Will Harris win Texas?

[Rick345]

Is Trump playing defense in Montana a state that should be reliably red?

Texas has steadily leaned blue. In Texas, Obama lost by 16 points in 2012, Hillary lost by 9 points in 2016, and Biden lost by 5 in 2020. I know Arizona had been red since the days of Berry Goldwater but voted for Biden in 2020.. If Texas sides with Harris/Walz Trump doesn’t have a chance..

 

[YDB95]

It gets closer every election. I don't think we're quite there yet...but then again, if Trump keeps imploding, who knows what the map will look like by November?

Incidentally, Montana is occasionally close (Obama nearly carried in 2008). I wonder if the Republicans have seen some polling there that has them concerned?

 

[MajorRewrite]

My guesses worth nothing:

Texas goes blue in 2028.

Florida goes blue in 2024.

Montana has a massive 4 electoral college votes!

 

[Chernosoth]

I assume all states are in play. The candidates don't have time to physically visit every state, but they have been around long enough to have established local connections.

 

[ll74]

Harris won't win Texas. She also will not win Montana.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Harris will not win Texas. Wrt to Montana, there is a very important race that could help the GOP win control of the Senate. The GOP candidate holds a slight lead over Tester but it’s a close race. Trump will win the electoral votes but his presence is needed help energize GOP voters to get to the polls and cast their votes for Sheehy.

 

[jaF0]

Until 2000, Texas was solid blue:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_governors_of_Texas


.

 

[YDB95]

Until 2000, Texas was solid blue:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_governors_of_Texas

It hasn't gone blue for president since 1976. I don't see that changing this year unless Trump flames out even worse than he's already doing (but that is a real possibility...)

Montana has a massive 4 electoral college votes!

It's those small-population states that give the Republicans an advantage in the electoral college. If a few more of them flipped to the Dems (I'm not saying I expect that to happen, just saying IF it did), all that stuff they say about original intent and protecting rural voters from the tyranny of the majority? Out the window. Count on it!

 

[MajorRewrite]

Harris will not win Texas.

BabyBoo is a time traveler! Cool!

Who’s going to win the World Series? I want to get a bet down. Thanks.

 

[YDB95]

BabyBoo is a time traveler! Cool!

He is probably right, although as usual he's simply predicting what he hopes will happen.

 

[Rick345]

if Trump keeps imploding, who knows what the map will look like by November?

Yes, everything is still in play and it is surprising how quickly the political landscape has changed in three weeks. When Trump was shot and came up pumping his fist I figured there was no chance for the Democrats. But here we are and it looks like he's sinking.

I've been trying to think of a title and a paragraph or two, to introduce a discussion of what mayhem and bullshit can be expected of Trump if he loses on November 5th. It's a bit early but I like to plan ahead.

 

[Rick345]

Harris won't win Texas. She also will not win Montana.

OK, what's your take on Florida? Georgia?

 

[RobDownSouth]

Harris will not win Texas in 2024. Texas is turning inexorably blue, yet the percentage of minority voters who actually vote has been abysmal for decades. The white power structure in Austin continues to come up with new and innovative ways to stymie civic participation by non-whites.

Back in 2016, for example, they stuffed voting machines by the dozen into Republican-friendly precincts while providing the bare minimum in minority precincts. White voters could breeze in and out, non-white voters had to endure lengthy lines (often accompanied by hard glances from armed, menacing looking "vote auditors").

 

[Rick345]

Harris will not win Texas. Wrt to Montana, there is a very important race that could help the GOP win control of the Senate. The GOP candidate holds a slight lead over Tester but it’s a close race. Trump will win the electoral votes but his presence is needed help energize GOP voters to get to the polls and cast their votes for Sheehy.

Montana will be interesting either way. If Tester wins the Democrats will play it up even though Tester distanced himself from Harris/Walz. Democrats will play it up as support from Trump is a death blow to Republicans. If Sheehy wins Trump can say it is the first of many victories for Republicans now onto the Whitehouse. Plus another Republican in the Senate which strightens their game.

 

[Lazaran]

Harris will not win Texas in 2024. Texas is turning inexorably blue, yet the percentage of minority voters who actually vote has been abysmal for decades. The white power structure in Austin continues to come up with new and innovative ways to stymie civic participation by non-whites.

Back in 2016, for example, they stuffed voting machines by the dozen into Republican-friendly precincts while providing the bare minimum in minority precincts. White voters could breeze in and out, non-white voters had to endure lengthy lines (often accompanied by hard glances from armed, menacing looking "vote auditors").

The fucks weren’t / aren’t even being subtle about it.



I don’t know if anyone bothered watching President Biden’s interview with Robert Costas, but the President made a very salient point about modern day racists and fascists: President Biden pointed out how back in the day, the KKK would wear hoods, but in Charlottesville they didn’t bother, because they knew they had a supporter in the White House at the time. The same goes for many of the J6 traitors.



Here’s the interview:

That ^ is a very worthwhile watch.





Side note:

President Biden is clearly perfectly fit to be President, but his inability to adequately express himself (message) due to his stutter and his raspy voice, is, by itself, a reasonable justification for the calls for him to step aside.

 

[ll74]

OK, what's your take on Florida? Georgia?

Florida is Trump's. Georgia is a toss up

 

[adrina]

“Vibe shift”: Young Texas voters, motivated by Kamala Harris, lock into the presidential election​

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/08/12/kamala-harris-texas-young-voters-gen-z/

 

[RobDownSouth]

Florida is Trump's. Georgia is a toss up

Georgia has pre-emptively "stacked the deck" against Kamala Harris more than any other state.

She has to win the popular vote by 55 to 56% to keep the chicanery the Republican legislature has put in place to alter the election results.

Prediction: Major "Lawfare" by election officials to assure Trump gets electoral votes.