wouldn't "be where he is" except that he's black.

RACISM! screams Obama.

Geraldine replys. Obama counters. Clinton's campaign manager (a black woman, by the way) sends a scathing email in response.

Get off it!

Do not assume I am a racist. However, Geraldine was, in a way, correct. Obama himself likes to point out that 90% of blacks vote for him. He has done well in the deep south where there are large black democratic populations. He hasn't done well in California or the Northeast where the democrats tend to be white, middle class, blue collar workers.

Case in point - the Primary Election today in Mississippi, where 37% of the population are registered Democrats and 90% of those are black. Obama won by a substantial margine and added a net of 3 delegates.

At the same time, the polls out today show Clinton increasing her lead to about the same 60/40 split in Pennsylvania with 155 delegates at stake (Which would give Clinton a net of about 93 delegates) in a state made up of white, middle class, blue collar workers.

I'm beginning to find this whole thing quite boring and expecting the Obam people to put out some harrang about Clinton's sex. <Shaking head and going to bed>

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Can you say "President McCain?"

 

[Darkniciad]

If Hillary doesn't bow out gracefully - and soon - that's a stronger likliehood by the day. By the time you add up all the people who'll be disgusted with the Dem primary before it's over, the people who'll tell pollsters one thing and then say "I ain't votin' for no n*****" once they're in the booth ( If Hillary steals it with Superdelegates, that's even worse ), and those that will cross over because they don't like Hillary, don't trust Obama's inexperience, and can find some common ground with McCain, the Hate Republicans "change" craze isn't going to be enough.

The only thing that could salvage it is a combined ticket, and I get the feeling Obama would tell Hillary to go fuck herself if he's in the top spot. If he's on the bottom of the ticket because Hillary steals it with superdelegates, I don't think it does any good after she pulls a "Bush 2000", and could very likely send both of their future chances to run successfully off the rails and over the cliff.

McCain won't even need to move to the right to win, the way things are careening. Independants, crossovers, straight-ticket Republicans, and the conservatives that vote for him because the other choice scares the shit out of them will do the trick.

 

[elfin_odalisque]

http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj202/ellephinn/cartoon-385_274229a.jpg

 

[xssve]

What, like no candidate has ever used his cultural background to his/her advantage? Clinton isn't trying to use her sex to gain an advantage among women? George H. used the race card against Dukakis in '88 to devastating effect.

This is politics - at least neither one of them is an ivy league fratboy trust funder or bad Hollywood actor trying to pretend they're a man of the Earth.

Some of the rumors about McCain are undoubtedly true, even he admits they broke him - he still plays the war hero angle, and why not? the difference between him and the chicken hawks is that whatever else he did, he stepped up, he didn't run and hide.

 

[Jenny_Jackson]

I see this morning where Obama is claiming that Farraro and Clinton are "spliting the Democratic Party." What a bunch of bullshit. Obama is the only one who can split the party and he's doing a nice job. I'm so glad to see that finally the New York Times and Washington Post are looking into HIS past. My question is - why didn't anyone do that a year ago?

I don't condone Hillary's seeming non-condumnation of Farraro just as I don't condone Obama's illusion that winning in a southern black state with only 37% Democrats means he can do anything in a General Election - Anything, like WIN.

I dug deep last night to look at the actual polls - not what ABC, CBS and NBC say the polls say. What I found is Clinton and Obama will be dead even after Pennsylvania. Obama has about as much chance of winning there as Clinton did in Mississippi. The delegate count will be vertually even. Obama will lose Oregon, a state Obama is counting on, and most of the remaining 20 some odd primary states with only a few exceptions.

Looking at head to head with McCain Obama is lagging 54-45. Hillary leads 54-46. A Hillary/Obama ticket sits at 55/44. An Obama/Hillary ticket is dead even. That tells me Obama isn't as popular as he wants everyone to believe. If he keeps screwing around we will have McCain and four (or eight) more years of Bush.

 

[rgraham666]

You're going to have eight more years of Bush.

Sorry.

 

[Carnevil9]

I agree with Geraldine, but I'm surprised that she is so naive as to publicly speak an "unacceptable truth" like that.

 

[Jenny_Jackson]

I agree with Geraldine, but I'm surprised that she is so naive as to publicly speak an "unacceptable truth" like that.

That's right, Carney. Obama has played the race card from the very beginning. Farraro should have done this in a little more professional way, like leaking it to the Druge Report then denying everything

 

[neonlyte]

What does Obama have to gain by playing the 'black card'? Everyone knows he's black, some foolishly believe he's Muslim. I can't see how McCain can win regardless of who leads the Dem ticket. My fear is which ever Dem wins, I count the chance of them seeing out their term as less than even, America will get either it's first Black President or first Woman President, the only thing in dispute is the order.

