You won’t like this….just sayin’

[Politruk]

180B I believe, so far.

The federal budget is $6.8 trillion. $180 billion is not enough saving to notice.

 

[Lazaran]

180B I believe, so far.

You believe wrong, so far.

 

[ADIDAS00]

Thanks for the post! It’s very informative!! Much appreciated

Can I say I see things playing out like this……

Stock markets down…that gives the fed room to lower rates. They need bad news to lower rates. I think the goal of all of this tariff stuff might be to lower rates. That way we can refinance our debt at a lower rate by end of year. That’s when it comes due. High interest rates with a high debt is not good for anyone.

Cause a big stir…. Shock the markets…Which lowers the rates…. Debt is refinanced at a cheaper rate by the end of the year which is when it’s comes due… stock market soars in Q3/Q4 because of cheaper rates…tariff deals get made and no one feels the pain. Lots of negotiations.

Global liquidity is on the rise as it stands now. Banks are loaning money…money is being created…which means Bitcoin rockets to new highs by the end of this year. Quantitative tightening has kind of slowed/stopped. Quantitative easing is on the horizon which means brighter days are ahead.

It’s a win win for all. Maybe I’m too optimistic. I’m always looking at the brighter side of things. Is that bad?

I still stand by this. It’s all playing out.

Everyone is sooooo bearish!! Markets will climb the wall of worry as they always do. Bitcoin is close to an all time high. Quantitative tightening is pretty much over. The fed is now finding secretive ways to inject liquidity. The fed made a huge purchase of treasuries secretly to not have a no bid. The dollar is weaker (as intended for better global trade). Global M2 liquidity is sky rocketing. Lower interest rates are on the horizon next month. Everyone is missing the boat. Every article I read is about how tariffs are going to end the world. Tariffs are such a small part of the global macro picture. I literally couldn’t be more bullish on the rest of the year. I may retire by the end of 2025, lol

 

[ADIDAS00]

The federal budget is $6.8 trillion. $180 billion is not enough saving to notice.

But can we admit it’s A LOT of money? I’m not saying it makes a difference but that’s a shitload of money

 

[ADIDAS00]

You believe wrong, so far.

How much is it then? I really don’t know

 

[Politruk]

Every article I read is about how tariffs are going to end the world. Tariffs are such a small part of the global macro picture.

There's a consensus that America's Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was at least one causal factor in the Great Depression, which had global effects.

 

[Politruk]

But can we admit it’s A LOT of money? I’m not saying it makes a difference but that’s a shitload of money

If that even is a net saving. It might not be, when the economic effects of slashing all those governmental functions and programs are factored in.

 

[ADIDAS00]

There's a consensus that America's Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was at least one causal factor in the Great Depression, which had global effects.

First of all, I appreciate your response. You’re obviously well educated in historical finance.

But I will say, 1929 and today are quite different. Something changed in 2008 after the “great financial crisis”. Ever since 2008, anytime we have a financial threat/crisis, the government intervenes. Recessions and depressions have been outlawed. Any sign of panic, the government injects liquidity (dollars) to save the markets. They’re not just going to let it crash as they did in 1929. COVID was a great lesson in that. We issued like $7 trillion dollars when COVID hit the U.S. and markets roared!!!

My guess is, any sign of recession or depression will release another wave of checks. It might be $10 trillion this time or even more. Nothing stops this train. The markets will melt up not down if a crisis hits.

Weimar Germany…their currency had hyper inflation after the war. The markets absolutely rocketed . The crash isn’t what we have to worry about. It’s the sovereign debt crisis that happens when our money is debased and no one wants our bonds. That’s game over! But guess what happens in that scenario….markets rocket higher because the money is worth less. The melt up is the dooms day scenario….not the crash

But bitcoin to protect yourself

 

[Chilllax]

The federal budget is $6.8 trillion. $180 billion is not enough saving to notice.

