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Storm #11 - Jeanne

linuxgeek

linuxgeek

Rogue Scholar
Joined
Feb 1, 2004
Posts
32,718
At this point, the only thing which comes to mind is the line from Jason v. Freddy--Don't you ever fucking die?!?!

Since it is expected to be a hurricane by tomorrow, i figured I'd go ahead and get its thread going.

Tropical Depression/Storm & Hurricane FAQ

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104W5+GIF/142103W5.gif

http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/Gif/atl.latest.gif

http://www.ocares.org/Image/latest.jpg

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/current/curwx_600x405.jpg

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/tropical.gif

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200411_model.gif

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/upload/10/windfield.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.kmlb/latest.gif

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p20-r/SI.kmlb/latest.gif


NOAA Surface Pressure maps:
Atlantic analysis: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_sfcbw.gif

Forecasts
500mb:
24h: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hr500bw.gif
48h: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hr500bw.gif
96h: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hr500bw.gif

Surface:
24h: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hrbw.gif
48h: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif
96h: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif
 
Last edited:
Well, her name is Jeanne
She looks like a hairy goat
And smells like one, too


Sigh, I can't even BEGIN to get creative about this cuntorfuck.


FUCK

OFF,

JEANNE!
 
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED

000
WTNT31 KNHC 142117
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2004

...CORRECTED DAY OF WEEK IN MAXIMUM WIND SECTION

...JEANNE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

...HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABRERA SOUTHWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... AND ST. MARTEEN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR ST. CROIX LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES ... 65 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...16.8 N... 63.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

000
WTNT41 KNHC 142052
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM JEANNE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 998 MB...DOWN 4 MB IN 2 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 58 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 46-KT SURFACE WIND...AND THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SINCE THE RECON FIX.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/08...ALTHOUGH THE TWO RECON FIX POSITIONS SUGGEST THE MOTION COULD BE CLOSER TO 285 DEGREES. THE 18Z 500 MB HEIGHT AT SAN JUAN HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ...SUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS HOLDING STEADY. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE BAM MODELS AND NOGAPS...MOVE JEANNE IMMEDIATELY NORTHWESTWARD AND TAKE THE CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE PAST 18-HR MOTION OF JEANNE AND THE 18Z SAN JUAN UPPER-AIR DATA. SO IN THE SHORT TERM...JEANNE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO IN 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN SKIRT THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AFTER THAT THROUGH 48 HOURS. WHILE THE SPECIFIC SYNOPTIC DETAILS OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF JEANNE WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW JEANNE TO MOVE ALMOST DUE NORTH AFTER 72 HOURS ALONG 70W LONGITUDE. GIVEN THE GFS RECENT POOR HISTORY OF FORECASTING TOO WEAK OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP A STRONG RIDGE BETWEEN JEANNE AND IVAN THROUGH 120 HOURS...AND TAKE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

JEANNE HAS DEVELOPED AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE CYCLONE NEARS PUERTO RICO. THIS OUTFLOW PATTERN...COMBINED WITH NEARLY 29C SSTS AND A VERY TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AS NOTED IN THE RECON DATA...SHOULD ALLOW JEANNE TO POSSIBLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES PUERTO RICO. AFTER THAT...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HISPANIOLA SHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING UNTIL AFTER 72 HOURS...WHEN JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...AND NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME EASTERLY IN DIRECTION.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 16.8N 63.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 17.4N 65.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 18.1N 67.0W 65 KT...INLAND PUERTO RICO
36HR VT 16/0600Z 18.9N 68.6W 65 KT...NEAR DOM. REPUBLIC
48HR VT 16/1800Z 19.7N 70.0W 65 KT...NEAR DOM. REPUBLIC
72HR VT 17/1800Z 20.9N 72.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 22.5N 74.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 24.5N 75.5W 75 KT
 
raindancer said:
Do you have any heavy machinery? I'm into power tools!
Click to expand...

hmmm.. best I can offer at the moment is a drill, dremel, & circular saw.
 
"J" is the tenth letter of the alphabet, not the eleventh.
 
Re: Re: Storm #11 - Jeanne

kotori said:
"J" is the tenth letter of the alphabet, not the eleventh.
Click to expand...

ya're right. There was a TD#10 that didn't get named.

Of course, at this rate, I am wondering what the plan is if we get more than 21 named storms.
 
Re: Re: Re: Storm #11 - Jeanne

linuxgeek said:
ya're right. There was a TD#10 that didn't get named.

Of course, at this rate, I am wondering what the plan is if we get more than 21 named storms.
Click to expand...


:rolleyes:
 
Who in fuck did Fla. piss off!?!?!?

Besides the US electorate?
 
Re: Re: Re: Storm #11 - Jeanne

linuxgeek said:
ya're right. There was a TD#10 that didn't get named.

Of course, at this rate, I am wondering what the plan is if we get more than 21 named storms.
Click to expand...
I'd say use the other five letters first, then go to Aaron.
 
Re: Re: Re: Storm #11 - Jeanne

linuxgeek said:
ya're right. There was a TD#10 that didn't get named.

Of course, at this rate, I am wondering what the plan is if we get more than 21 named storms.
Click to expand...

Do you really think we'll make it to 21 named storms? Is hurricane season over by the beginning of November?
 
There simply does not seem to be an end to the hellish hurricane season this year. Sheeshhh...

Thanks Linux for keeping us all current on this information. :) Can I hold your barometer?? ;)
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Storm #11 - Jeanne

raindancer said:
Do you really think we'll make it to 21 named storms? Is hurricane season over by the beginning of November?
Click to expand...

November 1st is the LAST day of Hurricane Season. I'm throwing an Orgy Fiesta at my place, bring the Gats and both your lips!!!
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Storm #11 - Jeanne

Morcheeba said:
November 1st is the LAST day of Hurricane Season. I'm throwing an Orgy Fiesta at my place, bring the Gats and both your lips!!!
Click to expand...

We're cumming!
 
Get used to it

nitengale said:
There simply does not seem to be an end to the hellish hurricane season this year. Sheeshhh...
Click to expand...
I heard one guy from NOAA say this could be the start of a twenty-year cycle of heavy hurricane activity.
 
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