Pure
Fiel a Verdad
- Joined
- Dec 20, 2001
- Posts
- 15,135
Behind the debate about mosques, non Xian (Muslim) or non Protestant (Catholic) values, "secure borders," and "illegals," is the basic reality. Immigration/migration must occur to avoid population decline and economic hardships.
The German journalist below (Klingholz) sets out the reality that most politicians ignore.
The problem is more general: According to the UN, below-replacement fertility is expected in 75% of the developed world by the year 2050.
The US is not in quite as problematic state as Germany, but the basic points apply. The old dominant groups are becoming less a proportion of the entire population.
US census report says
http://www.census.gov/population/www/pop-profile/natproj.html
By 2050, the proportional shares shift quite dramatically. Less than 53 percent would be non-Hispanic White; 16 percent would be Black; 23 percent would be Hispanic origin; 10 percent would be Asian and Pacific Islander; and about 1 percent would be American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,714534,00.html
08/30/2010
Immigration Debate
Germany Needs More Foreigners
A Commentary by Reiner Klingholz
A new book by Thilo Sarrazin, a board member of Germany's central bank, accusing immigrants of dragging down the country, has unleashed a new immigration debate. Yet neither side is addressing the real issue: Germany's rapidly aging population.
We don't know if Thilo Sarrazin intended to stall the debate on immigration to Germany, but it's clear that his polemical book has had precisely that effect.
His work has split the debaters into two camps: an outraged faction that includes politicians from all the major parties and that can hardly be avoided by anyone in public life, and a semi-public forum and blogger scene, which generally applauds Sarrazin. Neither camp is actually helping to address the issues at hand.
The political correctness of one side prevents any rational reflection on the problems that Sarrazin has rightly brought up, although he is by no means the first critic to do so. At the same time, the opposing online community mixes half-truths with prejudices to cement such a negative, distorted image of immigrants that it precludes any balanced immigration policy. Both factions thwart a debate about what Germany urgently needs: significantly more immigration.
The majority of Germany's politicians -- and presumably also the German people - are of the opinion that the country has already had enough immigration. There may be minorities such as Economics Minister Rainer Brüderle, employers' associations, the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) and the German Engineering Federation who are calling for new immigrants, but no one appears to be listening to them.
Integration Shortcomings
Of course it's important to realize that the integration of immigrants here in Germany suffers from enormous shortcomings. Studies have confirmed that past immigration has become a cost factor for the economy. The OECD says that there is hardly any other country in which immigrants have such a low level of education as in Germany. Furthermore, no comparative study can hide the fact that people with roots in Turkey have the greatest problems with integration.
Nevertheless, such information causes us to lose sight of all the immigrants that lead perfectly normal average lives, or are even better qualified and earn more money and pay more taxes than the average members of the old established population. Negative experiences and the fear at the back of politicians' minds that the issue could cost them votes are all it takes to trigger a political and societal reflex: "More of the same? No, thanks."
The labor market triggers a second reflex, which could be summed up as follows: As long as there is even just one unemployed individual on Germany's streets, then we don't need any workers from other countries. Frank-Jürgen Weise, head of the Federal Employment Agency, tells us again and again that we have to mobilize our hidden reserves and better train our own people. It's certainly a good idea to sit down and do your homework before you look for outside help. Yet despite the billions of euros that have been pumped into qualification measures and employment-boosting initiatives, it's estimated that up to a million people with no prospects of getting work remain parked in apparently ineffective programs -- while job openings for skilled workers still remain unfilled.
Unfortunately, the immigration policy based on these reflexes is "effective": Germany's borders have been virtually sealed. Tougher asylum laws mean that Germany has practically stopped accepting refugees. In 2008, only 233 people were granted asylum.
After Germany stopped recruiting guest workers in 1973, the main way to emigrate was for family members abroad to join their relatives in Germany. However, because these family reunions primarily allowed women and children to move to Germany -- thereby causing the already low educational level of immigrants to drop even further -- they were later severely impeded. Since then, an ever-dwindling number of Turks have been emigrating to Germany. Their net immigration plunged from 10,130 in the year 2000 to 1,746 in 2005. In the meantime, the direction of emigration has even reversed itself. In 2008 -- the most recent year with available concrete figures -- there was a net emigration of 10,147 persons to Turkey.
Germany Seals Itself Off
Sarrazin's argument that we are being infiltrated by Turks can thus hardly hold water today -- particularly since there is no longer anything close to a population explosion in Turkey, a country that is also not able to escape the demographics of the modern age. Turkish women currently have on average 2.1 children -- just enough to maintain a stable population. And the birth rate will almost certainly continue to fall there.
