Unemployment statisics

[Ramone45]

I think they are meaningless without the proper context, as are all statistics. The number of people in the workforce is the lowest in 35 years. To me, that is a very alarming number. Plus the fact that although we are adding jobs, they are crappy jobs, and payroll is remaining flat or declining. The economy is still very bad.

 

[Boxlicker101]

I think they are meaningless without the proper context, as are all statistics. The number of people in the workforce is the lowest in 35 years. To me, that is a very alarming number. Plus the fact that although we are adding jobs, they are crappy jobs, and payroll is remaining flat or declining. The economy is still very bad.

I read about unemployment stats and wonder sometimes abut youth unemployment. What does that mean? When I was in high school, I picked jp a few bucks setting pins in a local bowling alley or mowing lawns or shoveling sidewalks. If somebody had asked if I was unemployed, I probably would have said I was a high school student, which was true, but I did not consider myself to be unemployed.

 

[BoyNextDoor]

I just think it is funny that they were the hallmark of President Obama's failed economic policies from 2008 to 2014, however now they are a meaningless statistic.

Whatever. The economy is just starting to heat up despite 7 years of GOP stalling on every bill that could have driven growth, destabilizing the markets with wild efforts to defund every social program, ridiculous defense spending, 40+ votes and lawsuits against the ACA, and threats to shutdown the government.

 

[Bramblethorn]

I read about unemployment stats and wonder sometimes abut youth unemployment. What does that mean? When I was in high school, I picked jp a few bucks setting pins in a local bowling alley or mowing lawns or shoveling sidewalks. If somebody had asked if I was unemployed, I probably would have said I was a high school student, which was true, but I did not consider myself to be unemployed.

Standard definition of unemployment is:
- above a certain age (usually 16)
- not working (paid or self-employed)
- would have been available for work during the reference period (typically something like "last two weeks")
- seeking work

ILO standard: http://laborsta.ilo.org/applv8/data/c3e.html

So: if you were getting paid to mow a lawn, you'd be counted as "employed". If you weren't getting paid but were actively looking for work - sticking up flyers, asking people if they needed lawns mowed, etc - you'd be "unemployed". If you weren't getting paid and weren't looking, just waiting for somebody to offer work, you're "not in labor force" (NILF).

Unemployment rate = unemployed/(employed + unemployed), so NILFs don't count towards the rate. NILF can mean a lot of different things - people who are happily retired, studying and not looking for work, unable to work, and also people who want a job but have given up looking (aka "hidden unemployed").

It's a convenient standard but it has its limitations, which is why you'll also see economists looking at things like under-employment and "hours worked" numbers.

 

[Sean Renaud]

I think they are meaningless without the proper context, as are all statistics. The number of people in the workforce is the lowest in 35 years. To me, that is a very alarming number. Plus the fact that although we are adding jobs, they are crappy jobs, and payroll is remaining flat or declining. The economy is still very bad.

It's true, the stats are meaningless in a vacuum. The number of people in the workforce is the lowest in 35 years and will probably continue to decline for most of a decade saving something radical coming along and changing the whole game. Damn Baby boomers! Not to mention you didn't provide the numbers and I'm too lazy to look them up.

As for payrole remaining flat it's done that since Reagan hobbled the unions and we stopped routinely raising the minimum wage. We used to do it every few years pretty much without even stopping to think about it. We haven't and the rest of us have failed to keep pace because as they say a rising tide raises a all ships but thanks to team Reagan the tide isn't rising anymore.

I read about unemployment stats and wonder sometimes abut youth unemployment. What does that mean? When I was in high school, I picked jp a few bucks setting pins in a local bowling alley or mowing lawns or shoveling sidewalks. If somebody had asked if I was unemployed, I probably would have said I was a high school student, which was true, but I did not consider myself to be unemployed.

High school unemployment is pretty high, it's not that hard to look up the stats, if I wasn't in a rush I'd bring up the numbers for you and maybe I will when I get back if nobody else has.

You were unemployed though they probably wouldn't have counted you as such. Some of this depends entirely on how old you are and I have no honest clue on it. It might be interesting to look up.

Standard definition of unemployment is:
- above a certain age (usually 16)
- not working (paid or self-employed)
- would have been available for work during the reference period (typically something like "last two weeks")
- seeking work

ILO standard: http://laborsta.ilo.org/applv8/data/c3e.html

So: if you were getting paid to mow a lawn, you'd be counted as "employed". If you weren't getting paid but were actively looking for work - sticking up flyers, asking people if they needed lawns mowed, etc - you'd be "unemployed". If you weren't getting paid and weren't looking, just waiting for somebody to offer work, you're "not in labor force" (NILF).

Unemployment rate = unemployed/(employed + unemployed), so NILFs don't count towards the rate. NILF can mean a lot of different things - people who are happily retired, studying and not looking for work, unable to work, and also people who want a job but have given up looking (aka "hidden unemployed").

