Same sex marriage issue hurting Obama with independent voters

[renard_ruse]

Gallup released a new poll on Friday showing that President Barack Obama’s controversial May 9 decision to back same-sex marriage is hurting his chances among independents.

The USA Today/Gallup poll of 1,013 adults — not likely voters — shows that 23 percent of independents say the decision will make them less likely to vote for Obama, while only 11 percent say it will make them more likely to vote for the president.

Similarly, 10 percent of Democrats say his decision will make them less likely to vote for Obama, while only 2 percent of Republicans say it will make them more likely to vote for Obama.

They’re small percentages, but more than enough to decide close races in critical swing states such as North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Florida...

http://dailycaller.com/2012/05/11/p...sh-hurts-him-with-independents/#ixzz1ugXi6CoQ

This is pretty much what I thought when He made the announcement. I couldn't figure out what the hell He was thinking from an electoral perspective or how it could help.

 

[renard_ruse]

This issue is not popular in several of the key swing states He won in 2008.

It may or may not gain him some support in certain "deep blue" states, but those are not in play anyway. The only states I could conceivably see it helping are in places like Oregon or New Hampshire, and even in these states I can't see it taking away from the economy or other issues.

On the other hand, not only will it probably hurt him among independents in key swing states, it will provide a motivation for the heretofore uninspired social conservative base to turn out for Romney.

 

[KingOrfeo]

This is pretty much what I thought when He made the announcement. I couldn't figure out what the hell He was thinking from an electoral perspective or how it could help.

The money helps.

 

[renard_ruse]

The money helps.

Sure, maybe that's the calculation. I still don't think on the whole it will make up for the negatives in key states.

 

[Derpman]

derp!

 

[eyer]

The only reason he flip-flopped was because his team was convinced they were going to start losing significant numbers of his base if he didn't submit to that base's pro-homosexual marriage demand. And with falling support from his own base, Obama was doomed to lose this November...

...Biden was the balloon employed to chart the approximate degree of negative response a pro-homosexual Administrative stance would attract from independents and whatever "right wing" voters were thinking of voting for him anyway.

Obama came out on the issue because he couldn't afford to lose any more of his base and he has, in fact, more solidified that base by proclaiming his full support of homosexual marriage - that's been fully evident in the celebratory response since Obama's declaration.

Obama is staking this election on his base; it'll be interesting discovering how many of his base don't actually support homosexual marriage.

 

[chas4037]

It is also possible that he simply decided to do the right thing.
Is discrimination the right thing?

Not in my bible!

 

[bronzeage]

This is pretty much what I thought when He made the announcement. I couldn't figure out what the hell He was thinking from an electoral perspective or how it could help.

Maybe he thinks everyone who has a gay brother, sister, son, or daughter will vote for him.

I wonder how many people that might be.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich were dead set against same sex marriage and couldn't get Republicans to vote for them. How much could it hurt Obama to be for it?

 

[KingOrfeo]

Maybe he thinks everyone who has a gay brother, sister, son, or daughter will vote for him.

I wonder how many people that might be.

Counting the closeted, a lot.

 

[phrodeau]

I predict that despite all the drum beating, evangelicals won't matter in this election. Rather than facing the choice between what they perceive as the lesser of two evils, they'll just stay home.

 

[Ldy_Sea]

Counting the closeted, a lot.

Not really
http://www.gallup.com/poll/6961/what-percentage-population-gay.aspx

The 2000 U.S. Census Bureau found that homosexual couples constitute less than 1% of American households. The Family Research Report says "around 2-3% of men, and 2% of women, are homosexual or bisexual." The National Gay and Lesbian Task Force estimates three to eight percent of both sexes. So who's right -- what percentage of the population is homosexual?

So between 1% to 8%. Not a lot at all. It could however swing the election if it was close. However the real reason is not principals or doing what the President believes. It was soley done for money. He was toldby a Pro GLBT PAC that they would not donate the millions they had available due to his not supporting gay marriage. Later that day or the next he made the announcement.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...A-cynical-cash-grab-lose-Democrats-votes.html

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...riage-moneybre84a0zb-20120511,0,6644021.story

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/10/obama-gay-marriage-us-politics

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/gay-marriage-reversal-means-cash-for-obama

http://articles.boston.com/2012-05-10/nation/31642626_1_gay-marriage-gay-community-obama-fund-raiser

 

[about_average]

People are more likely to make an effort to vote to deny people rights.
I think Obamas's position will likely cost him the election. Romney is not only dead set against same sex marriage, he's even against same sex civil unions and wants to codify that in the US Constitution.
I see conservatives who might not have voted because he isn't socially conservative enough coming out to vote solely because of Obama's stance, for fear he'll appoint SCOTUS judges who will recognize prohibiting it is unconstitutional.
I think Romney will win, will get a constitutional amendment to reflect his position about homosexuals and many marriages will become null.
It'll be another 20-30 years before the amendment is repealed and homosexuals can have the same rights as heterosexuals.

