For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[ChloeTzang]

This news is just breaking... the Russians apparently had clobbered starokostyontyniv airbase.....
At least five (five) us supplied f 16's and an undisclosed number of British storm-shadow missiles were obliterated..also reported that a large number of NATO instructors, targeting personnel and service personnel were killed in a twin hypersonic Missile attack...this is being reported by/from the Ukrainians.......FAFO.......
More to come as information is released.....
Add to the mix us m1 Abrams tanks were spotted on rail cars heading to the ukie border...
Commentary..... with the gathering of the masses, the undescribable death toll of the Ukrainian army, the deployment of the 101st to the Ukrainian/polish border.... it's beginning to look as if the United States and (fucking) NATO are going to invade Ukraine..... (fuck me, just fuck me).....welp your fucking democrats wanted a world war my it be every thing your disgusting heart desires

See above post. See below post.

There is no indescribable death toll of the Ukrainian Army. M1 Abrams at this point are useful for fire support but really are not going to affect the way in any way, even tho they are not heading for Ukraine and are not part of any aid package, unless Zelensky has planted a chip in Trump's brain (let's not underestimate the HUR - they might be capable of this).

Ukraine doesn't need the 101st. They'd be a liability at this point. What they need is US intelliegence, weapons and ammo. All of which are now coming in NATO/EU-financed aid packages.

If you wantt more accurate updates, try following some of my sources and links. ALtho I must admit your posts are fun to read.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Staggering To Defeat: Endgame For Putin's Assault On Ukraine

The beginning of the end of the Ukraine War is finally in sight: Ukraine's military reboot, deep strike campaign, and battlefield networks are too efficient for Moscow's meat tactics to beat.

An end to the Ukraine War isn’t coming in a matter of weeks, but months - as few as ten to twelve, is very possible. The Muscovite economy is stuttering, and the fighting on the ground is still going quite poorly in most areas. No empire can sustain a war like this forever. Especially not when the target has no choice but to relentlessly innovate.

Over the past year, the Ukrainians have flipped the script on the orcs again, preserving their own people and combat power at almost any cost while relying on drones to do as much of the fighting as possible. Estimated fatality rates are now half of where they stood less than a year ago. No longer are media outlets in Ukraine and abroad publishing a steady stream of articles about exhausted Ukrainian soldiers unable to take leave. It’s marvelous when long-term plans start coming together. For two years now I’ve been insisting that Ukraine actually does have a strategy to win the war despite the 2023 counteroffensive not going as hoped. Ukrainian sources are now teasing that this may indeed be the case.

Ukraine’s last major counteroffensive campaign in the late summer of 2024 seized the strategic initiative from the orcs, forcing them to defend their home turf in Kursk instead of reinforcing the grind in Donbas. This bought precious time for Ukraine’s reformed forces to mature, now finally backed by the full spectrum of combined arms kit, from AWACS and multirole jets down to modern armor and artillery. Ukraine also slowly but surely forced the USA to reveal it’s true hand, prompting Europe to band together out of necessity. In truth, Ukraine has already won the war for its survival in most respects. If the war ended right now with Ukraine’s full integration into NATO and the EU, but the price was the permanent surrender of everything Putin has managed to steal since 2014, I would even call this a victory and expect most Ukrainians would too. This despite my intense suspicion of institutions that place too much faith in cheap promises and scraps of paper instead of automatic commitments to kinetic support.

Putin, however, will not acknowledge his defeat until his generals finally report that they can no longer send reinforcements out to the front because Ukrainian troops have restored the original international border in Donbas or secured a permanent foothold in Crimea. Only once trends clearly demonstrate that Putin is losing ground in Ukraine and can’t restore the front line will he be forced to retreat under an invented pretext, the way he did in Kherson in 2022. How this level of military triumph can be accomplished at the least cost in lives is the only question that truly remains. Rapidly increasing support for Ukraine from Europe as well as Ukraine’s own production are essential. However, one of the biggest unknowns remains how long Putin’s economy can cope with the strain it’s under. Pressures have been rising for some time, Moscow forcing companies to take on bad debts which will come due eventually, and being down a quarter of your fuel refining capacity with more going offline every few days and worse hits coming does not bode well.

Putin may not realize this yet, but ending the war now and proclaiming victory is probably the least risky option. The Ukrainians are actively burning the candle of his war effort at both ends. Taking out the cornerstone of the Muscovite economy is a hit to already badly out-of-balance budgets, and any further success on Ukraine’s part will slow down fuel shipments to the front, other supply shortages mounting in their wake. The Ukrainians carving up nearly every orc attack at the front with minimal losses requires Moscow’s economy to work that much harder to keep up with the burn rate. Something has got to give, and will sooner or later.

Welcome to the metabolic crisis, orcs! It’s not gonna end until you all go home for good. Everything can and will get so much worse - yet it will never be The End you all constantly threaten the world with. The nukes will never fly because Putin’s entourage fears apocalypse as much as Trump and Biden flacks.

