Your predictions, technology wise, for the next couple of decades

[Shy Tall Guy]

Here are mine:

1) HTML (XHTML/DHTML/whatever it morphs into) on digital paper. You go into a meeting with a meeting agenda on a single piece of paper. You will be able to browse the multiple page document on the digital paper, be able to expand and collapse outlines item by item, just about anything you can do with Dynamic HTML on a computer screen. You will be able to annotate the document and immediately send your annotations to other meeting members. Same goes for interfacing with whiteboard. What you and others write will go through a hand writing recognition program which will convert it to printed text on the paper.

I have already seen the digital paper - I predict in 20 years it will be capable of doing this. Indeed, your computer monitor will in essence be a paper thin color display of about 1000 DPI (possibly OEL?) - which is about ten times the display resolution of the best CRT monitors. Your "monitor" will weigh About one ounce or so, and you will be able to bend it like you can currently with display foil for overhead projectors, maybe even be able to fold it.

Oh, and Moores law will still hold true - in 20 years computers will be 1000 times faster and more powerful than they are now, but software will still lag behind hardware by a huge amount.

2) Huge advances in material sciences become possible with nano-tech. We will have plastics as thin and light as a silk napkin, but as strong as inch think armored steel and as cheap as paper. Possibly transparent metals. That kind of stuff. We are already seeing small improvements such as teflon coated clothing that is almost impervious to soiling. Remember that movie, I think it had Peter Sellers in it, where this tailor invented a suit that was impervious to dirt?

3) Fuel cell technology will replace reciprocating internal combustion engines in automobiles. We may even have fuel cells in our homes to generate our own electricity, or as backups for the grid.

What are your predictions?

 

[Guest]

 

[SilvaTungDevil]

I will be able to clone an army of myself with the intention of taking back the world for the powers of evil. Unfortunately, justifying it as a type of masturbation, I will end up spending most of my time in a gay orgy with my clones.

Ladies, is this gettin' you hot?

 

[hogjack]

Lightly browned please

The field of Artificial Intelligence will continue to advance.

Soon a common four-slot toaster will be be able beat Hannsy in a game of tic-tac-toe. Wait, that's already true.

Anyway, my main point still stands.


Oh,
Nano technology will rule.

 

[Guest]

maybe even be able to fold it.

But not more than six times!

 

[Shy Tall Guy]

Re: Lightly browned please

The field of Artificial Intelligence will continue to advance.

That I agree with, however, I don't think it will advance at any rate faster than it is now. In 20 years software will be able to maybe do voice/hand-writing recognition without any mistakes, and may be able to correctly interpret (but not understand) natural language. Unless someone comes up with a much better way to reproduce biological intelligence in a synthetic manner that can be programmed, I don't think we will see any kind of real intelligence from computers. They will be faster, have a lot more memory, but the bottom line is that what makes a computer intelligent is the software, and take it from me, software does not progress as fast as hardware. Where hardware will be 1000 times faster and more powerful (more memory, bandwidth, etc.) in 20 years, software in that same time will be only about twice as "powerful" (whatever that means) in those same two decades.

Soon a common four-slot toaster will be be able beat Hannsy in a game of tic-tac-toe. Wait, that's already true.

Computers, or whatever we call them in 20 years, will be able to do very specialized tasks, such as driving cars without human intervention, but only after being specifically programmed for a specific task. They won't be able to learn much, and they probably won't have the intelligence of an insect.

Nano technology will rule.

If not nano-tech then materials science in general, probably bio-tech too.

 

[kotori]

2) Huge advances in material sciences become possible with nano-tech. We will have plastics as thin and light as a silk napkin, but as strong as inch think armored steel and as cheap as paper. Possibly transparent metals. That kind of stuff. We are already seeing small improvements such as teflon coated clothing that is almost impervious to soiling. Remember that movie, I think it had Peter Sellers in it, where this tailor invented a suit that was impervious to dirt?

That was The Man in the White Suit (1951), from Ealing Studios, with Alec Guinness and Joan Greenwood (she had such a sexy voice). The suit was white, because the fabric not only was impervious to dirt, but to dyes as well. In the end, all the textile manufacturers decided they had to kill the project, and kill the inventor, because it would put them out of business. The film ended with a Key-stone Cops kinda chase around the factory grounds--and then it started to rain, and the suit disintegrated, rainwater was it's Achilles Heal.

 

[Aquila]

I predict they will perfect the real doll.. making warm to the touch skin... moist parts, and human like responses.

Hell If they programm her to make a sammich I might just buy me one.

 

[Guest]

My computer will still crash.

