When the inmates take over the asylum (political)

[Colleen Thomas]

Has anyone been paying attention to the Palestinian elections? Hammas, those fine people who have brought you suicide bombings all over Israel, just won a sweping victory and will form a government.

Hamaas is still clasified a terrorist organization by the Us and EU. Israel has said it categorically will not negotiate with them, not surprising since their stated goal is the destruction of the Jewish state.

It creates a vey interesting policy bind for the West. We have pushed for democracy in the Mid east, but now, democratic elections have brough terrorists to power.

 

[Evil Alpaca]

Has anyone been paying attention to the Palestinian elections? Hammas, those fine people who have brought you suicide bombings all over Israel, just won a sweping victory and will form a government.

Hamaas is still clasified a terrorist organization by the Us and EU. Israel has said it categorically will not negotiate with them, not surprising since their stated goal is the destruction of the Jewish state.

It creates a vey interesting policy bind for the West. We have pushed for democracy in the Mid east, but now, democratic elections have brough terrorists to power.

Democracy is a wonderful thing for the federal government . . . as long as the OTHER democracy agreed with them in the first place on all the major issues.

We have terrorists in charge of Palestine and while the leader of Israel is in a highly weakened state. Who thinks this is going to end well?

 

[rgraham666]

I saw.

Should be interesting.

Not sure if Hamas could hold itself together long in this circumstance.

Some will undoubtedly want to moderate their stance and some will be 'Kill all Israelis now!'

A good chance, in my opinion, they may start fighting over the spoils almost immediately.

 

[TheEarl]

Has anyone been paying attention to the Palestinian elections? Hammas, those fine people who have brought you suicide bombings all over Israel, just won a sweping victory and will form a government.

Hamaas is still clasified a terrorist organization by the Us and EU. Israel has said it categorically will not negotiate with them, not surprising since their stated goal is the destruction of the Jewish state.

It creates a vey interesting policy bind for the West. We have pushed for democracy in the Mid east, but now, democratic elections have brough terrorists to power.

What I find very interesting as well is that a large proportion of the voters for Hamas appear to be absolutely appalled at the fact that their votes have brought Hamas to power. If a standard poll is taken, then Fatah, the party of the late Yasser Arafat, is far, far more popular. However, they're known explicitly for corruption and complete inefficiency, resulting in debacles more extreme than the Millenium Dome.

So, therefore Hamas has effectively got elected on a protest vote by people who only voted that way because they had no idea that they stood any chance of actually getting in. And a lot of the people who genuinely wanted them in, wanted them in for an anti-corruption ticket. The fact that they're anti-Israel helped, I'm sure, but that's not necessarily why they're in power.


Onto the actual outcomes. I'm quietly optimistic as regards to foreign policy. Hamas is under huge presure to renounce violence to allow Palestine to exist in the international community. If they don't, then it'll be them and Iran vs the world. America are looking for any excuse to invade Iran and Israel are looking for any excuse to invade more of Palestine. To be frank, they can't afford to piss the world at large off. They can barely even afford to piss Israel off - Palestien is in no state for a war. They could afford to do it as a terrorist group, because they couldn't be held responsible. But as the representatives of that country, they have to act properly, or at least give the impression. The only foreign policy power they get from their election, they lose if they fail to act appropriately. However, if they do renounce violence, then I expect a 'Real Hamas' splinter group within the day.

The internal affairs worry me more and that's mainly about women's rights. Hamas aren't keen on them. However, it appears that a lot of women in Palestine are and, more's to the point, would be willing to stand up if they were removed. There have been promises of a 'women's uprising' if laws are passed to make the chador and veil mandatory, which might actually be worth it if it could set an example to other Middle Eastern countries.

Basically, all will wait to see whether Hamas wish to act like fuckwits. The jury is out...

The Earl

 

[TheEarl]

Who thinks this is going to end well?

Well me, apparently. Why is there currently peace in Northern Ireland? Because the IRA were convinced that the democratic process might actually hear their views.

This will be the only way that a solution can be reached, bar one side completely wiping the other out.

The Earl

 

[imalickin]

Has anyone been paying attention to the Palestinian elections? Hammas, those fine people who have brought you suicide bombings all over Israel, just won a sweping victory and will form a government.

Hamaas is still clasified a terrorist organization by the Us and EU. Israel has said it categorically will not negotiate with them, not surprising since their stated goal is the destruction of the Jewish state.

