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For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

For Those Who Think the Kremlin is willing to hold genuine negotiations and end the war​

Russia's statements and actions once again underscore the Kremlin's unwillingness to negotiate fairly and end the war in Ukraine.
  • The Kremlin once again reiterated its claim that Ukraine lacks sovereignty, setting the stage for Moscow to argue that Ukraine has no right to negotiate with Russia or that any future agreements reached with Ukraine are invalid.
  • Medvedchuk's interview and Peskov's statements of 16 February continue to cast doubt on Moscow's readiness to negotiate fairly in order to resolve the war and create information conditions for Russia to violate any agreements reached on the grounds that the Ukrainian authorities allegedly had no legal right to conclude them.
  • The Russian military appears to be preparing for a multi-year effort to capture Ukraine's "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast, which once again underscores Putin's clear disinterest in a lasting and durable peace in Ukraine.
  • Ukraine's European partners reiterated their support for Ukraine's war effort and domestic defence industry at the Munich Security Conference.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/02/17/7498665/
 
I'm afraid Trump is over-estimating himself when it comes to Ukraine. He may be able to influence Putin but his leverage over Zelensky is limited, and he's succeeded in waking up Europe, that's for sure. In overall terms, Europe is a superpower, industrially and militarily, that has lain quiescent since WW2 and the end of the Cold War, for rather obvious reasons. What Putin, and now Trump, between them have succeeded in doing is waking up Europe as European politics takes a marked turn to the right and towards a resurgent nationalism.

Trump may wish for peace, for whatever reasons, but it looks very much as if the peace he is looking for will come at Ukraine's cost. Zelensky has already started what Ukraine is looking for - the return of the 2014 borders, Russian withdrawal and Putin in jail for his war crimes. Trump has already tried to shaft Ukraine on minerals, Putin is already laying the grounds to renege on any deal, and I doubt his "negotiations" with Putin will come up with anything acceptable to Ukraine. This is where the EU's support for Ukraine becomes important, as it becomes more and more obvious Ukraine will need to continue fighting without American support in future, other than what the EU can but from America on Ukraine's behalf.

The question is, does the EU have the political will to step up, and the managerial ability to actually get things done, industrially.

If we look at the numbers, it’s obvious how enormous the contribution of the EU to Ukraine’s defense has been over the last three years. To say that the EU helps Ukraine less than the USA is simply untrue. In real terms, the total aid allocated by European countries to Ukraine over the past three years surpasses the US – nearing almost 140 billion euros as of February 2025, according to the IFW. Even in terms of military support, where the United States has almost limitless resources compared to Europeans, Ukraine is armed with more European-provided equipment.
  • The EU has supplied more planes, more tanks, more IFVs. Europeans are even responsible for providing more Patriots to Ukraine than Washington. According to publicly available data from Oryx, the contribution of Europe and the US to Ukraine, broken down by main types of arms is as follows:
  • Europe supplied Ukraine with 51 planes of different types, and another 85 are waiting to be delivered. USA - 0.(Of note is that Europeans gave away most of their F-16s to Ukraine, instead signing contracts to replace them with newer and more expensive F-35 models from US companies)
  • Helicopters, Europe supplied 73, USA - 21.
  • Tanks, Europe supplied 887 tanks, USA - 31 Abrams, and paid for 45 Soviet Т-72s, which were modernized in Czechia and given to Ukraine. More European tanks have been committed to being delivered, as well as Australia's 49 Abrams. Nothing additional is expected from the USA.
  • IFVs, Europe provided 1086 units of different types, USA - 300 Bradleys. No new American commitment. The EU is committed to delivering 100's of Lynxes and CV90's over 2025 and into 2026
  • AFV's - haven't been able to pull the numbers on these but again, European deliveries well exceed the number of Strykers handed over
  • Towed artillery, according to public data, US supplied 259 howitzers, while Europe provided 183, but the real numbers are likely higher, as many countries were not open about their deliveries as the US was. Ukraine is also now producing approximately 250 x 155mm guns per year with the number climbing.
  • Self-propelled guns, Europe supplied 762 units of various types, USA provided 18. Germany is delivering additional units, as is France.
  • Multiple launch rocket systems, US provided 40 Himars, Europe supplied 28 Himars and analogues (M270), as well as over 50 post-Soviet MLRS models.
  • Patriots: Ukraine received 2 batteries from the US, while the Europeans provided:- 3 batteries and 6 line batteries (1 Patriot battery consists of up to 8 line batteries) from Germany;- 5 line batteries from the Netherlands;- 1 battery from Romania, paid for by US and Norway;- 2 SAMP/T batteries – French-Italian Patriot analogues. PS: Just to make things clear, this is not final official data, but analysis of open source information. Yes, a lot of this equipment is US-made, but it was EU countries who bought it for Ukraine, or gave the AFU their stocks (sometimes draining their own supplies completely) and placed new orders with US companies.
The United States jas played a crucial role in Ukraine’s defense so far, but Europeans will need to step up their contributions, spending, and overall focus on defense, if the US is to take a more hands-off approach, as seems likely. This won't be easy, but the time has come for Germany and France to step up and take a leadership role and build the defense sector according to the level of threat. Europe needs to guarantee its own security and can clearly no longer shelter behind the US defense umbrella, a point eump clearly made during his first term.

