Why 2018 might not be such an amazing election for Democrats

[TalkRadio]

(CNN) — All the signs suggest that 2018 is going to be a very good year for Democrats.

Midterm elections are historically terrible for the president's party. In 18 of the last 20 midterm elections, the president's party has lost seats. In those 18 elections, the average seat loss is 33. Those numbers are even more daunting for presidents under 50% job approval -- as Donald Trump is right now. Since 1946, the average seat loss in the House in that situation is 36 seats.

But before Democrats get too delirious about the election to come, they should read this paragraph from David Wasserman's terrific analysis of the 2018 election on FiveThirtyEight:

"Even if Democrats were to win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats representing places that Hillary Clinton won or that Trump won by less than 3 percentage points — a pretty good midterm by historical standards — they could still fall short of the House majority and lose five Senate seats."

That's absolutely stunning. And reflective of the advantages Republicans have going into 2018 -- one, in the House, built on having largely controlled the 2010 redistricting process, and the other, in the Senate, based on how great the 2006 and 2012 elections were for Democrats.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/07/politics/2018-midterms-trump/

 

[SweetCupcake]

I don't hold out much hope for the Dems in 2018, notwithstanding the traditional pick-up of the party opposite the sitting president.

This excerpt from OP is a key part of the issue of why Republicans have done so well last couple of election cycles (including Trump election): " . . .built on having largely controlled the 2010 redistricting process." We shall have to wait and see what the Supreme Court has to say on gerrymandering soon.

Further, the unprecedented voter suppression efforts undertaken and on-going by Republicans have borne a lot of fruit for the party. Now we are suffering through a secretive voter "purging" process in Republican-controlled states. In my state, they quietly purged 449,000 voters so far. This surreptitious purging seems so unAmerican and undemocratic.

 

[TalkRadio]

How Democrats suppress the vote

I don't hold out much hope for the Dems in 2018, notwithstanding the traditional pick-up of the party opposite the sitting president.

This excerpt from OP is a key part of the issue of why Republicans have done so well last couple of election cycles (including Trump election): " . . .built on having largely controlled the 2010 redistricting process." We shall have to wait and see what the Supreme Court has to say on gerrymandering soon.

Further, the unprecedented voter suppression efforts undertaken and on-going by Republicans have borne a lot of fruit for the party. Now we are suffering through a secretive voter "purging" process in Republican-controlled states. In my state, they quietly purged 449,000 voters so far. This surreptitious purging seems so unAmerican and undemocratic.

In the ongoing fight between Democrats and Republicans over election procedures like voter ID and early voting, the Democrats are supposedly the champions of higher turnout and reducing barriers to participation. But when it comes to scheduling off-cycle elections like those taking place today, the Democratic Party is the champion of voter suppression.

Earlier this year, Hillary Clinton made a speech about voting rights in which she said, “Republicans are systematically and deliberately trying to stop millions of American citizens from voting. What part of democracy are they afraid of?” For Democrats like Clinton who are apparently aghast at Republican efforts at voter suppression, today is a good day to take a look in the mirror.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-suppress-the-vote/

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Something I read earlier this morning. It parallels some things I have been saying for a while.

https://spectator.org/trumps-irrelevant-approval-rating-and-other-various-and-sundry-items/

 

[TalkRadio]

Something I read earlier this morning. It parallels some things I have been saying for a while.

https://spectator.org/trumps-irrelevant-approval-rating-and-other-various-and-sundry-items/

I love watching the Left's fixation on everything Trump does/doesn't do or says/doesn't say.

In the meantime, the Dems are destroying any chances of taking back control of the House, the Senate & the White House.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Cupcake, gerrymandering has been a hot excuse ever since the election. The problem really is a lesson in demographics as pointed out earlier this year. (I'm on my phone now, so I don't have the link at my fingertips.) But to cut to the chase, the hard Left has too many voters in too few places, places where they get to draw the districts. Furthermore, the bad assumption is that minorities vote in lockstep, but they only do in too few places. Then you throw in the tactic of abandoning the white working class as deplorable and you really do put yourself behind the eight ball if you are a Democrat.

If you are interested, I can post link s in the morning.