 

[TexasWife25]

People are more likely to make an effort to vote to deny people rights.
I think Obamas's position will likely cost him the election. Romney is not only dead set against same sex marriage, he's even against same sex civil unions and wants to codify that in the US Constitution.
I see conservatives who might not have voted because he isn't socially conservative enough coming out to vote solely because of Obama's stance, for fear he'll appoint SCOTUS judges who will recognize prohibiting it is unconstitutional.
I think Romney will win, will get a constitutional amendment to reflect his position about homosexuals and many marriages will become null.
It'll be another 20-30 years before the amendment is repealed and homosexuals can have the same rights as heterosexuals.

God that's a depressing thought.

 

[Ishmael]

Doh, go figure. Polls show that the subject is about evenly divided among the electorate. But every time it's been put to the vote the margin has been 20 pts against gay marriage. That's not a narrow margin, it's a landslide.

All of which points out;

You can't trust the polls on certain issues.

Obama trusted the polls.

Pay the price young prince, pay the price.

Ishmael

 

[mercury14]

Doh, go figure. Polls show that the subject is about evenly divided among the electorate. But every time it's been put to the vote the margin has been 20 pts against gay marriage. That's not a narrow margin, it's a landslide.

And in 1992 it would have been an 80pt margin.

Scared?

 

[KingOrfeo]

Maybe he thinks everyone who has a gay brother, sister, son, or daughter will vote for him.

I wonder how many people that might be.

Counting the closeted, a lot.

So between 1% to 8%. Not a lot at all.

It is if you count their relatives.

 

[KingOrfeo]

God that's a depressing thought.

Then don't let Romney win!

 

[Ishmael]

And in 1992 it would have been an 80pt margin.

Scared?

Of what moron? You either don't read, or understand, or believe a word I say here. If it's the latter there's nothing I can do, or even want to, it becomes your problem, not mine.

Ishmael

 

[KingOrfeo]

Of what moron?

Of the fact that public opinion on this point already has shifted with such amazing speed.

 

[Ishmael]

Over the years the issue, when put to vote, has been 60% against gay marriage. The closest vote was in Oregon, and as memory serves me right, that was a 16 pt margin against gay marriage.

Yet the morons continually remind me of polls that reflect noting remotely close to the results when put to the voters. Further, these morons, apparently, don't have a fucking clue as to my view on the subject even though there are years of history here.

And these morons continually try to engage me. I think they're queer.

Queer

Ishmael

 

[about_average]

God that's a depressing thought.

Yup, it is. It's unfortunate that people who want to control others' personal lives (like with the 18th Amendment) are a lot more likely to turn out than those who believe "it's none of my business", but it's also, obviously, right in keeping with the two distinct mindsets.
Ignoring the fact that same sex marriage has no business being voted on, if we had anywhere near 100% voter turnout that wouldn't be the case, or at least if same sex marriage was a ballot initiative.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Of the fact that public opinion on this point already has shifted with such amazing speed.

Polls dont count, votes do. And in the privacy of the ballot faggots lose.

 

[phrodeau]

It's only been nine years since state sodomy laws were struck down. But if you consider that gay sex has been legal in Canada since 1969, and in Mexico since 1872, you might wonder what "the people's will" ever had to do with American sodomy laws.

America wants to be considered a leader among nations, but in many ways it's a follower.

 

[Adre]

The whackadoodles are missing the main issues involved here. Obama espoused true conservatism here: states rights, and limited government intervention into our personal loves. About one hour ago, highly conservative Ted Olson, former Solicitor General, supported same-sex marriage 100 percent, and applauded Obama's statement on the issue. He basically said it was an issue of the heart and consistent with our Constitution.

The right wing bigots and racists here just hate queers, they have no consistent political opinion on the matter.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

The whackadoodles are missing the main issues involved here. Obama espoused true conservatism here: states rights, and limited government intervention into our personal loves. About one hour ago, highly conservative Ted Olson, former Solicitor General, supported same-sex marriage 100 percent, and applauded Obama's statement on the issue. He basically said it was an issue of the heart and consistent with our Constitution.

The right wing bigots and racists here just hate queers, they have no consistent political opinion on the matter.

Muslims, too. Muslims arent happy with Obama embracing faggots.