It's a convenient standard but it has its limitations, which is why you'll also see economists looking at things like under-employment and "hours worked" numbers.

Except most people who are mowing lawns aren't reporting taxes and despite that definition I don't think they would be counted, legally speaking, as employed if nobody is reporting them. I could be wrong however.

 

[Boxlicker101]

I just think it is funny that they were the hallmark of President Obama's failed economic policies from 2008 to 2014, however now they are a meaningless statistic.

Whatever. The economy is just starting to heat up despite 7 years of GOP stalling on every bill that could have driven growth, destabilizing the markets with wild efforts to defund every social program, ridiculous defense spending, 40+ votes and lawsuits against the ACA, and threats to shutdown the government.

It's very easy to make accusations. Can you prove any of them? Keep in mind that for the first two years under Obama, the Dems controlled both houses of Congress and were ale to shove Obamacare down everybody's throsats.

 

[Aglaopheme]

As usual people will use the numbers when they favor their message as BoyNextDoor said. Now that rate is down to 5.3% they're meaningless......adding 223,000 jobs? How about that?

Internal polls that show your candidate is going to win the election? Fact, regardless of what every other poll says. Fact, until the election is called and you've lost.

 

[Sean Renaud]

It's very easy to make accusations. Can you prove any of them? Keep in mind that for the first two years under Obama, the Dems controlled both houses of Congress and were ale to shove Obamacare down everybody's throsats.

That doesn't take away at all from the record number of filibusters. It was just Obamacare was the one time Dems actually pulled together and said fuck it we're gonna do it and more importantly for some reason the Republicans caved when all logic says if they'd just held on for another couple of weeks Obama would have been broken and they had no reason to give up. I mean aside from doing the right thing.

 

[Boxlicker101]

That doesn't take away at all from the record number of filibusters. It was just Obamacare was the one time Dems actually pulled together and said fuck it we're gonna do it and more importantly for some reason the Republicans caved when all logic says if they'd just held on for another couple of weeks Obama would have been broken and they had no reason to give up. I mean aside from doing the right thing.

Nobody has named any yet. And, how many bills were passed by the House and stonewalled by the Democrat-controlled Senate over the last six years?

ETA: Here is more on that and some examples: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/368369/harry-reids-obstructionism-andrew-stiles

 

[BoyNextDoor]

It's very easy to make accusations. Can you prove any of them? Keep in mind that for the first two years under Obama, the Dems controlled both houses of Congress and were ale to shove Obamacare down everybody's throsats.

I state facts not in dispute and you call them accusations.

Can't wait until the Dem lead Senate and the Dem President in 2017 and the House with a thin GOP majority and several defectors shove defense spending cuts, quality science based education and meaningful public health policy down your throat. Your welcome.

 

[Bramblethorn]

Except most people who are mowing lawns aren't reporting taxes and despite that definition I don't think they would be counted, legally speaking, as employed if nobody is reporting them. I could be wrong however.

Employment stats aren't sourced from tax reporting (at least, not in any country I'm aware of, definitely not in the USA or Australia). The problem you mention is one of several reasons why not.

The US stats come from the Current Population Survey, which interviews 60,000 households each month to determine who's working/unemployed/out of labor force, then weights that up to represent the US population.

 

[Aglaopheme]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/june-2015-unemployment-numbers-119680.html

Labor participation remains a particular concern. It dipped by 0.3 percent to 62.6 percent, down from 66 percent on the eve of the 2007-2009 recession. The labor participation rate is now at its lowest level since 1977.
“June is normally a seasonally strong month for labor force growth, as many new graduates and summer workers enter the labor force,” Betsey Stevenson of the White House Council of Economic Advisers wrote in a blog post. “But this June, the labor force only rose 0.4 percent. Accordingly, the labor force contracted on a seasonally adjusted basis, reducing the labor force participation rate.”
Wages also remain a problem area, rising over the year by just 2 percent. President Barack Obama this week proposed a regulatory increase in eligibility for overtime pay meant to alleviate both the participation problem and the wage problem, and was due to discuss it in a Thursday speech in Wisconsin. The number of people working more than 40 hours a week and the number of hours worked over 40 have both grown in recent years, Stevenson wrote, after bottoming out in 2010.
Berkeley economist Emmanuel Saez calculated last week that income for the bottom 99 percent in the U.S. wage distribution grew 3.3 percent in 2014, “the best annual growth rate since 1999.” But income for the top 1 percent grew much more briskly, at 10.8 percent. “By 2014,” Saez wrote, “bottom 99 percent families have recovered slightly less than 40 percent of the 2007-2009 Great Recession losses.” The proportion of total income growth captured by the 1 percent during the recovery through 2014, Saez wrote, was 58 percent.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/june-2015-unemployment-numbers-119680.html#ixzz3epe7ngyy

 

[Aglaopheme]

It's very easy to make accusations. Can you prove any of them? Keep in mind that for the first two years under Obama, the Dems controlled both houses of Congress and were ale to shove Obamacare down everybody's throsats.

