Political Map - Non-partisan

[Boxlicker101]

Here is an interesting map, that changes constantly. I don't know how accurate it is or where the info comes from, but it is interesting.

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

 

[impressive]

This one averages the major polls to arrive at its projections:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

 

[epiphany65]

Here is an interesting map, that changes constantly. I don't know how accurate it is or where the info comes from, but it is interesting.

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

Rather than saying "changes constantly" what you should say is it gets more blue with each passing day.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

I read a good article about polling. These shitwits mostly make it up as they go. Like...CBS and CNN figure blacks will flood the polls on election day and geezers will drop dead at precisely the same time. AP calculates that blacks and kiddies will do as they always do, and do something else besides vote....then bitch about Bush keeping them from voting.

 

[Boxlicker101]

This one averages the major polls to arrive at its projections:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

I think your map is better than mine, because yours shows "solid" and "leaning." Nine shows having won, even though the polls are very close.

 

[alyxen]

Here is a nice one that has historical voting results by state as well as current polling. Personally I enjoy looking at the historical data more so than the polls:

http://www.270towin.com/states/

 

[sweetness6280]

Yahoo gets their data from Real Clear Politics, but they call a state when a candidate is only two points ahead. I watch the Yahoo dashboard, easy to do when I'm logging into my email. But if I want a better representation of the close races, I will go to the Real Politics site.

I like the Yahoo dashboard because it lets you work your own scenarios.

ETA: That historical site is very cool.

 

[Boxlicker101]

Rather than saying "changes constantly" what you should say is it gets more blue with each passing day.

Actually, it's more red than blue, and will probably stay that way regardless of the outcome. This would be even moreso, if the states were in proportion of area, since the two biggest states are red.

I ealize that aea means nothing, but neithe do the figues this early.

 

[epiphany65]

Actually, it's more red than blue, and will probably stay that way regardless of the outcome. This would be even moreso, if the states were in proportion of area, since the two biggest states are red.

I ealize that aea means nothing, but neithe do the figues this early.

This early? What month is it where you live?! It's all over but the cryin'...

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

As much as I dislike McCain DONT BE SURPRISED IF HE WINS.

The Undecided count remains high and averaging polls means squat became voter sentiment is volatile before an election.

 

[Boxlicker101]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boxlicker101
Actually, it's more red than blue, and will probably stay that way regardless of the outcome. This would be even moreso, if the states were in proportion of area, since the two biggest states are red.

I realize that area means nothing, but neithe do the figues this early.

This early? What month is it where you live?! It's all over but the cryin'...

Presumably, it is the same month everywhere. What I mean is that the figures don't mean anything until late at night on November 4, and again on December 20. Right now, they are all estimates, and many of the state percentages are statistically even.

That's even before the Bradley effect, especially in places like Virginia and Florida.

 

[epiphany65]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boxlicker101
Actually, it's more red than blue, and will probably stay that way regardless of the outcome. This would be even moreso, if the states were in proportion of area, since the two biggest states are red.

I realize that area means nothing, but neithe do the figues this early.



Presumably, it is the same month everywhere. What I mean is that the figures don't mean anything until late at night on November 4, and again on December 20. Right now, they are all estimates, and many of the state percentages are statistically even.

That's even before the Bradley effect, especially in places like Virginia and Florida.

The Bradley Effect is a myth. It was the result of sloppy polling, not race. Besides, the McCain camp has all but conceded that they've lost.

 

[Liar]

Actually, it's more red than blue, and will probably stay that way regardless of the outcome. This would be even moreso, if the states were in proportion of area, since the two biggest states are red.

I ealize that aea means nothing, but neithe do the figues this early.

If you want to see relevant size, as in population and/or electoral votes, this is a pretty neat one, that gives a good visual of the race so far.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Carto/Oct26-c.html

 

[SweetPrettyAss]

The Bradley Effect is a myth. It was the result of sloppy polling, not race. Besides, the McCain camp has all but conceded that they've lost.

