Syria: What now?

[Politruk]

After 13 years of civil war, Bashar al-Assad and his government are gone. The ascendant rebel force are Islamists with (past) ties to al-Qaeda, backed by Turkey (Assad was backed by Iran). Meanwhile, the northeast is still controlled by the mostly Kurdish state of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, a/k/a Rojava. The Israelis have occupied a swathe of Syrian territory around the Golan Heights, ostensibly to keep any hostile forces away from Israel's border.

And apparently Assad's Prime Minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, is still Prime Minister for the moment, heading a transitional government.

So what happens next? Can a situation like in post-Hussein Iraq, with religious/ethnic strife and ethnic cleansing, be avoided?

 

[Politruk]

I guess we should consider this the final act of the Arab Spring.

 

[Politruk]

Here's the problem: Syria is 75% Sunni Muslim, 13% Shia Muslim, 10% Christian. In nonreligious ethnic terms, 80-85% Arab, 10% Kurdish, 4-5% Turkmen.

 

[Politruk]

Biden says the U.S, will "support" Syria during the transition -- which does not clarify which factions we will support against which, except that the U.S. is definitely against the remnants of the performance-art collective formerly known as ISIS, and is targeting them with airstrikes.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Here's the problem: Syria is 75% Sunni Muslim, 13% Shia Muslim, 10% Christian. In nonreligious ethnic terms, 80-85% Arab, 10% Kurdish, 4-5% Turkmen.

Soon to be 0% Christian

 

[Rightguide]

We need to stay out of it.

 

[Politruk]

We need to stay out of it.

Even if the oilfields are threatened?

 

[Rightguide]

Even if the oilfields are threatened?

We need to stay out of it.

 

[Politruk]

We need to stay out of it.

You may be sure that, under Biden or under Trump, U.S. military force will be used to protect the oilfields whenever necessary.

 

[Rightguide]

You may be sure that, under Biden or under Trump, U.S. military force will be used to protect the oilfields whenever necessary.

We must protect American citizens but maybe they shouldn't have been there in the first place. There's plenty of oil right here in America.

 

[Noor]

After today, I wonder who isn’t in Syria, so many players…

 

[Politruk]

According to this, the main factions in Syria now are:

Hayat Tharir al-Sham (HTS): The newly victorious faction. Islamists, formerly aligned with al-Qaeda.

Syrian National Army (SNA): Turkish-backed, anti-Kurdish.

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Kurdish, in the northeast.

Turkey

Russia

Iran

Israel -- occupying territory around the Golan Heights.

U.S. -- 900 troops present, ostensibly partnered with the Kurdish SDF to fight the remnants of ISIS.

 

[Politruk]

And apparently Assad's Prime Minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, is still Prime Minister for the moment, heading a transitional government.

Nope -- new interim PM.

 

[Politruk]

Blinken weighs in.

The U.S. government would “recognize and fully support” a future Syrian government that results from an inclusive and transparent transition process, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday, outlining a first set of principles regarding the Biden administration’s hopes to influence discussions over Syria’s future after the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad.


In a statement, Blinken called for a “Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political transition.” He said that the “process should lead to credible, inclusive and nonsectarian governance that meets international standards of transparency and accountability.”
Were the United States to recognize a future Syrian government — and potentially to lift sanctions that have long crimped the country’s economy — it would be a significant boost to Syria’s leaders. The Biden administration is using that promise as leverage at a moment when Syria’s future is deeply uncertain and in an effort to get Middle Eastern nations to do the same. U.S. officials are mindful that Middle Eastern leaders started reintegrating Assad into the Arab League last year in a step that they thought was ill-advised, in part because Assad didn’t have to make concessions in exchange.

All very innocuous and diplomatic, of course.

 

[Politruk]

After today, I wonder who isn’t in Syria, so many players…

Well, see post #12.

 

[BAstoicguy]

Matthew Petti at Reason.com: https://reason.com/2024/12/09/whats-left-for-the-u-s-to-do-in-syria/

 

[Politruk]

The Israelis are still bombing.

 

[Politruk]

Today, the Israelis are still bombing.

 

[Politruk]

Damn! The Israelis are still bombing!

 

[Bray123]

The great peace-maker and wanted war-criminal of the world, Benjamin Netanyahu is still bombing neighboring countries.

He is supported by the US and would not survive more than a few weeks without that continued support. This is one reason why so many people around the globe hate America.

 

[Politruk]

The great peace-maker and wanted war-criminal of the world, Benjamin Netanyahu is still bombing neighboring countries.

He is supported by the US and would not survive more than a few weeks without that continued support. This is one reason why so many people around the globe hate America.

I do hope Netanyahu will someday suffer the fate of Milosevic.

 

[gxnn]

Syria has changed from a sovereign country to a geographical name only. The only party that has won the librazation is the royal family of Assad, who is not worried about the life and death of his people anymore and is thinking about how to spend his huge amount of money happily.

 

[Politruk]

Syria has changed from a sovereign country to a geographical name only. The only party that has won the librazation is the royal family of Assad, who is not worried about the life and death of his people anymore and is thinking about how to spend his huge amount of money happily.

But Syria's more important location will not allow it to indefinitely remain a failed state like Libya or Somalia. Someday soon, somebody will be in charge.

 

[Politruk]

The Israelis are still bombing!

 

[LLCox]

The Israelis are still bombing!