"
The correct count of how many bills have been filibustered during Obama's presidency is: approximately all of them." Bloomberg's Jonathan Bernstein

Infrastructure bills


2011: “Republicans filibuster Obama infrastructure bill"
2012: “‘Phantom filibuster’ blocking path forward for highway bill, says Reid“
2013: “Bipartisan Transportation and Housing Bill Filibustered“
Equal Pay for Women
Minimum wage increase
Creating American Jobs and Ending Offshoring Act
Bring Jobs Home Act - stop tax breaks for moving jobs and production facilities out of the country
Teachers and First Responders Back to Work Act of 2011 - rehire 400,000 teachers, firefighters, paramedics and police officers.
Student loan reform - ease the crushing burden of student loan debt by at least allowing refinancing to lower interest rates
Extended unemployment benefits - for the long-term unemployed
Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) -- let working people join unions - filibustered in 2007, killed by threat of filibuster 2009
Public Safety Employer-Employee Cooperation Act - let public safety officers join unions
The Buffett rule - ensure millionaires pay a comparable tax rate to middle-class Americans
Repeal Big Oil Tax Subsidies Act

Other Republican House "jobs" bills, listed at Speaker Boehner's "jobs" page include:

Repeal ObamaCare
Working Families Flexibility Act - Eliminates overtime pay
Preserving Work Requirements for Welfare Programs Act
Approve Keystone pipeline, to build a pipeline across the country so Canadian oil can be soil to China, easing an oil glut here and bringing prices back up.
More offshore oil drilling
Student Success Act - Promotes charter schools, cuts federal programs and support for schools
Coal Residuals Reuse and Management Act - blocks regulations on coal ash
Energy Consumers Relief Act - block government regulation of oil companies and carbon pollution
Stop Government Abuse Act - "Provides small business owners with tools to protect against government harassment."
Keep the IRS Off Your Health Care Act - "Stops the IRS from implementing the president’s health care law"
Regulations from the Executive in Need of Scrutiny (REINS) Act - "Requires congressional approval of any new regulation with an economic cost of at least $100 million"
National Strategic and Critical Minerals Production Act - Facilitates the development of strategic and critical minerals used to support manufacturing jobs. (Note Senate Republicans filibustered this.)
Protecting States' Rights to Promote American Energy Security Act - Prevents regulations on fracking
Responsible And Professionally Invigorating Development Act - Expedites the approval for new energy projects
Electricity Security & Affordability Act - Protects coal-fired plants from regulation
Preventing Government Waste & Protecting Coal Mining Jobs in America Act - prevents coal regulations
Success and Opportunity through Quality Charter Schools Act
North American Energy Infrastructure Act - promotes cross-border pipelines.
The Domestic Prosperity and Global Freedom Act - Expedites the approval of liquefied natural gas export applications
Lowering Gas Prices to Fuel an America That Works Act - expanding production of oil and gas
Permanent Internet Tax Freedom Act - Permanently extends a ban on Internet access taxes

http://crooksandliars.com/2014/09/cost-our-economy-republican-obstruction

 

[PrincepsCyberius]

I think they are meaningless without the proper context, as are all statistics. The number of people in the workforce is the lowest in 35 years. To me, that is a very alarming number. Plus the fact that although we are adding jobs, they are crappy jobs, and payroll is remaining flat or declining. The economy is still very bad.

Even more alarming is the federal debt. Under the current administration, it has nearly doubled what it was in 2008. Given the low productivity levels indicated by the job figures you mention, hyper inflation seems inevitable.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Even more alarming is the federal debt. Under the current administration, it has nearly doubled what it was in 2008. Given the low productivity levels indicated by the job figures you mention, hyper inflation seems inevitable.

No, hyper inflation doesn't even seem likely. I don't know where your getting your data from and the debt level is largely just a number.

 

[homewa]

Well naturally statistics are bad when the context isn't used... But the end-state is that figuring out if employment is improving is so incredibly complicated that you would need to need to use dozens of statistics and a lot of research to do it, and people don't often have the attention span for that.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Well naturally statistics are bad when the context isn't used... But the end-state is that figuring out if employment is improving is so incredibly complicated that you would need to need to use dozens of statistics and a lot of research to do it, and people don't often have the attention span for that.

In general the Different statistics U1-U6 mean different things. No we don't have the attention span for that which is whyou have to have a media that you can reasonably trust to have filtered through all the complicated stuff and just give you the important stuff and then the source data.

 

[homewa]

In general the Different statistics U1-U6 mean different things. No we don't have the attention span for that which is whyou have to have a media that you can reasonably trust to have filtered through all the complicated stuff and just give you the important stuff and then the source data.

