"Why no more 9/11s?"

Kev H

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Hopefully this hasn't been posted somewhere I missed in my 2-page scan. The link is an interesting article which shows various experts (with decent credentials, for the most part) giving different opinions on this question.

http://slate.com/id/2213025

Thoughts?
 
RELAX!

8 years passed between the 1993 and 2001 bombings of the World Trade Center. 2009 is 8 years later.
 
You aint heard the funny part yet.

After we move all the Guantanamo Bay al Quaida to Virginia, hee hee hee, Osama's gonna start some serious shit to free them. Man! that ole Osama is a joker! Prolly take over a elementary school or sumpin. They did it in Russia a few years ago.
 
VOLUPTUOUS MAMASBOY

I suppose we'll see what happens.
 
You aint heard the funny part yet.

After we move all the Guantanamo Bay al Quaida to Virginia, hee hee hee, Osama's gonna start some serious shit to free them. Man! that ole Osama is a joker! Prolly take over a elementary school or sumpin. They did it in Russia a few years ago.

Your choice of state reminded me of a little set-to between John Grisham and Tom Clancy that Charlottesville got victimized by. John Grisham is one of a group of thriller authors petitioning authors of their genre to cut down on the gratuitous violence in their books. Grisham specifically singled out Clancy. And a couple of years ago (the name of the book escapes me now), Clancy put a particuarly bloody shoot-em-up terrorist scene in one of his books--as an attack on the Fashion Square Mall, our local shopping mall (and where Grisham does a lot of his shopping).
 
RELAX!

8 years passed between the 1993 and 2001 bombings of the World Trade Center. 2009 is 8 years later.

That might have some significance (the date 9/11 wasn't exactly a coincidence) if the little darlings hadn't been trying to mount attacks of this magnitude in the intervening years since 2001. It would seem to be a meaningful pattern for them if they'd just waited for the eighth year to roll around.
 
Hopefully this hasn't been posted somewhere I missed in my 2-page scan. The link is an interesting article which shows various experts (with decent credentials, for the most part) giving different opinions on this question.

http://slate.com/id/2213025

Thoughts?
The debate is a endless self-fulfilling prophecy. If you don't like the Bush administration, you don't have to give them credit for anything because there are dozens of reasons why we might not have been hit (including sheer dumb luck). If you're in favor of their policies, you can find dozens of reasons why the policies protected us. Either side has to rely on the previously classified information that's been released to the public (or guess at what hasn't), which means you have to trust the very Government sources that are at the heart of the political differences. That makes any reasonable discussion impossible because anyone without high-level clearance is simply guessing based on their political predilections. Everyone is going to read into it what they already believed, so nothing ever gets resolved. It's the perfect conspiracy theory.
 
That might have some significance (the date 9/11 wasn't exactly a coincidence) if the little darlings hadn't been trying to mount attacks of this magnitude in the intervening years since 2001. It would seem to be a meaningful pattern for them if they'd just waited for the eighth year to roll around.

Or, they could just be waiting for security measures to relax.

When I flew back to the States from Europe in 2004, security measures were stringent. I remember arriving at the airport three hours before my flight was due to leave and having to wait half that time in line at the security checkpoint.

When I went to the first Chicago Litogether in 2007, I spent about forty-five minutes at the checkpoint, and had my lighters confiscated.

Just a few weeks ago, coming back from Chicago Litogether 3, I went through the security checkpoint with an expired license (the picture for which had been taken in 1999 -- my more current license had been lost), my SS card, and a birth registration card issued from the military when I was born in Germany. I was held back for inspection, had my bags searched (but not emptied out) and was patted down. The whole process took about fifteen minutes, and since I was amiable and had expected the possibility of this occurring, I didn't object.

I was cleared and went on to my plane, along with two lighters and a wine key (which includes a corkscrew and small blade, either of which could be dangerous).

Now, I'm not a terrorist, but I could have been one for all the airport personnel knew. And, I had been cleared to fly from SA to Chicago without such an extensive check. Maybe neither San Antonio nor Chicago are major terrorist targets, but once a terrorist gets into the country, it's really just a simple matter of getting around to reach their intended destination.

Just offering that for consideration.
 
I think there are probably quite a few elements as to why we haven't been hit again. One thing is a higher vigilance on the part of the security organizations and law enforcement in this country. Forget about administrations. The day to day agents in charge of protecting us don't want to see it happen again. Also, for all their bravado, al Qaeda and their ilk called down far more thunder on themselves than they ever expected. (Handled properly it would have been even worse for them.) Another issue is that they are extremely patient. Eight years isn't shit to these people.

Getting to administrations, I think the Bush Shock and Awe approach initially took them by surprise. Of course, that level cannot be maintained and they just waited it out. There is probably a part of the terrorist organizations that is concerned to see how they will be handled by a rational President who could literally bring the force of the whole world against them. Bush squandered the sympathy of the world right after 9/11, but it isn't impossible that Obama could repair enough of the damage to bring in allies in this fight.

