The coming collapse of the Taliban

[Counselor706]

The Taliban should savor its triumph while it can, for it is unlikely to survive much beyond this fleeting moment of victory. And those countries in the region that are similarly disposed to celebrate America’s defeat should also enjoy the moment while it lasts, for the coming collapse of the Taliban is likely to be more a curse than a blessing.

That the Taliban is unlikely to outlive the now-defunct Afghan national government (ANG) by much might seem a far-fetched claim. But the history of the movement — and that of the mujahedeen, which defeated the Soviets and their puppet regime in the late 1980s and early 1990s respectively — strongly suggests that this will almost certainly be the case.

The result will be a situation in which Tajik militants of Jamaat Ansarullah, Uzbek groups like Katibat Imam al-Bukhari, Uighur fighters of the Turkestan Islamic Party from China’s Xinjiang region and others all become the core of new ethnic statelets, each conducting its own foreign relations and perhaps taking steps to liberate their oppressed compatriots in neighboring countries.

Whatever the specific outcome, it is a mistake to assume that the future of Afghanistan’s domestic politics or foreign policy will be determined by a unified Taliban government more or less rationally pursuing its interests. Given the chaos and conflict that are likely to ensue, those who are currently celebrating the fall of Afghanistan may soon come to wish for the good old days when the Americans kept at least a partial lid on things.

Source

 

[pecksniff]

It sounds increasingly like the Taliban is the only nationalizing, unifying force in the country.

And according to that article, not enough of one to last.

Heck, things might even go better if they gave Communism another try.

 

[Counselor706]

Kabul explosion signals opening of jihadi civil war in Afghanistan

A former member of the U.S. State Department said the real purpose of Thursday's suicide attack in Kabul, which killed 13 U.S. service members and scores of Afghans, was "an opening salvo of a civil war ISIS-K is seeking to fight against the Taliban.

The ISIS-K suicide bombing marked the deadliest day for American forces in Afghanistan since August 2011.

"We in the West tend to think of the target being Americans," Harnisch told Fox News. "The real purpose was to attract potential recruits into its ranks, and also to really launch a civil war against the Taliban and other groups fighting along the periphery."

"ISIS-K’s objective was to undermine the credibility of the Taliban by showing Afghans and the world that the Taliban is incapable of providing security," Harnisch claimed. "The attack was a huge propaganda victory," he continued. "Aspiring jihadists all over the world saw that and they're saying, ‘ISIS is the one in charge here.’

Source

 

[Rightguide]

It sounds increasingly like the Taliban is the only nationalizing, unifying force in the country.

And according to that article, not enough of one to last.

Heck, things might even go better if they gave Communism another try.

All you think about is the establishment of communism.

 

[Rightguide]

Source

I'm not wholly convinced the Afghan people want to be governed by either the Taliban or it's alternatives. There is a strong force being assembled in the Panjshir Valley:


A New Northern Alliance Against The Taliban Is Forming In Afghanistan's Panjshir Valley (Updated)
The former First Vice President of Afghanistan has claimed the mantle of the country's legitimate leader and is rallying forces to his cause.
BY JOSEPH TREVITHICK AUGUST 18, 2021

While the Taliban now controls virtually all of Afghanistan, including the country's capital, Kabul, one region, the Panjshir Valley, remains outside of the group's tightening grip. Now, a resistance movement is forming there, led by, among others, Amrullah Saleh, who had been First Vice President of Afghanistan until the collapse of the internationally-recognized government this past weekend, and now claims to be the legitimate leader of the country.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...an-is-forming-in-afghanistans-panjshir-valley

 

[pecksniff]

I'm not wholly convinced the Afghan people want to be governed by either the Taliban or it's alternatives. There is a strong force being assembled in the Panjshir Valley:


A New Northern Alliance Against The Taliban Is Forming In Afghanistan's Panjshir Valley (Updated)
The former First Vice President of Afghanistan has claimed the mantle of the country's legitimate leader and is rallying forces to his cause.
BY JOSEPH TREVITHICK AUGUST 18, 2021

While the Taliban now controls virtually all of Afghanistan, including the country's capital, Kabul, one region, the Panjshir Valley, remains outside of the group's tightening grip. Now, a resistance movement is forming there, led by, among others, Amrullah Saleh, who had been First Vice President of Afghanistan until the collapse of the internationally-recognized government this past weekend, and now claims to be the legitimate leader of the country.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...an-is-forming-in-afghanistans-panjshir-valley

Well, they'll have to thrash all that out without foreign participation, this time.

I hope.

 

[Rightguide]

Well, they'll have to thrash all that out without foreign participation, this time.

I hope.

Many of those retreating Afghan soldiers have fled into the Panjshir Valley, taking aircraft, weapons, and vehicles with them. I wouldn't be surprised if the CIA doesn't already have their paramilitary operatives in the valley organizing an intelligence and support capability now as we speak.

 

[vastiesmith100]

maybe we can send joe over there

to help them.

 

[pecksniff]

All you think about is the establishment of communism.

It was good enough to hold Yugoslavia together, and when it went away . . . well, I guess what comes next in Afghanistan might be something similar.