For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[Niceguy2000]

I like your optimism!
However, I'd be cautious about sourcing some numbers.

I checked today, the Russians have lost somewhere between 120-200,000 men killed. But as Germany found out in the last European war, you can't bleed Russia dry.

If nothing else, this war has exposed the Russians for their true selves.

Hopefully, Trump will be more aggressive in dealing with Putin...and with the remaining NATO members who are still lagging on defense...Croatia, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, Luxembourg and Canada. The last is no surprise, their entire combat air force is about the size of two USAF fighter wings.

While talking a lot, Biden has been too cautious in helping Ukraine, for example by not releasing surplus U.S. jets. I think he's afraid of angering Putin or more plausibly, afraid of alienating his party's left wing who for the last 50 years have been anti war to the point of being pro Soviet/Russian.

Of course Putin has done a service to the west, most NATO members have increased their defense budgets in light of his aggression.

 

[Politruk]

We also know Trump won't ever do anything Putin doesn't want him to.

This cannot be repeated often enough.

 

[ChloeTzang]

This cannot be repeated often enough.

Too much koolaid drunk

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Germany to deploy two Patriot air defense systems in Poland to protect aid center for Ukraine​

Two MIM-104 Patriot systems and 200 Bundeswehr soldiers will be deployed in Poland for about six months, starting in late January 2025. In addition to Germany, Norway also deployed its air defense systems to protect the logistics center. In December 2024, Norway deployed the NASAMS anti-aircraft missile system at Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport. The Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport in Poland is a key transit hub for foreign military support for the Ukrainian Defense Forces. This hub receives 90% of Western aid to Ukraine.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/germany-t...otect-aid-center-for-ukraine/#google_vignette

 

[ChloeTzang]

Neptune Missile Hits Military Warehouse in Rostov Region​

This is what you do with drones and cruise missiles. You run local Russian air defense out of missiles & gun munitions and then the cruise missile arrives.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/neptune-missile-hits-military-warehouse-in-rostov-region/

 

[ChloeTzang]

In case anyone missed the obvious, Russian losses in 2024 were greater than 2022 and 2023 combined. It is worth noting that the Russian loss of ~429,660 personnel in 2024 is similar to British losses in the WW1 Somme campaign. There is one very important difference between the Somme and the 2022 to date Russo-Ukrainian War. The WW1 British lost ~1 KIA for every 4-5 WIA in the Somme. Most of the UK missing and 1 in 10 of the wounded were either dead, or died of wound infections, respectively.

While Russia's loss ratio in Ukraine & Kursk Oblast is of the order of 1:1 - 1.5 between KIA and WIA due to failed or non-existent field medicine or medevac (specifically 15,000 KIA out of 38,000 casualties in Kursk for a ratio of 1:1.5 KIA:WIA). Russia simply leaves its dead and its wounded (dying of blood loss) behind, and has done so for years. There have been a lot of Ukrainian drone and Russian Gopro camera videos emerged in recent weeks showing former farm pigs consuming the abandoned remains of Russian troops. The most damning video in that regard shows a herd of wild pigs converging on a Ukrainian FPV drone loitering in 'ground ambush mode' for a passing Russian vehicle. That herd of wild pigs had learned that the sound of Ukrainian FPV drones means there are abandoned bodies of Russian troops to eat - which proves that the Russian practice of abandoning their wounded and dead has been persistent for years.

That Russian 1 KIA to 1.5 WIA casualty ratio mapped into 800,000 works out to the following:
RuAF KIA - 266,667
RuAF WIA - 533,333
1/10 Died of wounds - 53,333
RuAF Missing - 50,000**

Russian non-combat deaths are in addition to the 320,000 KIA plus 1/10 died of wounds. However, many of the "missing" are likely Russian soldiers who had 'non-combat deaths' like freezing to death or 'dying by misadventure' due to alcohol. Given Ukrainian pig behavior videos we are seeing./, it is likely that 4/5ths of the 50,000 missing in Russian MoD requests to Ukraine are deaths. IOW, Russia has taken at least 360,000 deaths from all causes since Feb 2022. The pavlovian trained Ukrainian piggies tell us what happened to a lot of those Russian's bodies.