Bush had the opportunity to be a truly great leader, facing the circumstances in the aftermath of 9/11. But as they say: Some are born great, other have greatness thrust upon them. And yet others could fuck up a county fair.
 
Bush had the opportunity to be a truly great leader, facing the circumstances in the aftermath of 9/11. But as they say: Some are born great, other have greatness thrust upon them. And yet others could fuck up a county fair.
Love you, Boota! :kiss:

And here's yet another reason why we're not going to see another 9/11--and by that I mean planes crashing into buildings--anytime soon: It's a one trick pony.

The 9/11 guys had it easy because planes had a rule prior to then that you let the hijackers take over and you go where they want to go and you negotiate on the ground. So they were able to pull out box cutters, get no resistance and do what they wanted to do. It's the same idea as letting a thief have your wallet rather than resisting and getting hurt. But now the pilots have the rule that they lock that door. And they have guns in the cockpits. If someone tries to take over the plane, two things will happen, the pilots will not let them do it even if they start hurting passengers, and the passengers will gang up on them. Box cutters won't do shit this time around. Neither will lighters or cockscrews or even a gun.

Just look at how many times it's happened in the past few years. If anything has stopped a 9/11 style attack it's that. The fact that each and EVERY time we hear about someone with a shoe bomb or going a little crazy and trying to open a door or waving a weapon or even looking suspicious, the rest of the people on the plane gang up on them and stop them. Subdue them. Or report them to security and get them kicked off.

So if you're asking why no one has aimed a plane into a building again in the last 8 years, the answer is simple. It's not because of airport security (or just because of it), but because people on planes are paranoid and they aren't going to make it easy for anyone to do that again anytime soon. Terrorists succeed by finding weaknesses and exploiting them. 9/11 worked because we never imagined the hijacker of a plane would be a suicide bomber.
 
Game and set to 3113. When the public is willing to take responsibility for its own safety, terrorists are much less free to act.
 
Love you, Boota! :kiss:

And here's yet another reason why we're not going to see another 9/11--and by that I mean planes crashing into buildings--anytime soon: It's a one trick pony.
The article is an excellent summary of current theory on the subject, this is known as the "Burden-of-Success" theory.

They all however, point to increased risk over the coming months, though it's logistically unlikely that anybody will be able to top 9-11, for which there is also some evidence that it was an inside job, which adds more unknown variables.

The ideal attack under this scenario, would be nuclear, resulting in mass hysteria and martial law abrogating constitutional guarantees, and allowing certain elements to purge their enemies under cover of national security.

This would almost have to be an inside job, since AQ does not appear to be close to having Nuclear capability anytime soon according to the analytical consensus.

Yes, I sleep with one eye open. :)
 
The article is an excellent summary of current theory on the subject, this is known as the "Burden-of-Success" theory.

They all however, point to increased risk over the coming months, though it's logistically unlikely that anybody will be able to top 9-11, for which there is also some evidence that it was an inside job, which adds more unknown variables.

The ideal attack under this scenario, would be nuclear, resulting in mass hysteria and martial law abrogating constitutional guarantees, and allowing certain elements to purge their enemies under cover of national security.

This would almost have to be an inside job, since AQ does not appear to be close to having Nuclear capability anytime soon according to the analytical consensus.

Yes, I sleep with one eye open. :)

Someone I work closely with in another venue, who runs emergency medical teams for the Fed, is currently out on training on thermonuclear explosion response teams for inside the US. When we caught those portable nukes in late 2001, we only caught 2 of 3. We don't know where the third is. This didn't make me sleep any better, either, but it did make me feel a little better that I'm not living in a city likely to be a target.

A world without nuclear weapons has a real charm to it.
 
The article is an excellent summary of current theory on the subject, this is known as the "Burden-of-Success" theory.

They all however, point to increased risk over the coming months, though it's logistically unlikely that anybody will be able to top 9-11, for which there is also some evidence that it was an inside job, which adds more unknown variables.

The ideal attack under this scenario, would be nuclear, resulting in mass hysteria and martial law abrogating constitutional guarantees, and allowing certain elements to purge their enemies under cover of national security.

This would almost have to be an inside job, since AQ does not appear to be close to having Nuclear capability anytime soon according to the analytical consensus.

Yes, I sleep with one eye open. :)

Please produce your proof.

Until you do I find your comments ludicrous, especially your supposition that the Obama administration would use something like that to "purge their enemies".
 
That might have some significance (the date 9/11 wasn't exactly a coincidence) if the little darlings hadn't been trying to mount attacks of this magnitude in the intervening years since 2001. It would seem to be a meaningful pattern for them if they'd just waited for the eighth year to roll around.

How do I want to say it? Osama and Company are masters at manipulating chaos, but they also have to conform to how things are. Like hyenas, his band is good at making the lions hysterical, but hyenas also have to contend with the male lions who dont get hysterical, and relish opportunities to kill hyenas.

I think the 8 year interval demonstrates patience, and the 9-11 date demonstrates competence.
 
