So, here is the basic just of the problem with using Farr's Law to predict covid.
In all viral outbreaks or pandemics, including covid-19,
... it is near impossible to know when the peak has occurred.
...it is near impossible to know how long the peak will occur.
...it hasn't ever been used for daily infections/death rates and has been tweeked to provide some prediction uses and it still has the same problems I've mentioned above.
Conager is probably right in using Farr's Law and he is assuming a high spiking peak and distribution over what seems to be a very short period of time(x-axis).
If the peak occurs of large time periods, say a decade or more, then infection and death rates will remain high for extended periods and will have lots of peaks and dips over that time period. Viral mutations play a significant role in reestablishing ample number of re-infection to allow this to play out over long time periods.
After the fact, we will all eventually know where the peak was after a lot of deaths and Farr's Law will shine true.
In all viral outbreaks or pandemics, including covid-19,
... it is near impossible to know when the peak has occurred.
...it is near impossible to know how long the peak will occur.
...it hasn't ever been used for daily infections/death rates and has been tweeked to provide some prediction uses and it still has the same problems I've mentioned above.
Conager is probably right in using Farr's Law and he is assuming a high spiking peak and distribution over what seems to be a very short period of time(x-axis).
If the peak occurs of large time periods, say a decade or more, then infection and death rates will remain high for extended periods and will have lots of peaks and dips over that time period. Viral mutations play a significant role in reestablishing ample number of re-infection to allow this to play out over long time periods.
After the fact, we will all eventually know where the peak was after a lot of deaths and Farr's Law will shine true.
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