Why have Republicans stopped bragging about the stock market?

[Que]

Until wages increase, consumers don’t buy.

Nice circular reasoning. . .

. . .not to mention historically inaccurate including during the Trump recovery which should have happened eight years ago.

 

[Que]

So let's recap the Uber debacle:

Adre derisively snorted that my advice to specifically short Uber was worthless.

Uber lost more on opening day than even I imagined, and certainly more than any article I read on the subject. The facts that led me to conclude that this would (eventually) be the biggest loss to investors ever were all couched in, "Concerns are raised that ___________ is problematic, BUT Uber/Analysts/pundits/investors feel that ________________ justifies/excuses/gives hope that...."

All the information was and is publically available. If it looks like a scam, walks like a scam, and talks like a scam, it probably is. Pointing to companies that should have failed but did not is meaningless. 50% of all small businesses fail within the first year of startup. They're in the restaurant industry it's far worse than that I think it's something like 85% fail within the first year. Within that 15% you can find some successes. It's ridiculous to top a brand new restaurant by showing the success of one of the few that made it.

I maintain that all of the articles I read said that Uber had forestalled concerns by pricing their IPO well below the (heavily inflated, without foundational basis) estimates of value. Since Adre is so sure that my analysis comes from someplace else I am certain he can find several articles that recommended shorting the stock on opening day.

Now today-down another 10%

https://www.apnews.com/5dad6f17faa54898bf3e35d7c57131b7

The ride-hailing giant’s stock fell 10% and hovered around $37 Monday afternoon on Uber’s first full day of trading.

It’s rare to see shares in a tech company hit so hard upon going public. Over the past five years, just 10% of similar companies finished their first day of trading below their IPO price, Kennedy said.

This is very interesting:

https://www.axios.com/uber-ipo-investor-losses-d9b01daf-ece4-47d2-8f68-fe56dd98321b.html

I bump into Axios from time to time, and they usually have pretty good concise analysis that you can click for more analysis but I'm not really sure who they are and they don't tend to do a very good job of showing sourcing. Not so much because I'm questioning what they're saying but because it makes it hard to follow links and figure out why they are saying what they're saying. Their focus is on being easily digestible, it seems.

By the numbers: From 2016 onwards, per PitchBook, Uber raised $15.35 billion at $48.77 per share; it then raised another $8.6 billion in its IPO on Thursday at the slightly lower price of $45 per share. Those numbers dwarf the $5.6 billion that Uber raised before 2016. As of the close of trade on Friday, the market has now spoken: Uber shares are actually worth $41.57.

The bottom line: A whopping 81% of the $29.55 billion in equity that Uber has raised is underwater. IPO investors have lost $655 million, while investors from 2016 and 2018 have between them lost $2.27 billion.
Losers: Investors who bought Uber shares 3 years ago have lost 15% of their money, before fees. The opportunity cost is even greater: Investors in the S&P 500 have seen their money grow by 50% over the same period.
Winners: Lyft shares are also trading well below their IPO price, which didn't help the Uber offering. But so far all of Lyft's pre-IPO investors remain in the money. The most that any of them paid was $47.35 per share.

I was thinking months in years for investors to take a bath. I'm not seeing anybody quantifying this but I'm wondering if it is isn't already an historic loss, at least on paper. Volume of trading suggests that the big guys didn't actually get out. At least not yet.

The reason this is interesting is I saw none of these specific break-even points discussed before the IPO. The numbers were available, I am sure but no one was talking about which group needs this IPO to be at what level. It was priced in a way that some of these investors would only break even, a pretty modest goal and sounds like an exit strategy on a loser.

They thing that peaked my interest before the IPI was how little they were trying to raise with this IPO. They weren't issuing this IPO in order to raise vapital because they were only going to increase their capital by about 10% which you would think they would have no trouble getting from those same well-heeled investors if those investors were still willing to play ball. It sounds like they aren't and that they wanted the opportunity to slowly unload some of their shares.