It creates a vey interesting policy bind for the West. We have pushed for democracy in the Mid east, but now, democratic elections have brough terrorists to power.

well it's not like it never happened before.

we will have to wait to see if there are ever anymore elections!

 

[Selena_Kitt]

Well me, apparently. Why is there currently peace in Northern Ireland? Because the IRA were convinced that the democratic process might actually hear their views.

I'm actually with you on this one, Earl...

 

[Liar]

Wasn't Arafat a violent guy once too?

My guess is Hamas will smarten up. At least enough to look legit. Hopefully fast enough to not cause havoc during the transition. I doubt they will acknowledge Israel as such right away. Tere will be harsher rhethorics and a negotiation stalemate, but I suspect that that's about it. Nobody wants to truly stick another burning fuse into the powder keg.

Question is what that will do to Hamas. Earl is most likely right about the emergence of a breakout group, possibly breaking the cease fire.

Well, I'll be watching.

 

[TheEarl]

Israel worries me more. Sharon was/is a vitriolic, rabidly right-wing bugger, but the chances are that his successor will be an even more vitriolic and rabidly right-wing bugger. They have stated categorically that they will never ever speak to Hamas, no matter what happens. This can be looked at as a fair perspective, considering just how many genocidal fuckwitteries can be attributed to that group of genocidal fuckwits, but brings nothing to the debating table.

If Israel have said openly that they will not negotiate, they won't talk and the only way the situation might possibly change is things getting worse for the Palestinans, not better, what do you think Hamas's view of going about things the democratic way will be? Do you think they'll believe that politics is an adequate way of getting their viewpoint across?

If Israel actually want peace (which is a debateable point, depending on the new leader), then they must be prepared to at least consider talking. Certainly not until Hamas have renounced violence and called a complete cease-fire, but there'll be no chance of peace without a carrot held out in front.

The Earl

 

[Huckleman2000]

Israel worries me more. ...
If Israel actually want peace (which is a debateable point, depending on the new leader), then they must be prepared to at least consider talking. Certainly not until Hamas have renounced violence and called a complete cease-fire, but there'll be no chance of peace without a carrot held out in front.

The Earl

I think Israel can't do anything but renounce Hamas publicly, at this point. To do anything else would be conceding something, while getting nothing in return. Perhaps if Hamas modifies it's stand, vis-a-vis the destruction of Israel, then there would be an opportunity to begin a dialogue.

"We refuse to negotiate!" is sometimes the opening position in a negotiation.

 

[Colleen Thomas]

Israel worries me more. Sharon was/is a vitriolic, rabidly right-wing bugger, but the chances are that his successor will be an even more vitriolic and rabidly right-wing bugger. They have stated categorically that they will never ever speak to Hamas, no matter what happens. This can be looked at as a fair perspective, considering just how many genocidal fuckwitteries can be attributed to that group of genocidal fuckwits, but brings nothing to the debating table.

If Israel have said openly that they will not negotiate, they won't talk and the only way the situation might possibly change is things getting worse for the Palestinans, not better, what do you think Hamas's view of going about things the democratic way will be? Do you think they'll believe that politics is an adequate way of getting their viewpoint across?

If Israel actually want peace (which is a debateable point, depending on the new leader), then they must be prepared to at least consider talking. Certainly not until Hamas have renounced violence and called a complete cease-fire, but there'll be no chance of peace without a carrot held out in front.

The Earl

Frankly, I think Israel will have a hell of time resisiting the temptation to wait till the parliment convenes and drop in a few hellfire missiles to celebrate. I know I would.

There were a lot of doves in Israel, but I think they just lost stock faster than a dot com during a crash. It's one thing to urge peaceful setlement with Palestinians, another to come out for negotiating with Hammas. They are too bloody, too xompletely, unrealistically, fucked in the head to trust.

To my mind, the populace just voted in a guarente that they will see the worst possible scenario. At this point, asking Israel to negotiate with the Palestinains is not a lot differnt than asking the world Jewish congress to negotiate with the SS.

 

[Evil Alpaca]

Israel worries me more. Sharon was/is a vitriolic, rabidly right-wing bugger, but the chances are that his successor will be an even more vitriolic and rabidly right-wing bugger. They have stated categorically that they will never ever speak to Hamas, no matter what happens. This can be looked at as a fair perspective, considering just how many genocidal fuckwitteries can be attributed to that group of genocidal fuckwits, but brings nothing to the debating table.

