Ominous prediction indeed.

Ishmael said:

I heard (unverified yet) that 28 of the democrat senators that voted for "ShuckNJiveCare" are gone from the senate. True, they all weren't replaced by republicans, but one way or another they're gone. And Mary will make it 29.

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Over 60% still want nothing to do with "ShuckNJiveCare."

61% of those polled are against the Net Neutrality bull shit.

75+% want nothing to do with the proposed amnesty.

Over 60% are in favor of the pipeline.

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I predict an even greater % think that the announced treaty with China is a serious case of mental masturbation.

Ishmael

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PayDay said:

Same. Even my local election results aren't certified yet.



I have zero faith in these numbers, just my opinion. The validity of public polling has always bothered me. see post #790.



Noted.

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Ishmael said:

The veracity is certainly subject to question depending on the way in which the questions are asked and the polls methodology.

However the numbers I cited are a concatenation of multiple polls which asked the question(s) in basically the same format and used the same methodology. These are cases where the poll(s) tend to have greater validity.

Ishmael

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PayDay said:

The idea of accurately polling a population based on a segment using a poll of exceptional validity is still just an estimate/guestimate.

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PayDay said:

I had to look that one up.

I understand what you're saying, but those are just part of what gets me.

The idea of accurately polling a population based on a segment using a poll of exceptional validity is still just an estimate/guestimate.

This is why I think everyone who can legally vote should vote legally.

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Ishmael said:

Actually the science behind the polls is well understood and generally the polls are fairly accurate. The problem is figuring out exactly what those polls are actually telling you. And that's all tied up in the question(s) and how they're asked.

Using the first example in my previous post, what did that poll tell you that was of any value for the purposes of formulating policy? Not a damn thing, the poll was worthless and designed for the sole purpose of generating propaganda.

When it comes to national elections go to the Iowa Electronic Markets. They've never missed.

Ishmael

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Three people charged with killing at least two women, eating parts of their bodies and using their flesh to make and sell stuffed pastries went on trial Thursday in northeastern Brazil.

The man, his wife and his mistress were arrested in April 2012 in the city of Garanhuns and police say they have confessed to the crimes.

The three allegedly lured women to their house by promising them a job as a nanny.

Police found the remains of the two women in the backyard of the suspects' house.

At the time of their arrest they told police they belonged to a sect that preached "the purification of the world and the reduction of its population."

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PayDay said:

To go with Post #283: 'Cannibals are trying to eat you'
http://forum.literotica.com/showpost.php?p=62220451&postcount=283

Have a dose of this:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/cannibalism-trial-begins-brazil-trio-article-1.2010422

Three people charged with killing at least two women, eating parts of their bodies and using their flesh to make and sell stuffed pastries went on trial Thursday in northeastern Brazil.

The man, his wife and his mistress were arrested in April 2012 in the city of Garanhuns and police say they have confessed to the crimes.

The three allegedly lured women to their house by promising them a job as a nanny.

Police found the remains of the two women in the backyard of the suspects' house.

At the time of their arrest they told police they belonged to a sect that preached "the purification of the world and the reduction of its population."

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A former New York Police Department officer convicted of planning to kidnap and rape women before killing and eating them is set to go free after a federal judge overturned his conviction.

According to Reuters, the so-called “Cannibal Cop” Gilberto Valle was acquitted by US District Judge Paul Gardephe on Monday. Valle has been in prison since he was arrested in 2012, and potentially faced life behind bars on kidnapping conspiracy charges.

In his opinion, Judge Gardephe stated that the evidence used to originally convict Valle did not sufficiently prove that the former officer acted on what his attorneys said were sexual, cannibalistic fantasies involving women he never met, as well as his wife.

“The evidentiary record is such that it is more likely than not the case that all of Valle’s Internet communications about kidnapping are fantasy role-play,”*the judge wrote.

Gardephe did uphold Valle’s conviction on a less serious charge, which alleged that he used the NYPD’s federal database to collect information on various women he intended to target. That conviction carried a sentence of up to one year in prison, but since Valle has been in jail since 2012, he can be set free as early as Tuesday.

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vetteman said:

Having little faith in the motivation for polling or the manipulation of polling questions. I have to say, the polls I followed during this last election pretty much called the results.

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vetteman said:

I see a big headline on Drudge under a picture of Biden saying "Impeachment insurance policy." Reading the Constitution one can see that it provides for the removal of both the President and the Vice President.

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Hard_Rom said:

Immigration. Huge numbers of unskilled labor will end up being welfare dependents. We have enough native unskilled labor, importing more is folly.

I disagree.