The way towards increasing Europe’s role in the continent’s defence is clear. Now, priorities are being set, spending is being planned, coordination is happening. Defense and security are a long-term task for the EU. The Ukraine issue is key. What is needed is not a quick ceasefire at any cost, as Trump would seem to want, but a stable peace and a deterrence against any new war. This is the foundation and it may mean that Europe and Ukraine continue to fight without American backing, although no doubt Trump will be willing to make a quick buck by selling old weapons and ammo to Europe for Ukraine to use.

A strong Ukraine = a strong Europe. A strong Ukrainian army is the key towards deterring Russia. Europe has already shown itself as one of the most reliable and generous partners of Ukraine, a partner that is capable of putting their priorities straight.

1739791524625.png
 
Donald Trump negotiated the surrender deal of the USA to the Taliban in Afghanistan, the later withdrawal executed with mind boggling incompetence by Biden's people.

That example does not bode well for Ukraine, but this time Trump will get top billing for the whole shit show.
 
ChloeTzang said:
I'm afraid Trump is over-estimating himself when it comes to Ukraine. He may be able to influence Putin but his leverage over Zelensky is limited, and he's succeeded in waking up Europe, that's for sure. In overall terms, Europe is a superpower, industrially and militarily, that has lain quiescent since WW2 and the end of the Cold War, for rather obvious reasons. What Putin, and now Trump, between them have succeeded in doing is waking up Europe as European politics takes a marked turn to the right and towards a resurgent nationalism.

Trump may wish for peace, for whatever reasons, but it looks very much as if the peace he is looking for will come at Ukraine's cost. Zelensky has already started what Ukraine is looking for - the return of the 2014 borders, Russian withdrawal and Putin in jail for his war crimes. Trump has already tried to shaft Ukraine on minerals, Putin is already laying the grounds to renege on any deal, and I doubt his "negotiations" with Putin will come up with anything acceptable to Ukraine. This is where the EU's support for Ukraine becomes important, as it becomes more and more obvious Ukraine will need to continue fighting without American support in future, other than what the EU can but from America on Ukraine's behalf.

The question is, does the EU have the political will to step up, and the managerial ability to actually get things done, industrially.