The Lyft paragraph I included because it is an interesting contrast. I'm not sure why but the Lyft IPO didn't really attract my attention. I'd heard about it but considering the Uber is the Kleenex of the two, I just didn't really follow the Lyft thing. Lyft tanked even harder on their opening IPO, but that didn't really surprise me because it's an also-ran I assume and it has less backing from the big guys who would be in a position to manipulate these things. Also the main reason that I'm not too enthusiastic about Uber is there interest in self-driving cars which I still think is a loser.

Everything I read pre-ipo suggested that Uber wasn't going to tank the way lift did because
A) they priced it modestly. That sounded reasonable to me.
B) there's supposedly value in their self-driving technology. This I don't buy. Their expertise is what the stole from Alphaber to (three?) years ago. The engineer that they hired away from alphabet is only going to know where alphabet was with this to three years ago. I used to see both the Uber cars driving around in the waymo cars driving around. The waymo cars seem to have a much smarter plan for figuring things out. Near as I can tell they only operate in South Tempe and Chandler in a very limited area on specific pre-planned routes that they do over and over again instead of just trying to make the jump immediately to being a taxi. And if waymo who is dumped way more money into this still is doing such a limited area it suggests to me that this is just not feasible on a large scale. Never mind the fact that Google has way more money to throw out the problem whenever they feel like doing so. Google is talking about building an entire city west of what's now back. Buy on the westside of the White Tanks Mountain. This master plan Community. I could easily see where you got sensors in the road and I don't know but maybe you're just going to even forbid personal cars you have to come and go using Google cars in some sort of advanced Levittown. I could see that possibly working I don't know if that's a money maker or not but at least it sounds like it's technologically feasible.
C)Ubereats is supposed to be making money. I've scratched my head at that one a little bit and it's hard for me to see anecdotally in my travels where that is actually being used. Maybe it's being used more than I think. When I'm in various restaurants that are the target market for Uber Eats Postmates and doordash every once in awhile I see some guy come to the front of the line and get a bag or a box with food and take off. So I know it's a thing but it doesn't seem like it is anything close to a significant portion of the clientele in any given restaurant so I don't know how all that works but it just doesn't seem like it's any kind of huge market share. Drive-thrus are already a thing and you can get in your pajamas go through the drive-thru get some food and go home I suppose it's probably good for drunks but I can't really picture how this is some huge Market that's going to repay billions and billions of dollars that they've already lost. If it's such a great idea and it's going to make them so much money to offset all the other losses why not just dump the whole idea that over started with and only do pizza guy delivery or whatever if it's such a running wonderful idea. That seemed pretty weak. I have no idea where I read it but there was something interesting I read about Uber Eats and pop-up restaurants. Apparently there are restaurants that make food type A that are currently being approached by Uber Eats to say hey in your neighborhood we need food type B can you go ahead and use your commercial kitchen for our drivers to pick up such and such menu so they have these virtual restaurants that don't exist except for Uber Eats. That seems like a pretty interesting idea. That's sort of like the Amazon of food in the sense you don't need a building that looks good from the outside because you aren't having your customers ever see your building so that might be a viable but that's a completely different idea.

 

[RoryN]

Down 669 right now

 

[Que]

Why has Rory started displaying an interest in the market the he quite obviously knows nothing about again?

We know why!

Down 669 right now

Get working on America's obituary; I am sure you don't want to be embarrassingly scooped by Busy.

Again.

 

[bbx56]

I like

CLF

and

SUM


Should do very well, if DUMZ n Trump agree on infrastructure

Even if they dont, they both do well

 

[Biggs_Darklighter]

I got a buddy who works for Dollar General. He said to buy them up. Probably illegal so I'm not cuz the last thing I need are feds at my door but sounds like a strong opportunity. So ya know, go for it.

 

[Que]

I got a buddy who works for Dollar General. He said to buy them up. Probably illegal so I'm not cuz the last thing I need are feds at my door but sounds like a strong opportunity. So ya know, go for it.

Because I used to drive from the huge Phoenix metropolitan area either down through Tucson or straight across through Globe to the New Mexico border I pass through all these little towns and they all had either a Family Dollar or a Dollar General. At some point Dollar General bought out Family Dollar so now in that Niche there's no competition really other than Dollar Tree.