Eh, the media isn't very trustworthy, they publish the statistics they think will get them the most viewers, not the ones that are the most inherently useful or honest. I wouldn't say that's a right or left wing bias, merely an explainable selfish one, it comes from having a media funded by advertisement therefore one that obsesses over viewership.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Eh, the media isn't very trustworthy, they publish the statistics they think will get them the most viewers, not the ones that are the most inherently useful or honest. I wouldn't say that's a right or left wing bias, merely an explainable selfish one, it comes from having a media funded by advertisement therefore one that obsesses over viewership.

You have to and should check a few sources (I find CNN and Al Jazeera to both be more or less trustworthy. Granted you should be aware of some of their biases but very few outright lies) but if you can't trust the media and honestly feel that you should simply sit in a corner and let the rest of run things because you don't have another choice unless you're a literal God.

 

[homewa]

You have to and should check a few sources (I find CNN and Al Jazeera to both be more or less trustworthy. Granted you should be aware of some of their biases but very few outright lies) but if you can't trust the media and honestly feel that you should simply sit in a corner and let the rest of run things because you don't have another choice unless you're a literal God.

I use Reuters and the AP usually, which is before much bias gets in there. But there's still some, in the end the problem is that statistics like this are useful but they don't say as much as people think they do. The unemployment numbers say a lot about the number of people who are not working but are actively looking, which is useful information. But take somebody who's working temp work and hasn't had work for weeks, he's in as bad shape as if he were unemployed, but he's still employed, possibly even full-time...

Statistics are useful, but you really have to understand the context and limitations of any statistic you're working with. I would much prefer if instead of referencing statistics the media used unbiased expert opinions. Now I don't mean like CNN or Fox's "Consultants", who are often unqualified, but actual qualified opinions.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

What in hell is a JOB? One hour a week or 40 hours a week? Both. And if you have 2 part-time JOBS they count you as 2 people.

 

[Sean Renaud]

I use Reuters and the AP usually, which is before much bias gets in there. But there's still some, in the end the problem is that statistics like this are useful but they don't say as much as people think they do. The unemployment numbers say a lot about the number of people who are not working but are actively looking, which is useful information. But take somebody who's working temp work and hasn't had work for weeks, he's in as bad shape as if he were unemployed, but he's still employed, possibly even full-time...

Statistics are useful, but you really have to understand the context and limitations of any statistic you're working with. I would much prefer if instead of referencing statistics the media used unbiased expert opinions. Now I don't mean like CNN or Fox's "Consultants", who are often unqualified, but actual qualified opinions.

To your first point the U6 generally covers that though not the odd person who managed to work full time and get no benefit. They might not be where they want to be or even deserve but rarely do you find people putting in full time without getting much.

I do find CNN's "consultants" to more often than not be accurate if somewhat biased. That being beside the point how far up the chain do we need to go, if you ask most of the right wing around here the CBO, FBI and DOJ are all just Obama cronies and nothing that they produce can be trusted and that's about as close to the sourse as you can get on any random bit of information.

 

[lovecraft68]

I just think it is funny that they were the hallmark of President Obama's failed economic policies from 2008 to 2014, however now they are a meaningless statistic.

Whatever. The economy is just starting to heat up despite 7 years of GOP stalling on every bill that could have driven growth, destabilizing the markets with wild efforts to defund every social program, ridiculous defense spending, 40+ votes and lawsuits against the ACA, and threats to shutdown the government.

Yes, we know, Obama is innocent, the GOP have caused everything.

See you sound as bad as the side you are trying to make fun of...

And I certainly see no 'heating up' here on the east coast, not sure where you are located that you see it.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Yes, we know, Obama is innocent, the GOP have caused everything.

See you sound as bad as the side you are trying to make fun of...

And I certainly see no 'heating up' here on the east coast, not sure where you are located that you see it.

The GOP did in fact cause a great deal, not everything but not everything even has a solid cause. As for seeing a heating up if you're not seeing it you're simply closing your eyes to make certain you don't.

 

[BotanyBoy]

Even more alarming is the federal debt. Under the current administration, it has nearly doubled what it was in 2008. Given the low productivity levels indicated by the job figures you mention, hyper inflation seems inevitable.

LOL did you think Bush's little let's tear shit up and slash taxes act was going to actually work? There was a giant turd sandwich of a bill dropped in O's lap going back in some ways 30+ years. The economy didn't magically go to fuckin' shit on 20JAN2009 because nigrah socialism singularity from Kenya so powerful it just imploded the US economy.......

No matter how bad you all wish it had.

And I certainly see no 'heating up' here on the east coast, not sure where you are located that you see it.

I find that hard to believe with how much money is being thrown around on the west/third coast. They do business with the east coast....