I find myself pondering conscription.

[dolf]

Obviously, I'm far too old. But my husband isn't.
My son is already in the military, but my daughter isn't.
I think her size and autism would rule her out for a combat role.
Weirdly, my job might actually become quite important in the event of war.

We're already sending billions in aid and equipment, and now the government has announced a big increase in defence spending. So what do y'all think the odds are of this becoming a full scale European conflict? I'm not feeling massively optimistic.

Edit to mention I'm not American.

 

[KylieWyoti]

Based on today's Zelensky thing, and other words and actions from this administration, my take is that we (the US) are moving in the other direction. More likely to reduce or eliminate support for Ukraine, and more likely to reduce future commitment to NATO.

Personally I think that's dangerous, because Putin will keep pushing, and NATO will have difficulty confronting him without our support.

More likely conflict zones would be Middle East (we would support Israel vs Iran) and Asia / Taiwan.

 

[Politruk]

The United States will probably never again fight the kind of war where victory goes to the side that can put more troops in the field.

 

[KylieWyoti]

The United States will probably never again fight the kind of war where victory goes to the side that can put more troops in the field.

I wouldn't say never, but yeah I agree in general.

 

[dolf]

Based on today's Zelensky thing, and other words and actions from this administration, my take is that we (the US) are moving in the other direction. More likely to reduce or eliminate support for Ukraine, and more likely to reduce future commitment to NATO.

Personally I think that's dangerous, because Putin will keep pushing, and NATO will have difficulty confronting him without our support.

More likely conflict zones would be Middle East (we would support Israel vs Iran) and Asia / Taiwan.

The United States will probably never again fight the kind of war where victory goes to the side that can put more troops in the field.

That doesn't really answer my question though. The lack of American support for Ukraine makes an escalation in Europe more likely.
And, although conscription isn't anywhere near inevitable, it's not unlikely if things escalate.

 

[Chernosoth]

War is what Europe does, possibly more than anywhere else in the world. The Ukraine war was its last pretense of global power. Now that it has completely fallen off the global stage, it will go back to its default state of constant petty squabbles between and within nations. Meanwhile, immigration, very low native birthrates, and possibly some invading and conquering will make Muslim majorities in most of Europe. Insh'Allah.

 

[dolf]

War is what Europe does, possibly more than anywhere else in the world. The Ukraine war was its last pretense of global power. Now that it has completely fallen off the global stage, it will go back to its default state of constant petty squabbles between and within nations. Meanwhile, immigration, very low native birthrates, and possibly some invading and conquering will make Muslim majorities in most of Europe. Insh'Allah.

When I say Europe, I mean the continent.
When you say Europe, do you mean the continent or the EU?

 

[Politruk]

Meanwhile, immigration, very low native birthrates, and possibly some invading and conquering will make Muslim majorities in most of Europe.

Not in the next 100 years, they won't. The whole Eurabia thing is just pernicious xenophobic nonsense.

 

[dolf]

Not in the next 100 years, they won't. The whole Eurabia thing is just pernicious xenophobic nonsense.

2021 census found 6.5% Muslim, 46.2% Christian, and 38% had no religion.

 

[TastySuckToy]

As far as I'm concerned, anyone in favour of the Ukraine war and fighting Russia should automatically be conscripted to go fight the war and have their finances immediately directed to the war effort. You want the war to continue, then you go fight it and you pay for it.

If you're not willing to gear up to fight and put your money into the war effort, then you're just a chickenshit coward who wants to spend other people's money on war and make other people fight and die in it.

 

[Bray123]

The 'squabbles' in Europe are the results of the end of WW2, Cold War and pre-war colonialism.

Ukraine - Russia wanting to restore the Cold War boundaries, encouraged by the US reneging on the defense treaty due to Zelensky refusing to invent corruption fantasies to benefit the Felon's election campaign.

Break-up of Yugoslavia - False boundaries created at the end of WW2 caused ethnic frictions. The boundaries have reverted to the pre-war maps.

That's about it really, Europe has been peaceful otherwise since WW2.

 

[Chernosoth]

When I say Europe, I mean the continent.
When you say Europe, do you mean the continent or the EU?

The EU will be gone fairly soon. Europe is a peninsula or a few peninsulas of a continent. The eastern edge of Europe could be drawn at either side of Ukraine or through the middle.

 

[Politruk]

2021 census found 6.5% Muslim, 46.2% Christian, and 38% had no religion.

Right. The Muslims in Europe are going to lose their religion long before they constitute a majority. So are the Muslims in America.

