Trump Landslides

[Aglaopheme]

Two models that tell vastly different stories. Both have a decent
track record. One had flipped from a Trump win to a Trump loss citing the economy. Obviously neither take the pandemic into account. There’s simply no modeling for that.



https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump...nning-reelection-political-science-professor/

 

[FGB]

I think (and people have lots of time to think,ponder and research.) that when it comes down to the "Nut cutting" that Trump will win by large margin.

Oh... I know I see what the mad dog idiots post here and what the media and the pundits say. They said similar things in '16 also sure things HAVE changed and Trump could have made better choices on some things.

He is no doubt adapting and changing for better or worse...Yes, sometimes it is difficult to tell which.

But no matter what other Horseshit the media and the left come up with in the meantime the choices are still Trump or Left-wing crazy shit and Socialism and I do not think enough people want Socialism yet.

At this point I taking Trump by 25%

 

[Aglaopheme]

I’m not so sure. I’ve posted, as have others, multiple times just how slim of a margin Trump won by. I do not see where it could have increased his margins in those swing states. Quite the opposite has occurred, each of those states have trended more blue since 2016.

Another thing is, Biden is simply not hated like Hillary was. There has not been the decades long propaganda machine hitting Biden. Hillary was being bashed by all sides. I believe a large part of the was due to sexism.

Hillary’s campaign also could have done much better. Not just appearing physically in swing states, but their voter outreach over all was seriously lacking compared to past campaigns. Without getting in the thick of it, and using terminology must won’t understand, they just plain dropped the ball on voter outreach/contacts.

 

[juttjaw]

I think (and people have lots of time to think,ponder and research.) that when it comes down to the "Nut cutting" that Trump will win by large margin.

Oh... I know I see what the mad dog idiots post here and what the media and the pundits say. They said similar things in '16 also sure things HAVE changed and Trump could have made better choices on some things.

He is no doubt adapting and changing for better or worse...Yes, sometimes it is difficult to tell which.

But no matter what other Horseshit the media and the left come up with in the meantime the choices are still Trump or Left-wing crazy shit and Socialism and I do not think enough people want Socialism yet.

At this point I taking Trump by 25%

This is not 2016. You can't possibly compare the two. Trump has done a good job of stirring up potential voters. Except, they won't be the voters he wants. As of now, if they keep their fleeting attention focused, the 18-30 crowd may come out en masse. If that happens, it will turn the tide.

I certainly won't make any predictions. A night in 2016 I passed out and Hillary was the 1st woman president. Then I woke up.

 

[Saint_Ann]

Not sure how to factor how much weaker a candidate Biden is than Hillary. All her baggage and none of her gravitas.

 

[Biggs_Darklighter]

Trump probably gonna win but if he don't it better be by a fuckton cuz anything even remotely close is going to be called fraud and he'll drag that shit out forever and he'll have a large base behind him on it. It won't be as pretty as Bush/Gore either. All nice and SCOTUS'd. Downright ugly is what it'll be.

 

[FlowersForFun]

I’m not so sure. I’ve posted, as have others, multiple times just how slim of a margin Trump won by. I do not see where it could have increased his margins in those swing states. Quite the opposite has occurred, each of those states have trended more blue since 2016.

In the (D)'s radical shift left.

Their total rejection of fundamental American values and double standards against anyone not toeing the "progressive" line?? Has all been put out in the open and rubbed in everyone's face over the last several months for all to see. And it has more than a few moderates, centrist and for sure the liberals out there freaked out. Freaked enough that it may push enough of them into voting for Trump simply to reject the "progressive" cultural revolution and 'green leap forward' crazy that is CLEARLY in control of the DNC is a real possibility.

Another thing is, Biden is simply not hated like Hillary was. There has not been the decades long propaganda machine hitting Biden. Hillary was being bashed by all sides. I believe a large part of the was due to sexism.

No but he is a moderate meat suit for the radical left.

A senile puppet that will give the "moderate" appearance while point blank promoting ethno-socialism....and doing all he can to keep his teeth in while he does it.

