Russia’s failures in Ukraine imbue Pentagon with newfound confidence

[icanhelp1]

Harpoon's require infrastructure and highly technical support, none of which the Ukrainians have. It also appears that the Ukrainians are doing quite well with the drones etc. forcing the Russians to keep their ships at stand-off distance. The Russians already have a well established beach head (and always did) via the Crimean peninsula. Because of that presence I've discounted anti-naval operations as being terribly significant.

Had they been deployed as shore batteries back in october of last year I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians could overcome the technical aspect with a little training. If they can handle 300s and 400s they can handle the older versions of harpoons. Having them in place could have stopped all that equipment from making land in the first place. Like any complex piece of equipment where you you deploy it and how you deploy it requires a strategic evaluation of its combat relevancy and can it be a force multiplier. Just the threat of its existence would cause Russian ships to park outside the missile's operational range. Lot's of combat vehicles would have been denied access to black sea ports. I'm not sure what drones you speak of but the last update I saw those Russian ships are lobbing rounds

The Ukrainians being able to sink that supply ship is much more significant than launching Harpoons against warships. The Russians have to bring those supply ships to docks in order to supply their troops. The Ukrainians are, quite successfully, attacking the Russian logistic trains. All the strategy in the world is worthless if your troops don't have beans and bullets.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03...ato-could-send-anti-ship-missiles-to-ukraine/

Had they been deployed as shore batteries back in october of last year I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians could overcome the technical aspect with a little training. If they can handle 300s and 400s they can handle the older versions of harpoons. Having them in place could have stopped all that equipment from making land in the first place. Like any complex piece of equipment where you you deploy it and how you deploy it requires a strategic evaluation of its combat relevancy and can it be a force multiplier. Just the threat of its existence would cause Russian ships to park outside the missile's operational range. Lot's of combat vehicles would have been denied access to black sea ports.

The Ukrainians being able to sink that supply ship is much more significant than launching Harpoons against warships. The Russians have to bring those supply ships to docks in order to supply their troops. The Ukrainians are, quite successfully, attacking the Russian logistic trains. All the strategy in the world is worthless if your troops don't have beans and bullets.

Ukrainian military sinking that Russian transport ship at the dock in the port of Berdyansk is on the sea of Azov. Quite a blow to Russian invasion plans in a Russian controlled area, certainly puts a damper on Russian plans to continue its use. My point is putting land based Harpoons on the shore of the Black sea stopping Russian naval guns from bombarding coastal cities, keeping Russian ships out of range, is currently being considered. Should have done it back in October.

They are doing a good job at attacking Russian supply line and keeping their lines open.

 

[LupusDei]

Tanks are easy targets in war now. Russia could have saved some fuel by parking their junk in their own junkyards.

Tanks still have their initial function of close fire support for the infantry. Troop mobile artillery systems (like Karl Gustav recoil less rifle) still can't fully fill the role fully, and the mobile protected HMG is indispensable.

Plus, there's still the issue of tactical and strategic mobility. Thus, the APC remains on the battlefield however you slice it. IMV evolves in direction of it, rather than than the other way around. Then of course, there's SPG and mortar carriers. MBT may or not dissolve somewhere between those.

Like, there's whole renaissance of 30-50mm long barrel guns, proven sufficient to take out most armored vehicles (there's video of Azov BMP4 blowing up a T72 pattern tank with few well placed shots from it's 30mm robotic turret while navigating streets at speed). Or on the other end, MBT and SPG may merge at 155mm in some oversized behemoths dependent on active protection systems rather than hundreds of tons of armor.

But the traditional MBT may well live well and long when it's properly supported by infantry and/or other systems. You just don't rush them forward alone, that's now almost invariably deadly, but exactly what Russians insist on doing as per their outdated doctrine. And, I would repeat myself, installing active protection may seem costly, but well within envelope of ATGM in price, and Israeli experience is encouraging. That those are vulnerable to small arms fire in most current embodiments is another story though... but so is advanced optics and scores of other stuff.

Tanks are very fragile nowadays, but doesn't mean they are useless as weapon platforms.

 

[LupusDei]

The pro-Russian pockets of opinions that are starting to pop up world-wide, EE included AREN'T due to Russian propaganda..
They are a counter-reaction to the low IQ propagandistic crap that the Anglo corporate massmedia is feeding us.