Nonetheless, it looks as if the politicians in Berlin have long since embraced Sarrazin's problem group definition and tailored their immigration policies accordingly. The numbers, in any case, support the assumption that Germany is sealing itself off. Neither unqualified nor qualified immigrants are apparently welcome. Only poor EU countries, from which the flow of immigration cannot be stopped, still provided significant numbers of new arrivals to Germany in 2008: 8,103 from Bulgaria and 10,447 from Romania. Statistics also reveal that over the past two years the number of people from majority Muslim countries who returned home significantly outstripped the number who immigrated to Germany.
And we are by no means being overrun by highly-qualified foreigners either: In 2008, a total of only 157 individuals from non-EU countries were granted permanent residency status -- 71 of whom came from the US. That is an impressively low number in view of the 40,000 to 80,000 vacant skilled worker positions upon which up to a quarter of a million jobs depend. One reason for the relatively low productivity of immigrants here in Germany is that we don't even allow qualified individuals into the country.
It is absurd that for years Germany has steadfastly ignored all the warning signals and refused to become a country of immigrants -- with the result that it is now de facto a country of net emigration. For many years, an annual average of 250,000 people came across the border. According to official statistics, however, since 2008 more people have been leaving the land of poets, thinkers and engineers than have been arriving. This puts Germany in a league apart -- along with Japan -- among the world's highly-developed rich industrialized nations.
Japan is a perfect example, though, of how not to do things: The birth rate there is even lower than in Germany, and foreigners make up only 1.7 percent of the population. The country resists immigration in a way that borders on xenophobia, and it is currently pursuing a repatriation program for the few immigrants that it has. All of this means that Japan is rushing toward a demographic hara-kiri. It's estimated that by the year 2050, the Japanese population will shrink from the current 127 million to 95 million and, at the same time, become extremely aged.
Shrinking and Aging Population
The future doesn't look quite so grim for Germany. But Sarrazin's visions -- slightly modified -- could come true. Even with an annual immigration rate of 100,000 to 200,000 people, Germany's Federal Statistical Office predicts that the population would decline by 12 million by the year 2050. This bloodletting, which numerically corresponds to completely emptying Germany's 12 largest cities, from Berlin to Leipzig, is optimistically calculated, however, because it is based on a level of immigration that is currently no longer taking place. [end verbatim excerpt]
The German journalist below (Klingholz) sets out the reality that most politicians ignore.
The problem is more general: According to the UN, below-replacement fertility is expected in 75% of the developed world by the year 2050.
The US is not in quite as problematic state as Germany, but the basic points apply. The old dominant groups are becoming less a proportion of the entire population.
US census report says
http://www.census.gov/population/www/pop-profile/natproj.html
By 2050, the proportional shares shift quite dramatically. Less than 53 percent would be non-Hispanic White; 16 percent would be Black; 23 percent would be Hispanic origin; 10 percent would be Asian and Pacific Islander; and about 1 percent would be American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,714534,00.html
08/30/2010
Immigration Debate
Germany Needs More Foreigners
A Commentary by Reiner Klingholz
A new book by Thilo Sarrazin, a board member of Germany's central bank, accusing immigrants of dragging down the country, has unleashed a new immigration debate. Yet neither side is addressing the real issue: Germany's rapidly aging population.
We don't know if Thilo Sarrazin intended to stall the debate on immigration to Germany, but it's clear that his polemical book has had precisely that effect.
His work has split the debaters into two camps: an outraged faction that includes politicians from all the major parties and that can hardly be avoided by anyone in public life, and a semi-public forum and blogger scene, which generally applauds Sarrazin. Neither camp is actually helping to address the issues at hand.
The political correctness of one side prevents any rational reflection on the problems that Sarrazin has rightly brought up, although he is by no means the first critic to do so. At the same time, the opposing online community mixes half-truths with prejudices to cement such a negative, distorted image of immigrants that it precludes any balanced immigration policy. Both factions thwart a debate about what Germany urgently needs: significantly more immigration.
The majority of Germany's politicians -- and presumably also the German people - are of the opinion that the country has already had enough immigration. There may be minorities such as Economics Minister Rainer Brüderle, employers' associations, the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) and the German Engineering Federation who are calling for new immigrants, but no one appears to be listening to them.
Integration Shortcomings
Of course it's important to realize that the integration of immigrants here in Germany suffers from enormous shortcomings. Studies have confirmed that past immigration has become a cost factor for the economy. The OECD says that there is hardly any other country in which immigrants have such a low level of education as in Germany. Furthermore, no comparative study can hide the fact that people with roots in Turkey have the greatest problems with integration.