Only two options remain for the Muscovite empire: enduring the pain of retreat now, or succumbing to even more down the line.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Corps Against Combined Arms Armies

Neither the Ukrainians nor the Russian enemy is fighting with the same army that existed in 2022. Putin's orcs have embraced their Soviet heritage, while the Ukrainians have taken a new path
Andrew Tanner
Sep 25

This post clays out how Ukraine’s new corps look to be tailor-made to chew up the fifteen or so Combined Arms Armies Moscow maintains in and around occupied Ukraine.
When strategic parameters are as fixed as they now are, effective operations powered by efficient logistics are what always make the critical difference. The Second World War was a story of the world being forcibly awakened to the aggressive posture of Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and Fascist Italy. The tell-tale signs that all three regimes were committed to aggression were present from the very beginning, perpetually fostered by wishful thinking that led to failed efforts to stop them without a fight to the death. But once the free world and the communist international were mobilized and allied, the totalitarian movement was doomed. Failure to beat Britain into submission in 1940 followed by the assault on the Soviet Union stalling out over the next two years left the most powerful member of the Axis fighting on two fronts against powers Nazi German was already unable to subdue separately.

Still, only by translating superiority in global resource access to actual kinetic operations were the Allies and Soviets able to finally turn the tide. The German military - less so the Japanese or Italian, both of which were ground down to nothing and unable to replace losses - actually completely rebuilt itself in 1943 and 1944. Had a few major operations gone a little better and a sane fortress strategy been adopted, the Nazis could have probably outlasted the enemy alliance and persisted for decades by looting occupied portions of France, Poland, and Czechoslovakia.

The Ukrainians have spent the past two years relentlessly adapting to the reality of a long - but not eternal - struggle by avoiding taking many big risks. But with the orc campaign stalling out hard despite an ongoing all-out effort that’s soaking up reserves the time has come to make some moves. As anticipated, Ukraine’s posture shifted late summer to something that already verges on a general counteroffensive, though it’s not there yet. However, the form it takes is unlikely to look like the prospective Volnovakha Campaign I outlined earlier this year. As has been the case several times already during the conflict, core battlefield standards and practices have visibly shifted in a matter of months. Ukraine’s counteroffensive is unlikely to involve a major concentration of combat power on a single front, because this style of attack is too easy to predict and counter.

A shift in the correct scale of action has occurred thanks to the flood of drones entering the battlefield. Strategy depends on striking the enemy’s potential to generate combat power, while operations must return to the old German concept of the battle of annihilation aimed at isolating and destroying enemy formations. Tactics are all about actually getting teams to the positions required to exert crushing dominance over battlefield logistics. The schwerpunkt of the whole Ukraine War is now the ability of the orcs to sustain combat power on the occupied territories, which demands that oil be available to move supplies from factory to front line. Logistics is always at the heart of all fighting, but Ukraine’s situation and the potential of technology have combined to make the entire war itself one gigantic operation with a single strategic purpose: destroy Putin’s ability to sustain an army of around seven hundred thousand orcs in Ukraine.

Until recently, one had to assume that major rail lines and highways must be brought into regular artillery range by the end of any major counteroffensive operation to call it a qualified success. Hence aiming at Volnovakha with a multi-corps push. But now, the Ukrainians are proving that they can cut off most orc access to Crimea and occupied Kherson using drones, no ground assault to get into artillery range required. This capability extends to major components of the Combined Arms Armies that the orcs field in occupied Ukraine. Isolating and destroying them is now the critical objective on the path to victory: if shattered and unable to properly organize, they won’t be able to hold out against determined Ukrainian assaults. The line will be prone to shifting rapidly once more, first on one front, then others. Goal: induce cascade collapse, uniting pressure at multiple points the same way an operation with a single overall axis of advance consists of multiple sequential tactical actions taken in parallel.

What successes the Russians have had these past two years generally stemmed from a direct and quite naive adoption of old-school Soviet doctrine. These can be effective in the right circumstances. Grouping the diverse array of brigades, regiments, and divisions in Moscow’s army into Combined Arms Armies corrected management issues which contributed to the first year of fighting being such a debacle. The CAAs are big and clumsy, but can relentlessly apply pressure on one or two areas. Eventually, brigades are overwhelmed and give ground.

Ukraine’s countervailing move was to set up eighteen or so corps, smaller and more uniformly organized to enable more effective coordination on the battlefield. They’ve been at work for several months, and the improvements in Ukrainian performance are clear, even when filtered down to updates on open source maps.

