Ishmael
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- Nov 24, 2001
- Posts
- 84,005
There Will be War – Japan vs. Russia.
History:
Tensions and conflicts between Russia and Japan go back over a hundred years. The roots are to be found in the Sino-Japanese war of 1894-95. At the end of this conflict China deeded Japan rights to Korea and portions of Manchuria. Of singular interest was the port of Lu-shun on the tip of the Liaotung peninsula. Russia was beginning a program of Imperialist expansion into the far east and in 1896 bullied China into deeding Russia the same territories that China had previously deeded Japan. Russia further coerced China into signing an alliance treaty against Japan. Russian troops occupied the port of Lu-shun (Port Arthur) that same year. Thus began the Japan-Russia war. Japan was victorious in this venture. Halting Russian expansion into the far east and producing the first victory of an Asian power over a European power. Russia did, however, retain eastern Siberia.
The Second World War in Asia began with the Japanese invasion of China and Manchuria. Three days before the Japanese surrendered unconditionally, Russia declared war against the Japanese. The prize they were given for becoming our ‘ally’ was Sakhalin Island. This is an open wound to the Japanese and an embarrassment to the United States and our other WWII allies.
The Scenario:
Japans era of post war prosperity is over. Japan excelled at the importation’s of raw materials and the processing of same into finished goods that were then sold to the west, primarily the United States. Their labor cost advantage allowed them to do so, even though all of the raw materials had to be purchased on the open market and imported. As Japanese prosperity grew, so did their labor costs. Japan lost it’s competitive edge in the 1980’s. Momentum carried them into the ‘90s.
The Japanese banking system is on its knee’s and there is little political stability in the country. With one government being formed after another. Further, there is no prospect for a brighter future. Japan now has to export industry and jobs in order to maintain its manufacturing capabilities.
There is a source of relief for Japan. The invasion of and occupation of the worlds last vast untapped reserve of natural resources, Eastern Siberia. As the Japanese can not realistically reduce the wages and the standard of living for it’s peoples. The next best thing is a source of wholly owned, cheap, and available raw materials to offset the labor costs.
Political Considerations:
While Japan doesn’t have a historical claim to the area, neither do the Russians. The Russians represent an occupying force to the indigenous peoples. While the Japanese would just be another occupying force, their rational, and justified, is that the peoples of eastern Siberia are Asian, not Slavic.
The long standing tension between Russia and Japan over Sakhalin Island could be leveraged into the required “flash point”.
Military:
The Russian Far East command is in shambles. The Pacific fleet is tied up at the quays rusting. The troops that are stationed in the Far East are strung out along the Chinese border. Postured in precisely the wrong direction.
The Japanese are militarily stronger than the Russians in the region. Japan has modernized her Air Force and Navy. The new Konga class destroyers are actually more capable than our Arliegh Burke class and almost the equal of our Vincennes class cruisers. Japan also has a quite capable and modern submarine fleet.
Russia’s logistic train is horrendously long. Japan’s ability to transport, re-supply, and support their troops is trivial compared to the obstacles Russia will face.
The wild card is the nuclear advantage that the Russians hold. But this is a paper advantage only and a dedicated Japan could produce nuclear weapons in short order with a focused political leadership. The technology and tools exist. They have the reactors, and their space program has given them the equivalent of an ICBM. So the launch vehicles already exist. The only thing that Japan needs to become a nuclear power with inter-continental delivery capability is the warhead. A crash program could produce one in less than two years. This would effectively cancel Russia’s only trump card.
Probabilities:
Over the next ten years the probability of this war erupting is on the order of 10%. The chances will increase dramatically should the Japanese people find a newfound sense of nationalism and elect either an extreme right wing or left wing government. An extreme swing in Japanese politics will be the precursor for an increase in the probability of this war breaking out. Should that occur, the probability could go as high as 50%.