If we look at the numbers, it’s obvious how enormous the contribution of the EU to Ukraine’s defense has been over the last three years. To say that the EU helps Ukraine less than the USA is simply untrue. In real terms, the total aid allocated by European countries to Ukraine over the past three years surpasses the US – nearing almost 140 billion euros as of February 2025, according to the IFW. Even in terms of military support, where the United States has almost limitless resources compared to Europeans, Ukraine is armed with more European-provided equipment.
  • The EU has supplied more planes, more tanks, more IFVs. Europeans are even responsible for providing more Patriots to Ukraine than Washington. According to publicly available data from Oryx, the contribution of Europe and the US to Ukraine, broken down by main types of arms is as follows:
  • Europe supplied Ukraine with 51 planes of different types, and another 85 are waiting to be delivered. USA - 0.(Of note is that Europeans gave away most of their F-16s to Ukraine, instead signing contracts to replace them with newer and more expensive F-35 models from US companies)
  • Helicopters, Europe supplied 73, USA - 21.
  • Tanks, Europe supplied 887 tanks, USA - 31 Abrams, and paid for 45 Soviet Т-72s, which were modernized in Czechia and given to Ukraine. More European tanks have been committed to being delivered, as well as Australia's 49 Abrams. Nothing additional is expected from the USA.
  • IFVs, Europe provided 1086 units of different types, USA - 300 Bradleys. No new American commitment. The EU is committed to delivering 100's of Lynxes and CV90's over 2025 and into 2026
  • AFV's - haven't been able to pull the numbers on these but again, European deliveries well exceed the number of Strykers handed over
  • Towed artillery, according to public data, US supplied 259 howitzers, while Europe provided 183, but the real numbers are likely higher, as many countries were not open about their deliveries as the US was. Ukraine is also now producing approximately 250 x 155mm guns per year with the number climbing.
  • Self-propelled guns, Europe supplied 762 units of various types, USA provided 18. Germany is delivering additional units, as is France.
  • Multiple launch rocket systems, US provided 40 Himars, Europe supplied 28 Himars and analogues (M270), as well as over 50 post-Soviet MLRS models.
  • Patriots: Ukraine received 2 batteries from the US, while the Europeans provided:- 3 batteries and 6 line batteries (1 Patriot battery consists of up to 8 line batteries) from Germany;- 5 line batteries from the Netherlands;- 1 battery from Romania, paid for by US and Norway;- 2 SAMP/T batteries – French-Italian Patriot analogues. PS: Just to make things clear, this is not final official data, but analysis of open source information. Yes, a lot of this equipment is US-made, but it was EU countries who bought it for Ukraine, or gave the AFU their stocks (sometimes draining their own supplies completely) and placed new orders with US companies.
The United States jas played a crucial role in Ukraine’s defense so far, but Europeans will need to step up their contributions, spending, and overall focus on defense, if the US is to take a more hands-off approach, as seems likely. This won't be easy, but the time has come for Germany and France to step up and take a leadership role and build the defense sector according to the level of threat. Europe needs to guarantee its own security and can clearly no longer shelter behind the US defense umbrella, a point eump clearly made during his first term.

The way towards increasing Europe’s role in the continent’s defence is clear. Now, priorities are being set, spending is being planned, coordination is happening. Defense and security are a long-term task for the EU. The Ukraine issue is key. What is needed is not a quick ceasefire at any cost, as Trump would seem to want, but a stable peace and a deterrence against any new war. This is the foundation and it may mean that Europe and Ukraine continue to fight without American backing, although no doubt Trump will be willing to make a quick buck by selling old weapons and ammo to Europe for Ukraine to use.

A strong Ukraine = a strong Europe. A strong Ukrainian army is the key towards deterring Russia. Europe has already shown itself as one of the most reliable and generous partners of Ukraine, a partner that is capable of putting their priorities straight.

View attachment 2496291
Click to expand...
47 is literally telling Ukraine that they must give up land and future NATO considers. When asked what Russia should give up, the answer is nothing.
 
ll74 said:
47 is literally telling Ukraine that they must give up land and future NATO considers. When asked what Russia should give up, the answer is nothing.
Click to expand...
Yah, well he voted for Trump....what the hell do you expect. Chloe will justify Trump's plan,even though it goes total against what Chloe believes.
 
ll74 said:
47 is literally telling Ukraine that they must give up land and future NATO considers. When asked what Russia should give up, the answer is nothing.
Click to expand...

Yep, it sounds like that. I hope not. It sounds like Zelensky will have no part of it if that's the outcome, and I honestly can't see Putin negotiating in good faith at all. And Zelensky won't cave without a lot more than seems to be on offer, as well as surefire guarantees, which Trump will not provide. Seems a bit silly to me to be doing this now when Russia is on the point of collapsing.

On the third hand, US aid is, I think, locked in for 2025 - one thing Biden managed to do, even if it was too little too late, and Europe IS stepping up, again too little to late, but the last three years has given Ukraine's military a window to expand and equip to the point where they can hold Russia off. The big thing now is artillery ammo and I have no idea what will happen there. Can Europe by itself keep Ukraine supplied with enough? Probably they can, they have all been expanding production. More Leopards and Marders keep trickling in, Lynx's and Fuchs for Ukraine are starting to roll out, more Patrias are coming, CV90's are too....the UK is manufacturing artillery barrels, Ukraine is bhurning out it's own artillery and their own ammo production is expanding.

As for drones, they're pouring out, more and more of them, and more cheaply too. Over the next little while we should see some big hits on Russian infrastructure as the drone attacks become larger and larger and more effective. At the very least, Ukraine can hold it's own without American support, and as it destroys the Russian economy and keeps killing or incapacitating Russians at 50-60k per month, Russia's ability to fight this war will deplete. They key thing for Ukraine now is to avoid a ceasefire, keep slaughtering Russians and destroying their industry, particularly oil and military-related manufacturing. Targeting factories with the workers in them would be a good move. As would identifying and drone bombing the housing of Russian pilots and air crew, as well as senior officers and politicians.
 