 

[Niceguy2000]

Well, I have never seen a Russian medevac helicopter....
So, their version of MASH is roving pigs?

In Europe during the cold war, we were told the Soviets would not take prisoners...IF you survived the nerve gas.
We expected attacks from special forces...embedded in the local population or by "tourists".

I see that the North Korean casualties are now reportedly about 30%...with at least 300 to 1000 Kia (I see different numbers, the London Daily Telegraph attributes the high number to U.S. sources) out of 10,000 deployed.
The Wall Street Journal published a letter from a dead Korean...telling how they send a soldier out in the open to attract drones which he says (hopes) are shot down.
The story also states the Russians use the Koreans as bait...sending them en mass to Ukrainian positions, before Russian special forces attack.
Also, the NK troops are told they are going to Russia for training (and perhaps the chance to get a decent meal), no one mentions combat. They probably think it's a big adventure, their first airplane flight and all.
If these are accurate, one wonders how long N. Korea will stand for this. But of course there there is absolutely no media or criticism, so Kim may not really care his the trade deal with Russia is in his best interest.

I routinely check internet articles, the U.S. government typically downplays Russian losses, the Ukrainians give higher figures. The Russians quit talking about it after a couple of months.

Some European journalists are counting open source records...obits and funeral notices as well as counting new military graves throughout the country. They can positively ID 88,000 kia...and they, and the UK military, assume the real number is at least double that. So perhaps 200,000. But is that enough to deter Putin?

Their armor equipment must be getting low, luckily for them, they never seem to scrap old stuff. I wonder how long it will be before some of the good stuff Biden willingly abandoned in Afghanistan is used by the Russians.

I want to see the good guys win, but at the same time I'm leery about a tripping our military equipment and budget for an uncertain outcome.
The American military has a host of needs and you can bet that the liberals will want to tale every dollar given to Ukraine out of the Defense budget.

That would be dangerous, especially since we have threats in other parts of the world. At least the election of Trump will buy the west four years before Russia, Iran or China get adventurous.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

The German-language Stuttgarter Zeitung reported that the first six RCH 155 wheeled self-propelled howitzers (SPHs) have been handed over to the Ukrainian military at Rheinmetall’s plant in Kassel. The initial half-dozen vehicles will be employed to train Ukrainian military personnel on the German-made SPH. Berlin is providing fifty-four RCH 155 SPHs to Kyiv, with the timeline for delivery spread over 2025 and likely into 2026.

It is armed with a 155mm/L52 main gun, which is mounted to an 8x8 wheeled armored BOXER chassis. Unlike other self-propelled howitzers, which must stop to fire, the RCH 155 is capable of firing while on the move, enhancing its flexibility. The turret is remotely operated, resulting in a reduction in crew to just a commander and driver, yet it is still able to fire nine rounds per minute—providing “multiple round simultaneous impact” (MRSI) capability. The main gun, which is equipped with an autoloader, has a range of up to 40 km (25 miles) with base bleed (base burn) ordnance, and up to 54 km (33.5 miles) with Velocity Enhanced Long-Range Artillery Projectile (V-LAP) rounds. Even longer ranges are reported to be possible depending on the ammunition employed.

The RCH 155 can carry thirty primed projectiles or up to 144 modular charges. The main gun has an elevation that ranges from -2.5 to +65 degrees, which—unusual for an SPH—allows it to employ the main gun as a direct-fire weapon to engage other vehicles in its “hunter-killer” mode. It is powered by an MTU 8V199 TE21 engine that provides upwards of 816 hp (600 kW). It has an operational range of 700 km (400 miles) on the road and can reach a top speed of 103 km/h (60 mph). The vehicle’s turret is made of lightweight aluminum armor, which reduces its weight but still offers protection from small arms fire—up to 7.62mm calibers—as well as from artillery shell splinters. The front of the hull can also withstand fire from Russian 30x165mm armor-piercing rounds.

Basically, it's light, fast and a lot cheaper than a tracked and heavily armored SPG.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...witzers-are-getting-ready-roll-ukraine-214412

 

[ll74]

Interview with Boris Johnson - clears up the alleged negotiations that he supposedly tanked. Calls Putin a paper river

https://pca.st/episode/ac5a378b-5abc-4c3e-9892-66afb2c62808?t=2831

 

[ChloeTzang]

I like your optimism!
However, I'd be cautious about sourcing some numbers.