But can we admit it’s A LOT of money? I’m not saying it makes a difference but that’s a shitload of money

Here it is from WSJ:
The Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency touts cuts of $55 billion in federal spending, often citing canceled DEI and climate contracts. However, a Wall Street Journal analysis of government contract data showed a much different picture: “Woke” cuts were a tiny fraction of the total, and many claims of savings were overstated.

 

[PersonalFavors]

Only $180 billion?

Lol, just kidding. Someone is going to say they only saved $180 billion not knowing that it equals 180 thousand million dollars. It’s hard to wrap your head around how much money that is. We’re all just trying to get a couple million dollars to retire….much less 180 thousand million dollars. I think we should say it that way so we can try to wrap our mind around that amount of money. It’s wild

How much is stalled by bullshit liberal judges trying to stop progress?

 

[Politruk]

How much is stalled by bullshit liberal judges trying to stop progress?

Nothing going on or being attempted in this admin deserves the name of "progress."

Nothing at all.

 

[ADIDAS00]

Here it is from WSJ:
The Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency touts cuts of $55 billion in federal spending, often citing canceled DEI and climate contracts. However, a Wall Street Journal analysis of government contract data showed a much different picture: “Woke” cuts were a tiny fraction of the total, and many claims of savings were overstated.

So maybe it’s like $40 billion?

 

[Rotadom]

So maybe it’s like $40 billion?

Microsoft Shuts Down Skype: Real Reactions and What’s Next

Change your title.

 

[Typo Fu Master]

So far, my life hasn't been impacted at all. I'm still playing the waiting game. I suspect another 2 to 3 months.

Republicans on here calling Democrats Marxists.

Democrats on here calling Republicans fascists.

Never have I lived in a country so divided.

You could be walking next to each other in a grocery store and if politics never came up, you'd probably have a pleasant conversation.

 

[ADIDAS00]

So far, my life hasn't been impacted at all. I'm still playing the waiting game. I suspect another 2 to 3 months.

Republicans on here calling Democrats Marxists.

Democrats on here calling Republicans fascists.

Never have I lived in a country so divided.

You could be walking next to each other in a grocery store and if politics never came up, you'd probably have a pleasant conversation.

You just explained everything sooooo perfectly!!! Everyone would get along if they didn’t know each others political point of view. When do we get back to those days?

 

[ADIDAS00]

Ok….so inflation numbers this week were 2.3%. Everyone thought it would be higher.

Everyone also thought the markets would crash…which they did. But now we’re like 4-5% off of the highs in the S&P this week.

I think everyone priced in the worst case scenario in April. Now all of the tariffs are getting reduced. Sooo…is it not just up only from now?

Global liquidity is on an absolute tear so some of that money will work its way into bonds, stocks, futures, options, crypto,, real estate, etc.

I think we’re on the verge of a big boom!! Not sayin that there’s not a big bust on the other side. Maybe 2026 is the bust. Could be!!!

 

[HisArpy]

You just explained everything sooooo perfectly!!! Everyone would get along if they didn’t know each others political point of view. When do we get back to those days?

When China destroys the world's electrical grid and the interweebles disappears.

 

[Rightguide]

Please tell me why. I’m all ears. I’d love to hear the other side. I’m not super opinionated to be honest

Rage is his argument; volume is his evidence. When the facts don't favor them, they throw tantrums instead of thoughts.

 

[ADIDAS00]

The tariff scare seems like it’s losing its luster. Is it yesterdays news already?

 

[Slickrick123]

The tariff scare seems like it’s losing its luster. Is it yesterdays news already?

I keep hearing "once the supply runs out" but it seemed like during covid the supply ran out almost instantly.

 

[Lazaran]

The tariff scare seems like it’s losing its luster. Is it yesterdays news already?

DonOld’s tariff / trade chaos was ALWAYS going to be felt down the line, because companies placed massive orders to beat the tariff deadline, so there is currently the illusion that the tariff issue is no big deal.