 

[Politruk]

As far as I'm concerned, anyone in favour of the Ukraine war and fighting Russia should automatically be conscripted to go fight the war and have their finances immediately directed to the war effort. You want the war to continue, then you go fight it and you pay for it.

If you're not willing to gear up to fight and put your money into the war effort, then you're just a chickenshit coward who wants to spend other people's money on war and make other people fight and die in it.

In the 1930s and '40s, chickenshit cowards who wanted to spend other people's money and blood on war did a lot more good to the country and the world than the isolationists did.

 

[dolf]

As far as I'm concerned, anyone in favour of the Ukraine war and fighting Russia should automatically be conscripted to go fight the war and have their finances immediately directed to the war effort. You want the war to continue, then you go fight it and you pay for it.

If you're not willing to gear up to fight and put your money into the war effort, then you're just a chickenshit coward who wants to spend other people's money on war and make other people fight and die in it.

Well that was... entirely irrelevant to the question.
But clearly you were waiting for an opportunity to say it to somebody, so, urm... congratulations?

Ukraine - Russia wanting to restore the Cold War boundaries, encouraged by the US reneging on the defense treaty due to Zelensky refusing to invent corruption fantasies to benefit the Felon's election campaign.

Break-up of Yugoslavia - False boundaries created at the end of WW2 caused ethnic frictions. The boundaries have reverted to the pre-war maps.

That's about it really, Europe has been peaceful otherwise since WW2.

It's interesting how easily the resentment of the ancestors is revived. It's been used as a tool for public opinion.
When the uk joined the Iraq invasion, people talked about us being allies in ww1&2.
If war breaks out in Europe, in the current mood the talk will be of us being enemies since 1775.

 

[TastySuckToy]

Well that was... entirely irrelevant to the question.
But clearly you were waiting for an opportunity to say it to somebody, so, urm... congratulations?

You clearly didn't get my point.

Start conscripting all those in favour of war and get them to pay for it, and watch the sudden shift of mentality towards negotiation and peace.

If you're truly worried about the conflict escalating and the future, you should appreciation the notion that becomes a self correcting solution to the problem of the war.

 

[dolf]

You clearly didn't get my point.

Start conscripting all those in favour of war and get them to pay for it, and watch the sudden shift of mentality towards negotiation and peace.

If you're truly worried about the conflict escalating and the future, you should appreciation the notion that becomes a self correcting solution to the problem of the war.

I got your point. It really wasn't relevant.
My taxes are already contributing. My son is already indirectly contributing.
But I'm not asking about your opinions on the morality of supporting Ukraine v allowing Putin to push to regain USSR territory. You just wanted a soapbox moment.

The question was what the likelihood of it turning into a full scale European conflict. Europe the continent, not the EU organisation.

 

[Politruk]

The question was what the likelihood of it turning into a full scale European conflict. Europe the continent, not the EU organisation.

In a war with all the EU countries on one side and Russia on the other, Russia wouldn't last long.

 

[TastySuckToy]

You just wanted a soapbox moment.

Ah yes, wanting to end human death, suffering and destruction from the war. Just a "soapbox moment".

 

[dolf]

Ah yes, wanting to end human death, suffering and destruction from the war. Just a "soapbox moment".

The people in favour of all out, continent wide war are those with money in weapons, plans for profiting from the aftermath , and enough money to ensure their family can summon up a mythical medical exemption.

Meanwhile, those of us with people to lose and no profit to make are wondering what the likelihood of war is.

You clearly don't have any insight to offer. Just a soapbox to stand on.

 

[TastySuckToy]

Just a soapbox to stand on.

Being anti-war is just "soapbox" for you. Gotcha.

 

[Politruk]

Ah yes, wanting to end human death, suffering and destruction from the war. Just a "soapbox moment".

See post #14.

 

[dolf]

Being anti-war is just "soapbox" for you. Gotcha.

Are you always this tedious?

Do you see anyone replying thus far saying anything pro war?

 

[TastySuckToy]

Are you always this tedious?

Do you see anyone replying thus far saying anything pro war?

You've clearly established that you think expressing an anti-war perspective is "soapbox" material. If you're trying to make any other point, I'm not seeing it.

 

[dolf]

You've clearly established that you think expressing an anti-war perspective is "soapbox" material. If you're trying to make any other point, I'm not seeing it.

And you've clearly established that you have no intention of ever discussing the topic of the thread. So why are you here if not to soapbox?

Henceforth I'll be ignoring your monologues in favour of discussing the liklihood of my family getting shot at.