trysail
Catch Me Who Can
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2005
- Posts
- 25,593
Do you understand that the United States of America is bankrupt?
Balance Sheet
The United States of America
Assets.....................................Liabilities
..............................................Social Security.....$11,000,000,000,000
..............................................Medicare.............. 66,000,000,000,000
..............................................Treasury Debt.........9,000,000,000,000
.........................................Total Liabilities......$86,000,000,000,000
Source:https://personal.vanguard.com/VGApp...0252006_ALL.jsp
(pasted below)
Against these known liabilities, the government has the ability to tax:
The whole stock market.........................~$18,000,000,000,000
All of the privately owned real estate.........~35,000,000,000,000
(basically, that's the net worth of everybody in the whole country)
________________________________________________
November 2, 2006
Interview: Can you count on Social Security?
Olivia S. Mitchell is the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. She is also a professor of Insurance and Risk Management at Wharton and serves as director of the Pension Research Council and Boettner Center for Pensions and Retirement Research.
Professor Mitchell recently spoke with Vanguard.com® about the future of Social Security. The statements and views expressed in this interview are Professor Mitchell's and do not necessarily reflect those of Vanguard.
"We have a few years left to fix Social Security, but if we don't fix it now, the huge claim that will also be made on the economy and on our resources by Medicare will undo the possibilities for Social Security reform."
– Professor Olivia Mitchell
There's a lot of confusion about the state of Social Security. Is the system in trouble?
Professor Mitchell: Social Security is currently taking in more money than it needs to pay Grandma. That surplus is being delivered to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, which in exchange gives the Social Security Administration an IOU in the form of special nonnegotiable bonds. There are about $1.9 trillion worth of these government bonds in a file cabinet in West Virginia.
Then what is the crisis facing Social Security?
Professor Mitchell: The time will come, probably within about a dozen years, when there won't be enough revenue from payroll taxes to pay the benefits currently promised.
So in 2018 or so, retirees will get letters telling them, "Sorry. There's no more money to pay you"?
Professor Mitchell: No. When tax revenues going into the Social Security system start to fall short, the Social Security Administration will have the right to go to the Treasury and start cashing in those IOUs.
If Social Security can lay claim to $1.9 trillion, what's the problem?
Professor Mitchell: The problem is that Treasury has already spent those funds. There's no money sitting around waiting to be given back. As a result, when Social Security starts cashing in its IOUs, Treasury is going to have to figure out how to raise the funds. It will have to raise taxes; cut expenditures for things such as education, roads, and warships; or issue new bonds and pass the debt on to future generations. Someone is going to pay.
Suppose, though, that Treasury does find the money to redeem those IOUs it gave the Social Security Administration. Does that put the system back on solid footing?
Professor Mitchell: No, because in about 2040 that Treasury file cabinet in West Virginia will be empty. There will be no more IOUs. At that point benefits will have to be cut by about one-third, or taxes will have to be increased by 50% to 80% to keep the system going.
And there would be no way to avoid that?
Professor Mitchell: One solution would be to change the way benefits are calculated. Under the current formula, benefits are raised every year at the rate at which wages are increasing. That is about 1.0% to 1.5% higher than the cost-of-living indexes.
I served on a recent presidential commission that recommended benefits be tied to cost-of-living increases instead of being tied to wage increases. You would always have the same purchasing power under this formula. At the same time, this simple change would bring the system back into solvency, with money left over to raise benefits for people at the bottom of the economic scale, to give more to elderly widows, and to make the system more equitable for low-wage workers.
What happened?
Professor Mitchell: Congress refused to consider Social Security reform seriously, unfortunately. What concerns me deeply is that postponing the decision is just wasting time. We have a few years left to fix Social Security, but if we don't fix it now, the huge claim that will also be made on the economy and on our resources by Medicare will undo the possibilities for Social Security reform.
How does Medicare fit into the Social Security problem?
Professor Mitchell: The current unfunded liability of Social Security is about $11 trillion. That is the additional money needed to pay current promised benefits. By contrast, Medicare's unfunded liabilities are gargantuan, about $66 trillion.
It is ironic that when Medicare Part D, the drug bill, passed, this boosted Medicare's underfunding problem by about $35 trillion. Yet this was never mentioned when the bill was passed―by either political party.