Moscow’s shift to Soviet-style CAAs stemmed mostly from the inability of the brigade-based system to sustain the high casualty rates that prevail in Ukraine. The idea of having a single self-contained brigade fielding several coherent sub-units had and still has merit - the Russians did it wrong. To save on costs, only a portion of each brigade was ever fully staffed with professionals. Mobilization was necessary to field the number of battalion tactical groups required to sustain a regular rotation on the front. Moscow’s brigades in 2022 were, in effect, reinforced battalions with no backup. Once chewed up, the only way to make good on personnel losses was to pull people from their usual duties and make them infantry. That only worked for a few weeks before whole brigades were combat ineffective. By September of 2022, they had all been so badly depleted that the right amount of pressure made them give way, despite Ukrainian forces also being low on most everything at that point. Putin saved his war by belatedly authorizing mobilization, but this brought a new problem: most of the people with the skills to organize and train the mobilized were sunflower fertilizer. Without extensive training around a common doctrine, keeping military formations organized in the face of Ukrainian pressure was almost impossible.

Instead of pausing the war then attacking again when Ukraine’s allies had declared victory and promptly stopped paying attention, Putin never gave his forces a chance to properly regenerate. Even as they’ve become larger, they’ve gotten less efficient -save where experienced and competent staffs still exist to manage the horde. As much as orc officers have a justified reputation for disregarding casualties, they aren’t entirely inhuman. The machine they’re part of mandates the irrelevance of casualties, because acknowledging these begs the question of what they were all for, and Putin’s gains are hardly a glory for the ages or a triumph over the combined forces of NATO. As people, if most orc officers could achieve their objectives without sending so many to die, they almost certainly would. CAAs allow for a crude level of command and control that has in a few areas been able to repeatedly exploit Ukrainian challenges with managing their own much-expanded forces. Muscovite officers - much like many of their NATO counterparts, I’m afraid - have a dangerous attraction to legacy organization from the days of their grandfathers: top-down, rigid, orders based. Soldiers go where they’re told and die as they must. The internal logic that holds it together is the common understanding that this arrangement still beats being a pure mob for all but the people on the bottom end of the hierarchy who get fed into assault teams.

NATO officers like to think that they truly practice decentralization of authority as the highly effective German Aufstragtaktik concept they wisely adopted demands. In practice, the bureaucratic nature of a peacetime military establishment leads to higher-level leaders seeing autonomy in their subordinates as a career risk. Mistakes stemming from causes other than negligence are punished, preventing learning, which creates vulnerabilities.

The Ukrainians have also run into major challenges using separated brigades, but the reasons are different. The varying quality of each brigade command team and the fact that Ukraine fields more than a hundred means that the enemy can, statistically speaking, eventually find a troubled one then direct waves of attacks at it. Because a leader in a neighboring brigade can’t unilaterally take over the assets required to cope when their partner fails to respond, the whole line crumbles. Here the natural challenge Ukraine has to cope with is ambiguous areas of responsibility. These usually exist at any boundary between units, which is why that’s traditionally a highly desirable spot for recon assets to locate ahead of a planned offensive. An enemy force moving along the seam might appear to risk being hit from both sides, but often the other side’s leaders can’t decide who is supposed to handle it, with the result that nobody does quickly enough.

To be continued

 

[ChloeTzang]

Enter the Ukrainian Corps....

Enter the corps: an engine built to eliminate this problem while simplifying operations in general. The idea isn’t new, even in Ukraine, but establishing the corps system wasn’t a priority when Ukrainian brigades were facing down and tearing up poorly-coordinated battalion tactical groups.

Once the orcs adapted to overpower entire brigades, the Ukrainians had to work out a way to coordinate on a larger scale. A lot of adaption comes down to a simple scalar shift. If I can’t win with a single all-out attack, I revert to a balance of offense and defense to wear the opponent down. If that isn’t working, then it’s time for death by a thousand cuts. If the enemy adapts too strongly to cope with that, they should become vulnerable to a barrage of fewer, but heavier, strikes. To oversimplify what has happened: Moscow adapted its ground forces to use brute force to cull weaker brigades from the flock, forcing the rest to give ground during the reset that follows. Ukraine has counter-adapted by pulling brigades into defined teams where the corps command acts as a steering influence and hedge against brigade-level mistakes. These corps are built to destroy CAAs in the way CAAs were empowered to defeat brigades.

The Muscovite CAAs are all hodgepodges of attached units of various size, with no apparent standard organizing template. Military District commands allocate forces to CAAs from a reserve pool, the grouping large enough to sustain its own reserve and regular unit-level rotations as casualties are taken. Each CAA can maintain a single axis of advance, possibly two, as well as defend in depth, operating from a reserve area at least 100km from the front to avoid getting HIMARSed.

These are, in short, heavy but blunt instruments. CAAs require a constant flow of reinforcements and supplies to sustain their wasteful use of resources in constant assaults. They also have to keep their headquarters staffs well protected, because without explicit instruction, advance teams generally go to ground. That makes CAAs vulnerable to being broken apart and defeated piece by piece faster than reinforcements can be rushed in - especially if the CAA is short on fuel.

