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Prof Triggernometry
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An interesting take on the possibility of a Russian Invasion of Ukraine:
Putin’s Asymmetric Blind Spot
Opinion
DECEMBER 24TH, 2021 BY GREGORY SIMS
OPINION — Perhaps it is just a reckless Khrushchevesque opening gambit, but Russia’s recent security demands suggest that Vladimir Putin’s condition for avoiding military action against Ukraine is Western acquiescence in converting Ukraine into a Russian vassal state. Given he also demands NATO roll back deployments of personnel and equipment to its 1997 positions, before Poland or the Baltic republics joined the alliance, it is not just Ukraine he wants to see neutered.
Russian officials never hesitate to raise their country’s genuinely horrific suffering at the hands of the Nazis during World War II when justifying their need for a cordon sanitaire at their borders, but their historical self-righteousness is highly selective. What they fail to mention, but what Russia’s neighbors will never forget, is that in 1932-33, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin precipitated a politically driven famine, the “Holodomor,” which killed nearly 5 million Ukrainians. This was followed by the 1937-38 Anti-Kulak campaign (NKVD Order 00844), resulting in the execution of another 400,000 people. The concurrent anti-Polish campaign (NKVD Order 00485) resulted in the execution of 100,000 ethnic Poles, and the Anti-Latvian campaign (NKVD Order 49990) killed more than 16,000 Latvians. Over a 15-month period, these hundreds of thousands of non-Russians were executed for the alleged crime of being “anti-Soviet.” Most were dispatched by a gunshot to the back of the neck and buried in unmarked mass graves. Many thousands more were imprisoned or deported to Siberia or Central Asia.
To this unimaginable slaughter, add the 1939 Nazi-Soviet partition of Poland and the execution of 22,000 captured Polish officers, the 1940 Soviet occupation and annexation of the Baltic states, and the 45 years of imposed communist rule in Central Europe after World War II and crushing of multiple uprisings against it. Can it be surprising that these post-Soviet states, once freed, would gravitate toward a defensive alliance for collective security? Perhaps their worries would have been alleviated had Russia cleanly broken with its Soviet past after 1991, but after halting steps under Boris Yeltsin, Putin turned back the clock on the expansion of civil liberties and candor about the Soviet past, which increasingly glorifies Stalin’s role.
Putin’s focus on NATO is disingenuous. Remember in 2013, Russia pressured then-President Viktor Yanukovych to terminate Ukraine’s steps toward an association agreement with the EU, seeking an economic not a military alliance. This prompted the “Maidan” uprising which ousted Yanukovych, quickly followed by Russia’s use of military force in the Donbas and outright annexation of Crimea. Only after the killing of Ukrainians and occupation of their territory by Russia did joining NATO become a serious Ukrainian national objective. Putin can blame himself for this.
Putin’s real fear, however, is not NATO. He knows its decisions are made by consensus, i.e., unanimously by all member states, thus the prospect of offensive military action by NATO against Russian aggression is negligible. His actual fear is that Ukraine will succeed in developing into a Europe-oriented democracy where state power is limited by a free press, independent judiciary, and the rule of law. Success in this endeavor by Ukraine, so close to Russia culturally and linguistically, would serve as an intolerable contrast to Putin’s authoritarian, state-centric vision for Russia’s future, and he must therefore prevent it.
More here:
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/putins-asymmetric-blind-spot
Putin’s Asymmetric Blind Spot
Opinion
DECEMBER 24TH, 2021 BY GREGORY SIMS
OPINION — Perhaps it is just a reckless Khrushchevesque opening gambit, but Russia’s recent security demands suggest that Vladimir Putin’s condition for avoiding military action against Ukraine is Western acquiescence in converting Ukraine into a Russian vassal state. Given he also demands NATO roll back deployments of personnel and equipment to its 1997 positions, before Poland or the Baltic republics joined the alliance, it is not just Ukraine he wants to see neutered.
Russian officials never hesitate to raise their country’s genuinely horrific suffering at the hands of the Nazis during World War II when justifying their need for a cordon sanitaire at their borders, but their historical self-righteousness is highly selective. What they fail to mention, but what Russia’s neighbors will never forget, is that in 1932-33, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin precipitated a politically driven famine, the “Holodomor,” which killed nearly 5 million Ukrainians. This was followed by the 1937-38 Anti-Kulak campaign (NKVD Order 00844), resulting in the execution of another 400,000 people. The concurrent anti-Polish campaign (NKVD Order 00485) resulted in the execution of 100,000 ethnic Poles, and the Anti-Latvian campaign (NKVD Order 49990) killed more than 16,000 Latvians. Over a 15-month period, these hundreds of thousands of non-Russians were executed for the alleged crime of being “anti-Soviet.” Most were dispatched by a gunshot to the back of the neck and buried in unmarked mass graves. Many thousands more were imprisoned or deported to Siberia or Central Asia.
To this unimaginable slaughter, add the 1939 Nazi-Soviet partition of Poland and the execution of 22,000 captured Polish officers, the 1940 Soviet occupation and annexation of the Baltic states, and the 45 years of imposed communist rule in Central Europe after World War II and crushing of multiple uprisings against it. Can it be surprising that these post-Soviet states, once freed, would gravitate toward a defensive alliance for collective security? Perhaps their worries would have been alleviated had Russia cleanly broken with its Soviet past after 1991, but after halting steps under Boris Yeltsin, Putin turned back the clock on the expansion of civil liberties and candor about the Soviet past, which increasingly glorifies Stalin’s role.
Putin’s focus on NATO is disingenuous. Remember in 2013, Russia pressured then-President Viktor Yanukovych to terminate Ukraine’s steps toward an association agreement with the EU, seeking an economic not a military alliance. This prompted the “Maidan” uprising which ousted Yanukovych, quickly followed by Russia’s use of military force in the Donbas and outright annexation of Crimea. Only after the killing of Ukrainians and occupation of their territory by Russia did joining NATO become a serious Ukrainian national objective. Putin can blame himself for this.
Putin’s real fear, however, is not NATO. He knows its decisions are made by consensus, i.e., unanimously by all member states, thus the prospect of offensive military action by NATO against Russian aggression is negligible. His actual fear is that Ukraine will succeed in developing into a Europe-oriented democracy where state power is limited by a free press, independent judiciary, and the rule of law. Success in this endeavor by Ukraine, so close to Russia culturally and linguistically, would serve as an intolerable contrast to Putin’s authoritarian, state-centric vision for Russia’s future, and he must therefore prevent it.
More here:
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/putins-asymmetric-blind-spot