Many other countries ration health care for the elderly based on age. That is not something we have wanted to do, so far. But if we are unwilling to ration supply, we will have to raise taxes to pay for the rapidly mushrooming health care costs. Yet again, neither political party has confronted this certainty.
So little or nothing is being done to fix Social Security. Medicare will present us with its own huge bill or force us to ration health care. All that sounds pretty bleak.
Professor Mitchell: I agree that there seem to be huge risks and few degrees of freedom. Yet there are some factors under your control.
One of them is to keep working—if possible—until you are age 70 or 75. This boosts eventual retirement income because your assets are saved and invested longer.
Another is to invest in your human capital. Get new training. Educate yourself. If you are 50 years old, realize you might have another 25 years in the workforce. So there is no earthly reason to refuse to learn the newest version of your computer software "because I am going to retire soon." That is not likely to leave you in a good position to get a job in your next life.
You can also invest in your own good health. People who make an effort to stay in good health in their 50s are much better off in their 70s and 80s. Not only will they need less money to take care of their health, but they will also feel better.
Save more. Some people think that it's too late to start when they are in their 50s. Naturally, starting younger is better, but you can make a big difference if you save another few years.
If you are a retiree already, consider unretiring. Go back to work, even part-time if you must.
You can also cut back on consumption. The first reaction is, "That is terrible." But it is a viable and sensible thing to think about. Recent surveys show that after retirement, consumption tends to fall by about 20%. You don't have to pay for parking. You don't have to pay for expensive work clothes and the long commute. You can spend more time cooking gourmet meals rather than going to restaurants.
Other options are also worth mentioning for those who are not intending to return to work. You can buy annuities to avoid the worry of outliving your money. You can buy long-term-care insurance if you are worried about being bankrupted by going into a nursing home. Inflation-linked investments are now available for the retiree concerned about inflation's drag on spending.
At the end of the day, though, you should think broadly about the resources you carry with you into retirement. Financial capital is only one part of the picture. There is also health capital, of course, and intellectual capital. And let's not forget social capital, by which I mean your relationships, your community ties, your networks, your hobbies. Retirement is not just about money.
Thank you, Professor Mitchell.
Balance Sheet
The United States of America
Assets.....................................Liabilities
..............................................Social Security.....$11,000,000,000,000
..............................................Medicare.............. 66,000,000,000,000
..............................................Treasury Debt.........9,000,000,000,000
.........................................Total Liabilities......$86,000,000,000,000
Source:https://personal.vanguard.com/VGApp...0252006_ALL.jsp
(pasted below)
Against these known liabilities, the government has the ability to tax:
The whole stock market.........................~$18,000,000,000,000
All of the privately owned real estate.........~35,000,000,000,000
(basically, that's the net worth of everybody in the whole country)
________________________________________________
November 2, 2006
Interview: Can you count on Social Security?
Olivia S. Mitchell is the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. She is also a professor of Insurance and Risk Management at Wharton and serves as director of the Pension Research Council and Boettner Center for Pensions and Retirement Research.
Professor Mitchell recently spoke with Vanguard.com® about the future of Social Security. The statements and views expressed in this interview are Professor Mitchell's and do not necessarily reflect those of Vanguard.
"We have a few years left to fix Social Security, but if we don't fix it now, the huge claim that will also be made on the economy and on our resources by Medicare will undo the possibilities for Social Security reform."
– Professor Olivia Mitchell
There's a lot of confusion about the state of Social Security. Is the system in trouble?
Professor Mitchell: Social Security is currently taking in more money than it needs to pay Grandma. That surplus is being delivered to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, which in exchange gives the Social Security Administration an IOU in the form of special nonnegotiable bonds. There are about $1.9 trillion worth of these government bonds in a file cabinet in West Virginia.
Then what is the crisis facing Social Security?
Professor Mitchell: The time will come, probably within about a dozen years, when there won't be enough revenue from payroll taxes to pay the benefits currently promised.
So in 2018 or so, retirees will get letters telling them, "Sorry. There's no more money to pay you"?
Professor Mitchell: No. When tax revenues going into the Social Security system start to fall short, the Social Security Administration will have the right to go to the Treasury and start cashing in those IOUs.
