Your Predictions: Who Will Win?

[Jessie_Pinkman]

Not who you WANT to win, but who WILL win?

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...tions_electoral_college_map_race_changes.html

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html

 

[JackLuis]

Nate Silver just said:

Biden 71% chance of winning
Trump 29%
But don't start cheering until Nov 30th when most of the votes will be counted!

 

[SweetAnnette]

Biden / Harris!

 

[RelentlessOnanism]

Well, all common sense, basic human decency and rationality suggests it should be Biden/Harris, but this is America, so you never know...

 

[domroger]

Well, all common sense, basic human decency and rationality suggests it should be Biden/Harris, but this is America, so you never know...

Exactly .

 

[Fuzzy1975]

The best you in the US can hope for is Trump passing away from something prior to the election.

If Trump wins, there will be riots and violence, and if Trump loses there will be riots and violence.....

 

[KeithD]

Well, all common sense, basic human decency and rationality suggests it should be Biden/Harris, but this is America, so you never know...

Which makes me reluctant to make a call. What will be will be anyway. The Republicans should feel sleazy for pursuing the very un-American vote suppression path. And every local Republican I see is going to get a piece of my mind on that. They all are complicit unless they very vocally oppose this vile attempt to deny the voters their say, whatever it is.

 

[Lady2020]

I know who I want to win. Either candidate could keel over before Nov. 3.

 

[rae121452]

i think trump will win. i also think americans are for the most part really stupid. i wasn't surprised last time, i won't be surprised this time. you reap what you sow.

 

[Tigersman]

If Trump's efforts of talking Kayne West and our US Postal inspector's slowing down our mail plus getting rid of mail sorting equipment works then Trump may win. Republicans who are like a herd of buffalo will follow him over the cliff, setting our Nation on the course for our second Civil War. All we can hope for is that Biden wins by a landslide.

 

[bill3901]

********.

 

[jaF0]

Not who you WANT to win, but who WILL win?

Not WE The People.

And not U.S.

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

Trump acknowledges USPS troubles, but doesn't intend to fix them

"It is always essential that the Postal Service be able to deliver mail in a timely and effective manner. During the once-in-a-century health and economic crisis of COVID-19, the Postal Service's smooth functioning is a matter of life-or-death, and is critical for protecting lives, livelihoods and the life of our American Democracy," lawmakers wrote.

"The House is seriously concerned that you are implementing policies that accelerate the crisis at the Postal Service, including directing Post Offices to no longer treat all election mail as First Class. If implemented now, as the election approaches, this policy will cause further delays to election mail that will disenfranchise voters and put significant financial pressure on election jurisdictions."

In case this weren't quite enough, CNN reported last night that Postmaster General DeJoy "continues to hold a multi-million-dollar stake in his former company XPO Logistics, a United States Postal Service contractor, likely creating a major conflict of interest, according to newly obtained financial disclosures and ethics experts."

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

Damn liberal media...

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

 

[YDB95]

Damn liberal media...

Cute how they don't even acknowledge any polls from Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Texas, Florida or North Carolina, huh? Those are probably the most-polled states of this entire season.

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

Battleground: USPS

 

[jaF0]

'Rumpies are old white turds who 'have always done it that way, no reason to change'.

I did early in person for the Primary. Not sure what options I'll have this fall.

 

[Goldenfinger]

Last time they said Trump didn’t have a chance to even get the nomination. I don’t think you can go by polls.

 

[KeithD]

Last time they said Trump didn’t have a chance to even get the nomination. I don’t think you can go by polls.

Last time Trump had only fucked himself up and hadn't killed anyone yet; this time he's fucked the world up and is piling the bodies up. Predictions don't have to rely just on polls.

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

Last time they said Trump didn’t have a chance to even get the nomination. I don’t think you can go by polls.

I keep hearing that, and don't entirely disagree.

I've also been hearing that Trump was within the margin of error in 2016, and so far he is not (though it's still too early).

This graph uses
Weighted-average share of polls that correctly identify the winner in final 21 days of the campaign

In the 2016 general election, polls had a pro-Democratic bias of about 3 percentage points. This was fairly consistent across presidential, gubernatorial and congressional races; Trump outperformed his polls, but Republican candidates for Congress and governor did so by just as much.11 Polls also had a pro-Democratic bias in 2014.

Link