What can cause a sharp drop in readers for a new chapter?

[SimonDoom]

Shrug. I have a 100,000 word novel over seventeen chapters. It starts out with a clearly identified prologue. Views drop by half for the second chapter and half again for the third. Then there's a gradual decline to the last chapter, but the overall vote count for all but the first two chapters is almost exactly the same, and the overall chapter score is pretty much the same.

I have a 27 chapter shaggy dog story that follows the same pattern - although its chapter scores range from some of my highest to, for a very long time, my lowest (it would appear even Erotic Horror stalwarts scream in terror at the idea of GM incest - what, they've never seen their dad's cock?)

It's obvious to me that the number of Views for those last chapters represents a fair count of those that read the whole thing. Why on earth else would readers go to the last chapter and vote, if they've not just read the thing? That's so bloody obvious to me, I don't need any other explanation.

What Is inexplicable to me is the Read/Vote ratio for every chapter in both stories is much the same (1:100), even the first two with much higher Views. Why on earth are people voting if they have no intention of reading any further? That makes less sense than your argument, to me.

You said "read:vote" ratio. You mean "view:vote" ratio, correct? There is no number for reads.

Are you saying that for your 27 chapter story the view:vote ratio remains consistent for all chapters, or roughly consistent?

If that's so, then it's totally illogical to conclude that the number of views approximates the number of actual reads for late chapters. You've got that idea in your head, but there's no evidence to support it. It makes no sense at all to assume that, if what you are saying about view:vote ratios is true, because it requires believing that for late chapters the willingness of readers to vote on the story dramatically lessens. Why would it? That math doesn't work.

This is what I speculate goes on: I think the view to read ratio is bigger than people think it is. Only a fraction of people who click on a story and create a "view" actually read the story. This is true of me, for instance. I also think Lit readers, like Internet consumers generally, are extremely lazy and are responsive to even the slightest bit of inconvenience. I think readers come and go. Somebody may read your chapter 1 story and vote on it, and then they may go on vacation for the next month and read nothing. They see EB's Story About Adam Chapter 20 and they click on it rather than starting at Chapter 1 because they're lazy. They want a one-off and they don't care if it has "chapter 20" at the end of it. I think this describes a lot of Lit reader activity.

All this is speculation, except there is some empirical support for my belief that the "effort elasticity" for Internet consumer demand is very high, and the view:vote ratio numbers don't support the idea that the views of late chapters approximate actual reads.

 

[ElectricBlue]

You said "read:vote" ratio. You mean "view:vote" ratio, correct? There is no number for reads.

Are you saying that for your 27 chapter story the view:vote ratio remains consistent for all chapters, or roughly consistent?

Sorry, yes, the Vote per View ratio.

Pretty much consistent yes - the overall decline in Views (Ch.3 through to the end) is ten, fifteen percent overall, and the number of Votes, likewise. Ups and downs, chapter by chapter, but the same trends. 1:100.

Remember, mine are not huge numbers incest things, one is a much lower read mythos novel, the other EH. But even so, the View/Vote ratio for the first chapters is much the same as for the whole thing (which is the behaviour I don't understand).

If that's so, then it's totally illogical to conclude that the number of views approximates the number of actual reads for late chapters. You've got that idea in your head, but there's no evidence to support it. It makes no sense at all to assume that, if what you are saying about view:vote ratios is true, because it requires believing that for late chapters the willingness of readers to vote on the story dramatically lessens. Why would it? That math doesn't work.

What the fuck else are people doing in those later chapters? They're viewing and voting at the same rate and ratio.

It makes no sense to me to use any other numbers when the simplest explanation suffices - they're viewing it because they're reading it. To me, chapter three represents the major "click out" drop off factor of any story - once they make it to Ch.3, they're in for the duration regardless how they vote.

The maths is self evident to me - if I plot the numbers, they're all following the same curve. I don't understand why people vote for Ch.1 but don't even read chapter two, let alone chapter three, but my rule of thumb for years has been 1:100, based on all my submissions.

Remember again, this thing has been published for three years now. It's not a new story, it's not randoms looking at a New List clicking in (which is what your argument is all about). It's people looking at my back catalogue, checking into another story, thinking, nah, I don't like this Arthurian stuff, checking out. But oddly, still voting on Chapter One, but not reading the rest.

The 27 chapter story is eight years old, but it's shown the same trends over all that time.

This is what I speculate goes on: I think the view to read ratio is bigger than people think it is. Only a fraction of people who click on a story and create a "view" actually read the story. This is true of me, for instance. I also think Lit readers, like Internet consumers generally, are extremely lazy and are responsive to even the slightest bit of inconvenience. I think readers come and go. Somebody may read your chapter 1 story and vote on it, and then they may go on vacation for the next month and read nothing. They see EB's Story About Adam Chapter 20 and they click on it rather than starting at Chapter 1 because they're lazy. They want a one-off and they don't care if it has "chapter 20" at the end of it. I think this describes a lot of Lit reader activity.

In your categories of choice, maybe. I don't see the same behaviour in my different world. My belief is reinforced the older these stories get - as I say, these are not New List stories, these are people finding them in my back catalogue.

But here, you're saying the same thing as me. I see a twenty per cent "I've read this" story factor, but I base my belief on my "last chapter stats" - from my longer pieces, not just the two I've cited. You posit similar behaviour but from much faster moving, higher turnover categories, using different criteria.

The difference it seems to me, is that you seem to be basing your argument on numbers earned quickly in the first months or so, whereas I'm seeing the same patterns across my whole back catalogue, where the current Views are two, three times higher than those first break-out months.

All this is speculation, except there is some empirical support for my belief that the "effort elasticity" for Internet consumer demand is very high, and the view:vote ratio numbers don't support the idea that the views of late chapters approximate actual reads.

What can I say? My Vote/View numbers are consistent across these stories, so to me, that's a reader behaviour.

And I also keep saying, why else are people clicking into chapters 3 -27 if they're not reading those chapters? Your explanation might have some validity for New List behaviour, but I can't see the relevance for Old List.
Readers are in EB's story list because they've read something recent, and have come looking. Why else would these old stories be moving at all?