 

[sr71plt]

What does Obama have to gain by playing the 'black card'? Everyone knows he's black, some foolishly believe he's Muslim. I can't see how McCain can win regardless of who leads the Dem ticket. My fear is which ever Dem wins, I count the chance of them seeing out their term as less than even, America will get either it's first Black President or first Woman President, the only thing in dispute is the order.

I agree with this. Folks, who seem to have to have something to ventilate at every moment, are playing Chicken Little with this Obama-Clinton struggle. McCain has an uphill battle (even within his own camp) regardless of whatever Democrat gets the nomination. This was pointed out in a CNN program the other day--the Democrats are getting most of the campaign contribution money (almost unheard of in recent centuries) and out polling the Republicans by big total vote numbers in every single state primary. Anything can happen up to the close of election polls in November, of course, but what the primary statistics point to well outside the entertainment of the Clinton-Obama struggle, is that the nation has been overwhelming focused throughout the process so far on which Democrat to put in the White House.

What I think is absolutely clear is that both Clinton and Obama are party and political animals enough to turn on a dime after there is a nominee and work their little hearts out to refocus their supporters on a party win. Both of them have important races to run after this. If anyone here is on a last election stand, it's McCain.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Dont be too sure.

Hillary & Obama are spending all their money on the nomination. McCain is banking his.

 

[elfin_odalisque]

Jenny, can I query you on the math. As I count it there is no way, excluding the super delegates, that Hillary can get to the convention ahead of Obama.

That's assuming she can't resurrect Florida without a new primary.

I don't know if you've seen the latest stats from Texas, but it looks as though Obama has won it. Clinton called the vote for her but, as the caucus results come in, it looks like Obama has won the caucus vote by 38 delegates to 30. That would give him the state by 99 to 96. Even the Texas Democrat's site is hedging bets and Obama's site is boasting. For the story, try this;

Texas_primary

Personally, I think the runoff should be between the lean, mean, fighting machines of Clinton and McCain, but I.m not sure we're going to get Rocky'08.

 

[sr71plt]

Dont be too sure.

Hillary & Obama are spending all their money on the nomination. McCain is banking his.

Ever the immovable Alamo assertion, eh JBJ? Let's just watch what happens and check back in on this, shall we? I'm prepared to be surprised--while I assume you're prepared to ignore and pretend it didn't happen.

Didn't you say somewhere on a thread or two that McCain didn't have a chance in hell of winning the nomination? Wasn't the ever-victorious Fred whatshisname your shoe in?

 

[sr71plt]

Jenny, can I query you on the math. As I count it there is no way, excluding the super delegates, that Hillary can get to the convention ahead of Obama.

She could hire a faster taxi, couldn't she? (Sorry, couldn't resist)

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

No.

I didnt care for Fred Thompson. I think I said McCain didnt have a prayer of winning the November election. But he may if the Dems step on their dicks.

I personally want Hillary to win. I've said several times that Hillary in the White House is like Lucy's evil twin in the White House.

 

[Huckleman2000]

Sorry Jenny, but I think your math is a bit off. Obama leads in both delegates and popular vote totals, and has consistently beat McCain in head-to-head polling at the national level. Ferraro's thinly-veiled racism seems to be a particularly ugly piece of the "kitchen sink" strategy employed by the Clinton camp in recent weeks.

For Hillary to get the nomination, she has to rely on the Superdelegates, which strikes me as a recipe for disaster if, as expected, Obama gets to the convention with a lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote.

From a purely pragmatic standpoint, if Obama's black votes bring Southern states into play in the general election, that would be a huge plus. While Hillary won New York and Massachusetts, no one expects those states to go red in the general, regardless of who's the nominee.

And, as far as I know, voting in Florida and Ohio has little to do with who gets their electoral votes, so Hillary's wins there don't mean anything anyway.

 

[Jenny_Jackson]

Jenny, can I query you on the math. As I count it there is no way, excluding the super delegates, that Hillary can get to the convention ahead of Obama.

That's assuming she can't resurrect Florida without a new primary.

I don't know if you've seen the latest stats from Texas, but it looks as though Obama has won it. Clinton called the vote for her but, as the caucus results come in, it looks like Obama has won the caucus vote by 38 delegates to 30. That would give him the state by 99 to 96. Even the Texas Democrat's site is hedging bets and Obama's site is boasting. For the story, try this;

Texas_primary

Personally, I think the runoff should be between the lean, mean, fighting machines of Clinton and McCain, but I.m not sure we're going to get Rocky'08.