AQ does not appear to be close to having Nuclear capability anytime soon according to the analytical consensus.
Just to make you sleep with both eyes open...they don't need to have Nuclear capability. See, thanks to the Cold War, the USSR has all these old, warehoused nuclear devices. All AQ needs is the money to buy one from some insider in THAT government willing to sell it to them.

Much cheaper than creating your own.
 
How do I want to say it? Osama and Company are masters at manipulating chaos, but they also have to conform to how things are. Like hyenas, his band is good at making the lions hysterical, but hyenas also have to contend with the male lions who dont get hysterical, and relish opportunities to kill hyenas.

I think the 8 year interval demonstrates patience, and the 9-11 date demonstrates competence.


I don't have the vaguest idea what you think you're saying here. But it doesn't matter--I'm not all that interested in what you're saying.

The discussion on "why not" since 9/11 has left out the most important element. With a lot of help, we've tracked down and cut off the "planner" heads as they have popped up to put more into motion. We'd been doing this before 9/11, but with less attention/interest from other countries than after. (It was useful for the defense against this that they attacked an international center and killed more than Americans.) This threat has been around for decades--not just eight years.

Bin Laden and company were as surprised as anyone else that 9/11 worked as well as it did for them (and it wasn't a perfect plan--the Pentagon wasn't one of the better targets available--especially the side of it that had just been reinforced). Sending troops in to burn him out discombobulated his planning--and would have continued to do so, if we hadn't redirected the effort to his long-time enemy Iraq (which Bin Laden no doubt found amusing). But since then there have been a lot of plans fielded--and, thus far, cut off at the head. Unfortunately, it only takes one plan to succeed to throw us into chaos again--and there's always a good chance of one plan succeeding no matter what you do.

No, I don't think they are waiting to meet some sort of eight-year plan.

I agree with Slyc that security is getting lax again. This is inevitable. And the flip side is that the disruption the measures have caused to everyday life has been almost as much of a success for the Bin Laden folks as 9/11 was.

But I don't think they've been waiting for a certain level of security laxness to be reached. There have been continuous plans afoot and they certainly hoped that they all would work.
 
SR71PLT

The duration of time is irrelevant. I'd wager that Osama will seize any opportunity that comes along. Whats relevant is his perseverance and the competence of its execution.

During the Iran Hostage Rescue Attempt the US Military did a Mexican hatdance on its dick.
 
SR71PLT

The duration of time is irrelevant. I'd wager that Osama will seize any opportunity that comes along. Whats relevant is his perseverance and the competence of its execution.

During the Iran Hostage Rescue Attempt the US Military did a Mexican hatdance on its dick.

Are you into the bourbon this morning JBJ? Again, that don't make a lick of sense.
 
Please produce your proof.

Until you do I find your comments ludicrous, especially your supposition that the Obama administration would use something like that to "purge their enemies".
You know very well I cannot do that, but it does nothing to ease my suspicions - the use of an attack to centripetalize and militarize the country has precedent, The sinking of the Maine occurred under mysterious circumstances, it was an open secret that the Lusitania was illegally transporting arms an munitions, and was vulnerable to attack, there is evidence that Roosevelt knew the entire Japanese fleet was steaming towards Pearl Harbor, and the carriers were moved to avoid it, up the Pentagon papers, Operation Northwoods, the assassination of Mossadegh, etc., etc.

The US is traditionally isolationist, the modern anti-war movement for instance dates back to the Phillipine-American war, widely denounced as an expansionist war, opposition was widespread and popular, there being a lot of tension between what is seen as Domestic interests vs. foreign policy as a tool to further corporate interests.

At issue in the Pacific were rubber plantations among other things, and the Pacific front in WWII largely concerned the Japanese takeover of these.

Nothing new, in other words, and in a more general sense, when was there ever a time when somebody wasn't trying to take over the world?

The US military is out of the picture, tied up in Iraq, while an army of corporate mercenaries continues to swell - they provided security on American soil at least once already, In New Orleans, after Katrina. Blackwater's CEO has a White supremacist background, and there are numerous interconnections between various other corporations involved - Kellogg Brown and Root, a subsidiary of Halliburton was contracted to build detention camps:

January 24, 2006, KBR was awarded a contract by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the Department of Homeland Security worth "a maximum total value of $385 million over a five-year term" to provide "for establishing temporary detention and processing capabilities to augment existing ICE Detention and Removal Operations (DRO) Program facilities in the event of an emergency influx of immigrants into the U.S., or to support the rapid development of new programs."
Kellogg Brown and Root

The religious right is being whipped into a frenzy, and mesmerized and led into an increasingly militant stance by the "culture war" crumb trail of Dominionist theology, are "shock troops", evidenced by Joels Army, Left Behind, etc. Google away.

It's entirely plausible, all that is needed is a catalyst, although I prefer to think that the average American is not that dumb - economic collapse introduces and additional element of desperation: Hitlers rise to power was aided immeasurably by economic hardship, and he played the Christians the same way.

Think what you like, I'm going to stay on top of it myself.
 
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And I didn't say anything about the Obama administration did I?
 
XXSVE

The threat isnt from the Fundies. Its from me.
 
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