Ukraine’s corps, though there are a few exceptions and not all are fully formed, appear to follow a rough template. They cover anywhere from twenty to a hundred kilometers of frontage, and house:

• Five line brigades
  At least one is a veteran outfit, sometimes two, while another one or two are newer. Seems like a good balance. Most line brigades field a full six battalions, half equipped with armored vehicles, the other half with MRAP-type armored trucks. Each brigade has at least a battalion’s worth of various organic support elements, like fire support, drones, and so on to remain fairly independent in their assigned sector, with four of six battalions spread across five to twenty kilometers, giving each plenty of depth.
• Bonus line brigade
  Many corps appear to have a brigade from the Marine or Air Assault communities attached, though whether this is permanent or not is unclear. Could be that 8th Air Assault Corps, like 30th Marine Corps, covers an area where a major orc operation is possible but unlikely, such as the Dnipro river or border with Belarus, with Territorial or Coastal Brigades. The main fighting brigades - up to ten Air Assault and four Marine, plus maybe a particularly effective Territorial or National Guard brigade - are attached to a corps to bolster their capabilities. 7th Rapid Response Corps, though officially managing half of the Air Assault brigades, may actually function in the field like any other corps, commanding a standard mix.
• Heavy brigade
  Each has at least one tank battalion plus three to four of infantry serves as a ready reserve, able to plug gaps that may emerge between brigades or reinforce one under heavy fire. Housing the corps’ allotment of tanks means that it will also detach companies to support assault operations. Each should have at least a company of modern tanks - a dozen or so Challenger 2s, Leopard 2s, or Abrams - plus another of Leopard 1s - or an upgraded Soviet style tank like the Polish PT-91 or Croatian M-84. Those two companies can form one battalion, joined by another of equal or slightly larger size handling the venerable Ukrainian T-64, which works well as a short-range artillery piece or assault gun with its big shells.
• Assault regiment or brigade
  Fielding a total of two to four assault battalions that tend to (or at least should) get the best vehicles and youngest volunteers, tasked with spearheading attacks on enemy positions. A recent NV Ukraine interview with chief of the Assault Troops revealed that these usually operate in company-level or smaller teams, allowing a single regiment to support multiple brigade efforts. Several well-supported assault companies running parallel attacks can break open a chunk of the front several kilometers wide and as many deep, allowing a battalion from a line brigade to move in and consolidate.
• Drone regiment or brigade
  Providing comprehensive surveillance and fire support, increasingly logistics. These may soon become full drone brigades, with a common administrative element handling back end logistics for role-specific battalions: tactical strike, operational strike, interceptor, recon, and ground. Ground drones may be easier to integrate directly into existing line units given the lighter learning curve associate with remotely piloting ground vehicles as opposed to aerial platforms. A fiber-optic spool also takes up much less of a ground drone’s payload capacity, rendering it immune to jamming.
• Artillery brigade
  Equipped with NATO-standard 155mm howitzers of both the towed and self-propelled variety, as well as rocket systems - definitely those of the classic Katyusha style, hopefully also a couple HIMARS or M270s. Previously these were assigned to rocket brigades, but dispersal is probably best to ensure some level of coverage everywhere. The Ukrainians are also now producing about two brigade’s worth of Bohdana systems every month, and the Czech international initiative plus European supplies guarantee several thousand rounds a day, so if drones don’t kill a target coming at the line, artillery is available to assist.

To be continued

 

[ChloeTzang]

A complete corps also fields the equivalent of one or two additional brigades in the form of up to a dozen attached battalions. These tend to house essential corps-level services that all brigades need some of the time, but few can constantly maintain. A partial list, as these will vary from corps to corps, includes:

• Reconnaissance Strike - long-range recon types who freely infiltrate the front to spot high-value targets. They get specialized surveillance drones and license to call down HIMARS and even air strikes. Teams from this community are ideally on the ground before even assault teams make their move.
• Engineering - always in too-short of supply, otherwise a candidate for expansion into a full brigade in every corps, the engineers prepare fighting positions and clear obstacles, like minefields. A few will tend to go in with the assault troops to help speed their advance. In a world where survival time is a function of distance from cover, engineers are essential. They’re also going to make full use of drones and robotics as quickly as the scout and artillery communities.
• Medical - people are always going to get hurt, and the sooner they can be evacuated to a facility with the full range of care, the better their odds of coming through alive. Nowadays, getting casualties off the front line is an operation unto itself, one ground drones are hopefully starting to revolutionize. But casualties still have to be collected and met by a proper medic once pulled from the field then kept stable during the drive to a field hospital, which isn’t a cakewalk itself any more.
• Anti-tank - the Ukrainians look to have concentrated the personnel trained to use anti-tank missile systems in separate battalions. When there’s evidence of orc armor inbound, they can deploy to set up an ambush and hunt down anything that gets past the drones. Just because there are fewer public videos released of missile hits these days doesn’t mean they’ve lost their importance.
• Air Defense - rather, low-altitude air defense, as much against drones as helicopters and ground attack aircraft. Though the occasional Su-25 rocket raid still happens, these have mostly suppression value anyway. At the corps level, air defenses mostly consist of shoulder-fired SAM teams, radar-assisted machine guns, and FrankenSAM hybrids using small heat-seeking air-to-air missiles fired from ground launchers. They work well enough for this layer of air defense, though a fully integrated system with long, medium, and short range components is always ideal.
• Signals - though not always called this, most corps will likely have a battalion to handle communications. This is also one possible place to house broad-scale electromagnetic warfare functions, which tend to have to take into account other forms of signals exchange. The intelligence shop that every field unit will lean on to help forecast what the force will be expected to do next (where I should probably work) can often be housed here.
• Security - combination of military police and counter-infiltration duties. Hunting saboteurs, catching the spies who try to infiltrate the ranks, that sort of stuff. Highly useful when the enemy likes to sneak soldiers into an area in ones or twos wearing civilian clothing.
• Supply - the people who actually keep all of the above going. Beans, bullets, and gas, as the old adage goes. They get the shortest description because they’re so darned fundamental.
• Repair - the people who keep the gear needed to keep everything above up and running up and running. Supply has to get from point A to point B. Just as fundamental as supply.
• Admin - HQ and paperwork. Intel may go here instead of the Signals group, because commanding officers tend to like their planning staff close even when most of their day is spent signing pieces of paper or reviewing reports. A few months of working in a battalion-level HQ probably influences my desire to move this function somewhere else.