Nevertheless, such information causes us to lose sight of all the immigrants that lead perfectly normal average lives, or are even better qualified and earn more money and pay more taxes than the average members of the old established population. Negative experiences and the fear at the back of politicians' minds that the issue could cost them votes are all it takes to trigger a political and societal reflex: "More of the same? No, thanks."
The labor market triggers a second reflex, which could be summed up as follows: As long as there is even just one unemployed individual on Germany's streets, then we don't need any workers from other countries. Frank-Jürgen Weise, head of the Federal Employment Agency, tells us again and again that we have to mobilize our hidden reserves and better train our own people. It's certainly a good idea to sit down and do your homework before you look for outside help. Yet despite the billions of euros that have been pumped into qualification measures and employment-boosting initiatives, it's estimated that up to a million people with no prospects of getting work remain parked in apparently ineffective programs -- while job openings for skilled workers still remain unfilled.
Unfortunately, the immigration policy based on these reflexes is "effective": Germany's borders have been virtually sealed. Tougher asylum laws mean that Germany has practically stopped accepting refugees. In 2008, only 233 people were granted asylum.
After Germany stopped recruiting guest workers in 1973, the main way to emigrate was for family members abroad to join their relatives in Germany. However, because these family reunions primarily allowed women and children to move to Germany -- thereby causing the already low educational level of immigrants to drop even further -- they were later severely impeded. Since then, an ever-dwindling number of Turks have been emigrating to Germany. Their net immigration plunged from 10,130 in the year 2000 to 1,746 in 2005. In the meantime, the direction of emigration has even reversed itself. In 2008 -- the most recent year with available concrete figures -- there was a net emigration of 10,147 persons to Turkey.
Germany Seals Itself Off
Sarrazin's argument that we are being infiltrated by Turks can thus hardly hold water today -- particularly since there is no longer anything close to a population explosion in Turkey, a country that is also not able to escape the demographics of the modern age. Turkish women currently have on average 2.1 children -- just enough to maintain a stable population. And the birth rate will almost certainly continue to fall there.
Nonetheless, it looks as if the politicians in Berlin have long since embraced Sarrazin's problem group definition and tailored their immigration policies accordingly. The numbers, in any case, support the assumption that Germany is sealing itself off. Neither unqualified nor qualified immigrants are apparently welcome. Only poor EU countries, from which the flow of immigration cannot be stopped, still provided significant numbers of new arrivals to Germany in 2008: 8,103 from Bulgaria and 10,447 from Romania. Statistics also reveal that over the past two years the number of people from majority Muslim countries who returned home significantly outstripped the number who immigrated to Germany.
And we are by no means being overrun by highly-qualified foreigners either: In 2008, a total of only 157 individuals from non-EU countries were granted permanent residency status -- 71 of whom came from the US. That is an impressively low number in view of the 40,000 to 80,000 vacant skilled worker positions upon which up to a quarter of a million jobs depend. One reason for the relatively low productivity of immigrants here in Germany is that we don't even allow qualified individuals into the country.
It is absurd that for years Germany has steadfastly ignored all the warning signals and refused to become a country of immigrants -- with the result that it is now de facto a country of net emigration. For many years, an annual average of 250,000 people came across the border. According to official statistics, however, since 2008 more people have been leaving the land of poets, thinkers and engineers than have been arriving. This puts Germany in a league apart -- along with Japan -- among the world's highly-developed rich industrialized nations.
Japan is a perfect example, though, of how not to do things: The birth rate there is even lower than in Germany, and foreigners make up only 1.7 percent of the population. The country resists immigration in a way that borders on xenophobia, and it is currently pursuing a repatriation program for the few immigrants that it has. All of this means that Japan is rushing toward a demographic hara-kiri. It's estimated that by the year 2050, the Japanese population will shrink from the current 127 million to 95 million and, at the same time, become extremely aged.
Shrinking and Aging Population
The future doesn't look quite so grim for Germany. But Sarrazin's visions -- slightly modified -- could come true. Even with an annual immigration rate of 100,000 to 200,000 people, Germany's Federal Statistical Office predicts that the population would decline by 12 million by the year 2050. This bloodletting, which numerically corresponds to completely emptying Germany's 12 largest cities, from Berlin to Leipzig, is optimistically calculated, however, because it is based on a level of immigration that is currently no longer taking place. [end verbatim excerpt]
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