Mr. Trump said this month that Iran is changing its behavior in the region, implying that its leaders had been chastened or cowed by the American move and were pulling back.
“They’re no longer looking so much to the Mediterranean,” he told reporters. “They’re no longer looking so much to what’s going on in Syria, what’s going on in Yemen and lots of other places. They’re a much different country over the last three months. Iran is not the same country that it was a few months ago. They’re a much, much different group of leaders.”
But analysts say there has been little or no change in Iran’s regional posture. “Trump has this illusion that because he left the nuclear agreement, we are forced to change our behavior in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine,” said Hossein Sheikholeslam, a special adviser to Iran’s foreign minister on regional issues. “No way we are doing that. If we ever change our policies, it will have nothing to do with Trump or anyone in the White House or elsewhere.”
Most Western analysts largely agree with that assessment. “Iran is rethinking its role in the region, but not because of Mr. Trump directly,” said Walter Posch, a Middle East expert at the National Defense Academy in Vienna.
The government of Iran has ordered a formerly idle nuclear plant to resume operations on Wednesday to be ready in case discussions with European leaders over saving the nuclear agreement vacated by the Trump administration fall through.
Reuters reports that a statement on the website of Iran's atomic energy agency (AEOI) confirmed that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had ordered the plant's reopening for the first time in nine years in preparation for the possibility of talks breaking down.
Iran say it will stop implementing the landmark 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) if all member states, international organizations, and the remaining parties to the agreement cannot guarantee its benefits for Iran.
“There shall be no doubt that if, after the exhaustion of available remedies, rights and benefits of the Iranian people are not fully guaranteed, it is Iran’s unquestionable right — recognized also under the JCPOA and Security Council resolution 2231 (2015) — to take appropriate actions and to treat the re-imposition of nuclear-related sanctions by the United States ‘as grounds to cease performing its commitments under the JCPOA in whole or in part',” a statement released by Iran’s mission to the UN in New York said on Thursday, June 28.
Arguing that Iran has fulfilled its obligations under the agreement and that has been verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), “the United States has consistently failed — since ‘implementation day’, and particularly after the assumption of office by President Trump — to abide by its commitments under the JCPOA”, the statement reads.
The press release calls the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA “unlawful” which renders “non-compliance with the Security Council resolution 2231 (2015)” and urges that Washington must be held accountable for its action.
Iran faces increased U.S. pressure and looming sanctions after Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from a 2015 international deal over Iran’s nuclear program.
Addressing a gathering of Iranian diplomats, Rouhani said: “Mr Trump, don’t play with the lion’s tail, this would only lead to regret,” the state new agency IRNA reported.
“You are not in a position to incite the Iranian nation against Iran’s security and interests,” Rouhani said, in an apparent reference to reported efforts by Washington to destabilize Iran’s Islamic government.
In Washington, U.S. officials familiar with the matter told Reuters that the Trump administration has launched an offensive of speeches and online communications meant to foment unrest and help pressure Iran to end its nuclear program and its support of militant groups.
Current and former U.S. officials said the campaign paints Iranian leaders in a harsh light, at times using information that is exaggerated or contradicts other official pronouncements, including comments by previous administrations.
Rouhani scoffed at Trump’s threat to halt Iranian oil exports and said Iran has a dominant position in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping waterway.
“Anyone who understands the rudiments of politics doesn’t say ‘we will stop Iran’s oil exports’...we have been the guarantor of the regional waterway’s security throughout history,” Rouhani said, cited by the semi-official ISNA news agency.
Rouhani’s apparent threat earlier this month to disrupt oil shipments from neighboring countries came in reaction to efforts by Washington to force all countries to stop buying Iranian oil.
Washington initially planned to totally shut Iran out of global oil markets after Trump abandoned the deal that limited Iran’s nuclear ambitions, demanding all other countries to stop buying its crude by November.
But it has somewhat eased its stance since, saying that it may grant sanction waivers to some allies that are particularly reliant on Iranian supplies.