That’s a lot of moving pieces to keep track of, but no longer does each individual brigade have to manage all of these functions. The clear intention is to give the five line brigades the ability to hold their assigned sectors without permanently ceding ground, reserves always available to punch back to restore a desired front.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Wrap

The similarity of each corps’ structure makes it a lot easier for everyone in one to understand their role. Predicting what whoever depends on you will need next is essential to good service in any context. Even without a textbook doctrine that all personnel are drilled to adhere to prior to entering combat, similarities in organizational structure will stimulate certain natural behavioral tendencies. Officers and enlisted alike benefit from knowing roughly what assets partners are working with and how they’re expected to work. Substantial diversity between subordinate corps units can be tolerated and is often ideal when there’s still a common framework like this to fall back on.

If my take on Network Age trends is at all correct, operations are more important than ever but must be carefully timed to moments where the risk to moving personnel goes as close to zero as possible. They have to also be highly opportunistic, brigades ready to rapidly alter their posture if a breach is made in the enemy front. Working in conjunction with the weather will be ideal, as it strongly impacts drones, which do more to impede movement than mud nowadays. The pattern I would expect to see of Ukraine’s corps over the next three months is one of relentless but unpredictable escalations of pressure involving corps acting alone or a small number in conjunction. Throwing the orcs back from their primary objectives - Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, *****, and Kostyantynivka - to give Ukrainian logistics some breathing room is the most sensible course of action.

The Muscovites are banking on being able to attrite Ukrainian forces proportionally to Muscovite combat power lost over the next few months, gaining small amounts of ground while blocking Ukrainian counterattacks. Both sides are making the same bet: that they hold a tactical edge. The autumn will be a race to see who is right - and who can disrupt the other side’s attempts to supply the front.

As the Combined Arms Army was designed to apply mass to a narrow front, particularly weaker brigades, chewing them up in a relentless grind, so is the corps set up to turn every effort by a CAA to come to grips with its target a futile waste of energy. If a brigade is targeted, it can simply be pulled out of the way of the main blow while adjacent brigades unleash counterattacks on the enemy that charges into the trap. Predictions of the death of maneuver warfare are incorrect. It’s all about the right scale of action.

Ukraine’s corp reform seems to have struck an optimal balance between a total top-to-bottom remaking of the entire Ukrainian ground forces and the proven ability of about twenty percent of Ukraine’s brigade leadership to excel in combat management. If another sixty percent can competently hold their assigned sector, corps level assets can manage any brigade level failures or take the initiative using the equivalent of a reinforced brigade backed by most corps support assets. Broadly speaking, a Ukrainian corps ought to be able to handle a single or even dual penetration of the enemy’s front, surrounding enemies in the target area. Given how CAAs concentrate so much of their effort on a single distinct and narrow axis of advance, Ukrainian forces should have good odds of annihilating their vanguard then advancing before the CAA can rotate in a fresh brigade. When it does, the process repeats.

The counteroffensive campaign that stems from this will look more like Kherson in 2022 than Kharkiv, but the potential for something spectacular will rise with every day the orcs suffer lopsided losses. Kherson and Kharkiv were linked together, part of the same system of strategy, just as Kursk and the fight in Donbas were always intimately connected. Essential to Ukraine’s strategy for this fall and winter is placing a stranglehold on battlefield logistics by making gasoline harder and harder to come by. Combine ongoing tactical losses that threaten to grow into large-scale operational reversals with a diminished ability to move combat power where it’s needed to forestall a Ukrainian counterattack, and catastrophe beckons for Putin’s orcs.