You need growth, population growth, in a capitalist system. In the heyday of American expansion it had a birth rate that sub-Saharan Africa can not touch. Not any more. The expense of baby boomer retirements and aging will cripple the next generation or two.

Even an immigrant janitor, buys food, clothes, uses transportation, needs housing, schools. All this stimulates growth.

Illegals and some refugees may be unskilled but the usual immigrant must meet standards. A freer policy on middle class skilled immigrants, of whatever colour or ethnicity, would make it easier, or more palatable, to crack down on illegals.

The doors should be virtually thrown open to middle class skilled labour.

There is a difference between an illegal immigrant, a refugee and legal immigrants.

If there was another European war that created huge amounts of white refugees, our governments, Can. and US., would be trampling on one another to take them in. It would be like winning a lottery. At millions of others expense.

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vetteman said:

I see a big headline on Drudge under a picture of Biden saying "Impeachment insurance policy." Reading the Constitution one can see that it provides for the removal of both the President and the Vice President.

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PayDay said:

Mastery of the In-house Ominous Prediction: Don't try:
'Stupid is a mean word."

Do you have the stupid disease?
...well maybe...

1st: 'Algae has bloomed on the boards'
http://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?t=1107747

Then:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...ion-makes-nearly-HALF-stupid-lasts-YEARS.html

Found: The viral infection that makes nearly HALF of us more stupid (and it lasts for YEARS)

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/s...es-humans-more-stupid-discovered-9849920.html

Virus that 'makes humans more stupid' discovered

A virus that infects human brains and makes us more stupid has been discovered, according to scientists in the US.

The algae virus, never before observed in healthy people, was found to affect cognitive functions including visual processing and spatial awareness.*

Scientists at Johns Hopkins Medical School and the University of Nebraska stumbled upon the discovery when they were undertaking an unrelated study into throat microbes.

Surprisingly, the researchers found DNA in the throats of healthy individuals that matched the DNA of a virus known to infect green algae.

Dr Robert Yolken, a virologist who led the original study, said: “This is a striking example showing that the ‘innocuous’ microorganisms we carry can affect behaviour and cognition.
...
Of the 90 participants in the study, 40 tested positive for the algae virus. Those who tested positive performed worse on tests designed to measure the speed and accuracy of visual processing. They also achieved lower scores in tasks designed to measure attention.

Humans’ bodies contain trillions of bacteria, viruses and fungi. Most are harmless, but the findings of this research show that there some microbes can have a detrimental impact on cognitive functions, while leaving individuals healthy.

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Pond Scum Facepalm.

Also: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States:
http://www.pnas.org/
(the report mentioned is not yet available or I couldn't find it)

*bonus: 'Algae: Better Than Ethanol'
http://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?t=695901

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PayDay said:

For the last post:

PayDay said:

Pond Scum Facepalm.

Also: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States:
http://www.pnas.org/
(the report mentioned is not yet available or I couldn't find it)

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Found it
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2...ract?sid=ac65f577-a217-40e7-b768-8e6080a0666f

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"It remains unclear if the virus was truly driving the drop in mental functioning. Researchers have not yet shown the cause and effect between the virus and the intelligence results.

"At this point we do not think that this virus should be considered as a threat to individual or public health," said lead researcher Robert Yolken, a virologist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland.

"We do think that there is a need for additional medical and scientific studies of the effects of infectious agents which are common in the environment on human health and cognition," Yolken told AFP.

The virus was found by accident while scientists were analyzing microbes in the throats of healthy humans for a different study."

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vetteman said:

Biden and Obama have conspired to defraud the American people, and have lied to the American people incessantly, Obama has broken the law, undermined the Constitution, refused to enforce the law, and has violated his oath, all supported by his co-conspirator Joe Biden.

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vetteman said:

Both could be impeached and removed from office by Congress under the Article II Section 4, there would be no appeal. The Speaker of the House would then assume the Presidency.

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BobDownSouth said:

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PayDay said:

Conspiracy theory used to hide conspiracy:
http://www.theprepperjournal.com/2014/05/23/conspiracy-theory-replace-critical-thinking/

Do you believe in Conspiracy Theories? When you read that question I imagine that you had one of two distinct reactions. One reaction could have been positive as in ‘Sure I believe in conspiracies or some of them anyway’. The opposite reaction and judging from a lot of news outlets would be negative or something along the lines of ‘only lunatics believe in conspiracy theories’. For years I have wondered why conspiracies were something that “smart” people simply couldn’t believe at best. At worst, some reacted almost violently to the suggestion that anything secret could have happened. Furthermore, anyone who was dumb enough to believe in conspiracies was mocked, laughed at and generally discounted. An opinion or belief that ran counter to what the enlightened believed, was the height of stupidity.