I checked today, the Russians have lost somewhere between 120-200,000 men killed. But as Germany found out in the last European war, you can't bleed Russia dry.

If nothing else, this war has exposed the Russians for their true selves.

Hopefully, Trump will be more aggressive in dealing with Putin...and with the remaining NATO members who are still lagging on defense...Croatia, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, Luxembourg and Canada. The last is no surprise, their entire combat air force is about the size of two USAF fighter wings.

While talking a lot, Biden has been too cautious in helping Ukraine, for example by not releasing surplus U.S. jets. I think he's afraid of angering Putin or more plausibly, afraid of alienating his party's left wing who for the last 50 years have been anti war to the point of being pro Soviet/Russian.

Of course Putin has done a service to the west, most NATO members have increased their defense budgets in light of his aggression.

There's a lot of differences here. Russia isn't the USSR. A huge swath of young males, particularly the educated and wealthy, took the chicken run as soon as the war started. The Russian military can mobilize around 30-35k men a month. They are losing 45k. There are huge labor shortages in Russia. Inflation has goa a real grip. Oil exports are ....getting nuked. Well, droned anyhow. Russia is up against a wall and there's no relief in sight.

The only thing in their favor is the Ukrainian military is not as organized as it should be and their senior officers are not that competent, unfortunately. Half the pre-war army, which WAS very professional, has gone and the mobilization, training and organization has not been managed that competently. I'll dig up some articles on that and repost them.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Strategic targeting vs. tactical gains. While some focus on contested territories, others aim for economic arteries. The dynamics of modern warfare: winning battles or dismantling economies? The latest Ukrainian air and sea campaign is absolutely devastating for Putin. While Russians are bleeding to death for tiny villages in the Donbas, Ukraine is targeting economic neurocenters of Russia's economy.

Especially the frequency of successful Ukrainian strikes is impressive. Basically, every night another Russian facility in the oil and gas industry goes up in flames. We have even indications that Russia is running out of fire fighting material. It is a crisis on steroids.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

We are in the future.....

 

[ChloeTzang]

The UK is providing Ukraine with 150 barrels for artillery guns. The articles doesn't get into much detail beyond these being manufactured in the UK, but this is fairly significant. With heavy use, and guns in Ukraine are being heavily used, artillery barrels wear out. When they wear out while in use, bad things happen. New barrels means guns can have the barrels replaced and stay in action.

Big win - one of the big issues for Russian artillery is they have challenges making new barrels and they're running out of guns. They've been stripping barrels of guns in storage to use them to replace barrels on guns in use. Losing proposition for the Russians.

https://nikvesti.com/en/news/help/300098-britain-ukraine-150-artillery-pieces-defense

 

[Niceguy2000]

Yes, their military infrastructure isn't what it used to be.
Most people do not appreciate the amount of industrial development it takes to produce armor, artillery and aircraft. Gun barrels are a great example. You just can't quickly build them. It takes a lot of machining. Even the ubiquitous Browning .50 cal machine gun (the one you see in all the old WWII films) needed replacement barrels...and they even produced heavy duty barrels for some applications.

But without real elections, a one sided media and weaponization of the law/courts (on the last two, I'll remind readers I'm referring to Russia and not the U.S. ), the chance for change there seems to be slight.

 

[icanhelp1]

In case anyone missed the obvious, Russian losses in 2024 were greater than 2022 and 2023 combined. It is worth noting that the Russian loss of ~429,660 personnel in 2024 is similar to British losses in the WW1 Somme campaign. There is one very important difference between the Somme and the 2022 to date Russo-Ukrainian War. The WW1 British lost ~1 KIA for every 4-5 WIA in the Somme. Most of the UK missing and 1 in 10 of the wounded were either dead, or died of wound infections, respectively.