If Israel have said openly that they will not negotiate, they won't talk and the only way the situation might possibly change is things getting worse for the Palestinans, not better, what do you think Hamas's view of going about things the democratic way will be? Do you think they'll believe that politics is an adequate way of getting their viewpoint across?

If Israel actually want peace (which is a debateable point, depending on the new leader), then they must be prepared to at least consider talking. Certainly not until Hamas have renounced violence and called a complete cease-fire, but there'll be no chance of peace without a carrot held out in front.

The Earl

I remember that they were looking at possible successors to Sharon should his health worsen and he is unable to continued, for and one of them (the leading candidate), his stance is definitively more conservative.

I guess I'm in the minority then. While I would love for Hamas to be serious in their proposed new attitude, I just can't shake the "leopard" and his "spots" analogy. We'll just have to wait and see.

 

[Huckleman2000]

I remember that they were looking at possible successors to Sharon should his health worsen and he is unable to continued, for and one of them (the leading candidate), his stance is definitively more conservative.

I guess I'm in the minority then. While I would love for Hamas to be serious in their proposed new attitude, I just can't shake the "leopard" and his "spots" analogy. We'll just have to wait and see.

I read one analysis that went, more or less, along these lines:
Hamas was voted in on a protest vote, against corruption and cronyism. And they do have some support because of the work they do for the poor, so the Palestinians themselves will keep them so busy filling potholes and that sort of thing that it will be difficult for them to carry on the violence. It's one thing to lob hand grenades from outside the corridors of power, quite another to try and achieve something from within them.

 

[Colleen Thomas]

I think Israel can't do anything but renounce Hamas publicly, at this point. To do anything else would be conceding something, while getting nothing in return. Perhaps if Hamas modifies it's stand, vis-a-vis the destruction of Israel, then there would be an opportunity to begin a dialogue.

"We refuse to negotiate!" is sometimes the opening position in a negotiation.

The only dialogue Hammas understands is Boom. Maybe an Allah akbar in their before they trip the fuse. You aren't talking about the IRA here. I refuse to negotiate is probably the farthest along the line of detante israel is willing to go.

 

[BlackShanglan]

Well, there's this at least. The Palestinians have shown that they're willing to chuck out a government that won't listen to them. If (one prays) peace is of some value to them, that may persuade Hamas to change or risk the same wave of anger that swept them in, sweeping them out again.

 

[Colleen Thomas]

I read one analysis that went, more or less, along these lines:
Hamas was voted in on a protest vote, against corruption and cronyism. And they do have some support because of the work they do for the poor, so the Palestinians themselves will keep them so busy filling potholes and that sort of thing that it will be difficult for them to carry on the violence. It's one thing to lob hand grenades from outside the corridors of power, quite another to try and achieve something from within them.

I read a similar analysis from a Lebonese scholar. I'm inclined to believe the vote, protest or not, is only going to encourage them to be even more militant. If a few booms got them in, it will stand to reason a few more will keep them there. Stirring up some trouble on the borders is an age old tactic to unite a populace and to cover up domestic screw ups.

I find it hard to believe a groups, born, bred and innured to violence is going to start looking for another way to deal with problems.

 

[TheEarl]

Frankly, I think Israel will have a hell of time resisiting the temptation to wait till the parliment convenes and drop in a few hellfire missiles to celebrate. I know I would.

There were a lot of doves in Israel, but I think they just lost stock faster than a dot com during a crash. It's one thing to urge peaceful setlement with Palestinians, another to come out for negotiating with Hammas. They are too bloody, too xompletely, unrealistically, fucked in the head to trust.

To my mind, the populace just voted in a guarente that they will see the worst possible scenario. At this point, asking Israel to negotiate with the Palestinains is not a lot differnt than asking the world Jewish congress to negotiate with the SS.

To be honest, a government of Hamas and the terrorist group of Hamas are different entities altogether. There are things you can do as a terrorist group that you cannot as a government. Hamas may be fucked in the head, but they are also human. And humans want their point of view to reign supreme. The only way to do that is compromise and I think they will soften. After a long bloody time of course, but they will have to. Again, look at the IRA and Sinn Fein (the only other comparable situation).

Don't forget that Israel aren't exactly blameless in the history between the two countries. Ariel Sharon would be tried for war crimes under any other circumstances. There's been no small share of atrocities on either side and I won't be willing to drop any chance of peace by "dropping in a few hellfire missiles to celebrate" on a matter of principle. If Hamas refuse to renounce violence, then the situation will change, obvious, but right now, it's a matter of principle alone.