Semantic mapping of influence says otherwise, it's indeed a coordinated large scale Russian propaganda effort. Ukrainians won the western media space so aggressively and decisively Russians pretty much gave up at some point, but deployed/activated their resources everywhere else. Including, strutting up both Indian and Pakistanis nazi just to increase visibility of their own injected stuff.

The media prowess of what is still very much a comedian production team taken over a country shouldn't have been a surprise, but somehow it was for Russians in their infinite arrogance.

Ukraine isn't the baby-faced altruistic person that massmedia led us into believing.

Should it be reiterated that Zelensky is a jew, the perhaps second most visible leader, the Nikolayev mayor Kim is Korean, there's way more mosques in Kyiv than Moscow and part of the Kremlin's hatred is for Ukraine not only becoming safe haven for Russian speaking free press but also home for multiple ethnic centers serving others of the "great prison of nations" how Russia is known, including once again repressed Crimean Tatars.

You're berating a girl for a speck on her white blouse while a rapist is straggling her. Regurgitating his mostly invented excuses for the violence. The dynamic between Russia and Ukraine is very much that of a vindictive abusive ex and his victim.

But it's not just Putin.
We created this wishful thinking story that somehow Putin is keeping everybody around himself captive, and if only someone would assassinate him...

It is not just Putin, of course. You know what his main voter base is? Its poor elderly women. Russia is fascism of ignorant babushkas zombified in hate by overdose of splashy TV talk shows. That's why the sanctions will have minimal effect on the social approval of Putin, at least short term. (Those are still absolutely necessary, and will help eventually.)

 

[icanhelp1]

Tanks are easy targets in war now. Russia could have saved some fuel by parking their junk in their

Tanks still have their initial function of close fire support for the infantry. Troop mobile artillery systems (like Karl Gustav recoil less rifle) still can't fully fill the role fully, and the mobile protected HMG is indispensable.

Plus, there's still the issue of tactical and strategic mobility. Thus, the APC remains on the battlefield however you slice it. IMV evolves in direction of it, rather than than the other way around. Then of course, there's SPG and mortar carriers. MBT may or not dissolve somewhere between those.

Like, there's whole renaissance of 30-50mm long barrel guns, proven sufficient to take out most armored vehicles (there's video of Azov BMP4 blowing up a T72 pattern tank with few well placed shots from it's 30mm robotic turret while navigating streets at speed). Or on the other end, MBT and SPG may merge at 155mm in some oversized behemoths dependent on active protection systems rather than hundreds of tons of armor.

But the traditional MBT may well live well and long when it's properly supported by infantry and/or other systems. You just don't rush them forward alone, that's now almost invariably deadly, but exactly what Russians insist on doing as per their outdated doctrine. And, I would repeat myself, installing active protection may seem costly, but well within envelope of ATGM in price, and Israeli experience is encouraging. That those are vulnerable to small arms fire in most current embodiments is another story though... but so is advanced optics and scores of other stuff.

Tanks are very fragile nowadays, but doesn't mean they are useless as weapon platforms.

He doesn't understand how a maneuver brigade or battalion employs armor. A maneuver brigade is multi-layered, it has air assets as well as motorized infantry assets and artillery. Most US *enhanced maneuver brigades* are networks to each other where a commander can fight a part of his brigade with units specific to the threat and terrain. Tanks, M2s, Strykers, 64s and 60s are all interconnected where commanders can communicate within the whole brigade as well as with supporting assets such as air and naval. With today's technology Commanders can see the whole battle space. In today's modern battlefield armored units using defilade as a tactic is usually a losing strategy.

 

[mayfly13]

1. Semantic mapping of influence says otherwise, it's indeed a coordinated large scale Russian propaganda effort. Including, strutting up both Indian and Pakistanis nazi just to increase visibility of their own injected stuff.

1. Yes, you're right, actually. They've literally woken up sleeper cells.

For example, I used to think that Chris Hedges and Ross Ashcroft (who have their own channels on Russia Today) were merely people fed up with Western croneys just like we all are. But the way both are now justfying Russia's war, made me realize that they weere double agents paid by Russia. Chris Hedges!!!!!!!!!!
Now I'm starting to ask myself whether Snowden was on Russia's payroll all along, and he fooled idealists like Gunewald and that uk lawyer Poitras.