While Russia's loss ratio in Ukraine & Kursk Oblast is of the order of 1:1 - 1.5 between KIA and WIA due to failed or non-existent field medicine or medevac (specifically 15,000 KIA out of 38,000 casualties in Kursk for a ratio of 1:1.5 KIA:WIA). Russia simply leaves its dead and its wounded (dying of blood loss) behind, and has done so for years. There have been a lot of Ukrainian drone and Russian Gopro camera videos emerged in recent weeks showing former farm pigs consuming the abandoned remains of Russian troops. The most damning video in that regard shows a herd of wild pigs converging on a Ukrainian FPV drone loitering in 'ground ambush mode' for a passing Russian vehicle. That herd of wild pigs had learned that the sound of Ukrainian FPV drones means there are abandoned bodies of Russian troops to eat - which proves that the Russian practice of abandoning their wounded and dead has been persistent for years.

That Russian 1 KIA to 1.5 WIA casualty ratio mapped into 800,000 works out to the following:
RuAF KIA - 266,667
RuAF WIA - 533,333
1/10 Died of wounds - 53,333
RuAF Missing - 50,000**

Russian non-combat deaths are in addition to the 320,000 KIA plus 1/10 died of wounds. However, many of the "missing" are likely Russian soldiers who had 'non-combat deaths' like freezing to death or 'dying by misadventure' due to alcohol. Given Ukrainian pig behavior videos we are seeing./, it is likely that 4/5ths of the 50,000 missing in Russian MoD requests to Ukraine are deaths. IOW, Russia has taken at least 360,000 deaths from all causes since Feb 2022. The pavlovian trained Ukrainian piggies tell us what happened to a lot of those Russian's bodies.

View attachment 2465435

I’m very interested in your detailed explanation of what’s going on in Ukraine. I read all of your updates and follow your day to day explanations and updates. I don’t have any idea where Trump is going with Ukraine support but I don’t see Trump abandoning Ukraine. The ace in the hole is Trump’s initiative to covet LNG markets supplying Europe with cheaper and plentiful supplies of natural gas burning into Russia’s oil markets. That could collapse the Russian economy, good bargaining tool Trump has at his fingertips to negotiate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. IMHO

I read Robbie’s narrative but I disagree with some of his points of view. Trump pushed the deal to establish Fort Trump in Poland and laid the foundation for sales of 35 F-35C models back in the 2018-2019 time frame. Of course that was before the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.

 

[ChloeTzang]

That 1500-1700 per day equates to 45-50k Russians taken out every month. Russian can mobilize and equip at best, 35k per month. And these are more or less completely untrained meat, thrown into the meat grinder to die. The average Russian soldier lasts a few days when they reach the frontlines. They're expendable and the only thing keeping Russia in this war are the unrelenting waves of meat being sent in to die, along with the Russian Air forces bombing of the frontlines.....and drones.

 

[ChloeTzang]

It's been three years of the world's largest war of aggression. What on earth has the Biden Administration been waiting for?

For Russia to recover, adapt to sanctions, find allies, and restructure its economy to exterminate Ukraine at any price?

This should have been done on Day One. Total incompetence. Thank god we have Trump in change now.

 

[Lazaran]

It's been three years of the world's largest war of aggression. What on earth has the Biden Administration been waiting for?

For Russia to recover, adapt to sanctions, find allies, and restructure its economy to exterminate Ukraine at any price?

This should have been done on Day One. Total incompetence. Thank god we have Trump in change now.

View attachment 2470403

Chloe “Chicongo” Tzang is an ignorant imbecile.



President Biden managed the sanctions magnificently, disrupting Russia, while simultaneously strengthening the U.S. economy.

There was a time during President Biden’s administration when a complete shut down of Russian oil exports would have tanked the world economy, but that time has now passed thanks to President Biden’s brilliant foreign policy maneuvers and NEW agreements with key allies and trading partners.

THANKS PRESIDENT BIDEN!!!





President Biden is handing a weakened Russia on a platter to President Musk (and DonOld), but I’m sure they will FAIL to deliver the coup de grace. More likely, President Musk (and DonOld) will appease Putin and Russia at EVERY opportunity.

 

[ChloeTzang]

President Biden managed the sanctions magnificently, disrupting Russia, while simultaneously strengthening the U.S. economy.