Gas queues across the empire are the first sign of Moscow having to choose between sending energy to the home front or occupied Ukraine. This is a very bad choice to have to make. Crimea is reportedly totally out of gasoline. If that condition persists for too long, a Ukrainian landing is suddenly in the realm of reality. Operations depend on good strategy as well as tactical competence. They form a system, and when one parameter shifts, feedback effects are inevitable. Now, not all is well on every front, and Moscow’s tactical inferiority can definitely be offset by sheer numbers. Moscow is finally focusing most efforts on a single front, with two secondary but still major supporting actions. Ukrainian forces are still having to give ground in places.

This is why reducing the flow of everything to frontline positions is key. Most operations are in some way designed to accomplish exactly this. If a team in good cover has ammunition and supplies, they can fight for a long, long time. Lacking either, and it’s a different story. This holds true at every level of the fight.

Turning to the fronts, though, it’s clear that Ukraine’s 2025 counteroffensive has begun. The results are difficult to see right now because territory isn’t permanently changing hands, and Moscow is doing all it can to forestall what’s coming by punching first.

But the Ukrainians have switched from active defense to a posture of parity. That is, they’re meeting the enemy head on with the intention of inflicting a severe defeat. And as the orcs focus on Pokrovsk, vulnerabilities elsewhere are bound to appear.

 

[Buffalogurl]

See above post. See below post.

There is no indescribable death toll of the Ukrainian Army. M1 Abrams at this point are useful for fire support but really are not going to affect the way in any way, even tho they are not heading for Ukraine and are not part of any aid package, unless Zelensky has planted a chip in Trump's brain (let's not underestimate the HUR - they might be capable of this).

Ukraine doesn't need the 101st. They'd be a liability at this point. What they need is US intelliegence, weapons and ammo. All of which are now coming in NATO/EU-financed aid packages.

If you wantt more accurate updates, try following some of my sources and links. ALtho I must admit your posts are fun to read.

With all due respect, the ukies have a 1.7-1.9 million casualties of the Ukrainian military....real numbers...the ukies have buried so many people the body fluids are contaminating the ground water..nearly all ukies are boiling their drinking water at the present....
Also..... as for 101st Airborne being a liability? Seriously ChloeTzang, the 101st Airborne? As for m1 Abrams?... being a hindrance??..... OK fuck it.... the Ukrainians aren't shit without outside help as you stated in your response, at the present the west IS at war with Russia, a world war I gotta ask how do you feel about your countrymen and your kind being sacrificed to "soften up" the Russians ??..... if you had the intestinal fortitude to look back at history you'll discover this war was started during the Clinton reign of terror,.... this disaster is a product of the former democrat leadership and the filthy European union....
So, I gotta ask.... say the ukies push president Putin into a corner and he nukes several major cities in Ukraine.... do you believe the west will do anything but squal and whine?....will they risk a global nuclear exchange because of Ukraine?
One last issue..... you keep "down playing" some of the major strategic events that the Russians have accomplished as and I quote "you need to get better information" welp girl my information is as good or better and more accurate than nearly all......if I had only your information it would have lead us all to believe that Ukraine had won the war two years ago.... do yourself a favor stop believing the bullshit of the propagandists...... because I don't believe the bullshit from either side...fucking lie'rs the lot of them all... and now my people are gonna die for these filthy sons of bitches ....

 

[DraggonStone]

Epstein

 

[Lazaran]

With all due respect, the ukies have a 1.7-1.9 million casualties of the Ukrainian military....real numbers...the ukies have buried so many people the body fluids are contaminating the ground water..nearly all ukies are boiling their drinking water at the present....
Also..... as for 101st Airborne being a liability? Seriously ChloeTzang, the 101st Airborne? As for m1 Abrams?... being a hindrance??..... OK fuck it.... the Ukrainians aren't shit without outside help as you stated in your response, at the present the west IS at war with Russia, a world war I gotta ask how do you feel about your countrymen and your kind being sacrificed to "soften up" the Russians ??..... if you had the intestinal fortitude to look back at history you'll discover this war was started during the Clinton reign of terror,.... this disaster is a product of the former democrat leadership and the filthy European union....
So, I gotta ask.... say the ukies push president Putin into a corner and he nukes several major cities in Ukraine.... do you believe the west will do anything but squal and whine?....will they risk a global nuclear exchange because of Ukraine?
One last issue..... you keep "down playing" some of the major strategic events that the Russians have accomplished as and I quote "you need to get better information" welp girl my information is as good or better and more accurate than nearly all......if I had only your information it would have lead us all to believe that Ukraine had won the war two years ago.... do yourself a favor stop believing the bullshit of the propagandists...... because I don't believe the bullshit from either side...fucking lie'rs the lot of them all... and now my people are gonna die for these filthy sons of bitches ....

Buffy, you ignorant slut.



STFU

Even DonOld the traitor Trump KNOWS Russia is fucked (even with all the help DonOld the traitor gave Putin / Russia).

And China, etc, also backed a loser (Putin/ Russia).

