so, about that recession... house purchases at 10-month high in January

[butters]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-home-sales-jump-more-than-expected-january-month-high

New single-family home purchases rose 7.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 units, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv expected new home sales — which account for a small percentage of total sales — to rise just 0.6% last month.

"Sales are still far below levels seen a year ago, but this market is settling into what could be the new normal, one with a slower pace than seen during the pandemic and with fewer homes on the market and fewer transactions largely led by the affordability crunch," said Zillow senior economist Nicole Bachaud. "This is keeping many would-be buyers and sellers on the sidelines."

 

[Sean Renaud]

Honestly we desperately need to have a second word that means "recession" cus I have no money stocks and my wages went up every year, hell almost every month of the last few years. I don't give a shit if if the market goes down for a few years as long as unemployment remains low.

 

[Dribble]

The 1%ers are the only group buying. Removal of all competition, leaves a market where you see what we seeing here. It is a false indicator of the market

 

[butters]

The 1%ers are the only group buying. Removal of all competition, leaves a market where you see what we seeing here. It is a false indicator of the market

what 1%ers are buying houses in the $300K-$600K market? This isn't all down to rich people buying homes to rent out as part of a portfolio; cash sales made up roughly a third of the sales. There are those who want to get out of florida and selling their houses to those who want in.

The statewide median sale price in Florida for single-family homes in 2022 was $402,500, up 15.7% year-over-year. For condo-townhouse units, it was $306,500, up 21.6% year-over-year. The supply of for-sale homes continues to slowly build, easing inventory constraints in many markets across the state. Statewide inventory was higher last year than a year ago for both existing single-family homes, up 116.8%, and for condo-townhouse units, up 65.0%. The supply of single-family existing homes increased to a 2.7-months supply while existing condo-townhouse properties were at a 2.8-months supply in 2022.
https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/florida-housing-market

 

[ll74]

The 1%ers are the only group buying. Removal of all competition, leaves a market where you see what we seeing here. It is a false indicator of the market

I bought a house last year.

Not a 1%er.

 

[jaF0]

I tire of people bitching about how high interest rates are on mortgages and loans. What are mortgages now, 4-6%? I was paying over 10% at one time in the 80s. I don't remember what car loans were, but I want to say double digits. I was also getting 5% on regular passbook savings accounts and higher on CDs

Most banks now are still under 1% while a few are paying 3% on 'high yield savings' accounts and only a couple are at 5% or higher.

 

[Dribble]

All one has to do is look at who is buying in your county. Easy to get that information. Three out of four purchases will have an LLC association. Now...think...do you think those purchases are a single person buying their dream home?

 

[jaF0]

"Mortgage rates have fluctuated a great deal. For instance, in 1971 you could get a mortgage with a 7.54 percent interest rate — that rate steadily rose until 1981, when you would have had to pay a 16.64 percent interest rate on a home loan.
Rates on mortgages began to decline after 1981, but you still had to pay double digits until 1991 when the rate went down to 9.25 percent. "


"By 1968 the prime rate had climbed to 6.31 and in 1969 it jumped to 7.95 percent. In 1981 it reached its highest point — 18.87 percent — since 1949. Although the prime rate had been around the 3 percent mark until 1958 — except in 1957 when it rose to 4.3 percent — it didn't come down to that range again until 2009 when it hit 3.25 percent. The all-time high for the prime rate was 21.50 percent in 1980."


https://www.gobankingrates.com/banking/interest-rates/see-interest-rates-last-100-years/

 

[ll74]

I tire of people bitching about how high interest rates are on mortgages and loans. What are mortgages now, 4-6%? I was paying over 10% at one time in the 80s. I don't remember what car loans were, but I want to say double digits. I was also getting 5% on regular passbook savings accounts and higher on CDs

Most banks now are still under 1% while a few are paying 3% on 'high yield savings' accounts and only a couple are at 5% or higher.

We've been operating on a basically "free money" situation for decades. Interest rates were raised to deal with the overheating market which resulted from that situation.

 

[schism666]

The 1%ers are the only group buying. Removal of all competition, leaves a market where you see what we seeing here. It is a false indicator of the market

you're a doomsday idiot. ask your realtor friends how many deals they closed with the 1% this year.

 

[Dribble]

you're a doomsday idiot. ask your realtor friends how many deals they closed with the 1% this year.