It's kind of odd in some markets were both were doing well they leave Family Dollar in Dollar General in tact in other places they close Family Dollar in some places they close Dollar General.

Just barely related but interesting I was talking construction with a guy who does TI's stennett improvements and his current round of assignments is converting close Dollar General or Family Dollar stores to Dollar Tree.

I always thought that the merchandise in Dollar Tree looks cheaper than Family Dollar or Dollar General which is saying something.

There seems to be a life cycle do these things they open them up for I think it's like 60 or $80,000 they will open you one anywhere you want it. They build it they stock at, Turn-Key business. It seems like within about 5 years any particular location seems to be out of business and another one pops up, and what they hope is a better location.

Somehow it seems like this might be one of those Ponzi schemes but I don't know people do shop there and I've never seen one that wasn't reasonably busy. When you look at the fundamentals you're not actually getting a very good bye so it's kind of a good fit with the alcohol cigarette and lottery ticket crowd.

I've never read any good discussion about the fundamentals of the business itself. I gather the company makes money on franchise fees but seems like those are so small that it's not much so they must make money on the distribution side of things.

I forget the guy because I read him like 30 35 years ago in Money Magazine but he invested in Bath and body works, I think...his reason for doing so is he was sitting on a bench waiting for his wife and daughter to do some shopping nearby and he was watching the foot traffic in and out of that place and he decided it was a good buy based on the enthusiasm that he was seeing from their Shoppers. He did well on the

Given that I'm assuming your friend is not CEO or in charge of financials that the general public doesn't see even if he fed you inside information that was his store specific and why he thinks it's a goodbye it still would not be insider trading. You'd have to have material information that's not available to the general public. And I'm assuming your guy doesn't have any of that.

Even like a district manager that could tell the direction that the stores were going in a particular quarter and maybe tip you off would be iffy but probably okay because that's a question of a general Trend and it's going to be somewhat hobbled by the fact that you're only looking at one small piece of the puzzle. It's also not something unavailable the general public in the sense that anybody could walk up to any store manager and say hey how's it going?

 

[Biggs_Darklighter]

Because I used to drive from the huge Phoenix metropolitan area either down through Tucson or straight across through Globe to the New Mexico border I pass through all these little towns and they all had either a Family Dollar or a Dollar General. At some point Dollar General bought out Family Dollar so now in that Niche there's no competition really other than Dollar Tree.

It's kind of odd in some markets were both were doing well they leave Family Dollar in Dollar General in tact in other places they close Family Dollar in some places they close Dollar General.

Just barely related but interesting I was talking construction with a guy who does TI's stennett improvements and his current round of assignments is converting close Dollar General or Family Dollar stores to Dollar Tree.

I always thought that the merchandise in Dollar Tree looks cheaper than Family Dollar or Dollar General which is saying something.

There seems to be a life cycle do these things they open them up for I think it's like 60 or $80,000 they will open you one anywhere you want it. They build it they stock at, Turn-Key business. It seems like within about 5 years any particular location seems to be out of business and another one pops up, and what they hope is a better location.

Somehow it seems like this might be one of those Ponzi schemes but I don't know people do shop there and I've never seen one that wasn't reasonably busy. When you look at the fundamentals you're not actually getting a very good bye so it's kind of a good fit with the alcohol cigarette and lottery ticket crowd.

I've never read any good discussion about the fundamentals of the business itself. I gather the company makes money on franchise fees but seems like those are so small that it's not much so they must make money on the distribution side of things.

I forget the guy because I read him like 30 35 years ago in Money Magazine but he invested in Bath and body works, I think...his reason for doing so is he was sitting on a bench waiting for his wife and daughter to do some shopping nearby and he was watching the foot traffic in and out of that place and he decided it was a good buy based on the enthusiasm that he was seeing from their Shoppers. He did well on the

Given that I'm assuming your friend is not CEO or in charge of financials that the general public doesn't see even if he fed you inside information that was his store specific and why he thinks it's a goodbye it still would not be insider trading. You'd have to have material information that's not available to the general public. And I'm assuming your guy doesn't have any of that.