Hell, if Kamala Harris had been President for the past eight months, and the Democrats had been in control of congress, Russia would have already withdrawn from Ukraine, and Putin (or some scapegoat / scapegoats) would have fallen out of a window by now.

Deal. With. It.



Slava Ukraini!!!





We. Told. Them. So.

 

[ChloeTzang]

With all due respect, the ukies have a 1.7-1.9 million casualties of the Ukrainian military....real numbers...the ukies have buried so many people the body fluids are contaminating the ground water..nearly all ukies are boiling their drinking water at the present....
Also..... as for 101st Airborne being a liability? Seriously ChloeTzang, the 101st Airborne? As for m1 Abrams?... being a hindrance??..... OK fuck it.... the Ukrainians aren't shit without outside help as you stated in your response, at the present the west IS at war with Russia, a world war I gotta ask how do you feel about your countrymen and your kind being sacrificed to "soften up" the Russians ??..... if you had the intestinal fortitude to look back at history you'll discover this war was started during the Clinton reign of terror,.... this disaster is a product of the former democrat leadership and the filthy European union....
So, I gotta ask.... say the ukies push president Putin into a corner and he nukes several major cities in Ukraine.... do you believe the west will do anything but squal and whine?....will they risk a global nuclear exchange because of Ukraine?
One last issue..... you keep "down playing" some of the major strategic events that the Russians have accomplished as and I quote "you need to get better information" welp girl my information is as good or better and more accurate than nearly all......if I had only your information it would have lead us all to believe that Ukraine had won the war two years ago.... do yourself a favor stop believing the bullshit of the propagandists...... because I don't believe the bullshit from either side...fucking lie'rs the lot of them all... and now my people are gonna die for these filthy sons of bitches ....

Even Russian drones can take out M1's failry quickly in the open. The 101's wide open to drobne attacks. The US military is completely unprepared fpr drone warfare on the scale that its being fought at in Ukraine.

As for Putin and nukes, the minute he uses one on Ukraine, Ukraine will dirty bomb Russian target(s). In the end, it's Russians who will take Putin out.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Electricity infrastructure in Russia’s Belgorod is under heavy attack now, the city is partially blacked out.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1972339435514818748

 

[ChloeTzang]

Oh dear, never mind.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1972526272116031737

 

[ChloeTzang]

According to the monitoring channel Crimean Wind, alarm sirens were heard near military facilities in Sevastopol around 12:00 today. A Russian warship is reportedly on fire in the Southern Bay. The warship that is allegedly on fire in Crimea, is reported to be moored in Yuzhnaya Bay, in the south of the Sevastopol port. The vessel targeted may be the Kommuna, a 109-year-old salvage ship-the world’s oldest active warship

Russian officials claimed the fire was caused by “falling fragments” from an intercepted missile, but Ukrainian sources suggest a direct hit

 

[Celand]

It is obvious

 

[Buffalogurl]

Even Russian drones can take out M1's failry quickly in the open. The 101's wide open to drobne attacks. The US military is completely unprepared fpr drone warfare on the scale that its being fought at in Ukraine.

As for Putin and nukes, the minute he uses one on Ukraine, Ukraine will dirty bomb Russian target(s). In the end, it's Russians who will take Putin out.

No, all armor is subject to the drone warfare and as far as 101st, over the previous few years the new face of warfare is being studied and soldiers are being trained with that threat in mind, however that being said actual field experience is the best or worst however which way you view it
The "possibility" of Zelensky using a dirty bomb? Then what? The retaliation would be decisively ruinous for the ukies Russia possess the largest, fastest and the most nuclear weapons arsenal.....

So, here's a scenario for you......and some facts, all in all China will stand with Russia. They need Russia for oil and Iran for yellow cake....the only way the ukies can fight is because of the United States it's Zelensky's only hope... the EU is helpless, take a hard look at Europe they have bought into their own delusion......they have no military industry to speak of. I could go on but you get the idea.....
Now for the scenario.... Russia is on the ropes, the Chinese know this, a single simple phone call goes out to that fat fuck in North Korea (China's house slave) a single 22 wheeled missile launcher rolls out into firing position and launches an icbm carrying a mrved war head targeting Washington dc...the gears of war spin up to counter the attack. Currently we have just 44 intercept missiles capable of stopping an icbm.....they fail..... 14 minutes later a North Korean submarine launches another icbm 100 miles off the coast of California targeting Diablo nuclear power plant....4 minute flight time...and so it begins..... in 72 minutes the west is plunged into an unrecoverable nightmare...... there's more, but you have the overall view..... oh and the nuke that strikes Diablo poisons the west coast all the way to Colorado for 10 thousand years...... think about this a while.....there more, much more.....

 

[ChloeTzang]

Another 1000 Russians converted to good Russians

 

[ChloeTzang]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1972232568704831643

 

[ChloeTzang]

Russian state media says these are Russian assault troops about to attack ukr trenches. 2 mags. 60 bullets. Do you know how fast you can use up 2 mags. The intention here is that as they die, the survivors take the remaining mags and rounds from the dead. 80% of these guys will die as they move up thru the gray zone before they each the contact line. 90% of them will be dead within hours of coming into contact with the ZSU. Sayonara, meat. Also, the "plate" in their plate carriers is as often as not fake armor from cntractors skimming the money, and the helmets are ....not much use.

