Will the U.S. pull the EU out of the mud?

[WriterDom]

I hope so. A healthy Europe would speed our recovery. But I wonder if Europe is moving in the right direction with this union. Sure, all the ships in the harbor will be at the same level, but that's going to drag down the top performers. Expanding into Eastern Europe makes about as much sense as the US merging with Mexico.

I hope this isn't ego driven in order to compete with the size and strength of the US. We've learned from experience what a weak central government can lead to when states overstep their authority. America has spilled enough of her blood on European soil.



OECD sees U.S. rebounding sharply, EU lagging

By Jeremy Gaunt

ATHENS, April 11 (Reuters) - The OECD has sharply increased its 2002 economic growth forecast for the United States, adding fuel to the view that the world's economic engine is bouncing back to life.

Draft figures, obtained by Reuters, project that the U.S. economy will grow at a relatively healthy 2.2 percent clip this year, far higher than the 0.7 percent rate that the Paris-based organisation forecast last November.

The figures are part of a report sent to the member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. A final report is due to be released on April 25.

If confirmed, the OECD's projections for U.S. growth would match those expected to be released later this month by the International Monetary Fund.

But while the U.S. economy is seen leaping out of its 2001 doldrums, other major world economies are seen lagging.

The OECD report sees euro zone growth rising at a modest 1.3 percent this year, slightly down on November's 1.4 percent forecast.

Japan remains in contraction, with economic output seen shrinking 0.8 percent percent this year, slightly better than the 1.0 percent dip forecast by the OECD in November.

The OECD sees Japan growing next year, but barely, with output seen rising 0.3 percent in 2003.

Hopes of global economic recovery brightened last week with release of the OECD's lead indicators, which projected a powerful rebound in world industrial output.

The draft forecast projects an improved 1.6 percent expansion rate for the 30 member OECD economies, up from November's 1.0 percent.

U.S. inflation is forecast to rise 1.4 percent this year, lower than the euro zone's 2.1 percent forecast, according to the draft OECD figures.

Japan, however, remains stuck in deflation with prices projected to fall 1.5 percent.

The brighter growth outlook is expected to stabilise U.S. unemployment, which the OECD draft sees at 5.6 percent for this year.

Euro zone joblessness is seen at 8.3 percent, higher than Japan's 6.0 percent.

 

[p_p_man]

Yes. I'm none too happy about Europe...

absorbing East European countries into the new integrated monetary system of the EU. That all appears to be happening too quickly for anyone's benefit.

But the forecasts of the OECD are just that - forecasts; and I believe you'll find that the forecast for the EU in which expansion and monetary union is factored into the figures hasn't really changed too much since November 2001.

It's America that's leapt ahead quicker than the original figures. Everyone else is just about staying the same.

ppman

 

[bored1]

The American economy drives the world, and will for a long time to come. Seems to me that Europe and its high unemployment and continued immigration from 3rd world countries will always be in the mud.

 

[KillerMuffin]

Capitalism drives the world. American seems to be the one doing it when in fact it's only the capitalists that have found fertility in America. Don't worry, the EU is as capitalistic as we are, they'll be American just like us before you can say Bob's your uncle.

Theory is that the three blocks, the Asian Pacific Rim, America, and Europe have a sort of train effect that when one is in recession the other's pull it out. Our economies are so intertwined right now that we could never separate them. The problem we have now is that all three blocks are in recession. This is unprecedented and economists have no idea what's going on.

Capitalism is, and to some extent has, supplanted the nation-state as a source of policy making. You may take, for example, the whole steel tariff fiasco. A nation has every right to protect domestic industry, one would think. However, capitalistic ideals such as free trade circumvent a nation from creating tariffs or from doing things that will protect domestic industry. We have yet to see what's going to happen in WTO courts, but this is, no doubt, the last time something like this will ever happen. The last hurrah of governmental policy in place of capital policy. The steel tariffs were put in place to pacify a large block of voters, steelworkers, who are in dire danger of losing their jobs. Capitalists don't care about these things since free trade is more important. Instead we are exporting these steel jobs to Indochina, I believe, where they have a corner on the steel market with cheap labor and the tech to compete.

You proclaim the EU as the greatest thing since sliced bread, p_p_man, but it will not exist for long. Enjoy being a European for the short time it takes for a capitalist based hemispheric hegemony to sprout.

See, money makes the world go round and multinational corporations are finding it easier and easier to ignore political power because they have no borders.

An interesting note, how many corporations have private armies?

I'm sounding like a Marxist, now. Despite the man's delusional utopian theories, he was to economics as Einstein was to physicists. I recommend that you read Marx's first book on Capital. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/A...9147448/sr=2-2/ref=sr_2_2/104-8059221-7292727

 

[p_p_man]

You proclaim the EU as the greatest thing since sliced bread......An interesting note, how many corporations have private armies?

It is compared with what Europe has been in the past.

In the days when Science Fiction was Science Fiction and not tales of sorcery there was a very good book by, I think, Philip K. Dick about future wars being fought between Corporations and not countries. To be a Company man meant the same as being a national of a country today.

Trouble is I can't remember the title.

ppman

 

[MunchinMark]

An interesting note, how many corporations have private armies?

Do lawyers count? They can be used offensively, and are quite devastating.

The connection between corporation and government is very old indeed. The early stages of the British Empire were private business ventures (corporations with private armies). Most of medieval and renaissance Italian politics was to do with trade and banking. The present day situation in Italy is very interesting from this point of view, the prime minister owns a lot of very big organisations and seems to be adjusting the law to his own private interests.

That's the point really. Business and politics are interlinked. One will not replace the other. They effect each other very closely, but this is nothing new.

As to Europe's economic situation, on the whole it is as well as we could hope for in the current world climate.

Of course Europe wants to get into a position were it can directly compete with America. Do you think that ambition is a purely US quality?