Especially if it's this one...

 

[Guest]

 

[concrete]

THE swipe -band braclet,or perhaps RING dissplacement..
global tracking.
A.T.M + credit response..
immagration + cult statues.
sexuall prev.
this sick list can go on forever,let's ,hope it doesn't.

 

[gumby5647]

In the next five years:

the four major computer companies will be.
Dell
Apple
IBM
HP/Compaq



Intel will break the 1billion transistor mark. And nobody will care.

OS X will help Apple reach 10% or more market share

AMD will be gone. Motorola won't have a semi-conductor division.


Every computer will be 64bit.

and best of all. every Best-buy salesperson will be trying to sell a 4Ghz Pentium V machine to someone who just needs to word process and surf the net. (ah. some things never change. For everything else, there's Apple computer)

 

[ma_guy]

Re: Re: Lightly browned please

Computers, or whatever we call them in 20 years, will be able to do very specialized tasks, such as driving cars without human intervention, but only after being specifically programmed for a specific task. [/B]

This is already here now. I saw a demo where GM lined up 20 cars equipped with computers linked via radio. The routes can be preprogrammed and the cars can operate safely at up to 80 MPH with a spacing of only 6 feet. The cars have no steering, acceleration or braking mechanism that any driver operates.

The ONLY thing holding up actual production are questions on legal liability should there be a malfunction.

This will be the single greatest hurdle for technology in the coming years. Our ability to inovate exceeds our ability/capacity to modify our laws and customs to adapt to the possibities technology offers. That can be both a good and a bad thing....

 

[Shy Tall Guy]

Re: Re: Re: Lightly browned please

This is already here now. I saw a demo where GM lined up 20 cars equipped with computers linked via radio. The routes can be preprogrammed and the cars can operate safely at up to 80 MPH with a spacing of only 6 feet. The cars have no steering, acceleration or braking mechanism that any driver operates.

The ONLY thing holding up actual production are questions on legal liability should there be a malfunction.

The system I saw requires sensors be placed in the roadway surface, and as far as I know it is still not ready for production. My comment was along the lines that cars may be able to drive themselves will be commonplace and not require special roads.

Either way, whether it is ready now or in 20 years, the point is that computers can do some special tasks better than humans, such as beat a chess master at chess, but they have to be programmed to do that task specifically and cannot learn it on their own. I don't think such "artifical intelligence" will be present in computers until we understand what intelligence is, and then it will be quite sometime before we can replicate it in computers.

 

[teddybear4play]

HTML (XHTML/DHTML/whatever it morphs into) on digital paper. You go into a meeting with a meeting agenda on a single piece of paper. You will be able to browse the multiple page document on the digital paper, be able to expand and collapse outlines item by item, just about anything you can do with Dynamic HTML on a computer screen. You will be able to annotate the document and immediately send your annotations to other meeting members. Same goes for interfacing with whiteboard. What you and others write will go through a hand writing recognition program which will convert it to printed text on the paper.

I have already seen the digital paper - I predict in 20 years it will be capable of doing this. Indeed, your computer monitor will in essence be a paper thin color display of about 1000 DPI (possibly OEL?) - which is about ten times the display resolution of the best CRT monitors. Your "monitor" will weigh About one ounce or so, and you will be able to bend it like you can currently with display foil for overhead projectors, maybe even be able to fold it.

I would agree. In fact, I would argue that "laptops" as we now know them in 20 years' time will essentially be a PDA: A 10" or 12" foldable flat screen monitor with full handwriting-to-text capabilities (no more keyboards) and wireless e-mail and Internet. The "hard drive" will probably contain as much as top-of-the-line desktops do now.

Fuel cell technology will replace reciprocating internal combustion engines in automobiles. We may even have fuel cells in our homes to generate our own electricity, or as backups for the grid.

I don't know about that, but by 2022, alternative energy sources will be close enough to as efficient as fossil fuels that they'll attain viability for primary power usage. But fossil fuels will probably still be used as a backup, just as some people still use oil lamps for heat and such.

TB4p

 

[Azwed]

What STG is talking about is called the Smart Road. The Smart Road control Center is a medium length walk from my apartment and you can sort of see the road from the control center as well. VDOT, Virginia tech and several other organizations are partners on the project.

 

[Shy Tall Guy]

Re: Re: Your predictions, technology wise, for the next couple of decades

with full handwriting-to-text capabilities (no more keyboards)

I would disagree with that; most people cannot write as fast as they can type. Unless we learn some kind of shorthand (some of the handwriting to text systems use a form of shorthand) something better than handwriting is going to have to replace the keyboard. I don't think virtual keyboards will be it either - no tactile feedback, unless we develop some kind of tactile feedback glove - which is quite possible.

