4est_4est_Gump
Run Forrest! RUN!
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COAL!
In your stocking...
In your stocking...
Santa Claus Rally
- Thread starter 4est_4est_Gump
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4est_4est_Gump
Run Forrest! RUN!
- Joined
- Sep 19, 2011
- Posts
- 89,007
Who can make heads or tails out of this shit?
(For the politicos, heads or partisan tales...)
(For the politicos, heads or partisan tales...)
...
1. The tightening of the yield curve so early in the lead-up and initial stage of Fed rate hikes is both unprecedented and recessionary-looking.
2. It’s highly likely that tightening reflects bond market concerns about a slowing economy and various economic bubbles that are about to pop.
If the economy was strengthening as widely believed, the yield curve ought to be widening, not collapsing.
Greenspan's first hike in four years was on 2004-06-30. Check out the yield curve and differentials ahead of and right after that hike. Compare to today.
Those who believe the yield curve must invert before a recession hits, need think about those two important points in addition to taking a look at recession in Japan.
A recession without a preceding yield curve inversion has not happened in the US before, but neither have yield spread differentials collapsed in the initial stages of a Fed tightening cycle.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
See graphs and charts @: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#RW87fqWk2RO2d7PD.99
1. The tightening of the yield curve so early in the lead-up and initial stage of Fed rate hikes is both unprecedented and recessionary-looking.
2. It’s highly likely that tightening reflects bond market concerns about a slowing economy and various economic bubbles that are about to pop.
If the economy was strengthening as widely believed, the yield curve ought to be widening, not collapsing.
Greenspan's first hike in four years was on 2004-06-30. Check out the yield curve and differentials ahead of and right after that hike. Compare to today.
Those who believe the yield curve must invert before a recession hits, need think about those two important points in addition to taking a look at recession in Japan.
A recession without a preceding yield curve inversion has not happened in the US before, but neither have yield spread differentials collapsed in the initial stages of a Fed tightening cycle.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
See graphs and charts @: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#RW87fqWk2RO2d7PD.99
