Wrong Element
Sentient Onion
- Joined
- May 5, 2002
- Posts
- 24,909
Back in the 2008 election cycle, Lasher had a GB thread that ran the length of the campaign -- a place to post and discuss the latest polls. I thought it went well, so as we approach one year out from Election Day, I figured why not do it again?
Off-topic digressions aren't necessarily encouraged, but will not be heavily policed. You can take the boy of the GB, yadda yadda.
Let us begin with the new Suffolk University/USA Today poll of the Republican campaign (September 24-28, +/- 5 percent):
Donald Trump 23%
Ben Carson 13%
Cara C. Fiorina 13%
Marco Rubio 9%
John E. Bush 8%
Rafael E. Cruz 6%
Mike Huckabee 2%
John Kasich 2%
Randal Paul 2%
Chris Christie 1%
Piyush Jindal 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Note: Among everyone in the poll, and not just the subset of Republicans who were asked who they were supporting, Trump's favorability rating was only 27%, the lowest of any of the candidates they asked about.
FWIW, Obama's favorability rating in the poll was 47%.
"Expert" analysis: My main takeaways from this poll are
1. Trump's momentum has stalled, which is not the same as it being reversed (obviously he couldn't keep rising forever). Two full weeks since the last debate that was supposedly so bad for him, it's obvious now he wasn't seriously weakened.
2. Rubio is now consistently polling ahead of Bush, which is a new development and not a positive one for Bush. Rubio might have been a Tea Party guy five years ago, but he's acceptable to the kingmakers, and this is a good place to be. Bush right now is relying on being, once the voting begins and the money people start getting serious, the top-rated guy who can actually potentially get elected. He needs to at least get back in front of Rubio pronto, if not the three currently in the lead.
3. That gap between the top six candidates and the others is one that I've seen in at least one other recent poll. It's reminiscent of the way runners gradually get dropped from the lead pack in a marathon. And if it keeps up, I can foresee a scenario where everyone below that top six might get left out of a future debate. These guys don't have a lot of time left to turn it around.
Off-topic digressions aren't necessarily encouraged, but will not be heavily policed. You can take the boy of the GB, yadda yadda.
Let us begin with the new Suffolk University/USA Today poll of the Republican campaign (September 24-28, +/- 5 percent):
Donald Trump 23%
Ben Carson 13%
Cara C. Fiorina 13%
Marco Rubio 9%
John E. Bush 8%
Rafael E. Cruz 6%
Mike Huckabee 2%
John Kasich 2%
Randal Paul 2%
Chris Christie 1%
Piyush Jindal 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Note: Among everyone in the poll, and not just the subset of Republicans who were asked who they were supporting, Trump's favorability rating was only 27%, the lowest of any of the candidates they asked about.
FWIW, Obama's favorability rating in the poll was 47%.
"Expert" analysis: My main takeaways from this poll are
1. Trump's momentum has stalled, which is not the same as it being reversed (obviously he couldn't keep rising forever). Two full weeks since the last debate that was supposedly so bad for him, it's obvious now he wasn't seriously weakened.
2. Rubio is now consistently polling ahead of Bush, which is a new development and not a positive one for Bush. Rubio might have been a Tea Party guy five years ago, but he's acceptable to the kingmakers, and this is a good place to be. Bush right now is relying on being, once the voting begins and the money people start getting serious, the top-rated guy who can actually potentially get elected. He needs to at least get back in front of Rubio pronto, if not the three currently in the lead.
3. That gap between the top six candidates and the others is one that I've seen in at least one other recent poll. It's reminiscent of the way runners gradually get dropped from the lead pack in a marathon. And if it keeps up, I can foresee a scenario where everyone below that top six might get left out of a future debate. These guys don't have a lot of time left to turn it around.