I'm not so sure about the Bradley Effect. I remember hearing commentators during the Democratic primary elections. Obama tended to consistently get a lower percntage of votes than the polls said he would. I don't have a lot of faith in commentators, but they were citing facts rather than their own opinions. I'm not sure if I can find any actual statistics about that; it was more an impression than anything else.

 

[voluptuary_manque]

I'm not so sure about the Bradley Effect. I remember hearing commentators during the Democratic primary elections. Obama tended to consistently get a lower percntage of votes than the polls said he would. I don't have a lot of faith in commentators, but they were citing facts rather than their own opinions. I'm not sure if I can find any actual statistics about that; it was more an impression than anything else.

Even if it were real, the Bradley Effect dates from forty years ago. Things ain't the same, now. Not to mention that it will have minimal effect in the states that really count, like California where Obama's lead is insurmountable.

 

[epiphany65]

Today, in an effort to boost morale amongst campaign aides, Steve Schmidt, McCain's top strategy advisor, told them "Being part of an effort that fails does not make you a loser; it makes you a competitor. What makes you a loser is curling up into the fetal position at a time of adversity. The only thing that would ever define anyone as a loser is to quit before it is over." It seems as though he's read the writing on the wall.

 

[Guest]

Bump - I just want to follow this.

 

[Edward Teach]

Obama 364 !

The 311 realclearpolitics.com shows him leading plus Fl-27, NC-15 and either MO-11 or IN-11.

Eddie the Weatherman
(and I never met Ayers)

 

[Guest]

Obama 364 !

The 311 realclearpolitics.com shows him leading plus Fl-27, NC-15 and either MO-11 or IN-11.

Eddie the Weatherman
(and I never met Ayers)

God, that's sweet.

 

[ishtat]

It's a bit late but maybe we should have run a book on the result.

What is your bet (sorry estimate) of the electoral college result . No prizes except bragging rights.

 

[Liar]

It's a bit late but maybe we should have run a book on the result.

What is your bet (sorry estimate) of the electoral college result . No prizes except bragging rights.

You asked for it.



Obama - 335
CA OR WA NM CO ND MN IA MO WI IL MI OH PA VA NC DC MD DE NJ CT RI MA NY VT NH ME

McCain - 203
AK NV ID UT AZ MT WY DC NE KS OK TX AR LA MS TN KY IN WV SC GA FL

So, a solid win, but no landslide.

Georgia and North Carolina will both be reeeeally close, and the armies of lawyers will get hard-ons, until the rest of the states are sufficiently called and they realize those two states aren't tipping anything.

And then the same lawyers will all descent upon Georgia like the plague, to decide the outcome of their toss-up senate race. Extra important since Ted Stevens got reamed, Franken won his race (thank god, maybe he'll stop trying to be funny now), and the reps will be down to 40 seats if Chambliss is also booted. Won't be decided for weeks. Someone will sue Diebold. Someone else will sue Acorn.

Hugo Chavez will be the first international leader to make a comment, and it will be a weird one.

Someone at the victory party will hand Obama hip hop chains, a pimp hat and a blinged out cup, which he'll wear for a minute or two for laughs.

Fox News will make a Big Deal out of it.

McCain will finally say "Fuck it, time to retire."

Michelle Malkin will say something unbeliveably bigoted. But will not be called on it because she has a nicer rack than Don Imus.

Wyoming will consider secession, until they realize how silly a nation with the same shape as it's flag would look.

Joe The Plumber will try to trademark "Joe The Plumber". Gets sued by these guys.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

LIAR

Obama's coronation is dependent on significant black and kiddie turnouts. Most of the polls that show Obama with a huge victory assume large kiddie support. But there is no evidence its happening. The polls that assume kids will stay home, like they always do, make the race too close to call.

If Obama doesnt win, he and you will look like big fools. The time for boasting is Wednesday.