The Earl

 

[BlackShanglan]

Again, look at the IRA and Sinn Fein (the only other comparable situation).

Other than the people with whom they are negotiating.

 

[TheEarl]

The only dialogue Hammas understands is Boom. Maybe an Allah akbar in their before they trip the fuse. You aren't talking about the IRA here. I refuse to negotiate is probably the farthest along the line of detante israel is willing to go.

That's not particularly balanced of you. The group are genocidal fuckwits, but that group is a terrorist organisation. This is a government. The fact that it may contain the same people is irrelevant - it will, by necessity, act in a different manner, even if only marginally.

Saying that they're incapable of any kind of moderation denies any human instinct. They'll want to win and, if the only way to win is though the peacetable, then that's where they'll go.

Like I said, plenty of past atrocities to go around.

The Earl

 

[TheEarl]

Other than the people with whom they are negotiating.

True, but, as you have pointed out before, the UVF have never come to the debating table as directly affiliated to a political party. Mainly cause they're a bunch of thugs. They appear to be dropping away as their support fails. Which is the best thing I can imagine.

The Earl

 

[BlackShanglan]

True, but, as you have pointed out before, the UVF have never come to the debating table as directly affiliated to a political party. Mainly cause they're a bunch of thugs. They appear to be dropping away as their support fails. Which is the best thing I can imagine.

The Earl

Yes, but the parties at the debating table have friends in low places as well.

 

[TheEarl]

I find it hard to believe a groups, born, bred and innured to violence is going to start looking for another way to deal with problems.

Where has the violence got them in terms of their problems with Israel? It's the cease fires and peace treaties that have got their land back. The explosions have just brought tanks rolling in.

If they learn that negotiation might get them what they want...

The Earl

 

[Colleen Thomas]

To be honest, a government of Hamas and the terrorist group of Hamas are different entities altogether. There are things you can do as a terrorist group that you cannot as a government. Hamas may be fucked in the head, but they are also human. And humans want their point of view to reign supreme. The only way to do that is compromise and I think they will soften. After a long bloody time of course, but they will have to. Again, look at the IRA and Sinn Fein (the only other comparable situation).

Don't forget that Israel aren't exactly blameless in the history between the two countries. Ariel Sharon would be tried for war crimes under any other circumstances. There's been no small share of atrocities on either side and I won't be willing to drop any chance of peace by "dropping in a few hellfire missiles to celebrate" on a matter of principle. If Hamas refuse to renounce violence, then the situation will change, obvious, but right now, it's a matter of principle alone.

The Earl

Hammas & the IRA are different critters Earl. The IRA made a concious move away from killing people, because they saw it was counter productive. They still blew things up, but they started calling in warnings a lot of warnings. They realized photos of dead Brits splashed all over the news papers were stiffening the resolve of Englishmen, not weakening it. they just made it too damn expensive to worry with them.

Hamaas isn't at all of the conviction not killing jews is the wy to go. They operate more on the Al Q lines then the Ira lines. they go for the big body counts.

Basically, the IRA became media savvy. They realized their war would be a PR war and waged it accordingly. Like AQ, Hammas isn't concerned with what the world thinks. They know pretty well there won't be a swing towards their goal in world opinion. Theirs is a war for keeps and they play for keeps.

 

[Colleen Thomas]

Where has the violence got them in terms of their problems with Israel? It's the cease fires and peace treaties that have got their land back. The explosions have just brought tanks rolling in.

If they learn that negotiation might get them what they want...

The Earl

Apparntly, the violence just got them elected to power. Yo umight see this as a protest vote, outsiders might, but I've read the statements of militant islamacists, like the Arab brotherhood and all they see is vindication of their methods and thedesire of all Arabs to be islamacists.

Maybe Hammas is a lot more savvy than their counterparts, but I haven't seen anything to m ake me believe they are.

 

[TheEarl]

Basically, the IRA became media savvy. They realized their war would be a PR war and waged it accordingly. Like AQ, Hammas isn't concerned with what the world thinks. They know pretty well there won't be a swing towards their goal in world opinion. Theirs is a war for keeps and they play for keeps.

But they know that their explosions don't gain them anything. At all. From past experience, all their suicide bombs have gained them is a slap-down from the very well-stocked Israeli army. The bombs aren't attempts at changing the way of the world, they're revenge and punishment.

If they're offered a way to change the world in exchange for losing the violence, then smart money says they take it. They want freedom and rights and a completely independent Palestine more than they want to fruitlessly punish Israel.

The Earl