India-Pakistan War About to Kickoff

[ChloeTzang]

It might be worthwhile to remind ourselves that the twit ultimately responsible for the Kashmir stuff up is British Lord Louis Mounbatten (formerly von Battenberg) the last Viceroy of India. He was in a rush to get India's independence ASAP so he could either have a plebiscite and ask people of Kashmir (90% Moslem) or he could ask the ruler of Kashmir, a Hindu, Rajah, Nizam, or something like that. Unsurprisingly he chose the latter method and the ruler chose India promoting an immediate civil war.

But it was a quick result and enabled Mountbatten to concentrate on a much more important event, the marriage of his only slightly less right wing nephew, Philip Mountbatten, to Princess Elizabeth (later Queen Elizabth)

Mountbatten's wife, Edwina, was a much more interesting person. During her husband's vice Royalty she cuckolded him by becoming the lover of Nehru the first Prime Minister of India.

Mountbatten was murdered by the IRA in 1979, an event much regretted by his relatives, less so by many others who complained that the IRA was 40 years too late

Yep, if the plebiscite had been held Kashmir would have gone to Pakistan and Jammu to India. The whole partition thing was a disaster - a united India really would have been a superpower.

As for Mountbatten, he was military to the core. He was an easy target for the IRA - an old man, long retired, who had never had anything to do with Ireland. It was a particularly disgusting terrorist attack on civilians, including his daughter and grandchildren. In India, a week of national mourning was declared over Mountbatten's death. The Indians certainly liked him, as did most people who had anything to do with him.

And as for him and Edwina - Mountbatten admitted: "Edwina and I spent all our married lives getting into other people's beds." The FBI file on Mountbatten, begun after he took on the role of Supreme Allied Commander in Southeast Asia in 1944, describes Mountbatten and his wife Edwina as "persons of extremely low morals", LOL. So very British. LOL

 

[ChloeTzang]

Um, Pakistan was playing defense, no???

And India was striking target on the ground while simultaneously dealing with threats from air to air and ground based missiles, while Pakistan was solely focused on India’s fighter jets, no???

See also; Ukraine junking a fuckton MOAR of Russia’s toys than Ukraine is losing.

I wouldn’t read too much into the Pakistani "victory" (and the details of that "victory" are still pretty sketchy).

Yes - and pretty much everything I posted was I think from Pakistani sources so take that with a grain of salt. What it boils down to is there were a lot of aircraft involved on both sides, the IAF seem to have hit their targets but the Pakis put up a good fight and look like they took out at least a couple of IAF aircraft. Seems the IAF may have hit a number of Paki air force bases

Best guess seems to be IAF lost three aircraft.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Ah ha. ANd here is why the USA got involved in mediation.....

India bombing the shit out of Pakistand's Rawalpindi Noor Khan base WAS the “Oh fuck ” moment for the US Admin. Neither the USA or PAKISTAN thought in their wildest dreams that the Indian Air Force could penetrate Noor khan base defences & destroy it without lubrication

Modi called Pakistan's Nuclear bluff tactfully. Pakistan's big fear is that their nuclear command could be decapitated.

India’s strikes on Pakistani airbases caused significant damage, with Chinese-supplied air defense systems failing to intercept the attacks. That’s likely why Chinese media is now emphasizing the “professionalism” of Pakistan’s air force—a narrative shift to deflect from system failures.

 

[ChloeTzang]

The Real Reason India’s Dassault Rafale Jets Lost to Pakistan’s Air Force​

Key Points – On May 7, India’s air force launched Operation Sindoor, targeting militant-linked sites in Pakistan. Despite employing cutting-edge Dassault Rafale fighters and advanced missiles, photographic evidence indicates Pakistan’s Air Force downed multiple Indian jets—including at least one Rafale—without confirmed losses.

-Key to Pakistan’s success were Chinese-supplied J-10CE and JF-17 jets, powerful PL-15 missiles, and Swedish-made Erieye AWACS aircraft. Unlike past simulations like Cope India, this battle showcased real-world networked warfare, emphasizing beyond-visual-range missile effectiveness and AWACS coordination.
-The clash underscores the importance of electronic warfare, intelligence, and long-range missile capabilities, prompting reconsideration of India’s air combat preparedness against an increasingly sophisticated adversary.

