The 'Settled' Science of Polling

[4est_4est_Gump]

http://www.bizzyblog.com/wp-images/PewTable9percentPollCooperation2012.jpg

http://pjmedia.com/blog/republican-wave-drowns-pollsters/?singlepage=true

 

[RobDownSouth]

Are you claimin' the emergence of a permanent Republican majority here?
*snicker*

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Even in the 1990s, it was already shaky to contend that one could credibly generalize about an entire population based on the willing participation of barely one-third of the desired respondent group. Now we’re supposed to believe such generalizations can still be done based on participation rates as low as 9 percent — or even lower, given that this was Pew’s 2012 average.

For all of this not to matter, one would have to believe that there’s no significant difference between the views of those who can and can’t be reached, or between participants and refusers. That premise falls flat on its face once one recognizes that Republicans are twice as likely to distrust the media as Democrats, and that pollsters are usually and properly seen as representatives of the media.

There’s one more wild card which belongs in the mix, namely whether participants are even willing to tell pollsters the truth. Though unrelated (or so we certainly hope), revelations since 2012 about government spying on journalists and its massive data collection efforts relating to citizens’ phone, Internet and other activities might be expected to lead to lower willingness to participate in polls. Those who still participate may be less inclined to express non-”mainstream” opinions in surveys while still doing so in the voting booth on Election Day.

Tom Blumer

 

[Bidin~Time]

The pollsters blew up my phone this election year. It pissed me off. When I became pissed off enough to actually answer the phone, I answered their questions the exact opposite of my true views. Maybe I wasn't the enigma.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

The pollsters blew up my phone this election year. It pissed me off. When I became pissed off enough to actually answer the phone, I answered their questions the exact opposite of my true views. Maybe I wasn't the enigma.

lmao

 

[Busybody]

The pollsters blew up my phone this election year. It pissed me off. When I became pissed off enough to actually answer the phone, I answered their questions the exact opposite of my true views. Maybe I wasn't the enigma.

I do that ALL the time

a TEE HEE

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

I can't even recall even being polled.


Nielsen once sent me a dollar to be part of their survey, but they never followed up on it.

 

[toubab]

I definitely believe in polling. This year the polls were very accurate, if you moved everything to the right about four points.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

I've never had one in my rifle's crosshairs, I think they're purely fictional.

 

[toubab]

I've never had one in my rifle's crosshairs, I think they're purely fictional.

Once you get on their list, they pester the hell out of you.

 

[Que]

I definitely believe in polling. This year the polls were very accurate, if you moved everything to the right about four points.

Do you have an opinion on why the 4 (probably more) point left lean of the polls?

 

[toubab]

Do you have an opinion on why the 4 (probably more) point left lean of the polls?

Yes, as a matter of fact I do. The pollsters don't take into account history very well, in my opinion. They rely too heavily on raw numbers.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Do you have an opinion on why the 4 (probably more) point left lean of the polls?

dolf's finger on the scales.

 

[Que]

Yes, as a matter of fact I do. The pollsters don't take into account history very well, in my opinion. They rely too heavily on raw numbers.

You talking voter turnout projections?

I haven't seen the numbers but I thought they were in the ballpark?

I know that Dems lost badly to men after pandering to women over made up issues like "taking away birth control - legal my entire life) the last 4 years.

Does exit poling reflect Democrat men crossing party lines?

 

[toubab]

You talking voter turnout projections?

I haven't seen the numbers but I thought they were in the ballpark?

I know that Dems lost badly to men after pandering to women over made up issues like "taking away birth control - legal my entire life) the last 4 years.

Does exit poling reflect Democrat men crossing party lines?

No, I'm talking pure history. Not to pat myself on the back, but I had this election figured out many months ago because I know how midterm elections run historically, and I especially know how second term midterms run historically. It's kind of like predicting the tides. They don't change that much.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Exit polling is a bunch of pure happy horseshit.



There. I said it.

 

[toubab]

Exit polling is a bunch of pure happy horseshit.



There. I said it.

I disagree. If it's done correctly, it's reasonably accurate.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

It's great fertilizer.