If Social Security can lay claim to $1.9 trillion, what's the problem?
Professor Mitchell: The problem is that Treasury has already spent those funds. There's no money sitting around waiting to be given back. As a result, when Social Security starts cashing in its IOUs, Treasury is going to have to figure out how to raise the funds. It will have to raise taxes; cut expenditures for things such as education, roads, and warships; or issue new bonds and pass the debt on to future generations. Someone is going to pay.
Suppose, though, that Treasury does find the money to redeem those IOUs it gave the Social Security Administration. Does that put the system back on solid footing?
Professor Mitchell: No, because in about 2040 that Treasury file cabinet in West Virginia will be empty. There will be no more IOUs. At that point benefits will have to be cut by about one-third, or taxes will have to be increased by 50% to 80% to keep the system going.
And there would be no way to avoid that?
Professor Mitchell: One solution would be to change the way benefits are calculated. Under the current formula, benefits are raised every year at the rate at which wages are increasing. That is about 1.0% to 1.5% higher than the cost-of-living indexes.
I served on a recent presidential commission that recommended benefits be tied to cost-of-living increases instead of being tied to wage increases. You would always have the same purchasing power under this formula. At the same time, this simple change would bring the system back into solvency, with money left over to raise benefits for people at the bottom of the economic scale, to give more to elderly widows, and to make the system more equitable for low-wage workers.
What happened?
Professor Mitchell: Congress refused to consider Social Security reform seriously, unfortunately. What concerns me deeply is that postponing the decision is just wasting time. We have a few years left to fix Social Security, but if we don't fix it now, the huge claim that will also be made on the economy and on our resources by Medicare will undo the possibilities for Social Security reform.
How does Medicare fit into the Social Security problem?
Professor Mitchell: The current unfunded liability of Social Security is about $11 trillion. That is the additional money needed to pay current promised benefits. By contrast, Medicare's unfunded liabilities are gargantuan, about $66 trillion.
It is ironic that when Medicare Part D, the drug bill, passed, this boosted Medicare's underfunding problem by about $35 trillion. Yet this was never mentioned when the bill was passed―by either political party.
Many other countries ration health care for the elderly based on age. That is not something we have wanted to do, so far. But if we are unwilling to ration supply, we will have to raise taxes to pay for the rapidly mushrooming health care costs. Yet again, neither political party has confronted this certainty.
So little or nothing is being done to fix Social Security. Medicare will present us with its own huge bill or force us to ration health care. All that sounds pretty bleak.
Professor Mitchell: I agree that there seem to be huge risks and few degrees of freedom. Yet there are some factors under your control.
One of them is to keep working—if possible—until you are age 70 or 75. This boosts eventual retirement income because your assets are saved and invested longer.
Another is to invest in your human capital. Get new training. Educate yourself. If you are 50 years old, realize you might have another 25 years in the workforce. So there is no earthly reason to refuse to learn the newest version of your computer software "because I am going to retire soon." That is not likely to leave you in a good position to get a job in your next life.
You can also invest in your own good health. People who make an effort to stay in good health in their 50s are much better off in their 70s and 80s. Not only will they need less money to take care of their health, but they will also feel better.
Save more. Some people think that it's too late to start when they are in their 50s. Naturally, starting younger is better, but you can make a big difference if you save another few years.
If you are a retiree already, consider unretiring. Go back to work, even part-time if you must.
You can also cut back on consumption. The first reaction is, "That is terrible." But it is a viable and sensible thing to think about. Recent surveys show that after retirement, consumption tends to fall by about 20%. You don't have to pay for parking. You don't have to pay for expensive work clothes and the long commute. You can spend more time cooking gourmet meals rather than going to restaurants.
Other options are also worth mentioning for those who are not intending to return to work. You can buy annuities to avoid the worry of outliving your money. You can buy long-term-care insurance if you are worried about being bankrupted by going into a nursing home. Inflation-linked investments are now available for the retiree concerned about inflation's drag on spending.
At the end of the day, though, you should think broadly about the resources you carry with you into retirement. Financial capital is only one part of the picture. There is also health capital, of course, and intellectual capital. And let's not forget social capital, by which I mean your relationships, your community ties, your networks, your hobbies. Retirement is not just about money.
Thank you, Professor Mitchell.
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