What do you mean by "both Indian and Pakistanis nazi just to increase visibility of their own injected stuff." ?

Should it be reiterated that Zelensky is a jew, the perhaps second most visible leader, the Nikolayev mayor Kim is Korean, there's way more mosques in Kyiv than Moscow and part of the Kremlin's hatred is for Ukraine not only becoming safe haven for Russian speaking free press but also home for multiple ethnic centers serving others of the "great prison of nations" how Russia is known, including once again repressed Crimean Tatars.

2. Wtf.
This is nuts.
Are you wilfully ignoring how Ukrainians have stopped Russian, Hungarian, Romanian, Moldovan and Bulgarian minorities from using their language since 2017.
And the latest law that is trying to claim they are not indigenous, only Ukrainians and Tatars are.

You're berating a girl for a speck on her white blouse while a rapist is straggling her. Regurgitating his mostly invented excuses for the violence. The dynamic between Russia and Ukraine is very much that of a vindictive abusive ex and his victim.

3. Here I COMPLETELY disagree with your attitide..

While your analogy with the abuser --domestic abuse victim is correct,'
I feel that your emotional attitude is dangerous
even if it's coming from the right place: empathy and caring for the victim.
That's how extreme radical movements -- even leading to a mirror genocide -- get created: by idealizing the victim (which implicit means demonising the attacker).

As for myself and others: we Need to be given a more realistic view of both parties, even if it means bashing some Ukrainians.
That won't make us change alliances at all, on the contrary.

This incompetent idealization of everything Ukrainian/demonizing everything Russian, that the Press is doing, will only incrwase our distrust of further info coming from the mainstream Western press.

 

[pecksniff]

1. Yes, you're right, actually. They've literally woken up sleeper cells.

For example, I used to think that Chris Hedges and Ross Ashcroft (who have their own channels on Russia Today) were merely people fed up with Western croneys just like we all are. But the way both are now justfying Russia's war, made me realize that they weere double agents paid by Russia. Chris Hedges!!!!!!!!!!

What else, if they were on Russia Today? It's state TV, isn't it?

 

[mayfly13]

What else, if they were on Russia Today? It's state TV, isn't it?

but it's Chris Hedges!!!
He always advocated for the little American guy, and uncovered abuse by corporations &.

 

[Rightguide]

The only "winner" in this war is the Javelin missle system, which has been proven to effectively destroy the motorized capability of the enemy. 100 our of 112 missles fired by the Ukranians destroyed their intended targets (tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters). at roughly $230,000 per missle, they are a relatively inexpensive weapon of targeted destruction. Their introduction to the battlefield has basically signalled the end of tank warfare.

Let's hope the Russians don't capture one of them.

 

[pecksniff]

Let's hope the Russians don't capture one of them.

No military secret lasts much longer than its use in the field.

 

[Rightguide]

No military secret lasts much longer than its use in the field.

That isn't always so.

 

[LupusDei]

Let's hope the Russians don't capture one of them.

They have captured at least two launchers and a dozen missiles. About two dozen NLAWs too. Enough to demonstrate practice fires in self training by printed out instructions. And even a couple of Panzefaust 3 among other zoo of various rockets and stuff that change hands in intense close quarters skirmishes. Such incidents happened both in the east where portions of the fortifications line were overrun and in Kyiv suburbs including a whole regimental warehouse as late as in the third week or so.

In exchange we already have examples of almost the entire zoo of their newest EW and comms systems among other interesting or just bizarre things of all ages. It seems nobody been trained to destroy abandoned stuff on retreat.

Frankly I don't think they're be able to reverse engender anything anytime soon. They may forward to Chinese, but I would be surprised if it would be much novelty for them, actually.

 

[icanhelp1]

They have captured at least two launchers and a dozen missiles. About two dozen NLAWs too. Enough to demonstrate practice fires in self training by printed out instructions. And even a couple of Panzefaust 3 among other zoo of various rockets and stuff that change hands in intense close quarters skirmishes. Such incidents happened both in the east where portions of the fortifications line were overrun and in Kyiv suburbs including a whole regimental warehouse as late as in the third week or so.