As a general rule, the Russian officers don't trust their own soldiers. They hand out weapons shortly before a mission and issue them only 2 magazines because 90% of them are expected to die almost immediately.



As a general rule.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Winter is arriving in Russia and gasoline for cars is now being rationed. MIles lomnhg queues at some gas stations. There are now reports of people in russia freezing to death in parked cars while waiting for gas that is not coming... how tragic. In the region of Khabarovsk Krai, lines are now a day long at the few stations that still have supply.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1972242831575060487

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

More examples of the ongoing ZSU reorganization into a more effective combat and command structure

The 12th Tank Battalion is the foundation for the new 12th Heavy Mechanized Brigade. The 29th Tank Battalion is the foundation for the new 29th Heavy Mechanized Brigade. There will be a heavy mechanized brigade in each corps but it wasn’t reported where the 12th and 29th brigades will be assigned. All tank units are now assigned to a regiment or brigade with the exception of the 300th Training Tank Regiment, so there are now no more independent combat tank units.

Territorial Defense Forces were regional reserve forces that operated as separate battalions.
- There are currently 51 separate TD battalions and they will all be assigned to a TD brigade. T
- This will simplify the command structure and is very much in line with the spirit of the Corps-Brigade reorganization.

 

[ChloeTzang]

A beautiful sight of a falling Russian Mi-8, shot down today by FPV drone. Unfortunately the crew survived

 

[ShandyLeer]

This news is just breaking... the Russians apparently had clobbered starokostyontyniv airbase.....
At least five (five) us supplied f 16's and an undisclosed number of British storm-shadow missiles were obliterated..also reported that a large number of NATO instructors, targeting personnel and service personnel were killed in a twin hypersonic Missile attack...this is being reported by/from the Ukrainians.......FAFO.......
More to come as information is released.....
Add to the mix us m1 Abrams tanks were spotted on rail cars heading to the ukie border...
Commentary..... with the gathering of the masses, the undescribable death toll of the Ukrainian army, the deployment of the 101st to the Ukrainian/polish border.... it's beginning to look as if the United States and (fucking) NATO are going to invade Ukraine..... (fuck me, just fuck me).....welp your fucking democrats wanted a world war my it be every thing your disgusting heart desires

if this is the news that’s ‘just breaking’ why hasn’t it broken?

If you’re not on Pravda’s payroll you should be.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Shades of things to come

Ukraine's Neptune Strike on the Elektrodetal Plant​

On September 29, Ukraine struck the Elektrodetal plant in Karachev, Bryansk region, with Neptune cruise missiles. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the use of four missiles, with the Ukrainian Navy later confirming their type. According to the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Elektrodetal plant is a key supplier of connectors used widely across russian industry, including the aerospace sector. Components from this plant have been identified in russian weapons systems, notably the Khimera FPV drone. This is the sort of strategic hit that creates major bottlenecks in Russia's supply chain. This is a really specialist factory that supplies components to 1500 other factories and produces ariod 25,000 diffweent compoenents.

Quite an important plant producing electrical connectors that are used throughout Russian industry and military-industrial products​

Two things to note here:
(1) this plant was hit by FOUR Neptune cruise missiles. A far as I know, this is the first use of that many cruise missiles to hit a single target by Ukraine so far in the war. They've used ones and twos, but I haven't come across four used for a single strike. This would seem to indicate that Ukrainian cruise missile production is picking up and they now have sufficient missiles stockpiled to be able to use miltiple cruise missiles (with larger warheads) on a single target. We can probably expect more of these on an ongoing basis.

(2) Russian air defence has collapsed. This is a really strategic target. It was hit by FOUR cruise missiles. Ergo, Russian air defence here was either useless or non-existent. The extrapolation from this is that Ukraine is free t pretrty much target and hot whatever it chooses - active Russian air defense is collapsing, Ukraine has opened up lanes through, and Russia can expect more and mpre hits like this pretty much at Ukraine's whim. On top of this was a recent report that there is such a lack of air defence missiles that Russia is drafting their (trained specialist) SAM crews into the infantry for use in the meatgrinder. THAT indicates their air defense is kaput.

Not a good time to be a Russian air defence general

 

[ChloeTzang]

The TRUTH of Russia’s War When the Cameras Are Off​

Russian propaganda paints triumphant soldiers returning as heroes, but the reality tells a darker story. Behind the staged celebrations lie rising crime, untreated trauma, and a war economy consuming Russia’s future. Veterans return with violence, addiction, and despair, while ordinary citizens see social services collapse. What's going on in Russia now is far worse than the return of the Afghan veterans....a social disaster in the making.

This one's well worth a watch - Russia has sown the seeds for it's internal collapse into chaos already