The "hard drive" will probably contain as much as top-of-the-line desktops do now.

Permanent data storage on laptops are only 2-5 years behind desktops at most. I would predict that in 20 years we won't have any mechanical systems in our computers, that all memory in personal systems will be electronic instead of electro-mechanical. If Moore's law holds true, and I have good reason to believe it will, this is the minimum capacity/power of a computer in 20 years:

1) The processor will be the equivalent of a 2-4 terahertz processor - in short, one thousand times faster than it is now. Yes there is probably an upper limit to the clock speed of electronic circuitry, but I can remember when people were predicting that that limit was 100 mHz, and here we are today at 40 times that rate. I used the word "equivalent" because I believe CS scientists will get around any physical speed limitations by going with parallel CPUs, quite possible massively parallel CPUs. Instead of 1 CPU running at 2 terahertz, your PC in could be running 200 individual CPUs on one or more chips - each running at about 50-100 gigahertz. Each process may get its own CPU and memory.

2) Each PC will have a minimum of about 1 terabyte of RAM. It is possible that by this time we will not be able to have so much local data that we can use non-volatile solid state memory for permanent storage instead of electro-mechanical systems (hard drives). I have a 30 GB HDD in my system, and I have only used up about 7 GB of that. About half of that use comes from porn I have downloaded from newsgroups. I can easily get a 100 GB HDD for about the same cost I bought the 30 GB drive for last year, and I still wouldn't fill it up any faster. I think one of the reasons the economy is a bit down right now is because many people are realizing that the computers they currently have are fast and powerful enough for what they need to do, and that they don't need to upgrade everytime something 20-50% faster comes on the market. If something 4 times faster comes out then they consider it. But right now, the big speed bottlenecks are:

a) Throughput to/from the internet.
b) Electromechanical systems in our computers. The hard drive and CDs are getting slower and slower in relation to the speed of the computer. We are more and more often waiting for our computer to read from or write to a HDD or CD because the computer has finished all other tasks.


3) Cost. I can currently get a 120 GB HDD for about $175. RAM memory is $0.10 per megabyte. I can get a Dell 2 gHz desktop system, with flat panel monitor, 256 MB RAM, and 30 GB HDD for under $700. I can remember the price of an IBM XT that had about one thousandth of the speed, power and capacity, less than 20 years ago, easily cost about $8000. I predict, that in 20 years not only will our computers be a thousand times more powerful, but they will cost about one tenth as much as they do now. I.E., the typical system will be under $100.

One of the factors that is keeping costs up right now is the electro-mechanical systems. The hard drive is still a significant percentage of the cost (10-30%), as are the other electro-mechanical systems such as the CD, floppy, fan. Not to mention other hardware such as the box itself, the power supply and so on. Flat panel displays will eventually become much cheaper to manufacture as they require less materials, and are lighter to ship. Eventually they will become just a light film of plastic with a few circuits on a single chip, that costs a dollar or two to manufacture. CRTs are still analog systems in many regards, and it is thos analog systems that cost so much.

 

[Weird Harold]

Re: Re: Re: Your predictions, technology wise, for the next couple of decades

...they don't need to upgrade everytime something 20-50% faster comes on the market. If something 4 times faster comes out then they consider it. But right now, the big speed bottlenecks are:

a) Throughput to/from the internet.
b) Electromechanical systems in our computers. ...

3) Cost. I predict, that in 20 years not only will our computers be a thousand times more powerful, but they will cost about one tenth as much as they do now. I.E., the typical system will be under $100.

The manufacturers -- especially MS -- would like people to believe that a 1% improvement is a reason to upgrade, and many technophiles don't even require that much improvement to go shopping for "the next generation" of technology.

Another limitation on computer speed is the BUSS speeds -- currently up to 133KHz from the original IBM/ISA architectures 4KHz, but still much slower than the CPU could deal with efficiently.

Finally, I think your estimate of $100 is way too high. If Cell phones and calculators can be used as predictors, computers with ten times the capabilities of today's will be FREE -- with a service commitment to an ISP.

 

[Ishmael]

1. Silicon based computer technology will quickly be becoming a thing of the past. It will be replaced by quantum computers, possibly based on flourine atoms.

2. CRT's will be replaced by laser projection technology. This will also provide the first true 3D viewing experience.

3. Fusion will replace fossil fuel as the source of electrical production.

Ishmael

 

[Guest]

hmm

hopefully, perpetual motion cars.