Pakistan’s J-10 Fighter vs. India’s Dassault Rafale

On May 7, dozens of Indian Air Force (IAF) warplanes carried out strikes on militant-affiliated targets in Pakistan in retaliation for a murderous terror attack in April that killed 26 tourists in Kashmir. The raid triggered a battle with the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) that according to some reports involved 125 aircraft. A few days later, photographic evidence increasingly suggests the PAF managed to shoot down a few Indian jets over Indian soil, without having suffered any confirmed losses of its own. (Indian press reports the downing of an F-16 and JF-17s, but photographic evidence is lacking for now.) This outcome may seem curious, given the IAF’s past successes during air-to-air exercises with the U.S. Air Force in Cope India. To understand why the PAF may have performed relatively well, it is necessary to consider capabilities those exercises didn’t simulate, as well as the IAF’s approach to the raid itself, codenamed Operation Sindoor.

Operation Sindoor

The IAF was undoubtedly ready to revisit the field after tit-for-tat cross-border air raids in 2019 culminated in the downing of a dated Indian MiG-21 fighter by a Pakistani F-16, the capture of its pilot, and the accidental friendly-fire downing of an Indian helicopter. This time, India’s air force seemingly ensured its most advanced combat aircraft were leading the way, including French-built Rafale jets carrying SCALP-EG subsonic cruise missiles and HAMMER-250 guided glide bombs, and powerful Russian-designed Su-30MKI ‘Flankers’ lugging supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles. These weapons were launched while still over Indian airspace, and they successfully struck ground targets in Pakistan (with a notable exception detailed below). But in the ensuing air battle, Pakistan’s defenses proved better prepared and better armed.

Discerning real on-the-ground imagery amid a torrent of propaganda, which included intentional disinformation presenting photos of past crashes as current events, proved remarkably difficult. But eventually, wreckage near Bathinda revealed the IAF had lost a Rafale BS-001—the first model of Rafale delivered to India, and the first ever lost in combat. (Both U.S. and French sources reported this loss to media and assert it was dealt by a PAF J-10 jet.) Sadly, the Rafale crash killed one civilian and injured nine more.

Further, apparent photos of a Russian-origin K-36DM ejection seat and a shattered French missile pylon recovered at other locations suggest possible loss of one or two more Indian fighters: most likely a two-seat Su-30MKI jet or a MiG-29, and perhaps (though with less confidence) another Rafale or a Mirage 2000H.

Why Cope India wasn’t a great test of beyond-visual-range air combat

In the 2000s, historically chilly relations between New Delhi and Washington turned decisively for the better, giving way to increased military cooperation. That included the Cope India series of exercises, which, starting in their 2004 iteration, gave American F-15 pilots a chance to test their tactics and technology against Indian counterparts flying a diverse stable of Soviet/Russian and French jets. The reports that emerged from Cope India proved surprisingly unflattering to the world’s most powerful air force—U.S. pilots lost 90 percent of the engagements in 2004. The following year, F-16s also underwhelmed. American accounts state the Indians displayed creative tactics and a high degree of coordination, emphasizing that IAF pilots found ways to get their antiquated (but upgraded) MiG-21 jets into knife-fighting range, where their short-range R-73 missiles put them on more even terms with the more modern American fighters.

There’s no doubt U.S. pilots were unprepared for the prowess and creativity of their Indian opponents, and the Air Force used these outcomes to argue it was dangerous to grow complacent about its air warfare dominance. But certain conditions of the Cope Indias limited realism—namely, the U.S. jets were typically outnumbered 3:1, they were unsupported by AWACS early-warning planes, and they could not use their long-range missiles at ranges exceeding 21-25 miles. The latter two conditions were imposed because neither side wanted to expose the full capabilities of their radars and missiles to the others’ sensors. But it means the exercises didn’t simulate how air forces armed with long-range missiles and AWACS aircraft would really fight.



https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/05...ault-rafale-jets-lost-to-pakistans-air-force/

View attachment 2538205

 

[ChloeTzang]

What actually happened in the huge Indo-Pakistan air battle of May 7, 2025?

Despite the prevailing fog of war, there are now ample clues suggesting the PAF’s performance on May 7 arises from effective use of long-range missiles and AWACS aircraft to form a spotter-shooter-missile kill chain that could threaten Indian fighters even dozens of miles deep into Indian-controlled airspace. Notably, in 2021 Pakistan imported its first advanced Chinese fighters: single-engine Shenyang J-10CEs with stealthy, jam-resistant active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars and compatibility with China’s world-class air-to-air missiles. It also upgraded its burgeoning fleet of JF-17 Thunder jets to the Block III model compatible with long range missiles. (The Thunders are a joint China-Pakistan design mating a modern engine and F-16-style avionics to an evolved MiG-21/F-7 airframe.) Finally, China apparently rushed delivery to Pakistan of the export model of its best air-to-air missile—the PL-15E, which has a dual-pulse motor, satellite navigation and an AESA radar seeker. Though the export PL-15E has only around half the maximum range of domestic PL-15s (90 miles, rather than 180), it still exceeds the range of most missiles used by Indian fighters, save the Meteors carried by India’s Rafales.