In exchange we already have examples of almost the entire zoo of their newest EW and comms systems among other interesting or just bizarre things of all ages. It seems nobody been trained to destroy abandoned stuff on retreat.

Frankly I don't think they're be able to reverse engender anything anytime soon. They may forward to Chinese, but I would be surprised if it would be much novelty for them, actually.

Where do you get your info?

What was found in the regimental warehouse?

 

[pecksniff]

They have captured at least two launchers and a dozen missiles. About two dozen NLAWs too. Enough to demonstrate practice fires in self training by printed out instructions. And even a couple of Panzefaust 3 among other zoo of various rockets and stuff that change hands in intense close quarters skirmishes. Such incidents happened both in the east where portions of the fortifications line were overrun and in Kyiv suburbs including a whole regimental warehouse as late as in the third week or so.

In exchange we already have examples of almost the entire zoo of their newest EW and comms systems among other interesting or just bizarre things of all ages. It seems nobody been trained to destroy abandoned stuff on retreat.

Frankly I don't think they're be able to reverse engender anything anytime soon. They may forward to Chinese, but I would be surprised if it would be much novelty for them, actually.

In the Information Age, there are no secrets, not even military.

 

[LupusDei]

2. Wtf.
This is nuts.
Are you wilfully ignoring how Ukrainians have stopped Russian, Hungarian, Romanian, Moldovan and Bulgarian minorities from using their language since 2017.

WTF?

Nobody ever been "stopped using languages" that's absolutely nonsense. I admit ignorance about whatever law you talk about but I'm very much sure it doesn't mean what you think it does.

You're a victim of brainwashing spewing lies.

Sorry, but RUSSIANS REGULARLY MAKE TOTALLY FAKE SHIT UP. Report in bad faith with a deliberate bias, exaggerate ad absurdum and blow sensations out of mundane accidents. There's massive, decades lasting disinformation campaign. Russians used to be very good at it, but sometimes it's absolutely ridiculous. And sometimes when there's a misinterpreted

THERE NEVER WAS GENOCIDE IN DONBAS.

The so called "rebellion" was wholly imported special forces operation, partially supported by local gangs and later by regular army units. It's long time no secret and now openly admitted by Russians. Now they list those missions in officers obituaries even.

Was there few bad actors from Ukrainian side, sure there was.

Almost everything Russia ever says is a lie.

Not everything Ukraine says is true either, like just about anyone else.

Most people lie to you most of the time, mostly without knowing they repeat a lie.

 

[ll74]

WTF?

Nobody ever been "stopped using languages" that's absolutely nonsense. I admit ignorance about whatever law you talk about but I'm very much sure it doesn't mean what you think it does.

You're a victim of brainwashing spewing lies.

Sorry, but RUSSIANS REGULARLY MAKE TOTALLY FAKE SHIT UP. Report in bad faith with a deliberate bias, exaggerate ad absurdum and blow sensations out of mundane accidents. There's massive, decades lasting disinformation campaign. Russians used to be very good at it, but sometimes it's absolutely ridiculous. And sometimes when there's a misinterpreted

THERE NEVER WAS GENOCIDE IN DONBAS.

The so called "rebellion" was wholly imported special forces operation, partially supported by local gangs and later by regular army units. It's long time no secret and now openly admitted by Russians. Now they list those missions in officers obituaries even.

Was there few bad actors from Ukrainian side, sure there was.

Almost everything Russia ever says is a lie.

Not everything Ukraine says is true either, like just about anyone else.

Most people lie to you most of the time, mostly without knowing they repeat a lie.

People don't seem to grasp that Russian forces hang out in these countries, without being welcome by the government, specifically to stir up the pot and spread the bullshit.

If we had foreign troops in Texas..I doubt there'd be any question who was in the wrong

 

[pecksniff]

Sorry, but RUSSIANS REGULARLY MAKE TOTALLY FAKE SHIT UP. Report in bad faith with a deliberate bias, exaggerate ad absurdum and blow sensations out of mundane accidents. There's massive, decades lasting disinformation campaign. Russians used to be very good at it, but sometimes it's absolutely ridiculous. And sometimes when there's a misinterpreted

Was it like that in the Romanov days?