 

[Lost Cause]

Nano Nano.........

Nanobots will replace non-emergency surgery and oral meds. Combined with cellular/DNA medical knowledge, you would pop a nano-pill, and the little buggers would perform cellular regeneration and dna mods to prevent cell oxidation, and excessive aging. Cancer and other problems could be surgically killed by nano lasers without radiation/invasive surgery and other stone-age medical operations.

Vehicles will be maglift driven by solar/batteries. The vehicles will have anti-collision radar that will stop all concerned vehicles in danger. The freeways will all terminate in each town at a immense park & ride, where you'd take mag-lift monorails to your work or mall. Further mag-path technology may make it possible to operate your vehicle to your home, via vertical mag sensors instead of horizontal ones.

The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades!

 

[Shy Tall Guy]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Your predictions, technology wise, for the next couple of decades

Another limitation on computer speed is the BUSS speeds -- currently up to 133KHz from the original IBM/ISA architectures 4KHz, but still much slower than the CPU could deal with efficiently.

I believe in the future the manufacturers will find ways around the interconnection speed problems. They will have to with parallel CPU systems to shuffle large amounts of data back and forth. They will find some way - they always do. Possibly have all the components in as few chips as possible, thereby having the phsyical bus distance small and internal is one way to get around those limitations, maybe optical connections would be another. They will find a way, but one main point is that they will need to find ways around some of these bottlenecks because these issues will become more and more of a problem as the difference in speeds become greater and greater.

I should point out for those not familiar with computer design, that clock speed is a handy but not always accurate means of guaging speed. Newer processors have more computing power for various other reasons besides clock speeds. Another measure of CPU power is the number of transistors in the chip. The Pentium 4 has 40 times the number of transistors that the 80486 had, and its databus bandwidth is 32/64 bit compared to the 8/16 (external/internal) bit bandwidth of the 8088 used in the original IBM PCs. More databus bandwidth equates to more data to be able to be processed with each clock cycle. Then there are other methods such as pipelining and caching of instructions/data.

All that is a complicated way of saying that, using raw MIPS (millions of instructions per second) a 2 gHz Pentium is actually over 3000 times faster than a 2 mHz 8088, instead of the 1000 times that the clock speed would suggest - and MIPS is a very raw measurement, there are others that would more accurately show a much greater increase in processing power and speed as today's processors can do a bit more with each instruction than the earlier processor could do.

So, my estimate that in 20 years computers will be a thousand times faster/more powerful is a bit conservative.

 

[Ishmael]

A laboratory test quantum computer (5 molecules) solved a quadratic equation in 7 operations. This same solution took 1000 operations on a state of the art super computer.

Ishmael

 

[Shy Tall Guy]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Your predictions, technology wise, for the next couple of decades

Finally, I think your estimate of $100 is way too high. If Cell phones and calculators can be used as predictors, computers with ten times the capabilities of today's will be FREE -- with a service commitment to an ISP.

Quite possibly true. Today's cell phones aren't free (they actually cost almost as much as a cheap computer) - they are just subsidized by giving them away with a sevice contract. Ten years ago I worked for a company that "gave away" computers and software as part of a service contract that committed the buyer to buying so many million immunoassays for testing blood for pathogens.

As I have always told people - the money is in the software and the services. With Open Source software, the money is in the services. Not every software product can be Open Source as not every software product needs consulting services. There is a big difference between giving away Linux, Apache or JBOSS, and making money on setting it up or consulting, and writing a small utility such as an HTML editor. People are not going to pay you $50-100 per hour to help them with an HTML editor even if it is free to start with.

But the money is in software/services - hardware will increasingly become a commodity. Besides, it is software that really makes the computer smart. We will probably soon see the day when the computer is free, but you pay $400 for the basic software suite that comes with it. I believe people are kind of doing that now - they just aren't aware of it.

Some people may say "oh, I will just download free software", but it isn't quite that easy, especially when setting it up.

 

[Shy Tall Guy]

A laboratory test quantum computer (5 molecules) solved a quadratic equation in 7 operations. This same solution took 1000 operations on a state of the art super computer.

Ishmael

Yep, and the quantum computers are not just the only tech on the horizon - there are also molecular computers and biological computers too. One or more of these techs, possibly a combination of them, will make computers much faster in the future. It is possible that in 20 years computers won't be just 1000 times faster and more powerful, but a million or even a billion times faster and more powerful. We will probably see leaps of technology on the order of several magnitudes from time to time. Just as when we went from analog and tubes to solid state and digital, then from discrete components to integrated circuits.