Ramifications:
This is a very tough scenario for all of the world powers. Although Japan is considered an Ally, the nations of the world cannot condone such naked aggression. Further, Russia requires the resources to develop it’s own economy thereby reducing the risk of their having to use any of their nuclear capability. A paranoid Russia is NOT what the world needs. The Chinese have a stake in this as well. They have long considered Eastern Siberia as their own territory. This scenario has all the required elements to fire off the first shots of WWIII
Ishmael
-------------------------------------------------
Link to the prologue:
https://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=148805&perpage=10&pagenumber=1
History:
Tensions and conflicts between Russia and Japan go back over a hundred years. The roots are to be found in the Sino-Japanese war of 1894-95. At the end of this conflict China deeded Japan rights to Korea and portions of Manchuria. Of singular interest was the port of Lu-shun on the tip of the Liaotung peninsula. Russia was beginning a program of Imperialist expansion into the far east and in 1896 bullied China into deeding Russia the same territories that China had previously deeded Japan. Russia further coerced China into signing an alliance treaty against Japan. Russian troops occupied the port of Lu-shun (Port Arthur) that same year. Thus began the Japan-Russia war. Japan was victorious in this venture. Halting Russian expansion into the far east and producing the first victory of an Asian power over a European power. Russia did, however, retain eastern Siberia.
The Second World War in Asia began with the Japanese invasion of China and Manchuria. Three days before the Japanese surrendered unconditionally, Russia declared war against the Japanese. The prize they were given for becoming our ‘ally’ was Sakhalin Island. This is an open wound to the Japanese and an embarrassment to the United States and our other WWII allies.
The Scenario:
Japans era of post war prosperity is over. Japan excelled at the importation’s of raw materials and the processing of same into finished goods that were then sold to the west, primarily the United States. Their labor cost advantage allowed them to do so, even though all of the raw materials had to be purchased on the open market and imported. As Japanese prosperity grew, so did their labor costs. Japan lost it’s competitive edge in the 1980’s. Momentum carried them into the ‘90s.
The Japanese banking system is on its knee’s and there is little political stability in the country. With one government being formed after another. Further, there is no prospect for a brighter future. Japan now has to export industry and jobs in order to maintain its manufacturing capabilities.
There is a source of relief for Japan. The invasion of and occupation of the worlds last vast untapped reserve of natural resources, Eastern Siberia. As the Japanese can not realistically reduce the wages and the standard of living for it’s peoples. The next best thing is a source of wholly owned, cheap, and available raw materials to offset the labor costs.
Political Considerations:
While Japan doesn’t have a historical claim to the area, neither do the Russians. The Russians represent an occupying force to the indigenous peoples. While the Japanese would just be another occupying force, their rational, and justified, is that the peoples of eastern Siberia are Asian, not Slavic.
The long standing tension between Russia and Japan over Sakhalin Island could be leveraged into the required “flash point”.
Military:
The Russian Far East command is in shambles. The Pacific fleet is tied up at the quays rusting. The troops that are stationed in the Far East are strung out along the Chinese border. Postured in precisely the wrong direction.
The Japanese are militarily stronger than the Russians in the region. Japan has modernized her Air Force and Navy. The new Konga class destroyers are actually more capable than our Arliegh Burke class and almost the equal of our Vincennes class cruisers. Japan also has a quite capable and modern submarine fleet.
Russia’s logistic train is horrendously long. Japan’s ability to transport, re-supply, and support their troops is trivial compared to the obstacles Russia will face.
The wild card is the nuclear advantage that the Russians hold. But this is a paper advantage only and a dedicated Japan could produce nuclear weapons in short order with a focused political leadership. The technology and tools exist. They have the reactors, and their space program has given them the equivalent of an ICBM. So the launch vehicles already exist. The only thing that Japan needs to become a nuclear power with inter-continental delivery capability is the warhead. A crash program could produce one in less than two years. This would effectively cancel Russia’s only trump card.
Probabilities:
Over the next ten years the probability of this war erupting is on the order of 10%. The chances will increase dramatically should the Japanese people find a newfound sense of nationalism and elect either an extreme right wing or left wing government. An extreme swing in Japanese politics will be the precursor for an increase in the probability of this war breaking out. Should that occur, the probability could go as high as 50%.
Ramifications:
This is a very tough scenario for all of the world powers. Although Japan is considered an Ally, the nations of the world cannot condone such naked aggression. Further, Russia requires the resources to develop it’s own economy thereby reducing the risk of their having to use any of their nuclear capability. A paranoid Russia is NOT what the world needs. The Chinese have a stake in this as well. They have long considered Eastern Siberia as their own territory. This scenario has all the required elements to fire off the first shots of WWIII
Ishmael
-------------------------------------------------
Link to the prologue:
https://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=148805&perpage=10&pagenumber=1
Last edited:
