Who Will Be The Dark Horse?

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Ralph Nader predicts a 3rd party dark horse in the 2012 Presidential Race. He says Obama is weak and waffling and too concessionary.

So who do you suppose will run against Obama and Bob Dole?

 

[sr71plt]

Oh, I do so hope the Republicans will run then-89-year-old Bob Dole in 2012.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

SR71PLT

You know it will be someone equally worthless. Dan Quayle?

 

[sr71plt]

Maybe James B Johnson.

 

[JamesSD]

Ron Paul, perhaps?

The Republican party is on the verge of a schism. The teabaggers clearly were not happy with the choice of John McCain, but the establishment was not comfortable going with Huckabee. Sarah Palin was a bone thrown to the social conservatives as a sort of pacifier. Can that trick work twice?

It's my opinion that a silent part of the 9/12 protest was actually against the Republican party. Don't get me wrong; they hate what they percieve as socialists and non-Christians, and aren't going to vote for Obama in a million years. But those hoping for a Paul/Palin '12 ticket may not fall into line very quickly for a relative moderate like Tim Pawlenty.

One thing that is seriously underreported with regards to Obama is the people who actually voted for him are mostly happy with the job he's doing. He started out with a much higher approval rating than people who voted for him, and a lot of those he's "lost" were McCain voters who decided to give him a shot, but have since lost faith.

Realistically, our media isn't set up well to give minority candidates much of a chance. As much as I hate the guy, Ron Paul never got the coverage he deserved from FOX or CNN. It's expensive to send reporters out covering candidates, so in an extended three (or four) horse race, #3 and 4 very quickly lose out on coverage and are marginalized even more than they might be by the American public.

Barring another Ross Perot who uses his personal wealth to run a spoiler campaign, I doubt any 3rd party candidate will get enough traction to pull more than 1-2% of the popular vote or swing any electoral votes (The Green and Libertarian parties always do better in states that are "safe" for Dems/Repubs and much worse in "swing" states).

 

[sr71plt]

Sarah Palin was a bone thrown to the social conservatives as a sort of pacifier. Can that trick work twice?
.

You thought that worked the first time, did you?

Unless someone new emerges, I suspect they'll let Romney try--just to shut him up.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Maybe James B Johnson.

I'm the fascist party nominee.

 

[JamesSD]

You thought that worked the first time, did you?

Unless someone new emerges, I suspect they'll let Romney try--just to shut him up.

Palin "worked" in as much as she helped solidify the shaky Republican base that might have stayed home otherwise. McCain did well with evangelical Christians, which was not his strong point during the primaries, and she did help him some with young, conservative women.

Romney is a Mormon from a New England State where his approval ratings as governor were not good, and he would be unlikely to carry MA in a presidential election. Evangelicals (Baptists especially) don't trust Mormons, although they may be able to bury the hatchet and come together on issues like Abortion and Gay Civil Rights. I still think Tim Pawlenty has the inside track for '12, assuming he wants the shot.

 

[penandpaper]

Ron Paul, perhaps?

The Republican party is on the verge of a schism. The teabaggers clearly were not happy with the choice of John McCain, but the establishment was not comfortable going with Huckabee. Sarah Palin was a bone thrown to the social conservatives as a sort of pacifier. Can that trick work twice?

It's my opinion that a silent part of the 9/12 protest was actually against the Republican party. Don't get me wrong; they hate what they percieve as socialists and non-Christians, and aren't going to vote for Obama in a million years. But those hoping for a Paul/Palin '12 ticket may not fall into line very quickly for a relative moderate like Tim Pawlenty.

One thing that is seriously underreported with regards to Obama is the people who actually voted for him are mostly happy with the job he's doing. He started out with a much higher approval rating than people who voted for him, and a lot of those he's "lost" were McCain voters who decided to give him a shot, but have since lost faith.

Realistically, our media isn't set up well to give minority candidates much of a chance. As much as I hate the guy, Ron Paul never got the coverage he deserved from FOX or CNN. It's expensive to send reporters out covering candidates, so in an extended three (or four) horse race, #3 and 4 very quickly lose out on coverage and are marginalized even more than they might be by the American public.

Barring another Ross Perot who uses his personal wealth to run a spoiler campaign, I doubt any 3rd party candidate will get enough traction to pull more than 1-2% of the popular vote or swing any electoral votes (The Green and Libertarian parties always do better in states that are "safe" for Dems/Repubs and much worse in "swing" states).

god, I hope Ron Paul doesn't gain any more ground than what he has. The man's ideas are crazy - but maybe just crazy enough to work? No... they won't work. Especially his damn "road to Russia." What a fucking idiot.

 

[amicus]

Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi, has changed the Tort Laws in his State and reduced medical malpractice suits by over half. He also was at the forefront in his State, recovering much more rapidly than Louisiana, following the ravages of Hurrican Katrina.

I would suggest this man may play a role in National politics of the near future.

Amicus

 

[TE999]

I don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow, much less in 2012. If Obama's policies bear fruit, he's a 2 termer...if not, the Repubs better get their thumbs out and run somebody that's young, articulate, has a strong background in economics and foreign policy and not joined at the hip with the Religious Right. If they don't, Obama's in again by default.

Obama's 20-something/college student/idealistic youth base is eroding rapidly; things aren't happening fast enough for them and they're following new trends in pop culture. His far left base is both disillusioned and pissed at him for not remaking the world in eight days either.

Such is what happens when you vote not for someone, but against someone...ie: ABB: Anybody But Bush. Time will tell if these grandiose plans of Obama's reach fruition, but the Repubs better have some practical ones of their own, or they're the minority party until 2016.

We better have flying cars by then...and solar powered bicycles.

 

[amicus]

This 'healthcare' fight in Congress is getting down and dirty, to steal a phrase. There is talk of the Nuclear Option, there is also talk of Republicans continually offering amendments, effectively stalling any action by the Senate.

There is a new flap; a 'gag order' issued by the Obama administration to stop Insurance Companies from commenting on the healthcare plan. Think I will search that and see if I can find some red meat for the crowd here...

Amicus

 

[JamesSD]

Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi, has changed the Tort Laws in his State and reduced medical malpractice suits by over half. He also was at the forefront in his State, recovering much more rapidly than Louisiana, following the ravages of Hurrican Katrina.

I would suggest this man may play a role in National politics of the near future.

Mr. Barbour definitely fits the "Dark Horse" criteria.

He's a deep southerner with strong ties to the tobacco industry, and basically owns a lobbying firm. He's also got a bad name (Haley has become a girl's name), and is fat. That's a pretty long road to hoe in national politics.


TE999: I generally agree with your comments, although I'd say most young people still have positive views on Obama. They may not be the ones showing up to Town Hall meetings, but that doesn't mean they won't be successfully rallied to re-elect their guy in '12.

 

[DesertPirate]

Pawlenty, Huckabee, and for the dark horse? Jindal from Louisiana.