jaF0
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'Phelia's Comin' For Ireland
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neci
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jaF0
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017
...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING BUT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 35.5W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. Ophelia is currently
meandering, but a east-northeast motion is expected to begin
tonight. A east-northeast motion is forecast to continue after that
with a substantial increase in forward speed by this weekend. On
the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will remain south of the
Azores through Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Ophelia is expected to remain a hurricane for the next
couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
Category 2: 96-110 mph 83-95 kt 154-177 km/h
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017
...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING BUT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 35.5W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. Ophelia is currently
meandering, but a east-northeast motion is expected to begin
tonight. A east-northeast motion is forecast to continue after that
with a substantial increase in forward speed by this weekend. On
the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will remain south of the
Azores through Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Ophelia is expected to remain a hurricane for the next
couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
Category 2: 96-110 mph 83-95 kt 154-177 km/h
Lancecastor
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Hoping to get blown offshore, pip?
lickitandstickit
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jaF0
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jaF0
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KEY MESSAGES:
1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local
impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
issued by the Met Office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 30.7N 34.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 31.2N 33.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 32.2N 31.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 33.7N 27.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 36.0N 23.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 45.0N 14.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/0000Z 56.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local
impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
issued by the Met Office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 30.7N 34.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 31.2N 33.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 32.2N 31.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 33.7N 27.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 36.0N 23.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 45.0N 14.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/0000Z 56.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
AngusBridie
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jaF0
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Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
----------------------
In fact, so rare, I'm hearing this is the first times it's ever happened.
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
----------------------
In fact, so rare, I'm hearing this is the first times it's ever happened.
jaF0
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DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the clear eye of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 23.7 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A continued
northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia will
continue to pass south and east of the Azores tonight.
Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115
mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in
strength is expected tonight, but the hurricane is likely to become
post-tropical by early Monday morning, if not sooner. Ophelia is
forecast to remain a powerful cyclone with hurricane-force winds
as it approaches Ireland.
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the clear eye of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 23.7 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A continued
northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia will
continue to pass south and east of the Azores tonight.
Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115
mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in
strength is expected tonight, but the hurricane is likely to become
post-tropical by early Monday morning, if not sooner. Ophelia is
forecast to remain a powerful cyclone with hurricane-force winds
as it approaches Ireland.
LIVINRFANTASIES
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Denny
Don't worry Trump will be there for you. Ireland is the 54th state, right?
Don't worry Trump will be there for you. Ireland is the 54th state, right?
richard_daily
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I heard that she's a gusher.
Sean
We'll see.
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Three dead in the republic. Trees and power lines down all over the place.
MonaLittle
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Stay safe, Irish Friends. 
tallladiesman
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It was rough here but the worst seems to be past now. Munster got hit hard. The roof came off Cork City football ground and around 500,000 with no electric right now