The PAF benefited from another special weapon: Swedish aircraft — specifically, Saab 2000s fitted with Erieye radars to serve as AWACS aircraft able to detect and track hostile aircraft out to 280 miles, including low-flying aircraft masking themselves against terrain. These also help coordinate the response by friendly fighters and can even allow these jets to operate more stealthily with their own radars off. Moreover, as China uses the Erieye too, its PL-15 missiles were designed to network with the radar via two-way datalink. That means a Saab 2000 AWACS orbiting safely backfield can transmit guidance instructions to PL-15 missiles fired by Pakistan’s J-10 and JF-17 fighters, even if those jets keep their radars off. This method also can deny targeted aircraft warning of the missile’s approach until the final terminal phase, when the missile’s active seeker turns on to complete the intercept.

While the IAF has the needed ingredients to form long-distance kill-chains as well, using Rafales, Meteor missiles, and Embraer AWACs jets, there is not yet confirmed proof of any successes. Still, air warfare over Ukraine has shown that even outdated fighters, if sufficiently forewarned, can evade long-range missiles. And given the many aircraft involved, it’s possible Pakistani and Indian fighters launched dozens of air-to-air missiles, with only a tiny number reaching their mark.

There remains much we don’t know about the May 7 battle, and additional losses suffered by either side may eventually be revealed. But we do know wreckage from two PL-15 missiles was discovered 60 miles into Indian territory; that one Indian Rafale crashed in India; and that debris found elsewhere offers compelling but not conclusive evidence of a lost Russian-designed fighter, and possibly of a third jet. In addition, parts from two jettisoned BrahMos missiles found east of India’s Sirsa airbase suggest some Indian Su-30MKIs may have been assailed by long-range missiles shortly after taking off, compelling evasive maneuvers eastward and ditching of the heavy BrahMos.

The impact of Pakistan’s and India’s ground-based air defenses (including Chinese HQ-9s and Russian S-400s, respectively) on May 7 remains murky. One analyst argues the IAF didn’t muster adequate electronic-warfare assets for the operation, which could have degraded the effective range of Pakistani missiles—and that Indian communications lacked encryption and proved vulnerable to Pakistani jamming. Possible errors aside, it’s also worth considering how political dynamics constrained planning for India’s air raid. In a wartime combat operation, smart air forces suppress enemy ground-based air defenses and sweep away enemy fighters in advance of, or at least concurrently to raids by strike aircraft targeting primary objectives. But as these nuclear-armed states were not in a state of open war, New Delhi’s plan to control escalation was to target only non-military militant targets, even if retaliation from Pakistan’s military would surely follow. This meant conceding the first shot to Pakistan’s air force.

Whether or not India achieved desired effects from its strikes, the mediatic buzz resulting from the aircraft loss has arguably undermined the operation’s political goals.

Following the raids, Pakistan and India have spent days exchanging large-scale artillery bombardments and drone attacks, including 120 Israeli Harops-2 kamikaze drones targeting Pakistani air defenses, and more than 300 much smaller Turkish Songars launched by Pakistan on the border. So far, neither side seems keen to attempt more large-scale raids by manned jets. Drone expenditures have much less political salience than losing expensive fighters invested with national glory, and with people inside them. However, that could change should the conflict escalate or drone attacks create exploitable air defense gaps.

Overall, the May 7 battle reaffirms the dominance of network-centric beyond-visual-range combat in 21st-century air warfare, and the importance of accurately assessing an adversary’s capabilities and tactics—preferably before the shooting starts. It also highlights how exercises like Cope India don’t usually simulate every aspect of real conflicts.

 

[HumpDayHoratio]

It's all over Twitter, largely from Paki sources. Not so much a close-in dogfight as a long range SAM and AAM engagement. Apparently neither side India or Pakistan entered opposing airspace and they were firing from up to 160km away. It lasted for over an hour and sounds pretty damned intense from the audio I listened too.

One comment I read: "This wasn't a dogfight. It was a demonstration of modern net centric air warfare and battlespace management. The IAF is now a sitting duck in Kashmir..your tactics were old. Your tech failed and your leadership wanting."

View attachment 2537899

Eh…not really a good old fashioned fur ball then…It’s as close as we’ll get in modern times. Thanks for the confirmation though. I figured you’d be on it!

 

[ChloeTzang]

Eh…not really a good old fashioned fur ball then…It’s as close as we’ll get in modern times. Thanks for the confirmation though. I figured you’d be on it!

The article I just reposted is a pretty good summary. Best I've found so far

 

[Politruk]

So, is there going to be a war or not?

 

[dolf]

So, is there going to be a war or not?