There was a time during President Biden’s administration when a complete shut down of Russian oil exports would have tanked the world economy, but that time has now passed thanks to President Biden’s brilliant foreign policy maneuvers and NEW agreements with key allies and trading partners.

President Biden is handing a weakened Russia on a platter to President Musk (and DonOld), but I’m sure they will FAIL to deliver the coup de grace. More likely, President Musk (and DonOld) will appease Putin and Russia at EVERY opportunity.

A little reading goes a long way, Laz. And personal insults are so pointless, don't you think? On a subject like Ukraine, which really should be bipartisan, because this is one of those "US interests" as opposed to a partisan political issue, we really should be more collegial in our debate. Sadly, Biden injected partisan politics into what should really be a debate on clear-cut American interests. I have faith that, now that Trump is President, we will see a rather more balanced approach to supporting Ukraine, and it IS in our interests that Ukraine achieves a clear-cut victory here, and that Russia is defeated. That's realpolitik and one cannot deny that US interests are at stake here.

Now, the past is the past. The Biden Administration reluctantly supported Ukraine, but it's never been more than half-assed support, with military assistance generally being too little and too late. Something Ukraine itself has stated, which they can now afford to do. Biden has been as much hindrance as help and as for "brilliant foreign policy maneuvers," it's pretty much acknowledged than man has no idea what's going on and just parrots (badly) whatever is on the teleprompter. What's passed for US foreign policy over the last 4 years is just....a shit show, and it's people like Boris, Scholz, Macron, and other European politicians who have taken the lead on this, more or less dragging the US along with them.

That's no bad thing, mind you. The EU should be taking a more leading role here and that's something Trump iterated a number of times between 2016-2020.

Anyhow, there's a new President now, and we all know Trump will deliver.

 

[Lazaran]

A little reading goes a long way, Laz. And personal insults are so pointless, don't you think? On a subject like Ukraine, which really should be bipartisan, because this is one of those "US interests" as opposed to a partisan political issue, we really should be more collegial in our debate. Sadly, Biden injected partisan politics into what should really be a debate on clear-cut American interests. I have faith that, now that Trump is President, we will see a rather more balanced approach to supporting Ukraine, and it IS in our interests that Ukraine achieves a clear-cut victory here, and that Russia is defeated. That's realpolitik and one cannot deny that US interests are at stake here.

Now, the past is the past. The Biden Administration reluctantly supported Ukraine, but it's never been more than half-assed support, with military assistance generally being too little and too late. Something Ukraine itself has stated, which they can now afford to do. Biden has been as much hindrance as help and as for "brilliant foreign policy maneuvers," it's pretty much acknowledged than man has no idea what's going on and just parrots (badly) whatever is on the teleprompter. What's passed for US foreign policy over the last 4 years is just....a shit show, and it's people like Boris, Scholz, Macron, and other European politicians who have taken the lead on this, more or less dragging the US along with them.

That's no bad thing, mind you. The EU should be taking a more leading role here and that's something Trump iterated a number of times between 2016-2020.

Anyhow, there's a new President now, and we all know Trump will deliver.

Chloe “Chicongo “ Tzang won’t have to wai for karma to mete out a deservedly horrific end , Chloe “Chicongo “ Tzang’s stupidity will undoubtedly see to that…

Either way, it can’t happen soon enough.

America is weakened a little more every day that a MAGAt steals oxygen and lowers the national IQ.

No joke…



Chloe “Chicongo” Tzang

 

[ChloeTzang]

Chloe “Chicongo “ Tzang won’t have to wai for karma to mete out a deservedly horrific end , Chloe “Chicongo “ Tzang’s stupidity will undoubtedly see to that…

Either way, it can’t happen soon enough.

America is weakened a little more every day that a MAGAt steals oxygen and lowers the national IQ.

LOL. You're not going to change, are you, Laz? Ah well, you support Ukraine so I'm sure your heart is in the right place, even if you come across as a little, you know, "special," at times. I shall be nice, tho, and simply do the Christian thing, and turn the other cheek, because I kind of like you....you remind me of one of my granddad's in a bad mood - you need a little pampering and attention and a nice hot coffee and some homemade chocolate cake to cheer you up

...and if it helps you feel a little better, feel free to continue to dig at me. I like to think I have helped someone in need.