http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/how-donald-trump-becomes-president_us_56cb5429e4b0928f5a6c9ead
"If he succeeds in the Rust Belt, look out."
"Don't laugh. Donald Trump could actually win this thing. Not just the Republican nomination -- the presidency.
It would be very nice if a brand of politics built on fear, intimidation, racism and sheer meanness could not succeed in 21st-century America. Most political pundits have spent the past year wishing it to be so, refusing to contemplate the horror of a Trump presidency. And the business mogul may very well end up getting trounced in the general election if he does secure the GOP nomination.
But Trump has a perfectly plausible path to the presidency as a Republican. If he makes it to the White House, he'll get there by taking the Upper Midwest back from the Democratic Party.
When President Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012, he ran up the score in the Electoral College, winning 25 states, good for 332 total electoral votes. His victory was thorough. He only needed 270 electoral votes to win, and President George W. Bush had taken just 286 in his 2004 re-election.
To secure the presidency, Democrats only have to win the Northeast, the West Coast, and the Upper Midwest, including Iowa. Obama did far better, carrying every swing state in the country, including Florida and Virginia in the South, and Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada in the West.
But even with that massive margin, Obama could have been undone by victories for Republican rival Mitt Romney in just four states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Together, those four Rust Belt states account for 64 electoral votes. Even if Floridians, Iowans, Coloradans and all of the other swing states had gone to Obama, his failure to capture the Upper Midwest would have been enough to hand the White House over to Romney.
Beyond demographics, Obama was able to capitalize on his rescue of the auto industry, a major issue in the 2012 race, as well as his opponent's weakness: The Bain Capital 47-percenter made the worst possible candidate for that region.
Trump is no Romney. He is running an unsubtle, racist campaign that has particularly targeted Latinos. His chances of winning swing states with significant Latino populations -- Florida, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico -- are extremely low.
But he doesn't need them to win. All he has to do is carry the Rust Belt -- a region perfectly attuned to Trump's fiery denunciations of American trade policy and his angry condemnation of Washington corruption. While Romney hailed free trade, globalization and "creative destruction," Trump rails against the North American Free Trade Agreement and promises to bring jobs back home.
Who signed NAFTA into law? That would be former President Bill Clinton. Hillary Clinton can't be held responsible for everything her husband did in office. But don't think you won't hear it on repeat this fall anyway.
Hillary Clinton's inconsistency on trade has, thus far, only proven to be a liability for her among progressives. Republican leaders have broadly supported the trade policies that began under her husband -- NAFTA, the creation of the World Trade Organization and the establishment of permanent normal trade relations with China. If Trump wins the GOP nomination, he will be the first Republican in decades to challenge a Democratic candidate on trade."
Apparently it's dawning on people that Trump could actually become president.
"If he succeeds in the Rust Belt, look out."
"Don't laugh. Donald Trump could actually win this thing. Not just the Republican nomination -- the presidency.
It would be very nice if a brand of politics built on fear, intimidation, racism and sheer meanness could not succeed in 21st-century America. Most political pundits have spent the past year wishing it to be so, refusing to contemplate the horror of a Trump presidency. And the business mogul may very well end up getting trounced in the general election if he does secure the GOP nomination.
But Trump has a perfectly plausible path to the presidency as a Republican. If he makes it to the White House, he'll get there by taking the Upper Midwest back from the Democratic Party.
When President Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012, he ran up the score in the Electoral College, winning 25 states, good for 332 total electoral votes. His victory was thorough. He only needed 270 electoral votes to win, and President George W. Bush had taken just 286 in his 2004 re-election.
To secure the presidency, Democrats only have to win the Northeast, the West Coast, and the Upper Midwest, including Iowa. Obama did far better, carrying every swing state in the country, including Florida and Virginia in the South, and Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada in the West.
But even with that massive margin, Obama could have been undone by victories for Republican rival Mitt Romney in just four states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Together, those four Rust Belt states account for 64 electoral votes. Even if Floridians, Iowans, Coloradans and all of the other swing states had gone to Obama, his failure to capture the Upper Midwest would have been enough to hand the White House over to Romney.
Beyond demographics, Obama was able to capitalize on his rescue of the auto industry, a major issue in the 2012 race, as well as his opponent's weakness: The Bain Capital 47-percenter made the worst possible candidate for that region.
Trump is no Romney. He is running an unsubtle, racist campaign that has particularly targeted Latinos. His chances of winning swing states with significant Latino populations -- Florida, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico -- are extremely low.
But he doesn't need them to win. All he has to do is carry the Rust Belt -- a region perfectly attuned to Trump's fiery denunciations of American trade policy and his angry condemnation of Washington corruption. While Romney hailed free trade, globalization and "creative destruction," Trump rails against the North American Free Trade Agreement and promises to bring jobs back home.
Who signed NAFTA into law? That would be former President Bill Clinton. Hillary Clinton can't be held responsible for everything her husband did in office. But don't think you won't hear it on repeat this fall anyway.
Hillary Clinton's inconsistency on trade has, thus far, only proven to be a liability for her among progressives. Republican leaders have broadly supported the trade policies that began under her husband -- NAFTA, the creation of the World Trade Organization and the establishment of permanent normal trade relations with China. If Trump wins the GOP nomination, he will be the first Republican in decades to challenge a Democratic candidate on trade."
Apparently it's dawning on people that Trump could actually become president.