I've stockpiled rice, just in case.

 

[TheGxForum]

So, is there going to be a war or not?

Not they already both agreed to ceasefire...

 

[TheGxForum]

I've stockpiled rice, just in case.

It shouldn't affect rice prices since the majority is grown in other countries...

 

[dolf]

India is one of the biggest rice exporters! India and China.
Americans eat mostly home grown, but the rest of the world eats a lot of Indian rice.
If the supply chain is upset in India, prices will rise globally.

 

[TheGxForum]

India is one of the biggest rice exporters! India and China.
Americans eat mostly home grown, but the rest of the world eats a lot of Indian rice.
If the supply chain is upset in India, prices will rise globally.

Ok then that's half the rice market since the 2 biggest are India and China but others especially Thailand/Vietnam/other Asian countries with China combined can probably handle it if Indian rice gets more expensive that's my guess anyways...

 

[Lazaran]

Ok then that's half the rice market since the 2 biggest are India and China but others especially Thailand/Vietnam/other Asian countries with China combined can probably handle it if Indian rice gets more expensive that's my guess anyways...

A supply interruption ANYWHERE affects the price EVERYWHERE. (especially when we’re talking about major producers / suppliers.)

 

[dolf]

Ok then that's half the rice market since the 2 biggest are India and China but others especially Thailand/Vietnam/other Asian countries with China combined can probably handle it if Indian rice gets more expensive that's my guess anyways...

It's not an educated guess though. A drop in supply will create an increase in price.
I'd rather buy an excess while it's cheaper, and thus delay buying it at a higher price.

 

[ChloeTzang]

So, is there going to be a war or not?

no, it's the usual India - Pakistani barking. All noise and no real fight. The Paki terrorists shot a few Indian civvies. Modi had to respond to look strong so the IAF blew away some airfields and terrorist bases. The Paki's shot down a couple of aircraft. Honor is satisfied, both sides can claim a win and everything will go back to normal.

Damn! I was hoping they'd get the call centers.

 

[TheGxForum]

A supply interruption ANYWHERE affects the price EVERYWHERE. (especially when we’re talking about major producers / suppliers.)

Well it's 2 different kinds of rice not like oil where crude is crude it'll effect the Indian rice market but not the rest I'll bet...

 

[TheGxForum]

It's not an educated guess though. A drop in supply will create an increase in price.
I'd rather buy an excess while it's cheaper, and thus delay buying it at a higher price.

Ok but I'll bet the risk will only effect Indian rice prices not the rest...

 

[Lazaran]

Well it's 2 different kinds of rice not like oil where crude is crude it'll effect the Indian rice market but not the rest I'll bet...

Well, “crude is crude” is not accurate, so…

And India is the largest exporter of rice in the world, so…

 

[TheGxForum]

Well, “crude is crude” is not accurate, so…

And India is the largest exporter of rice in the world, so…

Obviously you don't know the different types of rice and different types of markets including the markets for crude oil so...

 

[Lazaran]

Obviously you don't know the different types of rice and different types of markets including the markets for crude oil so...

I know India exports a fuckton of rice, and any interruption in production or export would raise the price of rice worldwide, so…

And there ARE a variety of crude oils (refined at specific refineries) from various sources / countries, and the interruption of the production or export from any of those sources / countries affects the price worldwide, so…

 

[colddiesel]

And as for him and Edwina - Mountbatten admitted: "Edwina and I spent all our married lives getting into other people's beds." The FBI file on Mountbatten, begun after he took on the role of Supreme Allied Commander in Southeast Asia in 1944, describes Mountbatten and his wife Edwina as "persons of extremely low morals", LOL. So very British. LOL

When Edwina died young, unusually in her own bed, aged 58 in 1958. She was "buried" at sea in a rather over the top ceremony. This gave the Queen's mother, not known for her wit, to make the very best remark - " Ah well Edwina always did like to make a splash."

 

[Politruk]

Welcome to the new world of large scale air-to-air combat, in the dead of night and you never actually "see" your opponent because this was fought completely beyond visual range.

Will the world ever see another old-fashioned dogfight, with machine guns?

 

[eric_erosfan]

Will the world ever see another old-fashioned dogfight, with machine guns?

Is there a rival to the A-10 Warthog?

 

[dolf]

Ok but I'll bet the risk will only effect Indian rice prices not the rest...

OK...

If people who buy in Indian rice can't get Indian rice, what will they do?
They'll buy Chinese rice, or American rice, etc.
If you suddenly have more buyers bidding for less product, the buyers will bid more to try to make sure they're the ones who get it.


Question: If you go to the store for basmati and find it out of stock, will you switch to eating curry and mashed potatoes, or just buy a bag of long-grain instead?