I've seen the number, Elle. The problem is, Obama can't collect enough delegates either unless he wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Oregon by landslides. With Hilary leading in Pennsylvania by 15% he won't have a landslide there. Oregon is (regardless of what the pundits say) going for Hilary (a winner take all state, I believe).

Now the talk on Florida is a mail-in do-over. With all the elderly in Florida, Hilary will do alright there again.

 

[Belegon]

I've seen the number, Elle. The problem is, Obama can't collect enough delegates either unless he wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Oregon by landslides. With Hilary leading in Pennsylvania by 15% he won't have a landslide there. Oregon is (regardless of what the pundits say) going for Hilary (a winner take all state, I believe).

Now the talk on Florida is a mail-in do-over. With all the elderly in Florida, Hilary will do alright there again.

Having just spent the weekend in Portland and gotten a feel for the city, I would say Oregon goes to Obama unless that city is totally off-kilter from the rest of the state.

 

[Quesla]

Hello? *Canuck here*! Haven't been following American politics at all, but there's been many references to "Aboma?" Is that a pun on Bush or what? Just Curious, since NOBODY! LIKES! ben ladin even us Canucks and that's the only other nutcase I can think of who could be refered to as Aboma?

 

[Huckleman2000]

Hello? *Canuck here*! Haven't been following American politics at all, but there's been many references to "Aboma?" Is that a pun on Bush or what? Just Curious, since NOBODY! LIKES! ben ladin even us Canucks and that's the only other nutcase I can think of who could be refered to as Aboma?

Quesla, Barack Obama is the name of the leading Democratic candidate. He is the son of a white American woman and a black man from Kenya, hence his unusual name.

 

[Jenny_Jackson]

Having just spent the weekend in Portland and gotten a feel for the city, I would say Oregon goes to Obama unless that city is totally off-kilter from the rest of the state.

If you wander around downtown Portland, you will find it is dominated by Portland State University. PSU is all for Obama. There is an area in northeast that is predominatly black that will go Obama. The rest of the east side all the way to Gresham is white, middle class, blue collar workers. That Clinton country. The west side is made up of very conserviative democratic, college educated people. The far west side is hispanic. The rest of the state is arch conservative Republicans who generally seem to vote Democratic. Oregon is a weird state. Always has been. But it's still not liberal enough to trust and vote for a new comer. You have to get outside the city to really see where Oregon's head is at.

I talk to a lot of people. There just doesn't seem to be any real good feelings about Obama where there is about Hillary.

When it comes to the general election, on November 3rd, 2/3rd of the young college kids who support Obama will be off to the state colleges in Eugene, Monmouth or Corvallis. At $4.00 per gallon they won't drive home to vote. Another large number, like my nephew will be at Penn State or some other out of state University. This is true of most states. And that dismisses are large voting block for Obama.

 

[Jenny_Jackson]

In a way this is both sad and funny. Geraldine F resigned from her volunteer, unpaid position with the Clinton Campaign Committee. The sad part is how Obama joined by the new media jumped on her. It seems as though we have come to a place where racism is so taboo among the white population that even a suggestion is enough to ruin you. Fear and eventual reprisals. And it doesn't seem to matter that there was a certain ring of truth to Geraldine's words and were not meant as a racial slur, but only a statement of fact. So you got what you wanted, Obama.

Now the funny part. Geraldine is completly unapologenic about her remarks and, although she is no longer working as an unpaid, volunteer fund raiser, will continue on as a volunteer fund raiser for Hillary Clinton. That's pretty funny when you think about it.

 

[sr71plt]

In a way this is both sad and funny. Geraldine F resigned from her volunteer, unpaid position with the Clinton Campaign Committee. The sad part is how Obama joined by the new media jumped on her. It seems as though we have come to a place where racism is so taboo among the white population that even a suggestion is enough to ruin you. Fear and eventual reprisals. And it doesn't seem to matter that there was a certain ring of truth to Geraldine's words and were not meant as a racial slur, but only a statement of fact. So you got what you wanted, Obama.

Now the funny part. Geraldine is completly unapologenic about her remarks and, although she is no longer working as an unpaid, volunteer fund raiser, will continue on as a volunteer fund raiser for Hillary Clinton. That's pretty funny when you think about it.

Ann Richards would have just given a horse laugh and said, "It's true and relevant to politics; just get over it," and carried on as usual.

 

[colddiesel]

???

The only issue is 'Who can beat McCain?'

The only question is 'Will white blue collar voters vote for Obama?'

My view is that at least 10% of blue collar regular democrat voters are sufficiently racist that they will vote for anybody to avoid having a black President. That seems to indicate Clinton as the candidate more likely to win. Not necessarily the best candidate but the one with the best chance.

Someone else said Clinton should retire gracefully. Why ? Clinton doesn't do graceful, one of the few things I like about her.