 

[pecksniff]

If we had foreign troops in Texas..I doubt there'd be any question who was in the wrong

There are foreign troops in Texas. They have this weird stripey flag.

 

[LupusDei]

Where do you get your info?

What was found in the regimental warehouse?

Actually, mostly Twitter, lol. I follow the war to a bit unhealthy degree.

Well, I must have said, allegedly, as filmed by Kadirovites (who produce all sorts of crap and deception), and apparently nothing much of substance, else they would have bragged more, not just shown a quick pan inside a door (looking rather credible to that point).

 

[mayfly13]

Sorry, but RUSSIANS REGULARLY MAKE TOTALLY FAKE SHIT UP. Report in bad faith with a deliberate bias, exaggerate ad absurdum and blow sensations out of mundane accidents. There's massive, decades lasting disinformation campaign.

THERE NEVER WAS GENOCIDE IN DONBAS.
The so called "rebellion" was wholly imported special forces operation, partially supported by local gangs and later by regular army units. It's long time no secret and now openly admitted by Russians. Now they list those missions in officers obituaries even.

Was there few bad actors from Ukrainian side, sure there was.
Almost everything Russia ever says is a lie.
Not everything Ukraine says is true either, like just about anyone else.

It is very probable that you're right about Donbas, the more I think about it.
And the way allmost all Eastern European&Baltic countries --minus Serbia, a bit Hungary-- rallied around Ukraine and against Russia, is testament to how badly they themselves were treated by Russia in the past, and of how they distrust Russia.

In saying that, please read the laws concerning minorities, that Ukraine introduced in 2017 and Zelenski put into draft, in 2021.

I also recently saw an interview with Hungarian, Romanian and Bulgarian minorities.
They claimed that, prior to 2017 they got on v. well with Ukrainians.
But post-2017, "we started not giving a fuck about Ukrainians war with Russia, none of the lay-Ukrainians thought of defending us when their government tried to erase our language and traditions".
Well now they do give a fuck, being bombed and killed is far worse than having your language slowly erased.

 

[pecksniff]

There are Bulgarians in Ukraine?!

 

[LupusDei]

Was it like that in the Romanov days?

Actually yes. For example, the mother of all modern conspiracy theories, the infamous "Protocols of Zion" were allegedly created by order of Tsar's Ohranka.

 

[LupusDei]

There are Bulgarians in Ukraine?!

Ukraine is very much political nation. The ethnicity definitely exists, but is also so diffuse. A lot of ethnic Ukrainians did speak Russian as primary language until the war (many no longer do now).

 

[icanhelp1]

Actually, mostly Twitter, lol. I follow the war to a bit unhealthy degree.

Well, I must have said, allegedly, as filmed by Kadirovites (who produce all sorts of crap and deception), and apparently nothing much of substance, else they would have bragged more, not just shown a quick pan inside a door (looking rather credible to that point).

Knowing about captured javelins on the battlefield seems to indicate to me that your sources, if it’s true, have a link, somehow, to sensitive info. I’m sure our military intel knows about it but to trivialize such a find on twitter seems to indicate someone leaking sensitive info close to the battle space. I find that pretty interesting. Maybe I’m just nuts. I believe you still need a secret clearance just to open up a maintenance manual on that system, maybe that changed.

 

[LupusDei]

I also recently saw an interview with Hungarian, Romanian and Bulgarian minorities.

And I today saw a video of a woman crying and emotionally telling how Azov fighters fired into (occupied) residential housing in Mariopol and how she barely survived and just got out of there. Someone posted image of background buildings seemingly indicating the video was actually filmed in Serbia...

It's easy to find someone to say something, and what they say they may believe or it even may even be totally true, but context can be manipulated.

That said, I may also totally buy that some Ukrainians might be radicalizing during those eight years of war. Zelensky was repeatedly criticized for lack of nationalism after all.

 

[icanhelp1]

Ukraine is very much political nation. The ethnicity definitely exists, but is also so diffuse. A lot of ethnic Ukrainians did speak Russian as primary language until the war (many no longer do now).

Should the Russo/Ukraine war be considered more of a civil war?