JackLuis
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- Sep 21, 2008
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As we start this 194th Week, Trump is down in the polls, but are they predictors of what will happen in November?
Will pollsters let us down in 2020?
As we saw in 2016 the polls are not predictors of the future. Now some (Pilot) will say that Comey jinxed the landslide with his last minute announcement of "More E-Mails!!!" and some will say that 3rd party candidates diluted the vote, allowing Trump to bypass Clinton in key states. Others will say that Hillary was a poor choice by the DNC and depressed the vote and Bernie should have gotten the nod to beat Trump.
It all comes down to how many voters will turn out. Can we get an unprecedented 85% to vote this year?
Will pollsters let us down in 2020?
If the polls are to be believed, Democratic nominee Joe Biden is the favorite to win the 2020 election against his Republican opponent, President Donald Trump. At the time of this writing, FiveThirtyEight.com, which aggregates and analyzes polls, gives him a 76 percent chance of winning; all eleven of the most recent polls listed at RealClearPolitics predict a Biden victory with an average spread of almost six points.
And yet — as anyone who followed the 2016 election remembers — pollsters heavily favored Clinton to beat Trump when she was the Democratic nominee. Clinton supporters who felt confident of her victory on election night 2016 have a right to feel once bitten, twice shy about trusting polls again. Should we all feel similarly suspicious of polling firms in the lead-up to the 2020 election?
As we saw in 2016 the polls are not predictors of the future. Now some (Pilot) will say that Comey jinxed the landslide with his last minute announcement of "More E-Mails!!!" and some will say that 3rd party candidates diluted the vote, allowing Trump to bypass Clinton in key states. Others will say that Hillary was a poor choice by the DNC and depressed the vote and Bernie should have gotten the nod to beat Trump.
It all comes down to how many voters will turn out. Can we get an unprecedented 85% to vote this year?