The Blue State Exodus Accelerates

[BabyBoomer50s]

Each spring the IRS publishes data on the movement of adjusted gross income and taxpayers across state lines from year to year. The latest data shows that Illinois lost net 105,000 people in 2021 and a loss of $10.9 billion in AGI. The state lost $8.5 billion in 2020 and $6 billion in 2019. New York’s income loss increased to $24.5 billion in 2021 from $19.5 billion in 2020 and $9 billion in 2019. California lost $29.1 billion in 2021, more than triple what it did in 2019.

in contrast, Florida gained $39.2 billion—up from $23.7 billion in 2020 and $17.7 billion in 2019. About $9.8 billion of the total arrived from New York, $3.9 billion from Illinois, $3.7 billion from New Jersey and $3.5 billion from California.

Texas attracted a net $10.9 billion in 2021, following a gain of $6.3 billion in 2020 and $4 billion in 2019. More than than half of Texas’s income gain in 2021 came from California. The Golden State also sent $4.4 billion to Nevada and $2.7 billion to Arizona.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/illinois-j-b-pritzker-taxes-states-irs-ec3da356

 

[phrodeau]

Great, maybe now the red states will need less federal aid.

 

[IrezumiKiss]

BREAKING NEWSFLASH: Americans move from state to state within their own country for various reasons over the span of time. We'll get back to this utterly puzzling and nigh-incomprehensible phenomenon after a word from our sponsors.

 

[Holy_Seduction]

Each spring the IRS publishes data…

Irezumikiss: ‘We'll get back to this utterly puzzling and nigh-incomprehensible phenomenon after a word from our sponsors.’

… the commercial winds down.

The ‘blue-state exodus’ idea tries to draw a straight line from a desired economic environment to GOP policies. But does straight line thinking really do good work?

The cost of housing, healthcare, and other basic necessities can lead to migration. And some states as TX and FL have lower living costs and are gaining population. But is it correlation or causation we see

With relatively high state and local taxes, IL and CA are losing people while TX and FL with no state income tax are gaining.

But a fluid tendency of people/income to move between states doesn’t necessarily imply:

— that a mass exodus is underway, or
— that all blue states are losing population

Also, other factors as job opportunities, quality of life, and climate may all inform people's decisions about where to live.

TX and FL have no state income tax; they fund state budgets from other revenue sources. Both have large populations and economies, which generate significant revenue from sales taxes, property taxes, and other fees and assessments.

TX relies heavily on petroleum industry revenue, a major driver if the TX economy. FL’s economy is driven in part by tourism, which generates significant revenue from sales taxes on hotel rooms, rental cars, and other tourist-related activities. FL also had a large retiree population, which adds to the economy via spending on housing, healthcare, and other services.

It’s easy enough to point to constitutional spending limits that prevent TX from spending over a certain percentage of its revenue each year, or FL’s requirement of a balanced budget. And ‘business friendly environment will attract corporations.

But specific conditions ALLOWING some states to implement such policies cannot be replicated everywhere. A state either has substantial petroleum reserves or it does not.

Moreover, an absence of state income tax may disproportionately affect low-income residents who may be unable to afford high sales taxes or other costs. Poorer persons living in such environments would experience such policies as deep class attacks involving super-exploitation.

Too many factors and qualifications hinder the desired ‘straight line’ connection from reactionary GOPolicies to the economic Nirvana some want us to believe lies just around the corner for those bold enough simply to flip political colors.

This resembles a business scam that promises a quick and easy way to the good life but requires some partisan commitment rather than money up front or personal information before they can access the promised benefits.

Business persons try to avoid economic scams. The same should apply for voters.

 

[Chernosoth]

States with booming populations build more infrastructure. With so many wealthy people moving in and raising home prices, they have plenty of construction money. 20 years later they don't have the money to maintain the infrastructure. And we probably have a severe economic crash coming, so that would be a bad time to be stuck with a mortgage on an inflated home price. Leaving a blue state could be wise, depending on what red or purple state is the destination. Definitely not Texas or Florida.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Another interesting aspect of the Blue State Exodus (BSE) is that escapees from high-tax Blue states earn more and therefore pay more in taxes than their replacements. Taxpayers leaving Illinois and New York made about $30,000 to $40,000 more than those arriving. Among those who left Illinois, 28% of made between $100,000 to $200,000 per year and 23% made $200,000 or more.

In contrast, the average AGI of a Florida newcomer in 2021 was about $150,000—more than double that of taxpayers who left. High earners spend more, which yields higher sales tax revenue. This helped Florida post a record $22 billion budget surplus last year. California is forecasting a $29.5 billion deficit.

It comes as no surprise that with this income migratoon, Florida and other low-tax states lead the country in job growth.

 

[Bray123]

When DeSantis manages to shut down the theme parks and the rest of the tourist industries that drive Florida economically, he'll introduce income tax and claim it as a victory for anti-wokism.

 

[RoryN]

People I've spoken to, who've moved to red states, talk about how easy it is to take advantage of the dummies there.

 

[ll74]

And they're all going to continue to vote blue.

Can't wait