Again the moderate/liberal fence riding swing voters? Are far from being all on board with radical shift left.

Hillary’s campaign also could have done much better. Not just appearing physically in swing states, but their voter outreach over all was seriously lacking compared to past campaigns. Without getting in the thick of it, and using terminology must won’t understand, they just plain dropped the ball on voter outreach/contacts.

I agree with you on all this.

However they are NOT doing any better with Biden right now. In fact they seem just as reclusive of a candidate as Hillary, if not more so.

That's not a good look.....this is something the moderate/swing voters are keenly aware of.

If he doesn't come out and start totally schooling Trump? And soon....Kanye is going to get more write ins than Joe Biden.

 

[Ramone45]

Not sure how to factor how much weaker a candidate Biden is than Hillary. All her baggage and none of her gravitas.

His choice for veep will not help his cause among the good, hardworking people of our country. You know, the ones you never hear from because they're too busy providing for their families and don't have time to waste on stupid, meaningless protests. With respect to the pandemic, despite the criticism. I don't think people will want to change, especially if it's obvious that the alternative will most likely be worse.

 

[Wrong Element]

Not sure how to factor how much weaker a candidate Biden is than Hillary. All her baggage and none of her gravitas.

You are literally the first person I have ever seen suggest that Biden has all of Hillary's baggage. And the idea that you're talking about the baggage of the challenger when the incumbent is presiding over a world-historical debacle is the wishfulest of wishful thinking.

There's a generation of Republican operatives that have never run a general election presidential campaign against a white male, and it really shows. They can't use their usual Culture War lines to go after Biden, which is why they've been reduced to saying that he won't be the "real" president.

 

[Wrong Element]

Trump probably gonna win but if he don't it better be by a fuckton cuz anything even remotely close is going to be called fraud and he'll drag that shit out forever and he'll have a large base behind him on it. It won't be as pretty as Bush/Gore either. All nice and SCOTUS'd. Downright ugly is what it'll be.

I see people on the left freaking out about this possibility, and it's just not a concern of mine. Trump's trademark is wearing people out through endless litigation/threats of litigation, but his term of office will end at noon on January 20, 2021; it's prescribed in law. There is literally no way he can just hang around and keep presidenting.

Now fraud ahead of time and vote suppression is definitely a valid concern.

 

[dolf]

Trump's own party are running a dirt digging campaign against him. That's not a good sign.

 

[Saint_Ann]

You are literally the first person I have ever seen suggest that Biden has all of Hillary's baggage. And the idea that you're talking about the baggage of the challenger when the incumbent is presiding over a world-historical debacle is the wishfulest of wishful thinking.

There's a generation of Republican operatives that have never run a general election presidential campaign against a white male, and it really shows. They can't use their usual Culture War lines to go after Biden, which is why they've been reduced to saying that he won't be the "real" president.

You're factoring in your opinion as if it is fact. Every political lifer has baggage, and 99% of it is on video.

 

[Adre]

Trump is so far behind with likely women voters that I can’t see how he overcomes that deficit. As for Hillary comparisons, I have many friends and acquaintances who hated her. None of them hates Biden.

 

[Saint_Ann]

Trump is so far behind with likely women voters that I can’t see how he overcomes that deficit. As for Hillary comparisons, I have many friends and acquaintances who hated her. None of them hates Biden.

Your friends all like lecherous misogynists? I guess that's why they like you.

 

[Adre]

Your friends all like lecherous misogynists? I guess that's why they like you.

He looks better running against a rapist.

 

[Saint_Ann]

He looks better running against a rapist.

Or one of those guys from Dumber and Dumber.

 

[Wrong Element]

Conceding that anecdotes are no substitute for facts: we have been startled by the number of Biden signs on neighborhood lawns — in part because this is an historically Republican area that has started to trend Democratic based on an aversion to what the GOP has turned into, but also because it's really early to be seeing general election signs for anybody.

Trump is so far behind with likely women voters that I can’t see how he overcomes that deficit. As for Hillary comparisons, I have many friends and acquaintances who hated her. None of them hates Biden.