Where did this come from and when did it become “stupid” to investigate? When did we all decide it was crazy to question the official story when the facts didn’t make sense? In order to find out what the problem with conspiracy theories is, I decided to look up the definition of conspiracy just to set a level playing field.*

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http://www.peaceandfreedom.org/home/articles/general/468-conspiracy-behind-conspiracy-theories

Conspiracy behind Conspiracy Theories?

A 'conspiracy' is a bad thing. It can be, depending on who is actually involved, seditious, evil, treasonous, fraudulent and, perhaps least of all, illegal. It implies a well-coordinated plot to manipulate circumstances for the betterment of an elite few while victimizing the innocent. Some conspiracies are small scale. Like the owner of a cockroach infested restaurant bribing a health inspector to look the other way. Some actual conspiracies are much grander.

Surely, some Conspiracy Theories are eventually proven to be actual conspiracies. No one leading a conspiracy wants to be found out. Likewise, no one (me!) wants to claim a conspiracy is false and eventually be proven foolishly incorrect.*

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http://www.libertymagazine.org/article/the-hidden-danger-of-conspiracy-theories

A problem with*conspiracy theories*is that they oversimplify world events in order to find a scapegoat. In any reasonably open society, with freedom of the press and access to historical documents, it is not hard to find out the truth, or at least enough of the facts to clear up any false theory. In the world of conspiracy theories, conjecture takes the place of diligence and fear takes the place of reason. Often a particular clique of evil people is given virtual omnipotence, as if when major events, such as world wars, take place, everything happens according to plan.*

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"Oh that's just a conspiracy..."

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BobDownSouth said:

Typical conservative wet dream. "We're gonna impeach and impeach and impeach until we get us a white conservative male in the White House, as the Founding Fathers intended!"

#VettemanHatesAmerica

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PayDay said:

Ishmael said:

Actually the science behind the polls is well understood and generally the polls are fairly accurate. The problem is figuring out exactly what those polls are actually telling you. And that's all tied up in the question(s) and how they're asked.

Using the first example in my previous post, what did that poll tell you that was of any value for the purposes of formulating policy? Not a damn thing, the poll was worthless and designed for the sole purpose of generating propaganda.

When it comes to national elections go to the Iowa Electronic Markets. They've never missed.

Ishmael

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I agree with the first bold.

The second bold is how I feel about all polling. If a poll was made in NY, how can it apply to Kentucky, etc.

"How dumb you depends on where exactly you are standing."

I tend to throw all polling data right out the window.

Now if I saw a poll that surveyed 250million Americans, I might not question the validity so much as it's from a statistical majority (similar to Census data), but that still requires too much trust in accuracy on my part. Maybe they surveyed an illegal immigrant? How do I know what is and isn't fact?

As in: Opinion is not Action, or saying you are the Pope doesn't make you the Pope.

I much prefer the validity of opinion in this thread (and others) to the validity of public polling for opinion.

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“The law’s new low in approval — and new high in disapproval (56%) — could potentially have an impact on its future,” the pollster notes, but adds that repeal is still unlikely.

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PayDay said:

For Ishmael to go with Post #806: Another modifying variable:


http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/poll-obamacare-approval-112948.html


...anything can manipulate the results.

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Ishmael said:

It's all in the questions asked and how they're asked. And then how they're reported.

If you go to Gallup the real news isn't the disapproval rating (56%) that Politico reported, it's the meager 37% approval rating that Politico didn't bother to report.

Ishmael

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vetteman said:

Biden and Obama have conspired to defraud the American people, and have lied to the American people incessantly, Obama has broken the law, undermined the Constitution, refused to enforce the law, and has violated his oath, all supported by his co-conspirator Joe Biden.

Both could be impeached and removed from office by Congress under the Article II Section 4, there would be no appeal. The Speaker of the House would then assume the Presidency.

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Sean Renaud said:

Like I said purely partisan bullshit. There was no conspiracy to defaud the American people, they haven't lied any more than is expected of politicians nor broken the law any more than is expected by a president nor undermined the Constitution or refused to enforce the law or violated his oath anymore than is strictly expected of a US president.

You could impeach Obama for anything you want it doesn't mean it won't be partisan bullshit.

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vetteman said:

Biden and Obama have conspired to defraud the American people, and have lied to the American people incessantly, Obama has broken the law, undermined the Constitution, refused to enforce the law, and has violated his oath, all supported by his co-conspirator Joe Biden.

Both could be impeached and removed from office by Congress under the Article II Section 4, there would be no appeal. The Speaker of the House would then assume the Presidency.

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