Please help me see reason here concerning Social security

[Todd]

ON THE BUDGET SURPLUS AND SPENDING SOCIAL SECURITY MONEY


There are two elements to this story. Number one, the budget surplus. Number two, that Social Security trust fund.

First – the surplus. To hear the Democrats tell it all hell has broken loose. The surplus is disappearing and our entire economy is on the brink of collapse.

So – what is the truth?

In February of this year the Bush Administration projected a budget surplus of $281 billion. Right now the projection is $158 billion. Quite a drop, right? Things were a lot worse last year, right? Under Clinton we had it made --- now that George Bush is in office everything is going in the toilet, right? If you just listened to Democrats nobody would blame you if that is what you thought.

The facts get in the way of the Democratic demagoging here.

Let’s go back to Clinton’s last year in office. The Clinton Administration made a prediction of the budget surplus for 2001 last year. That prediction? Well, it was for a surplus of $44 billion. So – Clinton predicted $44 billion. The current prediction is $158 billion. Things are really rotten, aren’t they? Do the math! The current prediction for the 2001 budget surplus is 360 percent higher than that same prediction last year! The sky is falling!

Consider this. What would the Democrats and their fellow-travelers in the media have to say right now in the exact same situation if Gore, rather than Bush, was President? Well – the argument would be that although we are going through a slight economic “correction” right now, we’re still doing quite well with budget surpluses running over three times higher than last year’s prediction. All hail Gore!

Oh, before we move on to this nonsense about the Social Security trust fund, please note that the surplus is scheduled to start increasing again next year. Time for another tax cut.

 

[Todd]

NOW – ON TO THIS NONSENSE ABOUT THE SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND

The latest news out of the Congressional Budget Office is that we are going to have to dip into the Social Security surplus to the tune of about $9 billion to pay our bills in the coming fiscal year. Well, that’s all we need to bring the Democratic demagogues to the microphones. Social Security has always been their favorite method of scaring the beejeezus out of people who don’t think clearly --- old folks and other Democratic voters.

First things first. Just what is the Social Security surplus. It’s that amount of money that the federal government collects in Social Security premiums (taxes) over and above the amount of money that the government has to pay out in Social Security benefits.

OK – so they’re going to have to spend some of the Social Security surplus to meet this year’s budget. The Democrats say its all Bush’s fault and that he is a very, very bad man. Well, guess what? The Democrats under Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and, yes, Bill Clinton have been doing just this – spending the Social Security surplus --FOR YEARS!

Here’s something you won’t get from your regular evening television newscasts. Fact --- every single budget that has come from a Democrat controlled House of Representatives for the past 40 years has called for spending every single penny of the so-called Social Security Surplus. All of it! It was ONLY after the Republicans got control of the House and the Senate – and a stronger grip on the budgeting process – that tax revenues rose so high that the entire Social Security surplus didn’t need to be tapped for current government spending.

Now that puts just a little bit of a different light on the rantings and ravings of the two premier Democrat Class Warlords, Tom Daschle and Richard Gephardt, doesn’t it. On the one hand they’re screaming bloody murder over the news that $9 billion will have to be taken from the Social Security surplus to meet budget needs --- while never mentioning the fact that this is exactly what Democrats have been doing for almost two generations?

OK … so if the Democrats aren’t going to be honest with us and explain that they’ve been spending Social Security surpluses for decades .. how are we supposed to know the truth? Well, my friends --- that’s what the media is for. Those so-called “journalists” at the major newspapers and networks should have been reminding you last night, if not earlier, that the Democrats have always done just what they’re complaining about; spending that Social Security surplus.

So --- did you watch the news last night? I did. Know what? Only ONE news program actually mentioned that Democrats have always spent the entire Social Security surplus. Do you think that solitary network was CBS? How about ABC? Could it have been NBC? Yeah, and Hillary has nice legs. No --- it was the Special Report with Brit Hume on the Fox News Channel.

 

[shadowsource]

please note that the surplus is scheduled to start increasing again next year. Time for another tax cut.

Oh really? It's SCHEDULED to rise, eh? Did God tell you that? Have you looked at the economic figures for 1) The US manufacturing sector 2) The EU 3) Japan 4) Latin America? Bush's growth is like his missile plan, a product of his fervid imagination.

 

[WriterDom]

The democrats are very scared, Todd. They know they couldn't attack Bush right away on the economy, so they ran national ads on the environment trying to make it a major issue. I can't ever remember a party running ads months after an election but they did. The current push is back to scaring senior citizens about social security. And it will only get worse. Once the dark clouds of the Clinton/Gore slowdown roll past, they'll be faced with a mid term election where they could actually lose seats in the house and lose control of the senate.

So expect the partisan whining to increase. Once again, they have no solutions but to stay the course from the 1930s. But it's a different world. Just as the Moms and Pops being invested in the stock market has changed the Stock market from what is was in 1972.

 

[shadowsource]

Really - that's wonderful!

Just as the Moms and Pops being invested in the stock market has changed the Stock market from what is was in 1972.

A bunch of Moms and Pops can change the nature of speculation. That's why I'm out of the market until reality has fully reasserted itself. You just keep on pouring your bucks in, big boy! Then you'll appreciate Social Security.

Todd: Democrats have always done just what they’re complaining about; spending that Social Security surplus

There was a sea change in the late 90s, when the money actually seemd to be at hand, whereby BOTH parties, and all candidates, agreed that the SS money should be safeguarded. This was a sensible position. The Democrats learned about deficits from watching Ronnie Reagan bust the budget wide open so many times, forcing the country to borrow so much money that the economy was hampered. We're still paying 11% of our taxes in debt service. Using the SS money to pay down the debt frees capital for the private sector, lowering interest rates. This is something Republicans USED to advocate. I guess the fact that Democrats now favor it means that it's wrong. Oh well. I;m beginning to understand you guys. Whee! Geezer Hunt!

 

[WriterDom]

Time will tell. My prediction is Dow 14,000 by Jan 31. That might be a little optimistic, but I'd be happy with 13,000. Could drop as low as 9500 before November.


AJ/MC sees a possible 6000 by then. I don't think we have a prediction from Shadowsource yet.

 

[shadowsource]

I don't predict the Dow

Or I wouldn't have missed that empty, transient 40% increase last spring. But I know a swamp when I see one. And I don't gamble, least of all on crap. Most investors now are so far from fundamentalism that it's truly frightening.

 

[shadowsource]

My gut

tells me AJ/MC is closer on this one than you are.