Putin the Puppet?

[ishtat]

Putin has prepared for the invasion of Ukraine for 10 years at least. He expected sanctions so he carefully amassed foreign currency reserves of over $600 million ( a lot for his small economy) What he did not expect was that the Russian Central Bank would itself be sanctioned, thus denying him the use of that vast resource. Biden's not dumb enough to stop Russian oil imports and incur damage domestically, but destroying the operations of the Russian Central Bank was at first sight, Biden's masterstroke. Before their stock markets stopped trading last week, Russian trading banks lost 95% of their value. They are now backed by a Central Bank incapable of fixing anything; this is real modern warfare in the globalized economy delivered by Joe Biden and the US Treasury. The Russian economy is broken.

However, there is a massive potential downside; the only person Putin can turn to for help is Xi. He has already decided to accept previously sub-standard wheat, coal, and iron ore supplies from Russia, and more help can be expected - but as always with China, it will come at a price. The price is that Putin's Russia will be required to make itself an economic vassal of the Emperor Xi.

The problem now for the USA is what concessions will it take by Russia to allow Biden to remove the economic boot from Putin's neck. Too soon, Putin will claim victory - too late and Xi will dominate the whole of Eurasia.

Compared to this tricky equation Taiwan is a relatively minor issue Xi can put off for now.

What do you think? The first reality that the West has to accept is that although what has happened to Ukraine and its people is appalling, they are in fact pawns in a much greater issue. The USA and Biden will have to play this carefully and I suspect very hard. Any outcome will involve permanent pain for Ukraine and Russia but containment of China is much more important.

 

[pecksniff]

I don't believe Xi is pulling Putin's strings, because I don't believe Xi much likes what Putin is doing right now.

 

[mayfly13]

Wow. Didn't see That coming. I was only wondering if China-Russia were in it together.

I googled your key words, and this article goes even one step further.
It claims that the same happened in 2014:

Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea brought it closer to China. 5 charts show why Putin’s Ukraine invasion could do the same​

"By 2012, China had become Russia’s largest trading partner .
Yet the key turning point for contemporary Sino-Russian ties came in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea. Subsequent Western sanctions pummeled the Russian economy.
Western sanctions post-Crimea were the “secret sauce” that made cooperation with China a key priority for Russian leaders. ” As the West sanctioned Russia, China deepened its economic ties with its neighbor, signing a series of energy deals—including the $400 billion Power of Siberia deal just three months after the annexation—that helped Russia bounce back economically."

https://fortune.com/2022/02/24/russ...sponse-war-putin-xi-jinping-trade-oil-energy/

 

[WillJ8787]

Wow. Didn't see That coming. I was only wondering if China-Russi were in it together.

I googled your key words, and this article goes even one step further.
It claims that the same happened in 2014:

Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea brought it closer to China. 5 charts show why Putin’s Ukraine invasion could do the same​

"By 2012, China had become Russia’s largest trading partner .
Yet the key turning point for contemporary Sino-Russian ties came in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea. Subsequent Western sanctions pummeled the Russian economy.
Western sanctions post-Crimea were the “secret sauce” that made cooperation with China a key priority for Russian leaders. ” As the West sanctioned Russia, China deepened its economic ties with its neighbor, signing a series of energy deals—including the $400 billion Power of Siberia deal just three months after the annexation—that helped Russia bounce back economically."

https://fortune.com/2022/02/24/russ...sponse-war-putin-xi-jinping-trade-oil-energy/

Its all that newly discovered oil just south of Crimea in the Sea.

 

[pecksniff]

Its all that newly discovered oil just south of Crimea in the Sea.

But, Russia already had plenty of oil before it annexed Crimea.

 

[ll74]

I've seriously never seen this much propaganda out of Russia... they're truly laying it out there

 

[pecksniff]

I don't see how Russia's war with Ukraine is in the PRC's interest.

 

[mayfly13]

Its all that newly discovered oil just south of Crimea in the Sea.

Your theory fits even better, actually.

Google says that Turkey discovered huge reserves in The Black Sea in 2020.
And that Romania-Bulgaria-Ukraine-Georgia are trying to make deals with US and Austria (via OMV Petrom and ExxonMobil):

Why the Black Sea could emerge as the world’s next great energy battleground​

"Turkey made international headlines in 2020 when it said reserves at its offshore Tuna-1 exploration zone may be as high as 405 billion cubic meters. Further reserves could be discovered in adjacent blocks.

In 2021, Romanian-Austrian integrated oil and gas company, OMV Petrom, which has been developing Romania’s Neptun Deep project together with US company ExxonMobil, has been seeking cooperation opportunities with neighboring countries....

In February 2021, it signed a memorandum of understanding with Naftogaz for joint gas exploration projects in Ukraine. Last summer, it increased its share in the Bulgarian Khan Asparuh project to 42.86% following the transfer of Spain Repsol’s 30% stake. The company also won a bid for exploration in Georgia’s offshore Block II."

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...as-the-worlds-next-great-energy-battleground/

 

[mayfly13]

Its all that newly discovered oil just south of Crimea in the Sea.

This thread is the best.

Please tell us more about it.
When do you think Putin started planning all this?

 

[mayfly13]

I guess we know now which countries could be next.