Even like a district manager that could tell the direction that the stores were going in a particular quarter and maybe tip you off would be iffy but probably okay because that's a question of a general Trend and it's going to be somewhat hobbled by the fact that you're only looking at one small piece of the puzzle. It's also not something unavailable the general public in the sense that anybody could walk up to any store manager and say hey how's it going?

There's so much wrong in that post it's just wow.

 

[juttjaw]

I got a buddy who works for Dollar General. He said to buy them up. Probably illegal so I'm not cuz the last thing I need are feds at my door but sounds like a strong opportunity. So ya know, go for it.

5Below is going to put them all out of business! Higher end crap. You feel as if you just came from Shopko and walked into a Yonkers...

Only for crap.

And candy.

 

[Luk]

5Below is going to put them all out of business! Higher end crap. You feel as if you just came from Shopko and walked into a Yonkers...

Only for crap.

And candy.

We just got one, I'm not impressed.

 

[Que]

There's so much wrong in that post it's just wow.

~shug~

Can't all be winners like the "short Uber" post that moneybags Adre dismissed.

5Below is going to put them all out of business! Higher end crap. You feel as if you just came from Shopko and walked into a Yonkers...

Only for crap.

And candy.

No idea who any of them are. We might have a 5Below because the title sounds like a shop that my ex was mentioning the small one likes for crap.

She and I were talking about the fact that when we were small there were five and dimes then dollar stores now apparently there are five dollar stores eventually there will be hundred dollar stores.. For crap

 

[bbx56]

I like

CLF

and

SUM


Should do very well, if DUMZ n Trump agree on infrastructure

Even if they dont, they both do well

didya buy?

 

[bbx56]

Just tell me when the WORLD will end

I will buy

MOAR!

and...............

 

[bbx56]

Down 669 right now

so

as promised

I said

when the KNEE GROWZ show up

to tell us the world is ending

I will re-deploy


Then we have Knee Grow Rory

screaming.....THE WORLD IS ENDING

I covered my VIX long and went short

I old naked puts on stocks I wanna own

So I say

Thank You, Knee Grow Rory

YOU DUH "MAN"

 

[bbx56]

THE BUSYBODY loves the Rory

The Rory has made

THE BUSBODY tons of $$$

 

[bbx56]

I have closed by ST trade positions pre open at a profit of abut 5.18%...or $4,138

I will hold/add to my LT positions...unless they are up 8-10% in the next few daze

I thank the know Knee Grow poster, Rory for being

RIGHT

AGAIN

 

[RoryN]

This thread seems to be making deplorables particularly upset this week.

 

[bbx56]

Knee Grow Rory is so cute when he https://gifimage.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/moving-goalposts-gif-3.gif

 

[cowslinger64]

~shug~

Can't all be winners like the "short Uber" post that moneybags Adre dismissed.

How many shares of Uber did you short?

I can't imagine asking anyone without any fuckin money for advice on investing.


Btw..you spelled shrug wrong, which invalidates anything else after.

 

[BotanyBoy]

How many shares of Uber did you short?

I can't imagine asking anyone without any fuckin money for advice on investing.


Btw..you spelled shrug wrong, which invalidates anything else after.

Typos invalidate the message.....that's pretty solid Detroit logic right there LOL

 

[bbx56]

How many shares of Uber did you short?

I can't imagine asking anyone without any fuckin money for advice on investing.


Btw..you spelled shrug wrong, which invalidates anything else after.

Ebon ICKS?

 

[bbx56]

Typos invalidate the message.....that's pretty solid Detroit logic right there LOL

opps

 

[nowisthetime]

This thread seems to be making deplorables particularly upset this week.

Hell, what DOESN'T make them upset?

 

[bbx56]

This thread seems to be making deplorables particularly upset this week.

You know what, Knee Grow poster, Rory

Instead of posting STUPID SHIT

You shoulda bought what I said to buy yesterday

CLF is up 2% already

SUM is up almost 4% already

But I guess you would rather be a Knee Grow....or....invest in T Bonds where you get 3% over THIRTY YRS

 

[IrezumiKiss]

Hell, what DOESN'T make them upset?

~shug~

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxpj6grFIe1qcaomb.gif