Article from Sept 2024 - Ukraine Is Now Able To Produce 155mm Artillery Shells And Howitzers

The gist of it
  • Ukraine is now producing 155mm ammo in unknown quantities and is expected to triple production by the end of 2024
  • Ukraine also announced earlier this year that they have an agreement with the German company Rheinmetall to develop facilities for producing 155mm ammunition. Once complete, these facilities are expected to produce enough rounds to sustain Ukraine’s current expenditure of 155mm ammunition. This ends there reliance on the US for 155mm ammo. They likely have enough now stockpiled and from EU production to hang in there
  • Ukraine is domestically producing it's own self-propelled howitzer, the 2S22 Bohdana 155mm. Last update I read (Oct 2024) said 20 per month but this had been continually expanding over last year. Zelensky has said they are now producing the largest number of self-propelled howitzers in Europe per month (he said this in July 2024).
https://www.forbes.com/sites/vikram...produce-155mm-artillery-shells-and-howitzers/

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine...-howitzers-in-europe-per-month-zelensky-says/

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/10...rs-increased-to-about-20-zelenskyy-announces/
 

Zelenskyy won't recognize US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia that exclude Ukraine​


“Ukraine considers any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine as having no result,” the Ukrainian President told journalists. Kyiv was not informed about and will not recognize planned negotiations between US and Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia since there will be no Ukrainian representatives present, according to Interfax-Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Trump declined to recognize Ukraine as an equal participant in peace negotiations. I suspect Trump is in for some disappointment here. This ain't gonna work they way he thinks it will.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/02...ssia-talks-in-saudi-arabia-excluding-ukraine/
 
Germany’s Helsing to deliver 6,000 HX-2 strike drones to Ukraine

Helsing, the German defense technology company, has announced the production of 6,000 HX-2 strike drones for delivery to Ukraine. This follows a previous order of 4,000 HF-1 strike drones, which are currently being delivered in partnership with Ukrainian industry. Unveiled in late 2024, the HX-2 is an electrically propelled X-wing precision munition with a range of up to 100 kilometers. The drone features advanced onboard artificial intelligence, enabling full resistance to electronic warfare tactics. When integrated with Helsing’s Altra reconnaissance-strike software, multiple HX-2 drones can operate as a coordinated swarm, controlled by a single operator. Designed for mass production at a significantly lower unit cost than conventional weapons, the HX-2 is intended to address the growing need for precision-strike capabilities in modern land warfare.

Helsing’s initiative aligns with ongoing efforts to enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities, with European nations increasingly supporting drone warfare advancements. The HX-2, designed for rapid deployment and adaptability, represents a new phase in unmanned aerial warfare, with mass production capabilities potentially reshaping modern battlefield dynamics.

Even considering Ukraine is producing more than 200,000 drones a month itself, this is a not insignificant contribution, and it is only one amongst many, with other countries also delivering thousands of drones to Ukraine.

https://defence-blog.com/germanys-h...ukraine/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
1739809167935.png
 
This is the map Russia is sharing in social media platforms, calling for victory and saying those are the borders after the peace agreement with their partners from the USA.

I doubt this is how things will play out, but it does illustrate all too well that Putin and Russia are not at all interested in genuine negotiations.

1739815803971.png
 
ChloeTzang said:
This is the map Russia is sharing in social media platforms, calling for victory and saying those are the borders after the peace agreement with their partners from the USA.

I doubt this is how things will play out, but it does illustrate all too well that Putin and Russia are not at all interested in genuine negotiations.

View attachment 2496493
Click to expand...
47 will use this map in negotiations.
 
Of course Trump says he will allow Europe to buy US weapons for Ukraine

US President Donald Trump has said that he is ready to allow Europe to buy US-made weapons to be transferred to Ukraine. It seems to be tied to the peace negotiantions but who knows....Maybe Trump should just return the nukes to Ukraine.

What this is all illustrating though is that like North Korean and Iran, and country which wishes NOT be to invaded needs nuclear weapons.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/02/17/7498664/
 

US Envoy for Russo-Ukrainian war says US will not impose peace deal on Ukraine​


Kellogg believes that both Russia and Ukraine are ready to end hostilities, as neither side can achieve a decisive victory on the battlefield. He told journalists that it seems that both sides want to "exit the game".