Again...go check out the property sales at your County Clerk. This information is freely available. Hell, you can even buy certain apps and they do this. And yes...that includes realtor sales. Then come back and play with the adults.

 

[schism666]

Then come back and play with the adults.

your name is dribble and you have a vagina tree for an av. i'll take my chances with real-world experiences and not some moron telling me what i already know.

 

[KeithD]

The "coming recession" is all Republican antiadministration propaganda.

 

[HisArpy]

All one has to do is look at who is buying in your county. Easy to get that information. Three out of four purchases will have an LLC association. Now...think...do you think those purchases are a single person buying their dream home?

Add in the fact that droves of people are fleeing Blue States for Red States and you get 2 home "sales" out of the deal - selling the house in the Blue State and buying a new one in the Red State. California lost about 500k people last year, that's a lot of those "2 home sales" which is fairly large chunk of the market. Those fleeing NY are boosting the numbers too.

 

[Dribble]

your name is dribble and you have a vagina tree for an av. i'll take my chances with real-world experiences and not some moron telling me what i already know.

15% of all single occupant home purchases was by "investment" companies in the 1st Quarter of 2021. This percentage has grown every quarter since. The last quarter we have numbers on is the 4th Quarter 2022. If we take the existing increased trends and extrapolate that forward...guess what percentage that is in the 1st Quarter of 2023? Come on...let's play...guess

 

[butters]

plenty of people have small portfolios of property... maybe 2 to 4, which they rent out or tart up and resell for a nice profit. These same people are NOT your 1%ers

 

[Dribble]

plenty of people have small portfolios of property... maybe 2 to 4, which they rent out or tart up and resell for a nice profit. These same people are NOT your 1%ers

Question...do they own LLC's and accept money from investment brokers?

 

[ll74]

One thing to note - the housing market was on fire. It was the primary driver of inflation. Interest rate hikes literally targeted that market

 

[Dribble]

Look folks...the data is freely available. This is the new "investment opportunity" that has grown from nothing to almost 3/4 of all housing purchases in the last few years. Ask your investment manager...I am sure they can point you to some reliable firms. Not all of them are. And the result? Market values reflect the competition bidding on common opportunities. Not the real value (tax assay from your County). In other words...it is just a glorified ponzi as long as new investors keep tossing in their money

Edit: totally legal ponzi

 

[Dribble]

One thing to note - the housing market was on fire. It was the primary driver of inflation. Interest rate hikes literally targeted that market

Exactly.

 

[ishtat]

Inflation is a concern but it is not the fundamental economic problem we face. It may become easier or harder to buy a home as interest rates change, but the fact that an individual faces that issue is a problem of an affluent society. The real problem is structural and of much longer standing: 10% of the population is so poor that they cannot afford any accommodation at all, and have no prospect of getting out of that hole. Poorly educated, chronically unemployed, poor rural whites and equally poor inner city minorities face the same survival problem every day. This 'underclass' of institutionalized poverty has been in place since at least the GFC 15 years ago.

Political parties of both right and left have no interest in resolving this problem, the aspirational middle and lower middle economic classes will continue to fret about interest rates and as regular voters they will get some traction. Societies human detritus has been abandoned and no-one is yet prepared to acknowledge, let alone fix it.

 

[LLCox]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-home-sales-jump-more-than-expected-january-month-high

I have no link but I heard Black Rock is buying homes hand over fist. Those fuckers are buying the world, every time I read the financial world there is Black Rock at the top

 

[Rightguide]

Meanwhile back to reality:

The Fed is gearing up for a longer-than-expected inflation fight

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-inflation-fight-longer-pce-index-173353572.html

 

[Dribble]

I have no link but I heard Black Rock is buying homes hand over fist. Those fuckers are buying the world, every time I read the financial world there is Black Rock at the top

One of the biggest players. But every city now has the equivalent composed of a few local elites. When they bid over the same properties the price has to increase. So many homes are being purchased within hours of listing. They then put the home back on market a few weeks later...and a bunch of new investors snag it up...at an increased value. It is crazy what is happening right now...and from what I have been told...totally legal

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

The US is not in a recession but is experiencing stubbornly high inflation. Last week’s inflation numbers confirmed inflation remains problematic. The Federal Reserve is continuing to combat inflation with interest rate hikes which impede economic growth and can trigger recessions. That has investors jittery. Markets fell sharply last week.