 

[Dribble]

I don't see how Russia's war with Ukraine is in the PRC's interest.

Oil market

 

[pecksniff]

I guess we know now which countries could be next.

Greece and Turkey?

 

[pecksniff]

Oil market

But, Russia had oil before starting this war.

 

[KeithD]

I don't see how Russia's war with Ukraine is in the PRC's interest.

It puts nearly all of Russia's military effort on a far-away border. Most people have no idea there ever was a bloody border war between Russia and China (Damansky Island) because how serious it was was successfully played down in public. The Russians and Chinese have always been at each other's throats no matter how they played it in public. I don't see either willingly being the puppet of the other.

 

[colddiesel]

It is worth noting that the Damansky island dispute of 1969 was eventually settled in China's favour in 1991. It is also worth noting that while all the other so called 'treaty ports' have been handed back to China, Outer Manchuria which was part of the Chinese empire for hundreds of years was ceded by force to the Russians in 1860. The Chinese have not forgotten because the cession included Sakhalin Island, Vladivostok, and about a million sq kilometres of territory. More importantly it gave Russia and denied China, access to the Sea of Japan. In 2004 the Russians conceded another 2 river islands to China.

China's desire to rectify these old humiliations will only grow in future.

 

[pecksniff]

It puts nearly all of Russia's military effort on a far-away border.

So, is Xi going to take advantage of that to invade Siberia?

 

[KeithD]

So, is Xi going to take advantage of that to invade Siberia?

No. There are no current circumstances making it advantageous. But you can bet he's going to ensure that Putin knows he's noticed that the Russian military has been degraded by corruption at the top as demonstrated by the logistics failures in the invasion of Ukraine.

 

[mayfly13]

I guess we know now which countries could be next.

Greece and Turkey?

The coastal ones Romania -Bulgaria -Turkey - Georgia.


As far as this current conflict is concerned, Ukraine borders on Romania and Moldova.
I guess both a military and an informational war.

Recently, Putin called the leaders of Moldova and Romania to threaten them re the "persecution" of the Russian minorities from their countries.
I don't know
---if it's based in reality (I suspect that Moldova and Romania, too imposed sanctions on their Russians, as most other countries did. And I know that over here, some Russian laypeople Did start to suffer discrimination from homegrown morons, Russian kids beaten up in school and so on).
--or if it's a pretext to either stop these two countries from providing support to Ukraine, or if it forshadows Putin's plan re the two.

Also, while the majority are afraid of Russia and were deeply moved by the plight of Ukrainians, unfortunately Moldova has been much more penetrated by pro-Putin propaganda., and has more pro-Putin fringe groups, than other EE countries. To the point that Moldova's president ordered an official decree to make it illegal for publications to say that Putin was in the right.

 

[colddiesel]

So, is Xi going to take advantage of that to invade Siberia?

Another No.

I think Pecksmith you need to re-focus. Look at Sino Russian history and Geo politics but think much longer term. Think like the Chinese. If and as Russia weakens militarily and economically, the Chinese will seek to take advantage of opportunities as they occur. It might take 20-50, maybe 100 years, but they will be ready. Siberia is no big deal but China with a base in the Sea of Japan would be massive for China, Russia, Japan, Korea and the USA - but not gunna happen any time soon.

You can be sure that the Chinese military have planned the possible scenarios - unlike the incompetent Russian Generals lack of planning for their attack on Ukraine.

 

[Chernosoth]

Russia looks more resilient than China now. China was so stable for thousands of years through many rounds of collapse because its village economy limited the severity of collapse. China is destroying its village economy in a frenzy of industrialization, which requires fossil fuels it doesn't have. In a war or just by economic self-destruction, China could be a wreck in a decade.

 

[ishtat]

The Asian Infrastructure Development Bank (A personal project of Xi's ) and controlled by China/India (Russia has 7%) has withdrawn from considering Russian and Belarussian applications. A similar Shanghai based inter government lender has also withdrawn as have a slew of Chinese Trading Banks. None of those decisions would have been taken without Xi's approval. It will not make headlines in the West, but Putin will know who is starting to turn the screws.

 

[Champakian]

I don't see how Russia's war with Ukraine is in the PRC's interest.

The enemy of my enemies...

 

[pecksniff]

The enemy of my enemies...

How is Ukraine China's enemy? I'm sure it is a country they never even think about unless they have to.

 

[pecksniff]

Russia looks more resilient than China now. China was so stable for thousands of years through many rounds of collapse because its village economy limited the severity of collapse. China is destroying its village economy in a frenzy of industrialization, which requires fossil fuels it doesn't have. In a war or just by economic self-destruction, China could be a wreck in a decade.

Gordon Chang predicted China's collapse in 2001. That it would collapse no later than 2011. Does it really look any closer now?

 

[ishtat]

The Russian central Bank issued a warning today that it "may not be able to meet its debt obligations on Bonds." If Russia defaults it will be their first since the 1917 revolution. Foreign currency withdrawals over 10,000 banned, Stock market closed, Interest rates doubled. Payments system crippled.

Elvira Nabiullina the Bank's boss, a smart dresser, often wears clothes appropriate to her announcements. Today she was dressed for a funeral - of the Russian economy.

Looks as though Joe Biden has Putin's balls in a vice. Good to have a tough guy in charge eh' ?