Ishmael
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- Nov 24, 2001
- Posts
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There will be War – Bolivia vs Chile
History:
In 1879 the War of the Pacific started. The beginning of the war was a simple event. Bolivia rescinded a mining contract held by a Chilean company. Chile declared war and invaded Bolivia. Peru had an alliance in place with Bolivia and came to her aid. The war ended in 1894 when Chilean forces captured the Peruvian capital of Lima. Chile annexed the Bolivian province of Atacama and with it Bolivia’s only port on the Pacific, Antofagasta. This left Bolivia a landlocked nation. Chile also seized Peruvian territories but returned those territories to Peru in 1989.
Current:
Bolivia is nominally a Republic. It is the poorest nation in South America with the deep social unrest the goes with abject poverty. It is also the 3rd largest supplier of cocoa in the world. Using Columbia and Peru as Trans-shipment points. Efforts to convert the farmers to other crops have been hit or miss. As long as there is a large market for cocaine Bolivia will continue to grow the crops. There are active anti-government forces in play here, a local version of the Maoist revolutionaries, ‘The Shining Path’ being the most active. The government is attempting progressive measures but is barely keeping even with the narco-terrorism and the effects of the worlds economy on the local economy. Like most South American countries, there is a history of government instability. The Bolivian government has changed via being overthrown 200 times since the founding of the nation in 1825.
All bulk goods that enter or exit Bolivia must traverse either Peruvian or Chilean territories leaving Bolivia’s economy held by the throat by the other two nations.
Bolivia has demanded the return of it’s territory and a corridor to its former port city. Formal complaints have been lodged against Chile in the world court and the UN. So far no action has been taken. The current government appears to be prone to pursuit the matter before world organizations.
The scenario:
Following a violent overthrow of the current government, Bolivia embarks on a military build up. The goal being to forcefully recover the territory lost and an access to a Pacific port. This would entail a quick strike into the atacama region (now named Antofagasta) with a defense in depth set up along a line connecting Pisaqua, Tana, and Camina.
Depending on the government formed this has the possibility of either failure, or the involvement of other major nations.
Should the coup be of a right wing military nature, the effort will probably fail. Even though Bolivia has a Navy, it has no men-of-war. It’s navy exists on paper, after all, it is a landlocked nation. Chile has a real Navy and would be able to use it’s sea power to effectively blockade the ports taken by Bolivia and land troops at will anywhere along the coastline leaving Bolivia’s Army subject to being flanked and enveloped.
However, a take over by a Maoist regime might have quite different results. A natural alliance with China would form. With the support of the Chinese it is very likely that the Bolivians may prevail. Although China’s blue water Navy is not world class, it is more than a match for the Chilean Navy. The cost to Bolivia for this help would be port privileges. China would dearly love to have a friendly port for her Naval vessels on this side of the Pacific. This would provoke the intervention of the United States and cause a confrontation between the US and China.
Even the actions of small nations can start big wars.
Probabilities:
Less than 3% probability if the current government stays in power. This number jumps to 50% if there is a coup and the current government is overthrown. The probability of a confrontation between the US and China is solely dependent on the make up of the ‘overthrowers’. The military has the guns right now, but the Maoists are making a lot of money in the cocaine trade.
Ishmael
History:
In 1879 the War of the Pacific started. The beginning of the war was a simple event. Bolivia rescinded a mining contract held by a Chilean company. Chile declared war and invaded Bolivia. Peru had an alliance in place with Bolivia and came to her aid. The war ended in 1894 when Chilean forces captured the Peruvian capital of Lima. Chile annexed the Bolivian province of Atacama and with it Bolivia’s only port on the Pacific, Antofagasta. This left Bolivia a landlocked nation. Chile also seized Peruvian territories but returned those territories to Peru in 1989.
Current:
Bolivia is nominally a Republic. It is the poorest nation in South America with the deep social unrest the goes with abject poverty. It is also the 3rd largest supplier of cocoa in the world. Using Columbia and Peru as Trans-shipment points. Efforts to convert the farmers to other crops have been hit or miss. As long as there is a large market for cocaine Bolivia will continue to grow the crops. There are active anti-government forces in play here, a local version of the Maoist revolutionaries, ‘The Shining Path’ being the most active. The government is attempting progressive measures but is barely keeping even with the narco-terrorism and the effects of the worlds economy on the local economy. Like most South American countries, there is a history of government instability. The Bolivian government has changed via being overthrown 200 times since the founding of the nation in 1825.
All bulk goods that enter or exit Bolivia must traverse either Peruvian or Chilean territories leaving Bolivia’s economy held by the throat by the other two nations.
Bolivia has demanded the return of it’s territory and a corridor to its former port city. Formal complaints have been lodged against Chile in the world court and the UN. So far no action has been taken. The current government appears to be prone to pursuit the matter before world organizations.
The scenario:
Following a violent overthrow of the current government, Bolivia embarks on a military build up. The goal being to forcefully recover the territory lost and an access to a Pacific port. This would entail a quick strike into the atacama region (now named Antofagasta) with a defense in depth set up along a line connecting Pisaqua, Tana, and Camina.
Depending on the government formed this has the possibility of either failure, or the involvement of other major nations.
Should the coup be of a right wing military nature, the effort will probably fail. Even though Bolivia has a Navy, it has no men-of-war. It’s navy exists on paper, after all, it is a landlocked nation. Chile has a real Navy and would be able to use it’s sea power to effectively blockade the ports taken by Bolivia and land troops at will anywhere along the coastline leaving Bolivia’s Army subject to being flanked and enveloped.
However, a take over by a Maoist regime might have quite different results. A natural alliance with China would form. With the support of the Chinese it is very likely that the Bolivians may prevail. Although China’s blue water Navy is not world class, it is more than a match for the Chilean Navy. The cost to Bolivia for this help would be port privileges. China would dearly love to have a friendly port for her Naval vessels on this side of the Pacific. This would provoke the intervention of the United States and cause a confrontation between the US and China.
Even the actions of small nations can start big wars.
Probabilities:
Less than 3% probability if the current government stays in power. This number jumps to 50% if there is a coup and the current government is overthrown. The probability of a confrontation between the US and China is solely dependent on the make up of the ‘overthrowers’. The military has the guns right now, but the Maoists are making a lot of money in the cocaine trade.
Ishmael