Dave Wasserman had an interesting tweet the other day, noting the decline in the percentage of the electorate made up of white people without a college education, aka the Trump base. He said that if noncollege whites, college whites, and nonwhites have the same turnout they did in 2016, and vote for Biden and Trump with the same percentages they voted for Clinton and Trump, the relative decline of noncollege whites would be enough all by itself to shift Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida into the D column.

Trump cannot win without either finding a way to expand his base or dramatically suppressing turnout among the Dem base. As for the former, how does that seem to be going for him? You think his geezer fans from 2016 are enjoying the "risk your lives to save NASDAQ" messaging?

 

[Adre]

Let’s not forget Trump and his band of assclowns literally put his Presidency at risk to take Biden out of the race. These are solid reasons he did not want him as an opponent. And when you’re an acknowledged idiot yourself, all the dementia references in the world aren’t going to garner you extra voters.

 

[Ziggins]

Biden had a large amount of baggage, but he dropped most of it by becoming senile. Then his party dumped a ton more on him by going batshit.

 

[dolf]

I suspect all Biden needs to do is to remain bland and not too vocal. Don't give people enough to build a strong feeling about you, it's sensible tactics when faced with someone so polarising. Instead of butting horns, just sidestep.

That's where Hillary screwed up. Well... that and being so unlikable. And female.

 

[Carnal_Flower]

Lol.

Trump's monotone reciting of the same crap at Mt. Rushmore didn't exactly enflame anyone. That kind of b.s. is the same as his "But the CARAVANS!!!!" which did not work in 2018.

Your radical left propaganda fear-mongering does not appeal to swing voters and independents. It only appeals to the Fox viewership and cultists, which are not enough to get him a win.

He can't run on his record because he has none, except failure, and he has no vision of the future. All he has to run on is ginning up fear, and that won't work.

But keep it up. The more you push this crap and the more you ignore the pandemic, the more certain it is he will lose.

In the (D)'s radical shift left.

Their total rejection of fundamental American values and double standards against anyone not toeing the "progressive" line?? Has all been put out in the open and rubbed in everyone's face over the last several months for all to see. And it has more than a few moderates, centrist and for sure the liberals out there freaked out. Freaked enough that it may push enough of them into voting for Trump simply to reject the "progressive" cultural revolution and 'green leap forward' crazy that is CLEARLY in control of the DNC is a real possibility.

 

[FlowersForFun]

Trump is so far behind with likely women voters that I can’t see how he overcomes that deficit. As for Hillary comparisons, I have many friends and acquaintances who hated her. None of them hates Biden.

Not supporting Biden will get you smeared a racist at the very least, or your house burnt down, your ass kicked and maybe even murdered.

So yea...everyone likes Biden in public.

Your radical left propaganda fear-mongering does not appeal to swing voters and independents.

It's not propaganda when they can see the (D)'s behavior with their own eyes.

You lot can blame Trump for your poorly managed states/cities flying apart at the seams but we all know who's running them. And it's not Trump.

You can pretend your politics haven't lurched left, but we all know they have.

 

[FGB]

Opinion on what happened in 2016.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBbeepJeD8E

 

[Conager]

Trump's own party are running a dirt digging campaign against him. That's not a good sign.

Neocons are not new, and not conservatives. They run as conservatives to successfully hijack the Republican party but they aren't "Trump's own party." They always were RINOs. Republicans, in name only.

Bill Kristol, the leading "Republican" warhawk enjoyed tremendous influence. He was the most quoted so called conservative. His magazine is out of business. No one gives a fuck what it is that he has to say about anything. Same with the rest of them.

They are just bitter that a New York Democrat wrested power away from them.

New York Liberals have been pushed aside by the leftists that now run openly as Democrats always wanted to govern.

Oddly, Trumps New York liberalism is mor conservative than lot of Republicans.

None of it matters any more since Democrats and Republicans now both favor unlimited spending on any and everything.

 

[LincolnDuncan]

Snowflakes will come together and bury that fucker in an avalanche