He's delusional. Putin only wants a temporary ceasefire so he can rebuild the Russian military and have another go round.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/02/17/7498802/
 
John Mac Ghlionn wrote a great piece for The Hill about the comedian-turned-president:

“Overnight, the media transformed him into the embodiment of courage, the Churchill of Kyiv, the man who refused to flee, the warrior standing against tyranny. But what if this narrative is entirely false? What if Zelensky, rather than being the hero in this story, is actually the man who won’t allow the war to end — not for the good of his people, but because peace would mean his own downfall?”

“It is no coincidence that as Ukraine’s battlefield prospects worsen, as soldiers defect, as forced conscription spirals into something resembling kidnapping, Zelensky has once again extended martial law. No elections. No peace talks. No escape. Because if the war ends, so does his presidency. And this, more than anything, explains why the war must go on.”

“Since Russia’s invasion in 2022, Zelensky had banned several opposition parties, banned certain media outlets and postponed elections with the justification that wartime voting is “impossible.” Impossible for whom? For the soldiers in the trenches, or for the civilians now living under indefinite martial law?

[…] And yet the war must continue. It is the only thing keeping Zelensky in power. If he were to call elections, he would likely lose. Support for him is falling. The longer this drags on, the more obvious it becomes that Ukraine cannot win — not in any meaningful sense. This is not 2022. The optimism of those early months, when the world believed Ukraine might push Russia back, is gone. Even the U.S., Ukraine’s biggest backer, is slowly dialing down support, with Washington insiders admitting that a total Ukrainian victory is no longer the goal.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...ensky-can-t-afford-to-end-the-war/ar-AA1z7ICe
 
colddiesel said:
Donald Trump negotiated the surrender deal of the USA to the Taliban in Afghanistan, the later withdrawal executed with mind boggling incompetence by Biden's people.

That example does not bode well for Ukraine, but this time Trump will get top billing for the whole shit show.
Click to expand...

You’re right about DonOld, but WRONG about the withdrawal effort.

The withdrawal from Afghanistan (under unprecedentedly difficult / challenging conditions) was a magnificent achievement by President Biden’s administration and the amazing service members of the U.S. armed forces, and it was the CORRECT decision.

Please educate yourself before commenting.

TIA

👍

🇺🇸
 
Rightguide said:
".....Even the U.S., Ukraine’s biggest backer, is slowly dialing down support, with Washington insiders admitting that a total Ukrainian victory is no longer the goal.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...ensky-can-t-afford-to-end-the-war/ar-AA1z7ICe
Click to expand...

Should read "no longer the American goal." We know it was never Biden's. The aid the Biden Administration provided was never enough to allow Ukraine to win, and he cut of aid at critical junctures, ensuring Ukraine suffered unnecessary defeats. The only real battlefield success Ukraine has achieved (Kursk) was achieved because Ukraine DID NOT share any info with the USA and kept it secret. Lets not pretend that a Ukraine victory was ever something that the Biden Admin wanted, and Zelensky and Ukraine understand that very clearly. Trump is just continuing Biden's policy, albeit he is articulating it openly and bluntly.

Of course, in articulating it openly, Trump has gone ahead and confirmed what Biden had been making plain. America is no longer a reliable partner, and other countries had better start looking after their own defense spending and not sheltering under the arms of the US Taxpayer. In Europe, that means the EU needs to front up fast and increase their military spending and preparedness. With the exception of Finland, Poland and Sweden, their militaries are a joke. This has to terrify the fuck out of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania too, as well as states like Romania. Given Russia's nuclear threats over Ukraine, it also raises the possibility that other countries may decide they need their own nuclear umbrella. Ukraine decidedly included.

Trump has also been very clear that it's up to Ukraine to accept the result of his negotiations as well. Given the way these have been conducted so far, it seems likely that he will walk away from supporting Ukraine if these are not accepted. They likely won't be acceptable. Given also that he's not prepared to put substantial American boots on the ground by way of guarantees, and also that he and Biden have proved the 1992 Budapest agreement to be a worthless piece of paper, I can't see Ukraine accepting any paper guarantees. "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me," pretty much applies here.

Nope, Trump looks to be looking for an excuse to walk away, just when Putin is being pushed back and will soon be on the ropes. With stepped up and far more urgent EU support (now there's the big question) Ukraine can keep on fighting this war without American help, but this will be at the cost of America and Europe going their separate ways, and that means when it comes to China, America will be on it's own. Look now also to see Taiwan going nuclear. They almost did once before. And if South Korea, Japan and Australia are smart, they'll move towards an accommodation with China. There's going to be a lot of additional defense spending coming up and realpolitik will be taking the front seat....

The Fourth Turning indeed......
 
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