Also:

Wealthy individuals, corporations, and investment funds are currently propping up the markets to pave the way for their deregulations and tax cuts gift (grift) from congress (if the markets were crashing right now, the republicans in congress would be under intense scrutiny / pressure when it comes to giving MOAR tax cuts to the wealthy and corporations). Why do you think the republicans are in such a rush to pass those deregulations & tax cuts??? It’s because the wealthy and corporations, etc, can’t prop up the market much longer: Pretty soon, economic reality is going to come crashing down on them (and everybody else).



Ultimately:

DonOld’s tariff / trade chaos chickens WILL come home to roost. Give it time.

Hope that ^ helps.



We. Told. Them. So.

 

[heathrowinneo]

I still stand by this. It’s all playing out.

Everyone is sooooo bearish!! Markets will climb the wall of worry as they always do. Bitcoin is close to an all time high. Quantitative tightening is pretty much over. The fed is now finding secretive ways to inject liquidity. The fed made a huge purchase of treasuries secretly to not have a no bid. The dollar is weaker (as intended for better global trade). Global M2 liquidity is sky rocketing. Lower interest rates are on the horizon next month. Everyone is missing the boat. Every article I read is about how tariffs are going to end the world. Tariffs are such a small part of the global macro picture. I literally couldn’t be more bullish on the rest of the year. I may retire by the end of 2025, lol

you need to factor in foreign exchange and the dollar. The value of the dollar and it's value to other currencies is worrisome to the bond market. 10 year is at 4.49% and heading north. FX eur/$ is 1.12. That is causing problems and driving higher interest rates.

 

[ADIDAS00]

you need to factor in foreign exchange and the dollar. The value of the dollar and it's value to other currencies is worrisome to the bond market. 10 year is at 4.49% and heading north. FX eur/$ is 1.12. That is causing problems and driving higher interest rates.

You’re right, the rates are going higher on treasuries. I think that’s bullish actually. With the lack of demand for treasuries, the government is starting to buy their own bonds by printing money. This is quantitative easing without doing quantitative easing. Anytime they print money out of thin air, asset prices usually go up, not down. I think all roads lead to markets going higher.

Buy Bitcoin…it was literally created for this

 

[heathrowinneo]

You’re right, the rates are going higher on treasuries. I think that’s bullish actually. With the lack of demand for treasuries, the government is starting to buy their own bonds by printing money. This is quantitative easing without doing quantitative easing. Anytime they print money out of thin air, asset prices usually go up, not down. I think all roads lead to markets going higher.

Buy Bitcoin…it was literally created for this

bullish? maybe your opinion but not my opinion. i think its bear'esque and migrating toward bear market. the bond markets are not happy with the volatility and unstable government policies. the higher rates are due to drop in investors, notably foreign investors, wanting to buy american debt. the rates will go up to entice investors to buy more debt. inflation is on the way when governments start printing more money. the f/x is another tell-tale sign that america has lost some luster as the safe haven for investors. As for the markets going hire, we will see. Right now they are taking the down elevator to the bargain basement. As for bitcoin, I'm with Warren Buffett when he called bitcoin, avoid it.

 

[ADIDAS00]

you need to factor in foreign exchange and the dollar. The value of the dollar and it's value to other currencies is worrisome to the bond market. 10 year is at 4.49% and heading north. FX eur/$ is 1.12. That is causing problems and driving higher interest rates.

I’m still on the “nothing stops this train” philosophy. Everyone is sooooooo bearish….but Fiscal spending is still going up. The government is creating money to buy their own bonds. M2 Global liquidity is going straight up. All of this money being created and spent has to end up somewhere. Some of it will go to markets which will inflate prices. I see all time highs for the stock market in Q3/Q4.

Most of my wealth is in Bitcoin and it recently hit an all time high. I see it going to $150,000’ish by Q3/Q4. Life is good!!